Spatial Phenomena

Space

If one considers the relevance of the somewhat formulaic interpretation of geopolitics using its stem – geo, meaning of the earth, then the concept of space within which physical features exist and human activity is conducted within is a core concept. After all has been said and argued about geopolitical theory and concepts, one cannot help but be drawn back to fundamentals – the physical make-up of the planet, specifically the expanse and configuration of the terrestrial and oceanic spaces on the surface of the planet, and the earth’s crust from which we access our resources. In looking at the elements of geography – where is everything? How large is it? Where is it in relation to other features, and how long does it take to traverse this space?

A very precise appreciation of the Earth’s surface from a geographical perspective (including topography, vegetation cover and meteorology) has long been appreciated since the advent of satellites. Furthermore, the ages old cartographic project to exactly map the landmasses and oceans has been largely completed with the advent of technologies such as the Global Positioning System (GPS). More specific to this project, these technologies combined with the vast improvements in seismic and computer-generated visualisation and modelling technology has enabled far more precise definition of what exists within the Earth’s crust - the mineral deposits such as oil and gas both in terms of typology, location and quantity.

It could be argued that it is also important to start here because there is always concealed value in considering the intellectual primers of the natural and social sciences, and secondly, because spatial and temporal inter-relationships, and their impact upon the ontology and behaviour of states, serves as one of the mainsprings of geopolitical process. Geoffrey Parker conceptualized this inter-relationship in the late twentieth century as the ‘Geopolitical time and space matrix’.11

Spatial conceptualisation has roots in philosophy prior to, during and following the Enlightenment. Plato mused about the structure and disposition of the world in Timaeus, and he is still credited with grasping a concept of space that is still prevalent in our thinking. Later, Aristotle considered the concept of place as well as space. As he advanced his thinking, Aristotle went on to view these phenomena not just in terms of the distance and direction between different places but also in the sense of the containment of a given space,12 what we would now think of a natural boundaries such as mountains, rivers and oceans, as well as artificial ones such as sovereign boundaries drawn on a map. These observations are reflected in the logic of movement between, and control over, different locations, and contemporary relationships across geopolitical demarcations.

During the 18th century, Kant highlighted that different entities arranged in separation were distinct both because they occupied different places but also because they were conceived differently by individuals. This insight is revealing when applied to contemporary concepts of the distant and the foreign, which are intrinsic to geographical science. Writing in The Critique of Pure Reason, Kant submits that: “Space is a necessary a priori representation, which underlies all outer institutions”.13 In extrapolating from this and setting it in the context of geopolitical imagining, Kant is suggesting that in order to appreciate how one entity in space relates to another, one must first have an appreciation of the dimensional concept that is

space. This conception facilitates fuller appreciation of the affect of causal variables such as topography, boundaries, distance, resources, climate, population dispersal and geology as they apply to contemporary geopolitical ontology.

Some post-modern thinkers have refined theorising of space to include the notion of

spatiality, which ‘refers to how space is represented as having effects’.14 In this context, Agnew and Corbridge posit that space ‘is taken to refer to the presumed effect of location and spatial setting – or where political-economic processes are taking place – upon those processes’.15 They elaborate that space can also be viewed as structural. In this way, ‘geographical entities…nodes, districts, regions etc. have spatial effects that result from their interaction or relationship with one another’.16

Chapter three poses the question: ‘why and to what extent are petroleum reserves geopolitical?’ In addressing this, it will be posited that oil and gas reserves are inherently geopolitical because of what they are and represent, where a given deposit (or a grouping of deposits) is located, and the significance of the magnitude of the deposit. The chapter assesses

relative geopolitical implications of the reserves typology and estimated quantities of all of the most important proven reserves of oil and gas. In a cartographical sense, the dispersal of reserves of oil and gas is global (see Fig 2.1 below). Given this, the operational reach of modern IOCs and NOCs needed to access and produce resources on a canvas of this scale must be considerable; though it is fair to say that capabilities in this regard vary a great deal.

Fig.2.1 Distribution of global oil reserves

Source: Oil & Gas Journal

Proven oil and gas reserves are located across all of the continents of the world and under parts of all of the earth’s oceans. Almost 90% of the world’s proven oil reserves are located in territory that constitutes almost a third of the planet’s land surface area.

Much of this project is centred on petroleum resources, production and transportation that occurs within Eurasia (which represents 10.6% of the earth’s surface area17) and through the oceanic space that surrounds it, indeed the majority of the world’s petroleum in terms of BOE is located within it and transported across its landmass and interconnected maritime spaces. In considering Kant’s view of the a priori significance of space, to have an understanding of the vast distances involved, regional differentials, and physical relativities (land and sea) in Eurasia (see Fig. 2.2) alone is as complex as it is paramount for those seeking to access its petroleum and distribute it.

commercial/business value also confers commensurate geopolitical value or significance for the users and markets it was designed to service.

In a maritime context, distance and time are arguably even more significant factors in terms of implications for conveyance of petroleum. For example, there are considerable distances between primary sources of production of crude and natural gas and some key consumers in Asia. Some key distances and times of voyages illustrate the point: The distance from Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia to Yokohama in Japan is 6,641 nautical miles (nm) via the Malacca Straits, which takes a VLCC transporting 2 million barrels of crude approximately 19 days to traverse. The distance from Kharg Island in Iran to Shuidong in China is 5,143 nm via Singapore, a voyage that takes a VLCC almost 15 days to complete. The distance between the Ras Laffan LNG terminal in Qatar and Chita in Japan is 6,424 nm, which takes a laden Q- Max LNG carrier just over 18 days to complete.20

To add some additional perspective on the potential implications for producers, shippers and consumers of oil and gas, if shipping flows through the Phillips Channel off Singapore were to be disrupted or the strait blocked, these deep draft vessels would have to be diverted via the Lombok Straits between the Islands of Bali and Lombok in Indonesia. This would add another 1,000 nm to voyages between the Persian Gulf and oil terminals in South Korea, Thailand, China and Japan, and increase the sailing time by another 3 days.21 This has implications for delays in delivery of vital oil and gas supplies, increases in insurance and charter rates, the numbers of vessels required to keep up the necessary frequency of supply in the case of contracted LNG deliveries. Such a diversion of this kind could also potentially have serious security implications during times of intra-state or regional tension or conflict, or if the threat to shipping from piracy or maritime terrorism in the Sulu Sea or Celebes Sea were to increase or evolve in the future.

The logistical, commercial and financial implications of extensive (and potentially increased) distance/time factors in the Indo-Pacific maritime context are considerable. This would be of increased significance during times of economic hardship when some shippers might be unable to operate such voyages with no profit or even at a loss (as happened during the 2008- 2010 global economic crisis). Were such a climate to be prolonged, some countries might be compelled to import petroleum using their nationally-flagged vessels, thus creating a strategic ‘bridge’ to ensure vital supplies. This works for states like China that is expanding its national

fleet, but it might not be possible for small states. The geopolitical and geo-strategic factors affecting SLOCs will be explored further in the next section.