Using Stakeholder Knowledge to Understand the Future

The stakeholder, ‘anyone significantly affecting or affected by someone else’s decision-making activity’ (Chevalier, 2001, p.1), is consulted in most managerial projects, which aim to influence decision-making. The concept of using stakeholder analysis is now used in several fields, ranging from political sciences to international relations, and conflict resolution (Chevalier, 2001), as well as business administration and project management (Fletcher, Guthrie, Steane, Roos, & Pike, 2003).

Stakeholders are an essential element in project planning and management (Cleland, 1997). It is important to consider a stakeholder position, view and vision within any project to form a holistic picture of the impact of the project on stakeholders and the environment in which the stakeholders are active. The definition of a stakeholder is broad and has to be adapted to the individual project (Fassin, 2009). Every socio-ecological system has various stakeholders, some of which might have sufficient expertise to be able to provide information on how possible futures could appear. An involvement of stakeholders that are experts in the particular field in question can create new knowledge and offer insights into complex problems that could not be addressed without the knowledge provided by expert opinion (Clayton, 1997; Cooke, 1991).

One method to include experts in learning for the future is the Delphi method. The Delphi method2 is a forecasting technique developed in the 1950s and ‘60s by the

2 _{The Delphi method is also known as ‘Delphi technique’ and ‘Delphi approach’, with the terms}

46 American RAND Corporation (Sackman, 1974). It first found use in technological forecasting and was intended to be used to forecast likely inventions, new technologies, and the social and economic impact of such developments (Adler & Ziglio, 2002). During its early development, the technique was used in a variety of disciplines such as forecasting social phenomena (human attitudes and values) and quality of life (Sackman, 1974), the impact of new land use policies, and other impacts in health, environmental, economic, and social policies (Adler & Ziglio, 2002). The aim of a Delphi method is the facilitation of a group communication process, mainly through the voice of experts.

‘Delphi may be characterized as a method for structuring a group communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem’ (Linstone & Turoff, 1975, p. 3). A Delphi technique is structured as a multistage system of questionnaires, based on informed judgement. The original technique requires anonymity of the participants (instead of direct confrontation in a group), who are usually a group of selected experts. The avoidance of face-to-face interaction is seen as a key advantage of the approach. Controlled interaction appears more conducive in the formation of independent opinions, as compared to direct confrontation, which often results in the impulsive formulation of statements (Dalkey & Helmer, 1962). The questionnaires are answered in written form by the group of experts who are considered to have deep knowledge of their field and are, therefore, able to give valuable estimates regarding future developments (Vorgrimler & Wübben, 2003). The series of questionnaires can be interspersed with feedback rounds of the intermediate results, which give the participants the opportunity to adjust and refine their previous answers, when compared to the answers of the other experts (Brown, 1968; Vorgrimler & Wübben, 2003).

It is argued that the method is also suitable for situations in which uncertainties and imperfect knowledge are an inevitable part of the data collection (Kaynak, Bloom, & Leibold, 1994). It provides a chance to move forward in complex situations, which are often not easily dealt with through lack of data, or hard proof. It is, therefore, a valuable tool in qualitative research, chiefly because of its potential in problem solving, decision making, and group consensus (Häder & Häder, 1998).

47 The critical evaluation of the literature has demonstrated that the Delphi method is an effective tool to learn about the future from experts (i.e. stakeholders) of a socio-ecological system. This can also be concluded from the study published by Rowe & Wright (1999), who summarised several Delphi studies according to their group size, number of rounds, nature of feedback, and nature of subjects. Okoli & Pawlowsi (2004) also compared the Delphi method to conventional surveys in an information system environment.

Besides the broad application potential of the Delphi technique, it has also been applied in studies, assessing ecosystem service value changes to support spatial planning (Navrud & Strand, 2017; Scolozzi, Morri, & Santolini, 2012), as well as investigating governance of protected areas (Mehnen, Mose, & Strijker, 2012) and ecosystem services for education (Ruppert & Duncan, 2017). All studies conclude that the Delphi is a suitable method when assessing factors that influence ecosystems.

The inclusion of stakeholders in the process of learning for the future requires suitable methods such as the Delphi technique. Exploring the wide range of applications of the technique reveals options and opportunities to include stakeholders in the research. Limiting factors such as limited opportunities for discussion and open exchange of information can be addressed through modifications (section 3.6.4). Exploring ecosystem service provision within a socio-ecological system benefits from external input of stakeholders (Uhde et al., 2017) and allows the researcher to integrate the newly found knowledge into other methods to investigate the socio-ecological system.