Stakeholders in the procedure

The KNSB is not the only policy maker concerning the selection of skaters for Olympic Winter Games. Also the IOC (International Olympic Committee) and the ISU (International Speed Skating Union) have a say in the selection. These organi-zations formulate nomination criteria, namely for each skating distance they set a fixed time limit that needs to be reached by a skater in order to obtain a nomination for that distance. Only skaters that are nominated can be selected by national or-ganizations. Of course, this is to exclude skaters with very poor performances. For the Netherlands, the main decision makers are the NOC*NSF (Dutch Olympic Com-mittee/Dutch Sport Federation) and the KNSB. The actual selection procedure can be formulated as a sequence of decision steps. Below we present and describe these steps; see also KNSB (2009).

4.4.2 2010 KNSB selection procedure

The KNSB wants to take into account the fact that skaters may have their peak just before the Games. So they want to take the final decisions as late as possible. This is why they organize the OQT in December. Almost all selection decisions are taken based on the ranking results of this OQT.

The 2010 selection procedure

Step 1. IOC-ISU Nomination Special time limits are set for each distance by the IOC and the ISU. In order to receive a so called nomination for a distance at least the time limit for that distance needs to be skated in the period July 1, 2009 through January 17, 2010, during an official ISU tournament (ISU Regulations: communica-tion No. 1572). Only nominated skaters can be selected for the Games by the nacommunica-tional organizations. The total number of skaters that a country is allowed to delegate is determined by the Special Olympic Qualification Classifications (see Section 4.3.1).

Recall that for the Netherlands the current amounts are ten for the men and ten for the women, being the maximum numbers any country is allowed to select.

Step 2. Qualification As the Netherlands has many talented skaters (almost all are professionals), also the number of nominated skaters is high. At the end of December 2009 at least 33 men and 34 women were nominated. Therefore the KNSB needs to use its own system to select skaters from the nomination list.

Step 2a. Pre-qualification A first pre-selection of the nominated skaters is made based on results obtained between 2008 and 2010. Each pre-selected skater receives the status of qualified skater. This pre-qualification can be obtained by satisfying at least one of the following criteria.

• A top-3 classification during the WSDCh 2009;

• A top-8 classification during one of the five WCs, organized between Novem-ber 2009 and DecemNovem-ber 2009;

• A top-8 classification during either one of the WCs, or during the WSDCh in the season 2008/2009, in both cases combined with a top-12 classification during one of the WCs in the season 2009/2010 on the same distance;

• Winning a distance during the OQT in December 2009.

Step 2b. Special status A skater who became world champion during the WS-DCh 2009 and wins one of the five WCs in the Olympic season 2009/2010 obtains a special status. This means that the KNSB has the possibility to select this skater im-mediately for the Games, without letting him/her compete in the December OQT;

see Step 4a.

Step 3a. PM ranking ¹⁰ While a PM consists of numbers reflecting the win probabilities of skaters, the PM ranking is an ordered list of the 18 starting positions for the men, and of the 17 starting positions for the women. Recall (see Section 4.3.1) that the women have lost one starting position on the 5000m. The PM rankings are designed in the following way. The first position in a PM ranking is the distance that corresponds to the highest win probability in the corresponding PM. Then the

10In the Dutch media a PM ranking was referred to as a Performance Matrix (in Dutch: Prestatiematrix)

distance with the second highest win probability is taken and put on the second position. This procedure is continued until the ranking has reached the maximum number of starting positions on that distance (for example, this maximum is four for the 1500m; see Section 4.3.1).

Step 3b. PM-adjustments The KNSB has the right to change the ordering of the PM rankings, for instance based on special arguments of coaches. So, PMs serve as decision support tools: the KNSB stays responsible for the final PM ranking.

Step 4. The Olympic Qualification Tournament (OQT) The final PM ranking is filled with names of skaters. The two resulting lists of 18 male skaters and 17 fe-male skaters are called Selection Rankings. The assignment of skaters to a PM ranking is carried out in the following way.

a. Special statusSpecial status skaters (see Step 2b) are assigned first. They take the first positions of the distance on which they have a special status.

The remaining places on the PM rankings are filled in by using the final results of the December OQT. This is done by distinguishing the following two situations.

b1. Qualified skater wins OQT distanceIf a qualified skater wins an OQT distance and there is an open position on the PM ranking for this distance after Step 4a, then this skater is assigned to that distance position. If there is still a position available on that distance, the next qualified skater from the OQT result of that distance is taken.

(So possible higher ranked non-qualifiers are neglected.). This procedure is repeated until all positions of the PM ranking for that distance are filled. In case there are not enough qualified skaters, the highest ranked non-qualifiers are filling the remaining positions.

b2. Non-qualified skater wins OQT distanceIf a non-qualified skater wins a dis-tance at this OQT, he/she receives the status of ’newly qualified skater’. If this hap-pens, then the KNSB keeps the last position at that distance open, and has to organize a second OQT in Januari 2010; see Step 5. The other places are filled with the highest ranked qualified skaters.

Step 5. Second OQT The KNSB organizes a second OQT in January 2009 just before the Games when either one of the following situations occurs.

a.A qualified skater is sick or injured and cannot participate in the first OQT;

b.A non-qualified skater was the winner of an OQT distance; see Step 4(b2).

For each distance with either a newly qualified skater or one that was sick or injured during the first OQT, a competition is organized together with all other qualified skaters that are not yet selected. If a sick or injured qualified skater turns out be the only participant, he automatically occupies the last open position. Otherwise, winners of the second OQT fill the positions that are kept open in Step 4.

Step 6. More than ten skaters are selected After applying the previous steps it may happen that more than ten skaters are selected. In this case, the eleventh and higher selected skaters are removed from the PM list. They are replaced by skaters

who are already selected within the first ten on other distances. First, the highest ranked qualified skaters during the OQT are selected and then the non-qualified skaters.

Step 7. Team pursuit (see Section 4.4.3) During Step 6, the KNSB can choose to select only nine skaters and leave the last position open for a non-selected skater who will start in the team pursuit. This skater will be assigned to an open position on a certain distance and is especially selected to increase the win probability of the team pursuit. Due to the restriction of ten skaters per country, this would mean that the skater selected for the team pursuit replaces the tenth skater of the PM ranking.