Transition Dynamics

Transition Dynamics is concerned with understanding and explaining how transitions in societal systems (e.g. sectors or regions) come about and how they can be recognised. This section does not aim to give a complete overview of this sub-fi eld of transition studies, but will introduce its main concepts and will elaborate on the concepts that are considered relevant for the development of a conceptual framework on transition experiments.

The three main Transition Dynamics concepts include (Figure 2.1):

1. The multi-level perspective (MLP), which describes the dynamics of transitions as the interactions between three diff erent functional scale levels: the macro-, meso- and the micro-level. Transitions take place when developments on these three levels strengthen each other in one and the same direction, i.e. when modulation occurs (Rip and Kemp, 1998, Geels and Kemp, 2000, Rotmans and Loorbach, 2010).

2. The multi-phase concept3_{, which describes the dynamics of transitions in terms of}

diff erent stages: pre-development, take-off , acceleration and stabilisation (Rotmans et al., 2001, Rotmans, 2005).

3. The multi-pattern concept, which distinguishes diff erent patterns of transitions (Geels and Schot, 2007, De Haan, 2007, 2010).

3. Because the case studies in this thesis mainly take place in the pre-development stage, this chapter will not elaborate on the multi-phase concept. A recent elaborate description of this concept is provided by Rotmans and Loorbach (2010).

40 Chapter 2

The fi eld of Transition Dynamics is theoretically grounded in diff erent scientifi c disci- plines, the most important ones being complex systems theory and integrated systems theory (Rotmans and Loorbach, 2010).4 _{Empirically, Transition Dynamic concepts have} been applied in multiple case studies: the multi-level perspective was most frequently applied in various historical case studies of transitions (Verbong, 2000, Geels, 2005); the multi-phase concept was applied to analyse various past and ongoing transitions in sectors such as energy, water management and waste management (Rotmans et al., 2000, Rotmans, 2003, Van der Brugge et al., 2005, Loorbach, 2007) and the more recent multi-pattern concept is based on existing historical case studies but has not been ap- plied in new case studies yet.

The multi-level perspective can be applied as an analytical tool to separate a societal system in three (nested) levels of aggregation. Figure 2.2 illustrates how each lower level is nested in a higher level that is more resistant to change and therefore changes more gradually. A transition is the result of non-linear interactions between these three levels of a societal system. A societal system can be further distinguished in three diff erent sub-systems (regimes, niches and niche-regimes) that are embedded in the landscape (Haxeltine et al., 2008, De Haan and Rotmans, 2009, Rotmans and Loorbach, 2010, De Haan, 2010). In recent literature on transitions these three sub-systems are understood as constellations.

A constellation is defi ned as a societal sub-system that contributes a specifi c part to meeting a certain societal need (De Haan and Rotmans, 2009). The regime is dominant in fulfi lling the societal need. Examples are the fossil fuel regime that is dominant in

4. This thesis will not elaborate on the scientifi c disciplines that underlie the sub-fi elds of the fi eld of transi- tion studies. The conceptual framework on transition experiments that is developed in this thesis, is aimed at contributing to the fi eld of transition studies; therefore, this fi eld of research (and not the disciplines on which its sub-fi elds are based) is regarded as the main theoretical background.

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the energy domain and the automobile regime that dominates the mobility domain. A regime can be defi ned as the dominant structure, culture and practices with the incum- bent power and vested interests in a societal system (Rotmans, 2005). Niches are societal sub-systems that deviate from the regime5 _{and provide a context for experimenting} with new, sustainable practices and related culture and structure. Early literature on transitions mainly described niches as a deviant selection environment or as a (partly) protected space that enables experimenting and learning (Kemp et al., 1998, Hoogma et al., 2002). In more recent transition literature, the niche concept is used to study how from sequences of local projects or experiments a niche-level emerges (Geels and Raven, 2006).6 _{Experiments therefore also contribute to niche development. Hence, the} relationship between experiments and niches is recursive: niches enable learning pro- cesses in experiments and are also shaped by learning processes (Figure 2.3). However, the literature lacks a clear defi nition of niches that unites both perspectives (section 3.3 will elaborate on this as part of the conceptual framework on transition experiments).

A niche-regime can be defi ned as a constellation of culture, practices and structure that challenges the power of the regime in fulfi lling a societal need.7 _{“A niche-regime} represents a niche that has grown powerful enough to gain a number of new charac- teristics, the most important of which is the ability to attack (sometimes eff ectively) an incumbent regime” (Rotmans and Loorbach, 2010:136).

The constellations of niches, niche-regimes and regimes are nested in the landscape, which can be understood as the environment of the societal system. The landscape en- compasses large-scale and long-term developments like cultural trends, demographics, international politics, worldviews, etc.

5. Niches also have less power, lower stability and more fl exibility than the regime.

6. Geels and Raven (2006) distinguish local projects that are carried by local networks and characterised by local variety from a global niche-level that is carried by an emerging fi eld or community and characterised by shared rules. In the process of niche-development sequences of local projects can gradually add up to a global niche-level.

7. “Constellations providing a viable or even competitive functioning when compared to the regime and thus do have considerable power, though not dominating the functioning of the societal system, are called niche-regimes. As their name suggests they have characteristics somewhere between niches and the re- gime.” (De Haan and Rotmans, 2009:6)

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Figure 2.3 Recursive relation between niche and experiment: niches make transition experiments

possible and at the same time experiments also create or reinforce niches (Van den Bosch and Rotmans, 2008)

42 Chapter 2

An important basic notion in transition literature is that new practices can infl uence the related structure and culture and vice versa. Though constellations of practices, cul- ture and structure have a certain rigidity, they are also dynamic, which makes a change in a sustainable direction possible. Constellations that interact can therefore infl uence each other. However, regimes are much more diffi cult to infl uence than niches and the landscape has a highly autonomous character and can only be infl uenced in the long- term or by external shocks like a disaster or crisis.

The multi-phase concept can be used to describe the dynamics of transitions in time, in terms of alternating phases of relatively fast and slow dynamics that together form a strongly non-linear pattern (Figure 2.4, Rotmans et al., 2001):

1. A predevelopment phase of dynamic equilibrium where the status quo does not visibly change.

2. A take-off phase where the process of change gets under way because the state of the system begins to shift.

3. An acceleration phase where visible structural changes take place through an ac- cumulation of socio-cultural, economic, ecological and institutional changes that react to each other. During the acceleration phase, there are collective learning processes, diff usion and embedding processes.

4. A stabilization phase where the speed of social change decreases and a new dy- namic equilibrium is reached.

Based on the multi-phase concept, transitions can thus be understood as a shift from one dynamic state of equilibrium to the other. However, there are still a number of un- known aspects of the multi-phase concept (including the indicator on the vertical axis, the time period on the horizontal axis, the number of transition phases and the ultimate

System indicators Time Take-off Acceleration Pre-development Stabilization

point of irreversibility) (Rotmans and Loorbach, 2010). Moreover, the literature on the multi-phase concept does not describe how the diff erent transition phases relate to the concept of transition experiments. Therefore, the multi-phase concept is not applied as a central concept in this thesis.

The multi-pattern concept is a recent Transition Dynamics concept that has been studied from diff erent perspectives (Geels and Schot, 2007, De Haan, 2007, Haxeltine et al., 2008). This thesis builds upon the recent theoretical research of De Haan and Rotmans (2009) and De Haan (2007, 2010), who have developed three key concepts to under- stand the dynamics of transitions: (I) conditions for transitional change, (II) patterns in transitions and (III) transition paths. This section will only introduce the multi-pattern concept because this concept is most relevant in understanding the role of transition experiments in processes of transitional or ‘transformative’ change. The multi-pattern concept distinguishes between three transition patterns8_:

 Empowerment: Small constellations gain power and become a competitor for the incumbent regime. Through empowerment niches can grow into niche-regimes, in other words ‘small-scale initiatives become viable alternatives to mainstream ways of doing’. Empowerment for example is when biological agriculture becomes responsible for a considerable part of our food supply.

 Reconstellation: A constellation is ‘installed’ (through infl uences from outside the societal system) and powerful enough to be a direct viable alternative for the re- gime functioning. Reconstellation would be that a large-scale biological agricultural system was constructed, for instance on government initiative.

 Adaptation: The regime responds to conditions for transitional change and adapts its functioning to keep on meeting societal needs. A regime can adapt by taking over some functional aspects of other constellations.

Transition experiments mainly play a role in the patterns of empowerment and adapta- tion because reconstellation does not start with small-scale experimentation.