The Science and Technology Horizon Key Trends The trends presented in this appendix are drawn from a wide range of authoritative sources

citing well referenced examples of science and technology developments on the horizon. As such, extensive use was made of the UK Government Horizon Scanning Centre (HSC) outputs – most notably the Delta and Sigma horizon scans of emerging trends and

developments. Other key sources used extensively included MIT‘s Technology Review, the BT Technology Timeline and TechCast – an acknowledged resource pooling expert

knowledge on science and technology forecasts.

Where possible we have tried to remain true to the source definition of the trend or development – except where we feel further clarification or expansion is required.

Science Policy, Strategy and Funding

R&D Takes Centre Stage: Germany is investing EUR900M by 2010 to fund R&D projects commissioned by medium-sized business and EUR65M to expand and develop research infrastructure. Norway is set to increase its Research and Innovation Fund capital by EUR685M and create over 200 new research positions each with EUR90,000 funding. France is committing EUR731M in 2009-10 to refurbish universities and

research institutions. China's 10Tn Yuan 2009-11stimulus package includes major investments in science and technology, including "key research projects related to enlarging the domestic market.‖ (University World News)75_.

Global Diffusion of Science76: Over the next 50 years, the long US dominance of a wide range of fields in science and technology is likely to end as the global scientific playing field becomes flatter and more diverse (Sigma Scan)

Global Standards for Global Science77: Standards provide the language in which innovation is written. Until recently, the assumption has been that USA and Europe would dominate standards discussions. However, with the growth of Asian economies, the scale of their markets and the huge investments being made in science technology, their power and influence in standards discussions will change, as will the technologies they allow into their markets. (Sigma Scan)

Growth of Chinese Science and Technology78PhD production in China increased fiftyfold between 1986 and 1999, from less than 200 to more than 7,000 degrees granted annually. By some estimates, China now graduates more engineers than the rest of the world combined. Peking already appears as a top institution in the THE/QS World University Rankings, at 50 in 2008, and there are six Chinese and four Hong Kong universities in the top 200 (Sigma Scan).

Brazil: A Potential Scientific Leader79Brazil could emerge as one of the world's leading scientific powers by 2025, if it pursues a policy of intelligent investment and maximises the benefits of international collaboration (Sigma Scan).

Convergence on a Theory of Everything80: Experimental physicists are seeking a single underlying theory that describes all the fundamental workings of the universe, from subatomic particles ruled by quantum mechanics to the gravitational forces

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explained by Einstein's general theory of relativity. Our universe is made up of building blocks much smaller than atoms. These particles, such as electrons, leptons, and quarks, are governed by three forces: electromagnetism and strong and weak nuclear forces. A fourth force – gravity - remains harder to explain and integrate.

The goal is a Grand Unified Theory, a 'theory of everything' that ties together all of these phenomena in a single equation or expression that explains the nature and behaviour of all matter. Building such a theory, Einstein suggested, would be like 'reading the mind of God'. This theory of everything could illuminate some of the biggest mysteries at the heart of physics, from the origins of space and time to the secrets of black holes and the cause of the universe's accelerating expansion (Sigma Scan).

Medicine, Biology and Biogenetics

NBIC-convergence: NBIC-convergence is the ongoing unification

of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technologies and cognitive science evident in applications such as the nanovaccine. The developments in these fields no longer merely complement each other, indeed the fields are gradually merging into one (Fontela and de Castro81)

Risk of Major Global Health Pandemic: With aviation linking an ever shrinking and crowded world, the risk of pandemics is rising. On July 14th 2009 the British government warned that the number of swine flu cases could eventually affect one in two people in the UK82 More potent infections are more probably a matter of when and not if.

(Department of Health)

Synthetic Biology: Synthetic biology involves designing and building biological

components to perform functions such as producing drugs or fuels. Synthetic biologists are envisioning creating bacteria with artificial chromosomes to enable them to harvest sunlight into fuel, clean up industrial water and work as bio-surveillance agents to track a range of activities. It is predicted that synthetic biology will aid in creating new life forms in biology, but will also be applied in electronics and nano-biotechnology83(Foundation for Biotechnology Awareness and Education).

Growth of Biomedical and Genetic Enhancement84. University of California Los Angeles Professor Gregory Stock argues that ―The Race for Biomedical and Genetic Enhancement will-in the Twenty-First Century-be what the Space Race was in the Previous Century. Humanity is ready to pursue biomedical and genetic enhancement, and the money is already being invested,‖ but, he says, "We‘ll also fret about these things-because we‘re human, and it‘s what we do."

New Converging Markets (food, pharmaceuticals, drugs, cosmetics)85: The boundaries between market segments are increasingly blurring and will continue to dissolve. Food infused with medicine is one such area if application. The total Europe and US market for heart health food and drinks is predicted to be $7.4bn (€5.6bn) in 2010. The comparable figures for heart health pharmaceuticals are $105bn (€80.8bn) respectively (Nutra-Ingredients).

Biological Machines: A giant flower beetle flies about, veering up and down, left and right. However, the insect isn't a pest, and it isn't steering its own path. An implanted

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receiver, microcontroller, microbattery, and six carefully placed electrodes allow an engineer to control the bug wirelessly. By remotely delivering jolts of electricity to its brain and wing muscles, the engineer can make the cyborg beetle take off, turn, or stop midflight.86 (DNA India)

Lab on a Chip / Rapid Bioassays: Global markets for better means of testing personal and public health and monitoring the environment are emerging rapidly. Novel biochips to detect and analyze genes and proteins are enabling very fast tests for diseases and pathogens. The specificity and sophistication of these advanced bioassays has

increased to the extent that some lab-on-a-chip systems can even perform as small- scale laboratories using miniaturized devices. These types of bioassays could identify or eliminate threats to public health, significantly improve patient outcomes, and accurately detect pathogens in the environment and the food supply (Rand Corp.)87.

Systems Biology: Observers of the life science enterprise agree that, while genomics has present priority, proteomics represents the wave of the future. ―Some groups are beginning to look at shotgun sequencing approaches to microbial ecosystems. Then their attention moves naturally and quickly from genes to proteins,‖ says Donald

Kennedy, editor-in-chief of Science-Mag and president, emeritus of Stanford University. ―We‘ll see a convergence between what we learned from genomic analysis and what we know about the networks that link gene products — the proteins that genes produce — through signalling functions within the cell.88‖(Science-Mag)

Haptics Technology: Haptic technology interfaces via touch by

applying forces, vibrations, and/or motions to the user (effectively mechanical

stimulation). Computerized image analysis is used to extract information from images. It can be used in medical applications to determine the size of organs or to build 3-D models of organs before surgery. For example, a PhD candidate at Uppsala University, Sweden, has developed new technology to make it easier to diagnose and plan the treatment of cancer. He used haptics technology to develop new interactive methods ‗where the mouse and keyboard are replaced by a pen-like three-dimensional mouse that enables the user to feel the virtual organs89.‘ (Uppsala University, Sweden)

Neuroprosthetics: Researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, have

demonstrated how rhesus monkeys with electrodes implanted in their brains used their thoughts to control a computer cursor. Once the animals had mastered the task, they could repeat it proficiently day after day. The new study, which should apply to humans, provides hope that physically disabled people may one day be able to operate advanced prosthetics in a natural, effortless way. (The IEEE)90

Biomechatronics91 is the merging of man with machine -- like the cyborg of science