Social changes Social changes could include:

• Ageing, infirm and mobility impaired population

• Long term unemployment and reduced disposable income (social deprivation) • Singleton living

• Home working • Smoking • Immigration.

Ageing, infirm and incapacitated population

People are on average living longer and consequently the population is ageing. Various initiatives, for example, ‘Care in the Community’ etc will mean that elderly, infirm and mobility impaired people will be living in their own homes rather than in residential care homes or hospitals, as in the past. The numbers of elderly, infirm and mobility impaired people living in their own homes is likely to increase. This would increase the risk of fires and fire deaths [Arson Control Forum 2006].

In addition, there is a trend of an increase in obesity in the population. Larger and heavier people will find it harder to escape or be rescued in the event of a fire.

Therefore, the qualitative trend of an increasingly ageing, infirm and mobility impaired population would affect the cost benefit factors by increasing the risk of fires and associated fire deaths and injuries It is also suggested that there would be a resulting increase in the number of fire injuries and property damage. In addition, the sprinkler effectiveness factors for death and injury would decrease.

Those aged between 70 and 80 are twice as likely to be killed in a house fire than would be expected given their prevalence within the general population (16% compared with 7%), with those aged over 80 nearly five times more likely to be killed in a house fire than would be expected (19% compared with 4%) given the current age-profile of the population [Arson Control Forum 2006]. The impact of this trend is illustrated in section 7.2

Long term unemployment and reduced disposable income

This recession, as in past recessions, has seen an increase in unemployment. A long term unemployed person with a reduced disposable income might spend more time at home and have less money to spend on replacing or maintaining old appliances (see Economic impact section 7.1.2). Similarly, cheaper options for heating and lighting might be used, for example candles, open fires or portable heating appliances. These might result in an increased risk of a fire occurring.

Therefore, the qualitative trend of increasing unemployment and reduced disposable income would probably affect the cost benefit factors by increasing the number of fires. It is also suggested that there would be a resulting increase in the number of fire deaths, injuries and property damage.

Singleton living

There is an increasing tendency for people to live on their own rather than in larger family groups as in the past. Singleton living increases the risk of fires and fire deaths [Arson Control Forum 2006]. Therefore, the qualitative trend of increasing singleton living would affect the cost benefit factors by increasing the number of fires and fire deaths.

Home working

With changes in working patterns, locations, computer technology, the cost of housing and the need for flexibility, there is a current trend for people to work more from home. The impact of this is difficult to estimate. It could be argued that an increase in home working would affect the cost benefit analysis factors by increasing the number of fires and increasing the number of fire deaths, injuries and property damage or conversely, if a home is occupied for greater periods of time, the occurrence of a fire may be more easily detected.

Smoking

Changes in smoking trends would be expected to impact on fire safety as ‘careless use of smokers’ materials is responsible for about half the accidental fatal fires in the UK [Williams et al 2010]. In response to this baseline fact, which is mirrored in many other countries, the European Union has enacted legislation to replace current cigarettes with new “reduced ignition propensity” (RIP) cigarettes with an intention to improve fire safety. Whilst it is preferable for people not to smoke at all, it is recognised that this is not achievable in the short to medium term. As such, RIP cigarettes have been developed by

cigarette manufacturers and in November 2011 replaced “conventional” cigarettes, as a way of improving fire safety by reducing the number of accidental fires related to careless use of smokers’ materials. As yet there is no definitive data to indicate whether RIP cigarettes will have an effect on the number of accidental fatal fires due to the “careless use of smokers’ materials”.

If the qualitative trend of either declining smoking and/or a reduction in the number of accidental fires the impact on the cost benefit factors would be a decrease in the number of fires and reduction in the number of fire deaths, injuries and property damage. Conversely, if RIP cigarettes do not impact on the fire

statistics, then the current status quo would be maintained. Immigration

There has been a recent trend in increasing numbers of people coming to live and work in the UK from the European Union and other countries. People from different countries run their households differently, for example different sized family groups, operate different safety regimes, may have greater or lesser use of candles and open fires. There are no UK data to determine how the qualitative trend of an increase in immigration would affect the cost benefit factors.

7.1.2 Economic impact