SCOPE OF THE PROJECTSCOPE OF THE PROJECT - PGPM 31

SCOPE OF THE PROJECT

Name of the project

Name of the project :: Metro Rail Project ProposalMetro Rail Project Proposal

Looccaattiioonn :: MMuummbbaaii, , IInnddiiaa

Prroojjeecct t ddeeffiinniittiioonn :: TThhe e GGoovveerrnnmmeennt t oof f IInnddiia a hhaas s ddeecciiddeed d tthhe e iinnccrreeaassee

the

the infrastructure facility infrastructure facility in India, so as to incrin India, so as to increase economic growth of the nation byease economic growth of the nation by

increasing the import

increasing the import & export facility& export facility..

Prroojjeecct t dduurraattiioonn :: 3377665 5 ddaayyss

Tyyppe e oof f ccoonnttrraacctt :: IItteem m rraatte e ccoonnttrraacctt

Prroojjeecct t ffuunnddiinngg :: FFiinnaanncce e aarrrraannggeed d bby y tthhe e GGoovveerrnnmmeennt t oof f IInnddiiaa

Deessiiggn n rreessppoonnssiibbiilliittyy :: RReennoovvaattiioon n oof f eexxiissttiinng g ssttrruuccttuurrees s nneeeedds s tto o bbee

considered considered

Prriicce e fflluuccttuuaattiioonn :: NNoot t aalllloowwaabbllee

Exxtteennssiioon n oof f ttiimmee :: NNoot t ppeerrmmiitttteedd

Liiqquuiiddaatteed d ddaammaaggeess :: 22% % oof f tthhe e ccoonnttrraacct t vvaalluue e ppeer r wweeeek k oof f tthhe e pprroojjeecctt

Limit upto 15% of the contract value Limit upto 15% of the contract value

Project Summary Project Summary

The project considered for analysis is the construction of an underground corridor for metro rail The project considered for analysis is the construction of an underground corridor for metro rail operations in the capital city of an emerging economic nation in South Asia. Phase-I of the project is operations in the capital city of an emerging economic nation in South Asia. Phase-I of the project is about 65 kms with 59 stations. The estimated capital cost of Phase-I is about INR 105 billion. The about 65 kms with 59 stations. The estimated capital cost of Phase-I is about INR 105 billion. The project

project under under study study for for this this research research work work is is a a part part of of Phase Phase I. I. The The scope scope of of work work is is the the design design andand constr

constructiouction n of a of a 6.6 6.6 km km undergunderground metro corridoround metro corridor with r with six undergrosix underground statiound stations and ns and a twin a twin tunneltunnel system. The underground stations are referred to as S

system. The underground stations are referred to as S11, , SS22,…. S,…. S66. Here S. Here S66 is the terminal stationis the terminal station equipp

equipped with an over-run tunnel (wheed with an over-run tunnel (where an up re an up train can be convertrain can be converted to a down train)ted to a down train). . The clienThe client is at is a public sector company

public sector company floated jointlyfloated jointly by the State by the State and and Central Central Government.Government.

The e prprinincicipapal l concontrtracactotor r is is a a JoiJoint nt VeVentnturure e (JV(JV) ) of of ththreree fore foreigeign contn contraractctorors and twos and two domestic contractors. The type of contract is a Design Build Turnkey (DBT) where the principal domestic contractors. The type of contract is a Design Build Turnkey (DBT) where the principal contra

contractor is ctor is requirrequired to ed to design the design the undergrunderground corridor and execute the project. The project cost for ound corridor and execute the project. The project cost for the execution of 6.6 kms is about INR 18 billion. The contract period is about five years (exclusively the execution of 6.6 kms is about INR 18 billion. The contract period is about five years (exclusively for execution).

for execution).

Table 1:

Table 1: Major ActMajor Activities and theiivities and their Time Estimates r Time Estimates in thein the UndUndererggrroundound Corridor Construction Project (Terminal Station

Corridor Construction Project (Terminal Station SS6)6)

Activit

Activit DescriptiDescripti ImmediateImmediate DuratioDuratio A

A FeasibFeasibilit ilit studiesstudies -- 18751875 00 18751875 00 18751875 B

ES: Early Start;: Early Start; EFEF: Early Finish;: Early Finish; LSLS: Late Start;: Late Start; LFLF: Late Finish: Late Finish

METHODOLOGY METHODOLOGY

Risk

Risk Analysis Analysis by by Expected Expected Value Method Value Method (EVM)(EVM)

Assume a network of

Assume a network of determideterministic time and cost. We nistic time and cost. We also assume that the also assume that the criticritical pathcal path model network has “N” activities which are indicated by j = (1…… N) and there are “M” risk model network has “N” activities which are indicated by j = (1…… N) and there are “M” risk sources indicated by i = (1…..M). We extend the work of Roetzheim (1988) and Nicholas sources indicated by i = (1…..M). We extend the work of Roetzheim (1988) and Nicholas (2007), and explain, in this section, the concept of risk analysis by the Expected Value (2007), and explain, in this section, the concept of risk analysis by the Expected Value Method (EVM).

Method (EVM).

Define the variables as follows:

METHODOLOGY METHODOLOGY

Risk

Risk Analysis Analysis by by Expected Expected Value Method Value Method (EVM)(EVM)

Assume a network of

Method (EVM).

Define the variables as follows:

LLijij : : LLiikkeelliihhooood d oof f iithth risk source for jrisk source for jthth activityactivity WWijij : : WWeeiigghhttaagge e oof f iithth risk source for jrisk source for jthth activityactivity IIijij : : IImmppaacct t oof f iithth risk source for jrisk source for jthth activityactivity CLFCLF j j : : CoCompmposositite e LiLikekelilihohood od FaFactctor or fofor r jjthth activityactivity CIFCIF j j : : CoCompmpososiite te IImpmpacact t FFacactotor r ffor or jjthth activityactivity BTEBTE j j : : BBaasse e TTimime e EEssttiimmaatte e ffoor r jjthth activityactivity BCEBCE j j : : BBaasse e CCoosst t EEssttiimmaatte e ffoor r jjthth activityactivity

CCCC j j : : CCoorrrreeccttiivve e CCoosst t ffoor r jjthth activityactivity CTCT j j : : CCoorrrreeccttiivve e TTiimme e ffoor r jjthth activityactivity RCRC j j : : RRiissk k CCoosst t ffoor r jjthth activityactivity

RTRT j j : : RRiissk k TTiimme e ffoor r jjthth activityactivity ECEC j j : : EExxppeecctteed d CCoosst t ffoor r jjthth activityactivity ETET j j : : EExxppeecctteed d TTiimme e ffoor r jjthth activityactivity

Base se titime me esestitimamate te (BT(BTE) E) of of ththe e prprojeoject ct is is ththe e esestimtimatated ed babasisic c prprojoject ect durduratiationon deter

determined by critical path mined by critical path method of the method of the projeproject ct networnetwork. Similarlyk. Similarly, the , the estimaestimated basic ted basic costcost of project determined by the cost for each activity is termed as the base cost estimate (BCE).

of project determined by the cost for each activity is termed as the base cost estimate (BCE).

The BTE and BCE data of all the major activities of the project have been obtained as per the The BTE and BCE data of all the major activities of the project have been obtained as per the detailed construction drawings, method statement and specifications for the works collected detailed construction drawings, method statement and specifications for the works collected from the project. The corresponding corrective time (CT) or the time required correcting an from the project. The corresponding corrective time (CT) or the time required correcting an activity in case of a failure due to one or more risk sources for each activity and their activity in case of a failure due to one or more risk sources for each activity and their corresponding corrective cost (CC) have been estimated based on the personal experiences and corresponding corrective cost (CC) have been estimated based on the personal experiences and have been tabulated. An activity may have several risk sources each having its own likelihood have been tabulated. An activity may have several risk sources each having its own likelihood of occurrence. The value of likelihood should range between 0 through 1.

of occurrence. The value of likelihood should range between 0 through 1.

The likelihood of failure (L

The likelihood of failure (Lijij) defined above, of the identified risk sources of each) defined above, of the identified risk sources of each act

activiivity ty were were obtobtaineained d thrthrougough h a a quesquestiotionnainnaire re s s u u r r v v e e y y . . The The tartarget get resrespondpondentents s werweree experts

experts and profeand professionassionals involls involved in and associated wived in and associated with the project under anth the project under analysis and alsoalysis and also other similar proj

other similar projects. The ects. The correscorresponding weightagponding weightage e (W(Wijij) of each activity has also been) of each activity has also been obt

obtainained ed frofrom thm the e feefeedbacdback k of of the the quesquestiotionnannaire ire sursurvey vey circirculculateated d amoamong ng expeexpertsrts. . TheThe summation of the

summation of the weightages should be equal to 1.weightages should be equal to 1.

M M

∑

∑ WWijij = = 1 1 ffoor r aalll l j j ( ( j j = = 1 1 ……. . NN) ) ……. . ((11)) ii 11

The weightages can be based on local priority (LP) where the weightages of all the The weightages can be based on local priority (LP) where the weightages of all the sub-activities of a particular activity equal 1. Also, weightages can be based on global priority activities of a particular activity equal 1. Also, weightages can be based on global priority (GP) wh

(GP) where the weightere the weightages of all the activiages of all the activities of the projecties of the project equal 1. t equal 1. The mean of all theThe mean of all the responses should desirably be considered for analysis. Inconsistent responses can be modified responses should desirably be considered for analysis. Inconsistent responses can be modified using a second round questionnaire survey using the Delphi technique. The next step is to using a second round questionnaire survey using the Delphi technique. The next step is to compute the risk cost (RC) and risk time (RT) of the activities of the project. RC and RT for compute the risk cost (RC) and risk time (RT) of the activities of the project. RC and RT for an activity can be obtained from the following relationship:

an activity can be obtained from the following relationship:

Risk Cost f

Risk Cost for actior activityvity j (RC)j (RC) j j = (CC)= (CC) j j x x LL j j for all j.for all j. ……… … ((22)) Risk Time for activity j (RT)

Risk Time for activity j (RT) j j = (CT)= (CT) j j x x LL j j for all jfor all j ……… … ((33))

The total risk time for an activity is the summation of the risk time of all the sub The total risk time for an activity is the summation of the risk time of all the sub activities along the critical path.

activities along the critical path.

The

The liklikelielihood hood (L(Lijij) ) of of alall l ririsk sk sosoururces for each ces for each acactitivivity j ty j cacan n be be comcombibinened d anandd expressed as a single composite likelihood factor (CLF)

expressed as a single composite likelihood factor (CLF) j j. The weightages (W. The weightages (Wijij) of the risk ) of the risk sources of the activities are multiplied with their respective likelihoods to obtain the CLF sources of the activities are multiplied with their respective likelihoods to obtain the CLF for the activity.

for the activity.

The impact of a risk can be expressed in terms of the effect caused by the risk to the The impact of a risk can be expressed in terms of the effect caused by the risk to the time and cost of an activity. This time impact and cost impact can be considered as the risk time and cost of an activity. This time impact and cost impact can be considered as the risk time and risk cost of the activity. A similar computation as that of likelihood can be done for time and risk cost of the activity. A similar computation as that of likelihood can be done for obt

obtainaining a ing a singsingle le combcombineined d compcomposiosite te impimpact act facfactor tor (CI(CIF) F) by by conconsidesiderinring g the the weigweightehtedd average as per

average as per the relationship given below:the relationship given below:

M M Composite Impact Factor (CIF)

Composite Impact Factor (CIF) j j = = ∑∑ IIijij WWijij ………(5)(5) ii 11

M M 0 ≤ I

0 ≤ Iijij ≤ 1 and≤ 1 and ∑∑WWijij = 1 for all j= 1 for all j..

ii 11

Risk consequence or severity can be expressed as a function of risk likelihood and Risk consequence or severity can be expressed as a function of risk likelihood and ris

risk impak impact. ct. Thus the numeThus the numerirical valcal value will ranue will range from 0 to ge from 0 to 1. This seve1. This severitrity can also bey can also be expressed in terms of qualitative rating as “no severity” for value 0 and “extremely high expressed in terms of qualitative rating as “no severity” for value 0 and “extremely high severity” for value 1. The numerical value of the Risk Severity (RS) is obtained from the severity” for value 1. The numerical value of the Risk Severity (RS) is obtained from the below mentioned relationship:

below mentioned relationship:

Risk Conseq

Risk Consequence / Severiuence / Severityty (RS)(RS) j j = L= L j j x Ix I j j ffoor r aalll l j j ……... . ((66))

The risk consequence derived from this equation measures how serious the risk is to The risk consequence derived from this equation measures how serious the risk is to project performance.

project performance. Small Small values values represent unrepresent unimportant risks important risks that that might be might be ignored and ignored and largelarge values represent important risks that need to be treated.

values represent important risks that need to be treated.

The expecte

The expected d coscost t (EC(EC)) j j and and expeexpectected d timtime e (ET(ET)) j j for each for each proproject activiject activity ty andand subs

subsequeequently ntly the the comcomputaputatiotion n of of the the expeexpectected d proprojecject ct cost ost and and timtime we was as carcarrieried od out ut frfromom the concept of the expected value (EV) of a decision tree analysis.

the concept of the expected value (EV) of a decision tree analysis.

Expected value (EV) = probability

Expected value (EV) = probability of occurrence (p) [higher payoff] of occurrence (p) [higher payoff] + (1-p) [lower pay+ (1-p) [lower payoff].off].

Expected Cost (EC)

Expected Cost (EC) j j = = LL j j (BCE(BCE j j + + CCCC j j) + (1-L) + (1-L j j)) BCEBCE j j = BCE= BCE j j + CC+ CC j j (L(L j j))

= BCE

= BCE j j + RC+ RC j j ffoor r aalll l jj. . …………... . ((77)) Expected Time (ET)

Expected Time (ET) j j = L= L j j (BTE(BTE j j + CT+ CT j j) + (1-L) + (1-L j j) BTE) BTE j j

= BTE

= BTE j j + CT+ CT j j (L(L j j) ) = = BBTTEE j j + RT+ RT j j ffoor r aalll l jj. . …………. (. (88))

CASE ANALYSIS CASE ANALYSIS

The sample stretch under analysis consists of a 530 metre(m) cut and cover tunnel The sample stretch under analysis consists of a 530 metre(m) cut and cover tunnel connecting station S

connecting station S55 and Sand S66, a 290m S, a 290m S66 station box and a 180m cut and cover over runstation box and a 180m cut and cover over run tunnel adjoining the S

tunnel adjoining the S66 station box. Sstation box. S66 station being the terminal station, the down trainsstation being the terminal station, the down trains towards this station after leaving station S

towards this station after leaving station S55 will travel through the 530m cut and cover will travel through the 530m cut and cover tunnel and

tunnel and enter the platforms of the terminal statienter the platforms of the terminal station Son S66. After the commuters vacate the train. After the commuters vacate the train at this terminal station, this down train will travel through the 180m over run tunnel and will at this terminal station, this down train will travel through the 180m over run tunnel and will be

be converted into an up line train which will travel from converted into an up line train which will travel from station Sstation S66 to Sto S11..

The activities of the sample stretch under analysis consist of the installation and erection The activities of the sample stretch under analysis consist of the installation and erection of temporary supporting and retaining structures to enable construction by cut and cover of temporary supporting and retaining structures to enable construction by cut and cover technology and for the construction of permanent structures like tunnels and station boxes technology and for the construction of permanent structures like tunnels and station boxes which are RCC single boxes / twin boxes for tunnels and RCC boxes with intermediate which are RCC single boxes / twin boxes for tunnels and RCC boxes with intermediate concourse slab for station boxes.

concourse slab for station boxes.

We have considered some basic assumptions during the analysis. These assumptions We have considered some basic assumptions during the analysis. These assumptions are (i) the maximum cost overrun permissible is 25 % of the basic cost estimate beyond which are (i) the maximum cost overrun permissible is 25 % of the basic cost estimate beyond which th

the e prprojojecect t bebecocomemes s leless ss fefeasasibible le anand d (i(ii) i) ththe e mamaxiximumum m pepermrmisissisiblble e titime me ovovererrurunn for infrastructure projects is about 30% of the base time estimate, beyond which the feasibility for infrastructure projects is about 30% of the base time estimate, beyond which the feasibility of the project reduces.

of the project reduces.

Table 2: Identification and Classification of Risks Involved in the Project Table 2: Identification and Classification of Risks Involved in the Project

S. NoNo. . RisRisk k ClassificationClassification Nomenclature Nomenclature

Risk Risk Description Description 1

1 FFPPR R FeasibiFeasibilitylity Project RiProject Risk sk 2

2 PEPR PEPR 11 Pre execution Project Risk – Design RisksPre execution Project Risk – Design Risks 3

3 PEPR PEPR 22 Pre execution Project Risk – Technology RisksPre execution Project Risk – Technology Risks 4

4 EPR EPR 11 Execution Project Risk – Risks in trafficExecution Project Risk – Risks in traffic 5

5 EPR EPR 22 Risks in utility diversion worksRisks in utility diversion works 6

6 EPR EPR 33 Risks in survey worksRisks in survey works 7

7 EPR EPR 44 Risks in soldier piling and king piling works.Risks in soldier piling and king piling works.

8 EPR EPR 55 Risks in timber lagging works.Risks in timber lagging works.

9 EPR EPR 66 Risks in soil excavation worksRisks in soil excavation works 10

10 EPR EPR 77 Risks in rock excavation worksRisks in rock excavation works 11

11 EPR EPR 88 Risks in installation of construction decksRisks in installation of construction decks 12

12 EPR EPR 99 Risks in installation of steel strutsRisks in installation of steel struts 13

13 EPR EPR 1010 Risks in installation of rock anchorsRisks in installation of rock anchors 14

14 EPR EPR 1111 Risks in shotcreting and rock bolting worksRisks in shotcreting and rock bolting works

In document PGPM 31_NICMAR Assignments (Page 21-56)