The interpretive approach of visions basically ends with the realization of an idea, when the interface of the desire and feasibility finally met. The next step after the materializa- tion of an idea is how this idea can diffuse within society and cause technological change. There are a variety of theories and models in economics, social science and other fields, which are better in explaining the diffusion of technologies. Also the SCOT approach with its term of the wider context remains blurry about the diffusion process. There is the need to find an additional model for the final stage of technological change, the process of diffusion.
For this reason, I want to introduce Everett M. Rogers’ (2003) theory about the diffusion of innovation. Like in other diffusion and lifecycle models (cp. Fagerberg, Mowery, and Nelson 2011, Utterback 2006) the life course of inventions is divided into four logical stages: The introduction of an artefact and furthermore the growth and stabilization as well as the saturation and decline of the invention. According to Rogers (2003, 11) the decision to accept or reject an innovation is not spontaneous, but rather a social process performed during a certain period by specific actors. According to the model from “Diffu- sion of Innovation” (Rogers 2003, 168–69) the adoption process develops in five stages: The first stage is about the awareness about a new invention. The concept uses the term of innovation for the artifact and inventions such as robots. An individual finds out about
a certain innovation, but misses further information about the innovation. At this stage, the individual is neither interested, nor disinterested in the innovation. It is literally only about the discovery of the innovation. In other words, it is the pure awareness of an innovation.
The second stage is about persuasion. Now the innovation attracts interest. The individ- ual starts to proactively collect information for a later decision about the acceptance or rejection of the innovation. In this stage, the communication with other social groups plays an important role, because it directly influences the decision.
The third stage is about the decision. The individual considers the advantages and dis- advantages of an innovation and its use. In other words, whether the individual will adopt or reject the innovation and the concept behind it as well as the connected consequences. Thereby one way to eliminate uncertainties regarding an innovation is simply to test the innovation, which increases the chance of a successful diffusion. This test run can be made representatively by one key actor of a social group. Another way is the demonstra- tion of the innovation, e.g. in the media, which can likewise empower the adoption of the innovation.
The fourth stage is about the implementation. Often an innovation is not implemented exactly one-to-one, but rather partially modified according to the individual needs. This is what SCOT calls the discourse about the interpretative flexibility. The implementation phase may take some time. This stage ends, when the innovation becomes an integral part of society. It becomes common and loses its innovative strength.
The last stage is about the confirmation. It is about the decision whether to continuously use the invention or to withdraw from it. The individuals, and in a wider sense society, want to confirm their decision of the adoption of the innovation. In doing so, false expec- tations and incorrect use of the innovation might lead to disappointment.
At all stages of the diffusion process it is about reducing existing uncertainties. This is done, e.g. through collecting information, testing the innovation or a discussion about the innovation on a social level. The stage of implementation is only reached if the features of an innovation can convince in comparison to already existing other innovations. Fea- tures that lead to an adoption and ultimately a successful diffusion are low complexity, high compatibility, high availability for test runs and a high degree of presence within society in comparison to other innovations.
3 Robots in Japan
This chapter brings together relevant information about the relationship between robots and Japan in three steps. The first step is to clarify, what a robot is and if there are different understandings in regard to robots in Japan and other countries. The clarifica- tion and the definition of the term robot is an essential element of this study, because without a working definition, the analysis risks becoming blurred and this may lead to misconceptions. The second step is an introduction of coverage of Japanese robots within the media and academia. This primarily serves the function of a literary review, but also intends to give an impression about how robots are picked up by the media especially. At a later point of this study (see Chapter 6.8) there is a comparison of infor- mation within the media and the technical reality, whereby I assume that an information gap exists. The final step is to discover the state of the art within the field of care robotics in Japan. For this reason, the argumentational logic behind the idea to instrumentalize robots as the solution for the challenges of Japan’s steadily aging society is outlined. There will also be a closer look on demographic change in Japan and its impact on the care system, as well as political countermeasures for an aging population and decreas- ing work force.