The causes

As previously mentioned, there are two categories of environmental change, sudden and gradual. According to Hugo (2010), sudden environmental change is caused by extreme events (e.g. tsunami, flooding) that have large-scale impact, although people are often only temporary displaced. Gradual environmental change is the “migration response [..] more complex”, because social and economic factors are often involved (Hugo, 2010, p. 14). According to Thomas (2014) there are three main forms of how climate change affects migration and the displacement of people:

1. Sudden-onset events, such as floods and storms, that “force people to flee in the face of immediate, life-threatening harm” (Thomas, 2014, p. 806). However, populations that have become displaced by these events are “relatively short-term and short distance” displaced. In addition, they are often able to return to their homes post-disaster (Thomas, 2014, p. 806). Nevertheless, Thomas (2014) states that when these events happen again, it is to be expected that more people migrate in “anticipation to of such events in order to avoid future harms” (Thomas, 2014, p. 806). This is called anticipatory movements and can be permanent.

2. “Slower-onset climate change-related effects” will disturb the availability of natural resources, especially where the deprived populations of society are affected and economically dependent on their environment (e.g. fishers and farmers) (Thomas, 2014, p. 806). These changes can havea direct or indirect effect on populations to leave their and find a new livelihoods somewhere else. The displacement of this people can be temporary, but often permanent.

3. The climate change impact is incremental and therefore anticipated, such as sea level rise, fresh water sources etc. that affect the coast of low-lying islands, which makes eventually them uninhabitable. These incremental changes will result in the permanent displacement of people (Thomas, 2014).

Thomas (2014) concludes that these three forms together, will develop a broad variety of different types of environmental migration. Populations are not migrating only internal but also cross-border (Thomas, 2014). Moreover, the movement can be only for short period of time, recurring or permanent. It is important to acknowledge that the movement can be anticipatory, forced an be voluntary, as argued by Thomas (2014).

Nevertheless, focusing on the relationship between the environment and migration will “give large attention to causes of migration” (Stojanov, 2008, p. 130). Stojanov (2008) identifies five causes that give an overview of the most revealed causes that have influenced migration and the displacement of people (see Table 6 below ) (Stojanov, 2008).

Table 6 The principlecauses of environmentally-induced migration

Natural disasters Slow-onset changes Industrial and human- made accidents

Development projects Conflict and warfare

Earthquakes Climate change (global warming)

Environmental pollutions

Constructions (e.g. river dames)

Biological warfare

Floods Deficiency of safe water of drought

Disasters made by industries factories (e.g. chemical)

Irrigation of canals Destruction of the environment

Landslides Erosion, desertification of land and soil degradation

Nuclear disasters Mining of natural resources

Lack of natural resources create disasters (e.g. civil war)

Several coastal storms (include tropical storms)

Volcanic eruptions

Source: (Stojanov, 2008, pp. 130-132)

However, Myers (2005) observes that poverty can assist as an “additional push factor” related to environmental change, increasing displacement and migration flows (Myers, N., 2005, p. 2). He further states that there are also other causes that might pressure populations to move, such as “malnutrition, landlessness, unemployment, over rapid urbanisation, pandemic diseases and faulty government policies, together with ethnic strife and conventional conflicts” (Myers, N., 2005, p. 2). Moreover, water stress can also be seen as an additional push factor relating to environmentally forced migration and therefore developing a vicious cycle. The environmental change “leads to water stress, which leads to conflict, which leads to more migration, which leads to increasing pressures on water resources, thus increasing water stress and conflict, which in turn further fuels migration”, as argued by Hermans (2011, pp. 13-14).

Furthermore, Kälin (2010) differentiates five potential scenarios that might cause environmental migration (see Table 7 below). He argues that these five scenarios can assist in developing suitable policy and legal acts.

Table 7. Five potential scenarios that will cause environmental migration “Sudden-onset disasters” “Slow-onset environmental degradation”

“Small island sinking states”

“National governments appoint “areas as high- risk zones”

“Unrest seriously disturbing public order, violence or even armed conflict”

Floods, hurricanes, heavy rainfalls that cause mudslides

Sea-level rise, desertification, flooding, erosion and salinization of soil and groundwater

Sea-level rise Sudden-environmental threats, such as increased risk of mudslides or flooding’s in mountains

Environmental change have resulted in the lack of resources, such as water availability, drought, poverty

Source: (Kälin, 2010, pp. 85-86)

Firstly, “sudden-onset disasters” will develop mass displacement and rising economic costs (Kälin, 2010, p. 85). Secondly, “slow-onset environmental degradation” will reduce water availability in some regions while in others extreme continuing flooding’s occur (Kälin, 2010, p. 85). Thirdly, “small island sinking states” can be seen as a single case connected to slow- onset disasters. As a result of rising sea levels, the sovereign territory of small islands will be affected resulting in internal displacement, or the island will completely “disappear entirely from the surface of the earth” and can cause its populations to be permanently displaced in other states (Kälin, 2010, p. 85). Fourthly, “areas as high-risk zones”, need to be identified, because they are highly unsafe for people to live in the region where there are these kind of environmental threats (Kälin, 2010, p. 85). Henceforth, individuals will be relocated or displaced to safe areas, which can be voluntary or against their will. However, it is important to note that the difference between scenario one and four is that this situation has governmental support and action, which often makes a return to home possible. Lastly, “disturbing public order, violence or even armed conflict” could arise as a result of environmental change of the

lack of crucial resources (Kälin, 2010, p. 86).

Subparagraph conclusion

Sudden and gradual environmental change have effect on human migration and displacement for a temporary or permanently time period. Their displacement often develops social unrest that develops into civil conflicts, which will be further explained in subparagraph 3.2.3.