Myanmar experienced its first contested elections in more than twenty years on the 8 November 2015 (BBC News, 2015). The election intended to mark the final transition to democracy and thus the expectations of the outcome were high, especially due to the participation of Aung San Suu Kyi.
The result secured Suu Kyi and the NLD a landslide victory gaining 77 % of all votes corresponding to 887 seats out of the entire 1150 contested seats (BBC News, 2015). On the contrary the military-based USDP won merely 117 seats, correspond- ing to 10 %, and the military was constitutionally ensured 25 % of the seats and the possession of power to elect key ministries (BBC News, 2015). Due to this constitu- tional paragraph, it has been widely discussed whether the NLD will be able to im- plement real changes, as the military and military supporting parties still hold much power.
Succeeding the elections Suu Kyi has met with elite members of the military regime in order to enter informal settlements, which is supporting the argument that the new- ly elected government is in need of support from the regime in order to create change in Myanmar (Fuller, 2015). Although the population democratically ex- pressed their wish for change, it remains unclear how much power the military will be willing to renounce, resulting in the future of Myanmar continuously being very un- clear. Thus far the fundamental democratic right of freedom of speech has been granted the population, but still journalists and demonstrators are imprisoned for ex- pressing their beliefs (Haigh, 2015; Haigh, 2015). It consequently seems as though the President has had a change of heart in regards to democratizing Myanmar, and due to the annulled election results in the contested 1990 elections, anxiety might spread.
It does however seem highly unlikely that the regime will annul these electoral re- sults as the military has had long to plan this transition and ensuring constitutionally that this transition will not empower them (Holliday, 2008, 1042; Horsey, 2015). Moreover this election has been closely followed internationally and the final results will be seen as a test of how democratic Myanmar really is (Horsey, 2015). Aware of the international attention and pressure the military has publically stated that the re- sults of the elections will be tolerated (Holmes, 2015).
Nonetheless numerous uncertainties still seem to be present and thus becoming a mature democracy still does not seem to be within reach. This is especially influ- enced by the fact that Suu Kyi constitutionally is not able to become president. Though there is still uncertainty about who will take this position and if her proxy will fulfil her commandments (Constitution of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar (2008), 2008).
It might seem ironic that the democratically elected Burmese symbol of democracy will not be able to take seat as president of Myanmar, but it is all part of the military’s well-structured plan of staying in power (Weaver and Phipps, 2015).
Even so, the majority of the Burmese people continuously hope for democratic change in form of a new government. As does the Rohingya minority, in spite of the fact that politicians, including Suu Kyi, have been eerily silent in regards to vocalising improvement of their poor living conditions. This has been the subject of great inter- national disappointment and Suu Kyi and the NLD have been widely criticized for not speaking of the Rohingya minority. An NLD official has, however, excused the si- lence by stating that the party has other priorities, like leading to peace, a nonviolent transition of power, economic development and constitutional reform (Ramzy, 2015). The truth in this explanation should, however, be questioned and the actual explana- tion is probably the party’s wish to collect votes and keep a friendly political relation- ship with the monks. The Buddhist extreme nationalist movement will continue to closely watch whether the new government makes any effort in repealing laws sup- ported by the group, among these the enforcement of monogamy, religious conver- sion and interreligious marriage (Maung, 2015).
As the Buddhists are the majority in Myanmar, some voters could turn their back on the NLD if the party showed support for the minority, whom they perceive as an en- emy of the state. The recent elections in November were a big step in the direction
towards democracy, thus it is arguable that Suu Kyi and the NLD did not want to risk anything as there was a lot at stake.
The current situation does not seem to bring betterment for the Rohingya and the Burmese people in general. It is however difficult to predict the outcome of the gov- ernmental change in March 2016.
5. Conclusion
This study has discussed and scrutinized why the democratization process in My- anmar has marginalized the Rohingya in Rakhine State, which guided us to a clear answer for our research question.
As already predicted in the hypothesis, the transformation from an authoritarian re- gime to a democratically elected government, is contributing to nationalistic tenden- cies, which have been utilized by dominant groups that resulted in the exclusion of minorities. By applying Snyder’s theory of Nationalist Elite Persuasion in Democratiz- ing States, we have found that our hypothesis has been proved. This can be argued as Snyder describes an increased likelihood of ethnic conflicts through democratiza- tion processes, accompanied by the rise of ethnic nationalism.
Aforementioned concludes that the transition from a military regime to democracy in Myanmar has marginalized the Rohingya in Rakhine State through the implementa- tion of policies that encouraged the social exclusion of the minority. These were legit- imised through a process of logrolling that allowed ethnic nationalism to flourish in order to ensure that the elite of the military maintained power and influence through- out the process. Additionally this explains the violent ethnic conflicts in Rakhine State that caused the displacement and death of numerous Rohingya.
The common antipathy to the Muslim minority has been facilitated to bring about and manifest nationalism during the democratization, for the influential military elite to sustain power. After having examined the growing nationalism, we can conclude that log-rolling is one of the reasons for its efflorescence. The military has, in order to maintain power during the democratization process, both directly and indirectly sup- ported extremist Buddhist monks, such as the 969 movement that spreads hatred for the Rohingya. In return, as the Rohingya’s exclusion from the Burmese society is
very important to the extremist monks, they have expressed their support for the mili- tary. This clearly shows how the monks changed their stance during the democratic transition, as they went from protesting openly against the military, to becoming their allies.
The reason why the Rohingya have been marginalized, among the diverse other ethnic minorities in the country, is the long existing anti-Rohingya sentiment within the country, especially within the Rakhine state. This widespread antipathy for a Muslim minority has been facilitated to manifest and create nationalism during the democratization, for the influential elite to sustain power. Furthermore, this common antipathy has enabled the elite and the 969 movement to create the notion that Roh- ingya are a threat to the Buddhist way of living
With the military being able to ensure their power constitutionally, it was the initiating force of Myanmar’s democratization, while on the other hand it still has a clear inter- est in hindering the transition to a full democracy. Thus, this legitimized influence of the military elite questions whether the transition to a democracy is real or just a cover up process to maintain the military's power. The elections of 2015 with Aung San Suu Kyi, the country’s symbol for democracy, and her party securing a landslide victory, the political system in Myanmar may establish more democratic institutions that could lead to the change of the constitution. Nonetheless, Suu Kyi has already held different meetings with members of the military elite, thus we predict that the military will not lose its influence and the country’s ‘disciplined democracy’ will be maintained. If this prediction proves correct, it would concurrently mean no better- ment for the marginalization of the Rohingya and thus no improvement of their situa- tion in the near future.
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Appendix:
Abstract
This research project will provide an insight into the process of democratization in the Re- public of the Union of Myanmar in Southeast Asia.
It will examine the case of what the UN calls the most persecuted minority, the Rohingya, and how this plight has links to the processes of democratization in the country.
The theory of Nationalist Elite Persuasion in Democratizing State by Jack Snyder will be applied in order to explain the actions and interests of groups in states undergoing democra- tization, and provide a framework for understanding why minority exclusion can occur in young democracies.
By applying the theory to this case of the Rohingya in Rakhine State, extensive links were found between the process of democratization and ethnic exclusion in Myanmar.
It was found that an army elite, previously connected to the former Junta of the country have managed to transfer its pre-democracy executive power into the new democratic system of Myanmar. In correlation with Snyder’s theory this was done, by stirring up national and reli- gious sentiment among nationalist groups who have the exclusion of the Rohingya as one of their main goals. This in turn leads to the minority’s increased marginalization despite the introduction of democratic processes.
Finally, the paper will provide a prediction of what the future holds for Myanmar as the coun- try recently completed a historic election in November of 2015, the results of which will see the first opposition led government take power in the democratizing state.