Based on the findings of this research, the researcher recommends the following:
Government Capital Expenditure aimed at reducing poverty should be carried out such that, proper implementation with proper checks are done to achieve a significant reduction in the rates of poverty.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation should be encouraged since it has a significant impact of poverty reduction in Nigeria.
Government should incentivize individuals through the use of monetary policy in order to increase private sector investments that would reduce the rates of poverty.
APPENDIX
Dependent Variable: LNPOV Method: Least Squares Date: 07/02/18 Time: 11:30 Sample: 1981 2015
Included observations: 35
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 5.440611 0.970670 5.605003 0.0000
LNGCEXP 0.220424 0.058712 3.754347 0.0007
LNGREXP 0.046192 0.060207 0.767215 0.4488
LNGFCF -0.192368 0.097313 -1.976803 0.0570
R-squared 0.748578 Mean dependent var 4.019708
Adjusted R-squared 0.724247 S.D. dependent var 0.242857 S.E. of regression 0.127530 Akaike info criterion -1.173725 Sum squared resid 0.504178 Schwarz criterion -0.995971 Log likelihood 24.54018 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.112364 F-statistic 30.76628 Durbin-Watson stat 0.773294 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Null Hypothesis: LNPOV has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.423930 0.1430
Test critical values: 1% level -3.639407
5% level -2.951125
10% level -2.614300
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LNPOV) Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/05/18 Time: 17:39 Sample (adjusted): 1982 2015
Included observations: 34 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
LNPOV(-1) -0.154355 0.063680 -2.423930 0.0212
C 0.638613 0.256300 2.491662 0.0181
R-squared 0.155125 Mean dependent var 0.018488
Adjusted R-squared 0.128723 S.D. dependent var 0.096470 S.E. of regression 0.090047 Akaike info criterion -1.919940 Sum squared resid 0.259473 Schwarz criterion -1.830154 Log likelihood 34.63899 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.889321 F-statistic 5.875435 Durbin-Watson stat 1.505236 Prob(F-statistic) 0.021183
Null Hypothesis: LNGCEXP has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.080312 0.7122
Test critical values: 1% level -3.639407
5% level -2.951125
10% level -2.614300
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LNGCEXP) Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/05/18 Time: 17:41 Sample (adjusted): 1982 2015
Included observations: 34 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
LNGCEXP(-1) -0.030683 0.028402 -1.080312 0.2881
C 0.285634 0.144032 1.983127 0.0560
R-squared 0.035188 Mean dependent var 0.141905
Adjusted R-squared 0.005037 S.D. dependent var 0.322556 S.E. of regression 0.321743 Akaike info criterion 0.626895 Sum squared resid 3.312592 Schwarz criterion 0.716681 Log likelihood -8.657209 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.657514
F-statistic 1.167074 Durbin-Watson stat 2.112715 Prob(F-statistic) 0.288078
Null Hypothesis: LNGREXP has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.363194 0.5880
Test critical values: 1% level -3.646342
5% level -2.954021
10% level -2.615817
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LNGREXP) Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/05/18 Time: 17:44 Sample (adjusted): 1983 2015
Included observations: 33 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
LNGREXP(-1) -0.027898 0.020465 -1.363194 0.1830 D(LNGREXP(-1)) -0.339671 0.167894 -2.023124 0.0521
C 0.414009 0.123877 3.342105 0.0022
R-squared 0.158281 Mean dependent var 0.198320
Adjusted R-squared 0.102166 S.D. dependent var 0.270051 S.E. of regression 0.255885 Akaike info criterion 0.198328 Sum squared resid 1.964309 Schwarz criterion 0.334374 Log likelihood -0.272417 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.244104 F-statistic 2.820667 Durbin-Watson stat 1.965352 Prob(F-statistic) 0.075424
Null Hypothesis: LNGFCF has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.220496 0.9263
Test critical values: 1% level -3.639407
5% level -2.951125
10% level -2.614300
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LNGFCF) Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/05/18 Time: 17:45 Sample (adjusted): 1982 2015
Included observations: 34 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
LNGFCF(-1) -0.003367 0.015269 -0.220496 0.8269
C 0.186328 0.215669 0.863951 0.3940
R-squared 0.001517 Mean dependent var 0.139126
Adjusted R-squared -0.029686 S.D. dependent var 0.150659 S.E. of regression 0.152879 Akaike info criterion -0.861322 Sum squared resid 0.747901 Schwarz criterion -0.771536 Log likelihood 16.64247 Hannan-Quinn criter. -0.830702 F-statistic 0.048618 Durbin-Watson stat 1.188288 Prob(F-statistic) 0.826886
Null Hypothesis: D(LNPOV) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.203393 0.0024
Test critical values: 1% level -3.646342
5% level -2.954021
10% level -2.615817
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LNPOV,2) Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/02/18 Time: 11:04
Sample (adjusted): 1983 2015
Included observations: 33 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(LNPOV(-1)) -0.773301 0.183971 -4.203393 0.0002
C 0.010448 0.017286 0.604425 0.5500
R-squared 0.363038 Mean dependent var -0.008161
Adjusted R-squared 0.342491 S.D. dependent var 0.118377 S.E. of regression 0.095988 Akaike info criterion -1.790493 Sum squared resid 0.285625 Schwarz criterion -1.699796 Log likelihood 31.54314 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.759976 F-statistic 17.66851 Durbin-Watson stat 1.811596 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000207
Null Hypothesis: D(LNGCEXP) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.907660 0.0000
Test critical values: 1% level -3.646342
5% level -2.954021
10% level -2.615817
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LNGCEXP,2) Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/02/18 Time: 11:10 Sample (adjusted): 1983 2015
Included observations: 33 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(LNGCEXP(-1)) -1.056526 0.178840 -5.907660 0.0000
C 0.155094 0.063161 2.455519 0.0199
R-squared 0.529593 Mean dependent var 0.002033
Adjusted R-squared 0.514419 S.D. dependent var 0.474866 S.E. of regression 0.330904 Akaike info criterion 0.684714 Sum squared resid 3.394417 Schwarz criterion 0.775411 Log likelihood -9.297775 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.715231 F-statistic 34.90045 Durbin-Watson stat 1.974144 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000002
Null Hypothesis: D(LNGREXP) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7.804530 0.0000
Test critical values: 1% level -3.646342
5% level -2.954021
10% level -2.615817
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LNGREXP,2) Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/02/18 Time: 11:13 Sample (adjusted): 1983 2015
Included observations: 33 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(LNGREXP(-1)) -1.325969 0.169897 -7.804530 0.0000
C 0.263123 0.056391 4.666093 0.0001
R-squared 0.662716 Mean dependent var -0.000481 Adjusted R-squared 0.651836 S.D. dependent var 0.439625 S.E. of regression 0.259403 Akaike info criterion 0.197823 Sum squared resid 2.085985 Schwarz criterion 0.288520 Log likelihood -1.264075 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.228340 F-statistic 60.91069 Durbin-Watson stat 1.931273 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Null Hypothesis: D(LNGFCF) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.673274 0.0094
Test critical values: 1% level -3.646342
5% level -2.954021
10% level -2.615817
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LNGFCF,2) Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/02/18 Time: 11:15 Sample (adjusted): 1983 2015
Included observations: 33 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(LNGFCF(-1)) -0.605184 0.164753 -3.673274 0.0009
C 0.086337 0.034004 2.539020 0.0164
R-squared 0.303260 Mean dependent var 0.000272
Adjusted R-squared 0.280785 S.D. dependent var 0.166930 S.E. of regression 0.141568 Akaike info criterion -1.013384 Sum squared resid 0.621285 Schwarz criterion -0.922686 Log likelihood 18.72083 Hannan-Quinn criter. -0.982867 F-statistic 13.49294 Durbin-Watson stat 2.023045 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000898
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic 0.606913 Prob. F(9,25) 0.7794
Obs*R-squared 6.275889 Prob. Chi-Square(9) 0.7120 Scaled explained SS 5.112364 Prob. Chi-Square(9) 0.8244
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 07/05/18 Time: 16:49 Sample: 1981 2015
Included observations: 35
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -2.236823 7.713971 -0.289970 0.7742
LNGCEXP^2 -0.029904 0.024019 -1.245025 0.2247
LNGCEXP*LNGREXP 0.041706 0.037124 1.123429 0.2719
LNGCEXP*LNGFCF 0.016084 0.055767 0.288415 0.7754
LNGCEXP -0.161930 0.551873 -0.293418 0.7716
LNGREXP^2 -0.019296 0.030138 -0.640248 0.5278
LNGREXP*LNGFCF 0.004985 0.092699 0.053772 0.9575
LNGREXP -0.064958 0.931781 -0.069714 0.9450
LNGFCF^2 -0.017916 0.075553 -0.237132 0.8145
LNGFCF 0.401316 1.526285 0.262937 0.7948
R-squared 0.179311 Mean dependent var 0.014405
Adjusted R-squared -0.116137 S.D. dependent var 0.021062 S.E. of regression 0.022252 Akaike info criterion -4.537836 Sum squared resid 0.012379 Schwarz criterion -4.093451 Log likelihood 89.41214 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4.384435 F-statistic 0.606913 Durbin-Watson stat 1.836851 Prob(F-statistic) 0.779362
Normality Test
YEAR POV GCEXP GREXP GFCF
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