Selecting the best IMT location

The previous section identified the key factors governing the mode choice and distribution model and how the location decisions of intermodal terminals influence the magnitude or impacts of these factors on modal decisions and cargo distributions. This section finds the most promising location among the candidate IMT locations. The selection criterion is maximum entropy which based on Proposition 4.7, the IMT with the maximum entropy is also the location which provides the largest consumer surplus or welfares for users. The results for the location of one IMT is presented in Table 7.4 and Figure 7.12. The table shows that the location that generates the largest consumer surplus also attracted the largest cargo demand and this location is Eastern Creek. Camellia is also very promising and closely follows Eastern Creek both in terms of consumer surplus and demand.

The distribution of demands of each candidate IMT location in shown in Figure 7.12 with Enfield being the least promising location. Figures 7.13 and 7.14 present the key areas in the study area where the demands for the two most promising IMTs (Eastern Creek and Camellia) are greatest. Figure 7.13 shows Eastern Creek obtaining almost half of its demand from cargo destinations in Blacktown (the largest cargo destination), Fairfield contributing about 14% and Penrith, and Paramatta and Holroyd contributing 12% each. The cargo destination zones within these four areas contribute about 87% of Eastern Creek’s demand or market for intermodal transport. Camellia attracts demand from more areas than Eastern Creek,

Eastern Creek, 0.0206

although it also has Blacktown as its biggest market. Paramatta and Holroyd also contributes significantly (about 35%) to Camellia’s demand. The other notable areas of demand are Fairfield (9%), Penrith (9%) and Auburn (5%). These five areas contribute about 95% of Camellia’s demand. Thus, Blacktown, Fairfield, Penrith and Paramatta and Holroyd could be considered as the main catchment areas for Eastern Creek IMT whilst Blacktown, Fairfield, Penrith, Paramatta and Holroyd and Auburn are the catchment areas for Camelia IMT.

Figure 7.12 : Estimated demand for each candidate IMT location

Figure 7.13 : Key Market for located (Eastern Creek) IMT Enfield, 1,287

Yennora, 61,337

Camellia, 159,981 Eastern Creek, 170,857

Moorebank, 7,660

Ingleburn, 51,862 Minto, 50,454

Villawood, 10,419

Chullora, 2,102 Enfield Yennora Camellia Eastern

Creek Moorebank Ingleburn Minto Villawood Chullora

Intermodal demand (TEUs)

Candidate locations

Figure 7.14 : Key markets for Camellia IMT

The analysis above shows Eastern Creek and Camellia competing for almost the same markets. To test this, two IMTs were simultaneously located (p=2) with Eastern Creek and Camellia emerging as the best locations, having the largest entropy and hence the largest consumer surplus and demand. The contribution of each key market in the demand for the two IMTs are shown in Figure 7.15. The Figure shows Eastern Creek capturing about 79% of intermodal transport demand to Blacktown, 61% to Penrith, 56% to Campbelltown and 43% to Fairfield. Camellia on the other hand takes the bigger share of intermodal transport demand to Parramatta and Holroyd (86%), Auburn (91%), Bankstown (91%), Liverpool (71%) and Fairfield (57%). The location of the two IMTs increased the overall intermodal transport demand from 174,408 TEUs (Eastern Creek) to 255,756 TEUs, about 48% increase in intermodal transport demand and representing about 28% of the total cargo demand in the study area. Camellia contributes about 51% of the total intermodal transport demand and the rest (41%) by Eastern Creek. Although the results show some level of competition between these two IMTs, they can be developed simultaneously with minimum market saturation and also the fact that the overall demand for intermodal transport improved significantly from 19% to about 28%.

Similar analysis was carried out for the simultaneous location of 3 and 4 IMTs with the market shares of each optimal IMT shown in Figures 7.16 and 7.17 respectively. All the results show Eastern Creek as consistently captive to the Blacktown and Penrith markets, Camellia controls the intermodal market to Auburn, Parramatta and Holroyd. For the 3 located IMTs

(p=3), Ingleburn IMT controls the markets in Campbelltown and Liverpool, whilst for the four (p=4) located IMTs, Villawood has taken over the markets in Liverpool, Bankstown and Fairfield but Ingleburn still controls the intermodal market in Campbelltown.

Figure 7.15: Market share for Eastern Creek and Camellia IMTs

Figure 7.16: Market share for Eastern Creek, Camellia and Ingleburn IMTs 79%

Figure 7.17: Market share for the four located IMTs

The overall contribution of each located IMT in total intermodal transport demand are shown in Figure 7.18 with the contribution of Eastern Creek decreasing from 100% under p=1 (number of required IMTs to locate) to 32% under p=4. The figure also shows that contribution to intermodal transport usage by Camellia is on average higher than Eastern Creek for 𝑝 = 3.

These results are expected since as shown in Figures 7.13 (Eastern Creek) and 7.14 (Camellia) both IMTs have Blacktown as their biggest market and so they are expected to share the intermodal market in Blacktown if both are located. Additionally, Camellia has more catchments areas than Eastern Creek as shown in Figures 7.13 to 7.17. It is also worth noting that Eastern Creek is among the best places to locate IMTs for all 𝑝 ≥ 1. Similar observation is true for the Camellia IMT for 𝑝 ≥ 2. These imply that if the volume realized is currently not enough to justify the running and setup costs of two IMTs, then Eastern Creek could be developed first and add Camelia when cargo volumes grows.

79%

Figure 7.18: Robustness of optimal IMT selection