Although there is much rethinking evident about Namibia’s water supply strategy, the documents available are laden with a variety of proclamations about water that are peculiar to living in a semi-desert environment but have little bearing on the real economic issues of water resource allocation, however much they may support the political allocation of water and the rhetoric of urgency about investing in water resource development. Deserts warp the thinking of planners who typically come from humid areas. The following dubious pronouncements are found in the reports cited herein (Lange 1997a:1; Ashley et al. 1995):
− water is the scarcest resource;
− water is the single most important constraint in economic development;
− water is the reason Namibia is so sparsely populated.
These are three extreme statements repeatedly found in the rhetoric of arid areas, and usually fall apart on further examination. For example, if water is the scarcest resource, it should also be the highest priced, but it isn’t, and if it is not the highest price resource, it is not the most important constraint on development. The point is that water can be provided in almost every situation imaginable at costs which suffice to allow it to be used efficiently for almost any purpose. If development is constrained, it is usually for other reasons. In other words, abundant water in Namibia would not guarantee economic development or a vast population. The UNIDO (1994) review of Namibian industrial development gives the economy a very positive review without once mentioning water as a constraint or even as an important input, but only calling attention to the fact that water is second only to education in commitments of foreign aid to the Namibian government.
As if to refute these statements, Lange (1997a:24) notes that the price of water would not have an impact on business decisions in the manufacturing and service sectors because water costs are a very small share of total costs. These sectors represent the
7
high value uses of water that one would expect to grow in a water short economy, if there is such an economy.
One also finds policies and practices in evidence that reflect the desert psychology which afflicts water resource engineers in this environment:
− the practice of giving huge subsidies to the most profligate water users and then
decrying their inclination to waste water;
− the failure to price water appropriately;
− the protectiveness shown toward heavy users such as irrigators.
These practices are not rational, if water is as precious as the rhetoric says it is.
Indeed, if water were truly a scarce resource, the nation’s economy would pay a great deal more attention to the value added per m3 of water in the various sectors. One finds that the N$ added per m3 varies from 4.7 in commercial agriculture to 538.3 in the service sector. In mining the value is 40 and in manufacturing 132 (Lange 1997a: Table 6). If water were truly a limiting factor and it were priced at its full incremental costs, such extravagant variations in value added would not persist. The low value uses would be squeezed out, and high value uses would expand. It might be argued that water could not be transferred easily from one use to another but it has been pointed out above that Namibia has the plumbing that would allow extensive transfers of water, if users could be compensated for giving up “their” water. This disparity points up the practice of subsidising water use, but also suggests that water may not be as limiting as the mythology claims. Appropriate models could show how water would be used in the Namibian economy if its price were equal to its full incremental cost.
Namibia (and also Botswana) have in recent years shown a more rational psychology toward their desert conditions, as reflected in new attitudes toward demand management and recycling and in the abandonment of schemes like Botswana’s Southern Okavango Integrated Water Development Project. That Namibia’s interest in (diverting water from) the Kavango may be irrational is suggested by at least one observer. Economist Fred Greiner (1997:1) states that “Phase II of this study should analyse in detail the feasibility of using desalinated water to cover peak water consumption in Windhoek when needed, making use of existing infrastructure (the pipeline from Swakopmund to Arandis and the pipeline from Karibib to Von Bach Dam).” Greiner also observes that Windhoek can tap mines in the Tsumeb area for water supplies.
The outcomes of models simulating and projecting the water sector will be hugely affected by the mindset chosen. The opposite of the desert mindset is the “water is not different” mindset, which treats water the same as any other resource that is to be efficiently developed among competing demands for capital and to be efficiently allocated among competing demands for use. If water is not different, drought losses are not something to be avoided at all costs but are to be approached as a problem in minimising the costs of drought losses (and the nation is not willing to go to any extreme to provide abundant and cheap water supplies at all times). This more positive mindset is reflected in many of the practices Namibia is currently pursuing with respect to water pricing and reuse.
There are at least four possible levels or domains for water resource modelling:
− the river basin,
− the water supply system,
− the nation.
Developing a model of the economy and a sub-model of the water sector could be appropriate.
− The Natural Resource Accounting project in Namibia essentially does this for the
natural resource sector and is using the water sector as a case study. Their model would not necessarily be an input-output model, but would contain much of the same information as a simulation study of the water sector. The Natural Resource Accounting project identifies appropriate policy issues and variables for a simulation study of the water sector.
− Namibia is in the rare position of not having any perennial river basins within its borders, and of having a very meagre hydrology in its ephemeral basins, with 2% of rainfall going to runoff and 1% going to inflow. Multiple purpose river basin management may not be an issue because there is not the competition between flood control, navigation, recreation, and water supply to be found in perennial river basins.
However Namibia does have extensive water supply systems that link ephemeral streams, boreholes and water carriers and which might be appropriate subjects for systems modelling. The central and north central systems in particular are extensive and complex and are the focus of consideration for future investment. The feasibility study of the Okavango-Grootfontein link of the national water carrier (Water Transfer Consultants 1997) and the reconnaissance of the north central system underway (DWA 1997) should be rich sources of data for modelling.
− Namibia also possesses the Water Transfer Consultants Model and a Water
Resources Yield Model developed for its Northern Water Carrier Study. Each of these models can be rich sources for further modelling (DWA 1997).
Approaching these systems with optimisation in mind, through interconnection and operating strategies, might reveal possibilities for increasing yields merely by changing operating rules or introducing drought emergency routines (as Daniel Shear has done in the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Water Supply Study, see McGarry 1983). In another case, the California water system is able to move water between the ends of the state merely by altering diversions along the way.
− The supply system model could capture spatial details of a region with urban supply nodes, rural domestic supply points and agricultural-industrial supply nodes. As always, there is a question of how much detail would be cost effective in the ultimate model.
− It may be appropriate to consider modelling water allocations in the international
Kavango Basin in view of the Global Environment Facility8 collaboration with
OKACOM to study the basin in Angola, Namibia and Botswana.
8
The GEF is a financial mechanism that provides grants to assist developing countries to address environmental problems to transcend international borders in four areas: global climate change, pollution and overexploitation of international waters, destruction of biological diversity, and depletion of the
− If international allocations were to be studied, then the study would necessarily explore the potential for international disagreements and the process for their resolution. This would necessarily consider the elements of water retention and diversion and the vulnerability of water quality and ecosystem integrity to these influences. There would be an opportunity to consider the basin as an integrated resource management unit to be managed for the joint welfare of the people in Angola, Botswana and Namibia. The institutional obstacles to any of this would be formidable, but the prospect cannot be dismissed on the basis of what we know now.9
National models offer opportunities to study the variables affecting water demands and uses. By modelling demand as a function of population, industry, GDP/capita, agriculture, urbanisation and efficiency of use (see Ashley et al. 1995) it is possible to capture the texture of the water resource policy issues and to begin to manipulate outcomes. Among the issues that could be studied by a simulation of national demand are:
− the feedback loop between demand and supply via pricing;10
− reallocation of supplies as a function of system operation with interconnection and changes in pricing/efficient use;
− shifts in the location of population growth through altering the location of
investments in infrastructure and relentlessly pursuing marginal cost pricing of all public services;
− introduction of other policy factors such as those affecting desertification (NAPCOD 1996).11
A national model might be an appropriate place to compare a strict efficiency mindset against the choice of water politics dominated by desert psychology to the consequences for investment and allocation decisions.
5
Conclusions
Assumptions and objectives are crucial in shaping the outcome of water supply studies. Models perform in response to their assumptions and objectives. This report has reviewed a number of recent developments in water resource policy and planning in Namibia. By taking them into account, in its models IIASA can study the implications of alternative policies on the development of water resources and their environmental consequences.
ozone layer. The GEF is jointly implemented by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the World Bank (http://www.worldbank. org/html/pic/GEF.html).
9
Namibia has plans to apply to GEF for funds to conduct an environmental impact assessment of the Okavango basin over a six-year period and which may be a step toward integrated management of the basin. (Interview with Shirley Bethune, DWA, Feb. 11, 1998.).
10
The Averch-Johnson effect could be explored, in which utilities which fail to marginal cost price are unable to recover costs of expansion and enter a loop of lowering prices to stimulate demand which creates the need for expanding the system.
11
Namibian Programme to Combat Desertification was established in 1994 and is a joint initiative of the Desert Research Foundation of Namibia, the Ministry of Environment and Tourism, and the Ministry of
The critical objectives and assumptions with regard to water development strategies in Namibia may be stated as the following questions:
− Will water resources be developed according to the principles of economic
efficiency, or will desert psychology and “water is different” prevail?12
− Will the greatest portion of water supplies be priced to users according to full cost recovery principles now adopted by Namibia?
− Will the potential gains from recycling of water supplies be fully exploited?
− Will the potential be exploited for increasing yields of the integrated water supply systems through optimal configuration and optimal operating rules, including drought emergency planning and the gains from optimal conjunctive use of the surface and groundwater supplies?
− What is the role of international agreement in shaping Namibia’s water joint futures on the Kavango River or, potentially, other international rivers?
The consequences of the answers to these questions can be vast in terms of the investment Namibia makes in water resources in the next 50 years, and in terms of the consequences for the shared freshwater resources of the southern African region.
− If Namibia were to act under the influence of a desert psychology, it would spend
immensely more resources on water development and have a far greater impact on its freshwater resources than may be rational.
− If water is not priced to users according to full cost recovery rules, greater amounts of water supplies will be demanded and the desert psychology will be in full force, leading to ever greater schemes for water development.
− If waste water is not reused up to the point where marginal benefits equal marginal costs, more freshwater supplies will need to be developed because of inefficient use of wastewater.
− If the optimal potential for system integration and operation is not realised, additional freshwater supplies will be demanded. Irrational drought planning will have the same consequence.
− An international agreement between Angola, Botswana and Namibia over the
management of the Kavango River system might deal with the allocation and management of the river to the benefit of all parties. Without it there may be strife, particularly if Namibia’s interest in the Kavango waters for its central water supply system compels Namibia to unilateral development of the Kavango supply.
There is a prospect in Namibia that water policies are moving in the direction of greater efficiency. Evidence supporting this observation is presented in preceding sections of this report. Looking at the consequences of alternative policies 50 years into the future, as IIASA can do, has the distinct possibility of influencing the trend of water resource policies in these countries.
12
The principles of economic efficiency would lead to maximisation of the net benefits of water resource development or to minimising the costs of a particular water resource objective such as the costs of drought avoidance.
6
References
Ashley, C., H. Müller, and M. Harris. 1995. Population dynamics, the environment, and demand for water and energy in Namibia. Research Discussion Paper No. 7. Windhoek: Directorate of Environmental Affairs, Minister of Environment and Tourism.
DWA. 1997. Future Water Demand Estimates for the Central, Northern Regions of Namibia. Windhoek: Department of Water Affairs, Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Rural Development.
Greiner, F. 1997. Appendix O, in Water Transfer Consultants, Feasibility study of the Okavango River to Grootfontein link of the Eastern National Water Carrier, Vol. 4. Executive Summary. Windhoek: Department of Water Affairs, Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Rural Development.
Joint Venture Consultants (Consulting Engineers Salzgitter; Lund Consulting Engineers; and Windhoek Consulting Engineers). 1993. Central area water master plan: Phase 1. Executive Summary. Windhoek: Department of Water Affairs; Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Rural Development.
Lange, G.M. 1997a. An approach to sustainable water management using natural resource accounts: The use of water, the economic value of water and implications for policy. Research Discussion Paper No. 18. Windhoek: Directorate of Environmental Affairs, Ministry of Environment and Tourism.
Lange, G.M. 1997b. Final Report: Natural Resource Accounting in Namibia and Southern Africa. Draft final report to United States Agency for International Development. Windhoek: Directorate of Environmental Affairs, Ministry of Environment and Tourism.
McGarry, R. 1983. Potomac River Basin cooperation, a success story. Pages 90-108 in
Cooperation in Urban Water Management. Report of a conference conducted by the Water
Science and Technology Board of the National Research Council. Washington, D.C. National Academy Press.
NAPCOD. 1996. Policy Factors and Desertification – Analysis and Proposals. Windhoek: Namibian Programme to Combat Desertification, Desert Research Foundation of Namibia, Ministry of Environment and Tourism, and Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Rural Development.
Office of the Prime Minister. 1997. Government Notice No. 199, 1997. Promulgation of Act of Parliament No. 12 of 1997: Namibia Water Corporation Act. Windhoek.
UNIDO. 1994. Namibia: New Avenues of Industrial Development. Summary and Selected
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Water Transfer Consultants (Bicon, Namibia, Inc; Lund Consulting Engineers; and Parkman). 1997. Feasibility study of the Okavango River to Grootfontein link of the Eastern National Water Carrier. Executive Summary. Windhoek: Department of Water Affairs; Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Rural Development.