When you think to have collected enough data you should have it categorized well in print and in your computer (Market Research Directory). Now it’s time to scan, sort and read all documents, taking out what is relevant, understand it, check if it is good information, make comparisons and draw your conclusions. The analysis can be subdivided into four parts, although in reality some of these parts are done at the same time.
You can proceed in this step as follows:
n
Sorting and avoid getting losto
Filtering and understandingp
Checking and comparingq
Relationships and conclusionsn
Sorting and avoid getting lostIn the past 20 years, various innovations such as computers, television, satellites have pushed people from a state of information scarcity to a state of information surplus in a very short time.
So in addition to effective collection of data, you must be able to manage and to handle all this information. Therefore, you have to sort your data as much as you can.
As already mentioned in step 2.4, you can start to categorize your data while searching. Keep control by reviewing your subjects
per country and try to fill in some parts in your Research Action Plan.
This structured approach of working prevents you getting lost in an information overload. If you do not have the time yourself, someone else could do this for you. The sooner and the most effectively the data is sorted, the better it will be in the end.
After having done most sorting, you will see what is still missing. If it is really essential, you could consider buying this missing data from business information providers. Nevertheless, you can carry on with the analysis of the countries where you have sufficient data.
o
Filtering and understandingNow it is time for submarine reading. You have to read carefully all data and information and ‘filter’ out what is relevant. When reading each document, ask yourself:
is it is relevant for my research objective, subjects and questions? Put aside everything, which is not or not directly relevant. You may have come across documents that caught your attention simply because they
contained one or more’ trigger words’ relating to your subject. But when looking closely at it, there is no real value or just a couple of phrases with some value such as summaries of reports, articles about interesting reports that are just advertorials. Put this to one side as well.
There may be documents that need to be translated,
don’t lose yourself in an information overload
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but judge first which parts are necessary before putting effort into it. You might understand already things from the tables such as consumption or production in the last 5 years, main retailers and shares. If there are interesting trends like market growth or detailed descriptions of consumers or manufacturers, try to translate and understand this.
When reading printed documents, highlight important parts like sales, consumer target groups, buying motives, or trends in the trade with a text marker. You can also write important statistics or facts on a separate sheet, so that you always have this information at hand.
The main purpose in this part of your analysis is that you start to form a
‘picture’ of interesting EU countries that you need to sharpen by every additional piece of information you can find. These countries could become your target markets. For example, the exporter of tennis balls found out that Italy is more interesting than Germany, because volume imports grew by 10% every year between 2004 and 2008. In the same period, the number of Italian tennis players increased as well. Although the German market may have grown by 2% every year, there are many competitors.
In addition, from field research he learned that many German buyers regard a low price as most important. So he concentrates on sharpening further his ‘picture’ of Italy.
Focussing in on Italy, he could deepen his understanding by taking another look at all Italian documents that he has put aside earlier. He also should collect extra information by desk research and include more background information on the Italian sports goods market. Additional field research could be considered at a later stage.
p
Checking and comparingNow that you understand most of your documents and notes and have become more focussed on some EU countries, you will have to look at the quality of it by checking its reliability, completeness and comparability.
Reliability
You can look at the reliability by asking yourself the following questions:
• Who wrote it and where did you get it from?
Especially data collected from the Internet may not be reliable or trustworthy. So check the writer of the article or report, or also check if the site gives an address or telephone number of a person or organisation. What was your impression of the whole site?
Example 6 Æ Is the buyers’ information always right?
A buyer or someone you interviewed at a trade show may have told you that the market size for product X is € 1,500 million in his country and he may have given you many other figures and statements, pretending he knows it all.
Write down that information, but do not believe him straight away and definitely check it with the information you have found so far.
You may come across an article in a trade magazine or in a report
check the quality of the information you have found
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that estimates this market size at € 850 million one year before.
Check these figures by looking at:
- Population statistics where you can calculate the per capita consumption, dividing € 1,500 million by the population. The outcome you can compare with a country similar in size and in living standards.
- How the article/report and the buyer could have defined the market size.
- How did the buyer express the market size? Was that in retail sales or in consumer expenditure. In case of retail sales was it including or excluding VAT?
• Why did they write it?
Bear in mind that each product/market combination can be viewed from different angles. For example, a report on orange juice in Spain can be made from the perspectives of:
o The growers of oranges o The processors of oranges
o The governmental offices making legislation on packaging methods o The wholesale/retail trade
Check first the type of organisation (commercial, personal, academic or governmental) and think about their possible motives in making that report, such as selling information, recruiting members, ‘selling’ an opinion or ‘selling’
assistance. Generally, reports made by government or NGOs, such as CBI, are quite neutral, unbiased and reliable.
• When was it written?
Check the year of publication and its statistics. If it is too old, put it aside and you could use it for your background information if you cannot find anything on that country.
• How was it written?
Check the tone of the article or the person you interviewed. Was it not too exaggerated? Even official statistics are sometimes too optimistic, reflecting national pride rather than reality. Also bear in mind that companies
sometimes understate sales statistics in order to match their sales reported to tax authorities.
Check also if some market developments are not too generalised.
It is sometimes very easy to make statements on an EU level, but does that apply to all countries? Does that apply to all regions within each country (urban as opposed to rural areas)?
And, to all consumer groups or industries?
Completeness and up-to-date
For all EU countries you can try to get the full picture.
However, in reality this is difficult and it will take much time and cost, especially if you want up-to-date statistics.
Most statistics available are two years old, which is a reasonable time frame to know consumption and trade statistics in each country, using Eurostat.
You may get more recent data from Germany or the UK. Still, two year old statistics are a good basis to understand the trends in different EU countries.
two year old statistics as a good basis
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Comparability and different sources
It is difficult to compare EU countries, due to a lack of data in some countries.
Bear in mind that EU countries use different sources, methodologies and different ways in reporting their statistics. Especially, southern EU countries and smaller EU countries have their typical definitions and specific categories of product groups or retailers.
When looking at several EU markets, the ideal situation is when you have it from a single source, using the same product or market definitions. Try to use a single source especially for general data (demographic, socio-economic trade statistics, retailing). Still, it will be extremely hard to find a low cost single source for your specific product in the market size in all 27 EU countries.
You may find this in online databases or in reports from business information providers, but it will be expensive and even then, it is not certain that they are correct. On the other hand, you also come across different versions of the same information of a country or subject. So take out the most recent and reliable version and keep the other versions aside.
q
Relations and conclusionsNow you must have selected the most relevant and reliable data, information, statistics and your field interview reports. This is now sorted by country and subject in the form of printed documents with highlights and your notes. After having gone through them
several times, you should know your way around all these documents.
Next, you will have to go deeper into all of it and try to find relationships between statistics, statements and developments. Take some time and concentration and here proceed in a structured way and do not lose sight of what you need to know. Most of the additional statistics of all EU countries, you can find at National Statistics Offices, Eurostat or the Worldfact Book.
You can look for possible relationships between:
• The market size statistics you have found and the economic development in terms of consumer behaviour and consumer spending in country Y in the same period. Next to the check of the reliability of your statistics, you can look what happened in the past five years and particularly in the current, if available, or in the last year.
• Consumption, production and imports/exports. There is a relationship between these developments. But be careful! If imports are high production is high and exports are low, you could conclude that the apparent consumption is extremely high. This is not always true. You will have to consider high levels of stock that can be built up by large wholesalers in order to export these products the next year to a neighbouring country. Another reason for high imports could be the establishment of a large international supplier who also builds up stock.
A reason for low exports could be an abrupt fall in demand by the major export market of that country, falling exchange rates of Asian destinations,
different sources and different methodologies
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or simply a miscalculation. See also chapters 2.3.1 and 2.3.3.3 of part 2 'Your research practice'.
• Other relevant relations for your product or service, such as:
- The climate in a country, or cluster of countries, and the type of footwear (boots in colder countries).
- The height of people and the size of footwear, clothing, furniture (beds, tables) and meal proportions.
- The number of working women and the sales of fashionable clothing, footwear, jewellery and accessories.
- The size of households, the area (urban or rural) and the size and tastes in furniture, furnishing and home textiles.
Each time when making these connections, ask yourself what you can conclude after you clearly understand the reason. You also could try to find out the reasons for increases or decreases in sales, or of sudden peaks in import or production. Try to find out the reason behind this growth, and assess whether this will continue in the near future by looking closer at the relationships you have found. For example between:
• Less farmers in the EU Æ Intensive use of advanced agricultural and horticultural machinery by large farms requiring more spare parts.
• Economic recession Æ Falling housing markets, less demand for household and furnishing goods. Or, a rising demand for second hand goods, increased sales by discounters etc.
• Specific news or events Æ Bird Flu, BSE, industrialisation in agriculture leading
to more demand for organic food.
Other reasons can be found in market trends related to changing consumer behaviour, technological developments, changing safety regulations and so on.
Most data you may have collected by desk research, especially from sites of local trade and consumer magazines.
If you are an exporter of e.g. clothing, textile, cosmetics, jewellery, furniture, interior decorative articles, gifts, gardening articles, you can predict demand and understand relationships by knowing the future trends in fashion. You may have become familiar with these trends, from the information collected and your observations during your field research. See also the CBI export manual ‘Your guide to product and range development’ which can be downloaded from http://www.cbi.eu/marketinfo
On a country-by-country basis, you could check these relationships by starting with Germany or France as reliable and accurate information sources. Once you have clarified the relevant relationships in these countries, this will give you an idea of the future development in other EU target countries. You could use this when estimating demand or forecasting sales.
what can you conclude after you clearly understand the reason?
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