Any large industry such as the automotive industry is slow to change, and with good reason. The original ethanol-based FFV was assisted with a federal subsidy to cover the engine modifications. If the broad mandate for FFV capability on most new cars goes through and if methanol production gears up, the compelling economics will cause consumer demand. This will create fueling infrastructure, perhaps assisted by one-time subsidies. At this point the risk of introduction of a high-efficiency FFV is minimal. By all accounts the automobile cost will be lower than for the gasoline counterpart of
equivalent performance. This is in part due to the smaller engine and the more inexpensive emissions control equipment.
The automobiles will appeal to the buying public for their defining characteristics of a small, high-performance engine with long range fueled by a cheaper alternative to gasoline. The feature of nearly half the carbon dioxide emissions per mile as compared to an equivalent gasoline engine will also appeal to some. This last comes about from the fact that methanol has about half the carbon of gasoline, which causes the mileage penalty in an ordinary engine. But the high compression feature simply makes the engine more efficient, in effect negating the low carbon penalty.
An interesting entrée could well be through the military. On the one hand, they should have an interest in more efficient fuel utilization to minimize fuel transported to the front lines. On the other, methanol production at major bases using the feedstock of convenience would not be out of the question. A civilian version of a military vehicle could then follow, much as happened with the Humvee (originally the High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle, or
HMMWV). Ironically, the high-efficiency FFV (Heffvee) would be almost the opposite of the gas-guzzling Humvee.
When Nobel Laureate George Olah and colleagues proposed the Methanol Economy (Olah, Goeppert, & Surya Prakash, 2009) first in 2006, they were a bit ahead of their time. Shale gas had not made its presence felt to assure a long-term future of moderately priced gas. Now the promise can be realized. While methanol will be the main driver in gasoline replacement, uniform acceptance of first FFVs and then Heffvees will allow for ethanol to be used as well. Gasoline will take its place as just another fuel, not the dominant one.
The Road to energy Independence
Responsible production of shale gas will essentially eliminate import of natural gas. That leaves the big ticket item—oil. Here, too, the notion of independence can usefully be defined as independence from distant and unreliable sources. The first step could be to target the oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian saber rattling today concerns that flow.
The EIA forecasts that in 2022 we will import 7 MM bpd, down from the 8.1 MM bpd in 2011 (EIA, January 23, 2012). I think that if pipelines are built from North Dakota, oil from the Bakken formation will eat into this number more than already forecast. But sticking with their figure, first subtract imports from Canada and Mexico. Canada can be expected to ramp up its current flow of 2.2 MM bpd to at least 3.0 MM bpd. We have a special relationship with the Canadians: the bulk of their oil can only be refined in the US. Aside from the high carbon footprint of this oil, this is a desirable and secure relationship. Mexico currently supplies 0.8 MM bpd. This is at considerable risk of decrease but we will leave it at that figure for 2022. This, too, is heavy oil suited to our refineries.
Of the 3.2 MM bpd balance, I estimate about 1.7 MM bpd passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, one strategy would be to target oil alternatives to that level. Ignoring for the present the fact that a barrel of oil does not generate a full barrel of transport fuel, we can target 1.7 MM bpd of oil replacement. A rough calculation of all sources indicates this is viable, as enumerated below:
• Sasol has already announced construction of a GTL plant in Louisiana reportedly rated at 96,000 bpd of fuel. Assume at least one other such, bringing the total close to 200,000 bpd from GTL emboldened by low gas prices.
Chapter 16. Advantage Methanol 113 • In my chapter on Alaska (chapter 13), I suggested means by which at least
200,000 bpd capacity could be added to the pipeline. Absent some such action, the 500,000 bpd currently sent down from Alaska is at risk due to pipeline economics.
• Long-haul trucks switching to LNG or methanol could reasonably target 20 percent of current fuel usage, which accounts for 0.5 MM bpd of oil. • Methanol, ethanol, CNG, biofuel, and electric cars could target 1.0 MM
bpd. A significant part of this, and relatively straightforward, would be CNG displacement of diesel in metropolitan public and commercial transport.
An angle other than a Strait strategy is a study of the marginal domestic barrel and what it replaces. New domestic oil production is all light sweet oil. This is most like the oil from Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. So that may make sense as the first to be displaced. The Saudi portion is, of course, Strait-related and currently stands at about 1 MM bpd. Similarly, the uptick in Canadian oil that I predict will displace heavy crude such as that from Venezuela, currently about 0.65 MM bpd. The main point is that crude quality is variable and refineries are choosy, so country strategies have to recognize this.
Shale gas produced responsibly will be a key enabler for methanol to be produced at prices attractive with respect to gasoline. Broad availability of FFVs and associated fueling infrastructure will give the public choice. Tomorrow that choice could include other alcohols or methane, and a suggested high-performance FFV will enable that. Today methanol appears to be particularly advantaged. Ultimately, gasoline (and diesel) can be rendered just another player, not a champion. Game, set, and match.