The Study Region and Respondent Profiles

The two surveys were undertaken in Morogoro and Iringa, which are neighboring regions in the central to eastern part of the country. The Morogoro Region is divided into four districts: Morogoro (town and rural area), Kilosa, Kilombero and Ulanga. The Iringa Region consists of five districts: Iringa, Njombe, Ludewa, Makete and Mufindi. Based on the 1988 census and at the regions’ population growth rates, the total population in 1998 is estimated at 1.58 million for each of the two regions (Table 11). Morogoro lies in the transition zone between unimodal and bimodal rainfall belts. Iringa has a unimodal rainfall pattern, i.e. only one rainy season. Two districts from each region were selected for both a pilot study and a follow-up study. These are Morogoro and Kilosa from Morogoro Region and Iringa and Mufindi from Iringa Region.

Both regions are accessible by railroad and by a good paved road extending from Dar es Salaam to Zambia. Morogoro town is the closest large urban area to Dar es Salaam, followed by Iringa. People staying in these regions are employed in various sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, manufacturing, construction, electricity and water, trade and commerce, government and community services.

Table 11. Population statistics for Morogoro and Iringa Regions.

Region Population 1988 Population 1998 (est.) Growth rate (1978- 1988) % Female % Male Average household size Morogoro 1 222 737 1 580 531 2.6% 50.5 49.5 5.3 Iringa 1 208 914 1 577 914 2.7% 53.2 46.8 4.8 Source: Adapted and calculated from Bureau of Statistics, 1988.

The total number of respondents was 198 in the pilot survey (April 1998) and 299 in the second survey (October 1998). The first survey included 99 respondents from Morogoro, and 99 from Iringa. In the second survey, 150 respondents were from Morogoro and 149 were from Iringa. Different households were covered in the two surveys, and the

questionnaires were slightly different. The results from the second survey are emphasized here, with the first survey serving as complementary information. Two-thirds of the respondents in each survey were men, and the average age of those surveyed was 44 years.

The average farm size was 2.1 ha, with each farm supporting an average of 6.4 persons. Most farms depend upon family labor supply during the year. Although some farms employ labor in the peak season through short-term contracts, the use of a permanent labor force is uncommon in Morongoro and Iringa.

The major crops grown in Morogoro and Iringa are maize, beans, cassava, cowpeas, and rice. On average, households plant 1.3 ha with maize, and market only about 10% of this. For traditional cash crops such as coffee, cotton, and bananas, as well as for diverse vegetables, the share marketed is much higher.

Farmers in Morogoro and Iringa receive most of their annual income (50-80%) from agricultural production. Animal husbandry is also common, with more than 40% of the

farmers receiving income from livestock. The share of farmers engaging in commercial business and wage labor is also quite high. The average contributions of different sources of income are shown in Figure 10.

40% 9% 19% 20% 31% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Liv estock Commerc ial buisness

Wage labour Fishing Handcraf t

Figure 10. Other sources of income (% of respondents).

5.5 Perceptions of Climate Variability

Farmers were asked to describe the weather in the 1997/98 season. In both regions, almost all respondents felt that the weather this season had been “not normal.” This was attributed to either too much rain or very heavy rains that were destructive. Only a handful said the rains were normal or just enough.

Most farmers (83%) said that the weather had negatively affected their production during the 1997/98 season. Some farmers failed to cultivate any crops due to the flooding of fields. The effects caused by heavy rains included: destruction of crops in the fields; increased vermin, pests, and crop diseases; washing away of fertilizer; and erosion. A few farmers (10%), all from Kilosa District, said the weather affected their production

positively, as rice fields were field with water. However, most of the farmers said that the effects were negative on other crops. Only 2% said there was no effect in production due to weather, and 5% had no comments. Only a few farmers (8%) received aid as a result of weather affecting their crops. The aid came from the Government and religious

organizations. The aid was in the form of seeds or food.

As in many other regions in Tanzania, farmers in the Morogoro and Iringa regions sometimes use environmental phenomena as weather indicators. The majority of respondents in the survey (87%) did not see any early signals of the year’s anomalous weather. Those who did (13%) cited signals such as a lunar eclipse, sighting of

“kakakuona” in a stream, sighting of a tortoise, outbreaks of insects and/or frogs, appearance of a certain star, the observation that “many birds were flying”, or the

Table 12. Early signs advanced for an abnormal season (% of respondents).

Signs Percentage

Outbreak of butterflies 27

Very sunny and hotter 27

Floods at the beginning of rains 27

Started raining too early 27

Dryness of previous season 36

Outbreak of brown ants 73

Animals called "maboka" moving from one mountain to another 9

Outbreak of frogs 9

A very cool condition 9

Rainy season started late 9

Occurrence of a rare species of animal called "kakakuona" 9 Occurrence of a rare species of birds called "lawalawa" 9 Have general knowledge of 10-year cycle of heavy rains 9

A circle around the sun at 8:00 a.m. everyday 9

Location of moon in early October 1997 signified the emergence of bad weather

9