The value of deeper foresight

Slaughter (2002) asks six questions against three modes of futures enquiry, culminating into a pattern of interpretations, known as Structural Mapping Matrix (Shown in Table 1) which indicates the possible achievements from both a single approach as well as from a combination of approaches. Slaughter (2002) argues that the introduction of breadth to the depth element moves the process of methodological development ahead. In elucidating the Structural Mapping Matrix, Slaughter (2002: 495-506) proposes three layers of analysis namely; Pop futurism, Problem-oriented futures work, and Critical and epistemological futures studies. Pop futurism is mostly apparent stories that are normally superficial and can be seen in the media front. In this realm, the author posits that ‗change‘ is a challenging concept that has not being fully understood but used many times. Similarities are realised between the ‗litany‘ and pop futurism in that problems are imminent at this stage and continuously reproduced in the global media. Items in the pipeline are predominantly gadgets that are intended to improve lives of people.

Futures Studies (CLA)

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Pop Futurism Problem-Oriented Critical & Epistemological

(The litany) (Social Sciences) (Discourse, metaphor, myth

& worldview)

What stays the same? Seldom asked Rules Nothing

What are the key trends Technology Laws, rules, regulations etc.

Empirical, social etc.

What are the main change processes?

Snapshots of change

Insights into specific areas

A major area of interest

What are the most important problems? Outrageous or restricted to the 'litany' Major focus of enquiry

Problems are problematic without a deeper view

What are the new items 'in the pipeline'?

Mainly new gadgets

Use of environ. scanning

and foresight methods

Highly problematic

What are the sources of inspiration and hope?

Wealth, power, technical development

New agendas, taking charge

Cultural critique, reconstruction and renewal of worldviews

Source: Adapted from Slaughter, 2002

Slaughter (2002: 495-506) refers to the second layer (problem oriented futures work) as the core of the mainstream futures activity. Looking closely into the six applied questions, the first being: ‗what stays the same‘, there are strong expectations of continuousness in the apparent social associations and the rules, regulations etc. controlling them. The important trends are typically seen affecting the social and economic realms. The main aim of this kind of analysis is to come up with incremental changes in the system of checks and balances that allow institutions to adapt to a changing world. A lot of focus is put on the techniques of rational exploration, which are reinforced by unregarded worldview assumptions about the capability of people to regulate and control the world. That is why a lot of focus is put on the framing of new laws, rules, regulations, etc. (Slaughter, 2002: 495-506). Environmental scanning and the analysis of trends are used as methods to establish a forward view of issues. These methods are used to analyse possible new ‗items in the pipeline‘ by: identifying signals, following the development of emerging challenges and as such coming up with solutions to their implications. The creation of well- founded responses to well-studied problems are the sources of inspiration and hope, e.g. creating new agenda items, re-directing policies and creating social or organisational innovations (Slaughter, 2002: 495-506).

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According to Slaughter (2002:495-506), critical and epistemological futures work (third layer) utilise the techniques of post-modern analysis and critique to ‗peel away‘ the layers of received perspective and separate the fundamentals of social life: the social creation of actuality. At this point, nothing remains the same since everything is in motion. The significant developments at this layer are not coming from the outer world and are not visible to empirical ways of knowing. They are somewhat separated by in-depth consideration on, and involved in, the fundamentals of social frameworks. Hence, the trends of interest at this stage are those that occur at the layer of underlying values, opinions, customs, etc. Change processes are seen as extremely unstable, challenged and continuously strongly revealing of underlying causes and motivations. These include social interests, power relations, definitional power and a wide range of civilisational ‗givens‘ (Slaughter, 2002:495-506).

Slaughter (2002: 495-506) also highlights that problems are challenging/problematic at this point. Problems often take one back to the social setting in which they were constructed, defined, framed in ways that show the constitutive interests of particular actors. Similar to perceptions and meanings, problems, are without doubt intertwined with a lot of assumptions that are not visible until analysed and critiqued by trained professionals. ‗Items in the pipeline‘ are similarly viewed as being problematic. Sources of inspiration and hope at this layer are positioned in a strong and unambiguous contrast to the shared view of prevalent meaninglessness that stalks much postmodern questioning. In this context, the techniques of postmodern analysis that disclose the provisionality of many of the fundamentals of social life also disclose many of the options for regeneration and reclamation. Slaughter (2002:504) writes: ―Thus, following acts of critique and deconstruction lie the grounds of recovery, the renewal of meaning and purpose. What transforms this otherwise cold methodology is that it is powered by transpersonal energies and inspiration. Hence, the ultimate purpose of futures work at this layer is to open out productive mind-spaces, to design in-depth social innovations and to prefigure more advanced stages of civilised life. Inherent in this process are many powerful sources of inspiration and hope‖.

The Structural Mapping Matrix is basically divided into three sections i.e. layers of analysis. Firstly pop-futurism carries an approach that represents the actualities that are

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out there in the media scene. Slaughter (2002:506) states: ―Taken alone, it arguably retards the progress of FS towards maturity and acceptance because it produces caricatures of the world and is invariably disappointing‖. The second layer, problem- oriented layer, is currently a popularly used mode of work around the globe. The reason for its popularity is that, the approach puts emphasis on social problems and the construction of resolutions to them. The third layer of analysis, critical and epistemological, digs a lot deeper than the first two layers in that it allows us to challenge the problems emanating from change and transformation. Slaughter (2002:506) also states: ―This work is deeper, more risky and more challenging‖.