Time

The time dimension is an important element in the diffusion process because it can explain both the innovation-decision process over a certain period, and the behaviour of the innovation adopter based on the innovativeness. According to Rogers (1995), the time dimension is involved in the diffusion process in three ways:

1) The innovation-decision process when an individual moves from the first-knowledge of an innovation through to its adoption or rejection;

2) How early or late a person enters the adoption system (innovativeness); and 3) The innovation’s rate of adoption in the system

The innovation-decision process is the process through which an individual passes from first- knowledge of an innovation to design-innovation, the decision to adopt or reject, to implementation and to confirmation of decision (Rogers, 2003, Rogers, 1995b). Rogers (2003) identified five stages in

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a diffusion trajectory: (1) first knowledge of the innovation; (2) forming an attitude toward the innovation (persuasion); (3) a decision to adopt or reject; (4) implementation of the new idea; and (5)

confirmation of this decision (Please see figure 3.2).

Later, this model was further elaborated by Ezzamel et al. (2014) in their study of the use of resource accounting and budgeting (RAB) in the UK central government. According to Ezzamel et al. (2014), the diffusion process begins with ‘prior conditions’, which include, among others, the recognition of problems and defects within the existing practice, as well as the desire to be innovative and adopt modern practice. The presence of these conditions plays a key role in determining the receptivity of a specific context to an innovation. An individual seeks information at various stages in the innovation-decision process in order to decrease uncertainty about an innovation.

Communication sources

(Channels) (Channels)

Figure 3.2 – Diffusion of an innovation process (Source: Rogers, 1995)

Knowledge Persuasion Decision Implementation Confirmation

Characteristics of innovation Adoption  Individual characteristics  Social characteristics  Perceived need for innovation Time Rejection

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Knowledge occurs when person becomes aware of an innovation and acquires some idea of how it functions. In this stage, individuals attempt to reduce uncertainty about the cause and effect relationship related to the innovation’s capacity to solve their problem(s) or address their need(s). At this stage, an individual wants to know what the innovation is, and how and why it works. Mass media channels are the main means used to introduce an innovation to a community.

Persuasion occurs when a person forms a favourable or unfavourable attitude toward the innovation. At the persuasion stage, an individual seeks innovation-evaluation information in order to reduce uncertainty about an innovation’s expected consequences. Here, an individual wants to know the innovation’s advantages and disadvantages as they apply to his or her own situation. Interpersonal communication via peer networking is particularly effective in conveying such evaluative information about an innovation. During this stage, the change agent is often introduced into the process. A change agent is an individual who influences the potential adopter regarding the innovation. This individual is a very powerful person in the process who can persuade the potential adopter to accept or reject the innovation.

A Decision takes place when a person engages in activities that lead to either adoption in order to make full use of an innovation, or to reject the innovation. Such decisions can be reversed at a later stage; for example, an innovation may be adopted after it had previously been rejected. It is also possible for an individual to discontinue the innovation after having adopted it. The innovation- decision can be categorized into three types: (1) Optional: an individual flexibility; (2) Collective: a balance between maximum efficiency and freedom; and (3) Authority: it yields a high rate of adoption, but produces high resistance.

Implementation occurs when the person puts an innovation into use. This stage involves an overt behavioural change.

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Confirmation occurs when a person evaluates the results of an innovation-decision already made. The adopter may reverse the adoption decision, if s/he is exposed to conflicting messages about the innovation based on the evaluation result. These six phases of the diffusion-adoption framework were adapted for data collection and data analysis processes to examine the impact of diffusion variables on the success of innovation adoption.

Innovativeness is the degree to which an individual accepts the innovation early by adopting new ideas more readily than other members of a social system. No two individuals in a social system adopt an innovation at the same time. There are five adopter categories, or classifications of the members of a social system on the basis of their acceptance and adoption of innovation: Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority, and Laggards (see Figure 3.3).

Figure 3.3: Innovation adopter category (Rogers 1995)

Innovators are represented by the first 2.5 percent of individuals in a system to adopt an innovation. The innovator plays an important role in the diffusion process: that of launching the new idea in the system by importing the innovation from outside of the system’s boundaries. Their interest in new ideas leads them out of a local circle of peer networks and into more cosmopolite social

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relationships. Communication patterns and friendship among a clique of innovators are common, even though the geographical distance between the innovators may be considerable. The innovators are able to understand and apply complex technical knowledge and able to cope with a high degree of uncertainty about an innovation at the time of adoption.

The Early Adopters represent the next 13.5 percent of the individuals in the system to adopt an innovation. Early adopters are a more integrated part of the local system than are innovators. Whereas innovators are cosmopolites, early adopters are localities. This adopter category, more than any other, has the greatest degree of opinion leadership in the social system. Potential adopters look to early adopters for advice and information about the innovation. This category is generally sought by change agents as a local missionary for speeding the diffusion process.

The Early Majority is the next 34 percent of the individuals in a system to adopt an innovation. This group will adopt an innovation a little earlier than the average person will and is more likely to deliberate about the innovation’s usefulness prior to acceptance. The early majority interact frequently with their peers, but seldom hold positions of opinion leadership in a system.

The Late Majority is the next 34 percent of the individuals in a system to adopt an innovation. The late majority make up one third of the members of the system and adopt an innovation later than their early adopter counterparts do. Adoption may be the result of increasing network pressures from peers. For this group, the pressure of peers is necessary to motivate adoption.

The Laggards are the last 16 percent of the individuals in a system to adopt an innovation. They possess almost no opinion leadership. Laggards tend to be suspicious of any innovation, and they take a great deal of time to decide whether to adopt. They are almost isolates in the social networks of their system and their resources tend to be limited.

Rate of adoption is the third way in which time is involved in diffusion. The rate of adoption is the relative speed with which an innovation is adopted by members of a social system. The rate of

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adoption is usually measured by the length of time required for a certain percentage of the members of a system to adopt an innovation (Rogers, 1995b). When a number of individuals adopting a new idea are plotted on a cumulative frequency basis over time, the resulting distribution is an s-shaped curve. At first, only a few individuals adopt the innovation in each time period; these are the innovators. Then the trajectory of the rate of adoption begins to level off, as fewer and fewer individuals remain who have not yet adopted. Finally, the s-shaped curve reaches its asymptote, and the diffusion process is finished.

There are also differences in the rate of adoption of the same innovation in different social systems. This indicates that diffusion cannot be explained only by the nature of individual behaviour. The system has a direct effect on diffusion, and also an indirect influence through its individual members. What is a social system?