Now I am going to take you through the essential details to look at when deciding which horse to lay. The five factors below are the primary variables you will need to assess the favourite on. We need our horse to have a question mark concerning it's ability on at least one of these factors.
PRIMARY WARNING SIGNS
GOING
The going simply describes what the ground conditions are like on the course. The descriptions are as follows; heavy, soft, good-to-soft, good, good-to-firm and firm.
The going is a very important factor in any horse race. Some horses can run equally well on any type of going but many have a preference.
What we are on the look out for is a favourite who has never run on a particular going before (this will usually be in maiden races), or a favourite with a poor record on that particular going.
This happens more regularly than you might think. You'll often see a horse that has been in sparkling form on soft tracks being favourite on a firm surface and being soundly beaten. A lot of punters negate to check even this simple factor.
BONUS TIP – The softer the ground the better it is for us layers. It is well known that favourites win a higher percentage of races when there is firm in the ground. If the going is good-firm or firm then we need other factors to go in our favour if we are to lay any horses. The heavier the going the more random the results tend to be.
DISTANCE
Along with the going, distance is the most important factor in a horse race. Some horses are better at sprinting whilst others have more stamina and prefer longer races.
As a general rule horses start off in the sprints and move up in distance.
You need to be on the look out for one of two things. Firstly a horse that is stepping up in trip for the first time. Whilst a horse might have done well at the shorter
distances if it is racing at a longer distance for the first time it's good form can be questioned. Even at the shorter sprints a step up of a furlong can be significant.
Or secondly a horse that has a poor record at the race's distance. For example you
might have a horse with excellent form over 1 mile but has had a couple of dodgy runs over 12 furlongs. Next time the horse runs 12 furlongs it is a possible laying opportunity.
BONUS TIP – Consider what distances a horse has been running at recently. Horses are animals of habit and if you see a horse running at a different distance to its most recent runs it could be a laying opportunity. Generally speaking a difference of 1.5 furlongs is enough for us to cast doubt over the favourite. Of course this wouldn't be classed as a primary reason to lay the horse but it could be a supplementary factor when deciding which horse to lay.
CLASS
As seen above there are different categories of race depending on the quality of the entrants. What we are looking for is a horse that is moving up in class and racing against better opposition than it has before.
What you may find is a horse being a short priced favourite in it's first conditions race simply because it won it's maiden comfortably. However it may well find itself up against horses who have also won their own maidens.
As well as races being named like maidens and conditions they are also given a class category depending on the prize money available.
The table below summarises the different classes for flat races:
FLAT CLASS SYSTEM
The lower the class the better quality the horses are and the more prize money available; Class 1 being the best horses and Class 7 the worst.
We are looking for horses who are moving up in class for the first time.
FIRST TIME RUNNER
If a horse is a short favourite on its first run then that is a great opportunity for laying.
Usually the horse will be a 2 year old and will be running in a maiden.
2 year olds are very inexperienced animals and it is impossible to gauge how well they will react to their first outing on the race course. Some horses take to races like a duck to water whereas others need several races to get used to it all.
The horse will be a short favourite due to its stable connections. Either it will have a popular trainer or the owner will have paid a lot of money for it. Just because it has a tall reputation this does not mean it will run well.
SURFACE
As explain previously the conditions of the ground have a huge impact on a horse's running ability. Hence a change of surface for a horse is also a big factor. If a horse is running on sand or turf for the first time then we will look to oppose it if other factors are also in our favour.
You will often find a consistent performer on the turf being a favourite on its AW debut but failing to live up to its reputation. It will often take time for a horse to familiarise itself with a new surface.
Over the past 10 years laying horses on AW tracks has been more profitable than on the turf. One main reason for this is because punters try to apply turf form and ratings to the all weather. They will overbet a favourite if it has done exceptionally well on the turf.
BONUS TIP – Laying favourites on the AW is most profitable during the winter.
This is because the flat season has finished and a lot of the form horses move on to the AW with good reputations and short prices, only to get beaten because they are not used to the surface.
WEIGHT
The weight the horse is carrying is the final factor we need to assess. More often than not in stakes races every horse will be carrying the same weight and any slight differences are negligible.
However it is in handicaps that weight becomes of the utmost importance. We need
to decide if the weight the horse is carrying will affect the favourite in any way. One way to do this is to check what weight the horse has carried in previous races. If it is carrying significantly more this time around then this will be a question mark over the horse.
Another way is to read the Racing Post's spotlight verdict on the horse's chance in the race. If the weight is going to be a problem they will usually point this out.
BONUS TIP – We do not lay favourites with 7+lbs penalty on the AW tracks as they statistically tend to run well.
TRAINER'S COURSE-WIN PERCENTAGE
This primary warning sign is different to the rest in that it can warn us off laying a favourite rather than being a factor in our favour.
This is simply a figure that shows what percentage a trainer wins at a particular course. It can be a really important factor in identifying a favourite that we should not lay.
Logic dictates that each trainer should have an about equal percentage for each course. But this is not the case. Usually a trainer has at least one course where it's horses do better than average and more often than not it is the course which is closest to the stable.
When a horse is trained near to a certain course the ground it trains on will be similar to the ground on the race track due to similar weather, soil types etc. This gives it an immediate advantage over the rest of the field as it is at home on those conditions.
Furthermore the travelling time to the race track is short. Horses are notoriously temperamental animals and can easily be unsettled by long journeys to the track which as you would expect worsens their performance.
I don't lay any horses where the trainer-course percentage is over 30%. In fact
sometimes I chose not to lay horses with a percentage under this. For example if the trainer of the favourite has a win percentage of 25% and the next highest for the race is only 10% I will often disregard this favourite and look at another race.