Objective three
Evaluate the susceptibility of major catchments to rainfall-induced river flooding.
The common theme of the objectives two and three is to develop approaches for susceptibility assessment with relatively low data requirements yet able to generate meaningful results for regional-scale planning. Through the modelling procedures it is also aimed to identify the most important factors controlling the occurrence of debris-flows and river floods as well as revealing limitations in evaluating these processes and the main sources of uncertainty.
Objective four
Develop an approach for multi-hazard and risk assessment suitable for highly dynamic environments. The proposed approach aims to provide a conceptual framework for multi-hazard / risk analysis.
1.5 Thesis structure
This thesis is organised into six chapters. Because of the inter-disciplinary nature of the study, chapters 2, 3 and 4 focus on different aspects of hazard analysis and include a review of relevant literature, description of methods, results, discussion and conclusions. These different aspects are brought together in chapter 5 to formulate the main stages of a multi-hazard analysis framework. In chapter six the conclusions and implications from each chapter are discussed through the lens of pre-event land use planning in the context of sustainable hazard mitigation at tectonically active mountains.
Chapter 2 explores regional patterns of landscape morphometric parameters in an effort to investigate tectonic, climate and surface processes which control the landscape evolution of the WSA and consequent hazards. Methods of quantitative geomorphology are applied via GIS to analyse the spatial variation of catchment morphometric parameters, the structure of drainage networks, channel longitudinal profiles of major rivers and valley geometries. Results provide insight into the spatial variation of uplift rates and dominant interrelated geomorphic processes.
Recognizing the link between the dominant geomorphic processes and hazards, the findings are used to identify the hazardscape of the WSA and reveal critical implications in hazard assessment and modelling.
16 In chapter 3 a GIS-based approach for shallow landslide and debris-flow susceptibility assessment is developed. Since slope failures are complex phenomena and their prediction involves many uncertainties, the application of fuzzy set theory in a GIS environment is investigated as a potential landslide susceptibility assessment approach, in an effort to minimize the uncertainties derived from non-linear relationships between conditioning factors and slope instability. A GIS-based model to estimate the runout path and distance of potential future shallow slope failures is also developed.
Both models are applied and evaluated in WSA.
Chapter 4 is concerned with modelling the spatial variation of rainfall-induced river flood susceptibility in the region. Initially the development of a GIS-based spatially distributed unit hydrograph model is described. The model aims to investigate the hydrologic response of major ungauged catchments in the study area based on their morphometry, land cover and soil characteristics, as well as providing a tool to predict runoff hydrographs using real rainfall intensity data. The model’s predictive performance and its potential as a tool to inform planning are evaluated by comparing the results with observed hydrographs. A GIS-based approach to delineate flood-prone areas is also developed. The relations between five critical factors and flood occurrence are established using fuzzy logic and historical flood events in the region. Finally, the factors are combined to generate the regional flood susceptibility map.
Chapter 5 integrates the results from chapters 2-4 and develops an approach for multi-hazard and risk analysis suitable for highly dynamic environments. The approach aims to provide a conceptual framework of the key stages underlying effective hazard and risk analysis in environments where geomorphic processes and consequent hazards are strongly interrelated. Each stage of the procedure is separately discussed using examples from the WSA. Particular focus is given to the various types of interactions between processes and an attempt is made to classify them in specific categories. To demonstrate the practical application of the proposed approach, a regional multi-hazard and exposure analysis was carried out in the central WSA.
In Chapter 6 the key findings from the four main objectives are outlined, followed by a discussion on the implications of the thesis’ findings for land suitability analysis and land use planning in the context of sustainable risk reduction and hazard mitigation.
17
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