The World Model

The WORLD model is in development and is an integrated model for the world economic system, based on biological and physical realities of the world. Figures 7.3 and 7.4 show how the model is constructed. The components of the WORLD model were outlined earlier (Fig. 4.2). In Figure 7.5 the integration of the WORLD model with the German econometric GINFORS model is shown to combine into a new SIMRESS model. This modelling was commissioned by the German government which has put a serious focus on Germany having a resource based, zero carbon economy by 2030. To our knowledge no other government in the world has such advanced thinking. The German government commissioned Harald to lead the modelling, just like he had done for the critical load work earlier (see above).

Figure 7.5 The chart shows how the WORLD model interacts with GINFORS in the SIMRESS model system.

The WORLD model was used in this study to estimate the rise, peak and decline of some empires and check this against available data to assess the accuracy of our predictions. Table 7.1 shows data on rates of resource discovery, resource extraction and wealth creation over time, cost over wealth overshoots and predicted civilisation declines, and an attempt at a preliminary prognosis. Resource peaks are for land, coal, oil and metals. The decline dates assume that governance and society continues along the practice of Business As Usual, without any consideration of effective measures to attain sustainability. Bold

numbers in italics in Table 7.1 are model predictions – very approximate years, normal font dates are the observed dates based on historical data. There is a 40-year delay between discovery peak and resource peak. The wealth peak is about 10 years after the resource peak. Costs start to become larger than wealth about 15 years after the wealth peak. Collapse occurs around 20 years after costs are larger than wealth. Possibly, modern society has more sophisticated means of postponing the ramifications of long-term sustainability (Roberts, 2013). Through derivatives, market distortions, corruption and money creation, extisting value can be better and more completely siphoned off to cover up for deficits, making the crash all the more disastrous and complete (Roberts, 2013).

The tentative WORLD model outputs in Table 7.1 show possible futures resulting from a Business As Usual assumption. The purpose of such scenarios is to create the understanding that Business As Usual may not be the best planning for the future, and to avoid unpleasant potential future situations like those suggested by Table 7.1, some fundamental and real changes would be required (Roberts, 2013). When reading the numbers, remember that model outputs give possible scenarios, and no guarantee that the predicted date events really will happen.

Table 7.1

Known resource discovery, resource extraction and wealth creation peaks, cost over wealth overshoots and civilisation collapses, assessed with early proto- types of the WORLD model. Italics are model predictions very approximate years, black dates are the observed dates based on historical data. Resource peaks are for land, coal, oil and metals. The potential collapse dates assume that governance and society continues along the practice of Business As Usual, without any consideration of effective measures to attain sustainability (adapted after Sverdrup et al., 2013c).

Empire

Predicted with meta-model based on the WORLD5-model, calendar year Discovery peak Resource peak Wealth peak Cost larger than wealth Predicted collapse Observed collapse Roman 14 AD 80-120 120-160 180-220 240-280 First 287 Final 400 Norwegian 1066-1100 1220-1280 1292 1330 1340 1349-1450 Swedish 1520 1632 1688 1712 1732-1750 1788-1809 British 1888 1928 1938-1943 1958-1963 Dismantled 1947-1965 Spanish 1520 1550 1565 1580-1600 1620-1660 1700-1750 Great Britain 1965 1988 2000 2010-2020 2025-2040 ? Soviet 1932 1948 1960 1985-1990 1995-2005 1990-1993 Russian 1932 1993 2005 2020-2025 2035-2045 ? American 1955 1971 1983-1986 1998-2006 2015-2025 ? Chinese 2000 2020-2025 2035-2040 2050-2060 2060-2080 ? Indian 1990 2040-2048 2052-2065 2068-2080 2077-2090 ? Global 1975 2007 2017-2022 2040-2060 2060-2080 ?

7.2.1 Peak world and the end of the golden age

Oil is peaking now, and coal will peak in the near future; peak oil production was passed in the period 2008-2010, the coal peak comes in the period 2015- 2020, peak energy will occur in 2015-2020 and thus may anticipate that wealth peak will arrive around 2017-2022. From then on global growth of GDP will be impossible without increased efficiencies, and a new economic paradigm for supply of life quality to the citizens must be in place (Costanza et al., 2014). There is a delay of 50 years between initial investment, and the cost of maintenance for infrastructural renewal was assumed to increase by 1.5 % per year. The WORLD model, used to produce the model runs presented in this study is similar to the approach taken by Meadows et al. (1972, 1992, 2004) in their World3 model, presented in the Limits to Growth study. However, they considered energy and material resources all together, so missing the dynamics when they are coupled but separate, as shown here. Materials can be recycled very well, whereas much of energy use in its fundamental function is non-recyclable.

There are convincing examples where resource exhaustion is the cause for social crisis and potentially also war. For documented past examples, see for China: Zhang et al. (2007), for Easter Island: Bahn and Flenley (1992), but also more general considerations: Ehrlich (1968), Hardin (1968), Meadows et al. (1972, 1992, 2004), Tainter (1988, 1995, 1996), Ehrlich and Ehrlich (2013), Diamond (1997, 2005), Leslie (1998), Ash (2002, 2009), Haraldsson andSverdrup (2004), Tilly (2003, 2007), Klein (2007), Lövin (2007), Greer (2008), Sachs (2008), Brown (2009b), Rockström et al. (2009), Fukuyama (2011). We conclude that lack of resources is a potentially dangerous situation globally. The solutions to our sustainability problems are as much in the social domain as any other domain, and engineering and economics interact with the social machinery. However, people and social processes control and shape behaviour. The sustainability challenge is thus a social challenge and the willingness to change people´s and society´s behaviour. The use of all resources available to us at maximum rate as we do now, creates a significant limitation for future generations, and such behaviour carries ethical consequences (Costanza and Daly, 1992; Holmberg et al., 1996; Beder, 2000; Holmberg and Robèrt, 2000; MacIntosh and Edward-Jones, 2000; Heinberg, 2001, 2005; Lietaer, 2001, 2003; Ainsworth and Sumaila, 2003; Lietaer et al., 2010).

In 1973, when the United States went through local peak oil, and started importing large amounts of oil from the Middle East, the world had a warning of what happens when global peak oil is passed. The world went through an oil crisis at the same time. The assessment made by the Club of Rome, the Limits

to Growthreport that was published in 1972 (Meadows et al., 1972, 1992, 2004),

predicted the coming of resource and energy scarcity for the beginning of this millenium and the ramifications afterwards. The lessons were heeded by a few and then quickly forgotten by both the public and politicians (Nørgård et al., 2010; Kanninen, 2013; Turner, 2014). At that point politicians failed in their states- manship and their strategic planning. Economic science failed in not applying

systems thinking, not understanding the basics of exponential economic growth, not understanding that the Earth is limited by mass balance, and not learning from past historical experiences with collapses and declines (Tainter, 1988, 1996; Greer, 2008; Heinberg, 2001, 2005, 2011; Fukuyama, 2011).

The world is fast moving towards its limits. As presented in this Perspective, we see peak behaviour in most of the strategically important metals, materials and fossil fuels that are fundamental to running of our societies. The crisis we experienced in 2007-2009 in the western world was not only a financial crisis, but also a crisis that showed the first symptoms of resource-backed economic growth that cannot be sustained because of the physical limits of the world (Meadows et al., 1972; Tainter, 1988, 1996, 1997; Greer, 2008; Jackson, 2009; Hein- berg, 2011; Arnarson et al., 2011; Bardi, 2013; Sverdrup et al., 2013a,b; Ragnars- dottir et al., 2014a). In a world of limits, planning for further growth is a fool’s policy that will fail. There are still influential people stuck in denial of the finite nature of resources. A too large global population in a world of physical limits for resource extraction will most likely be a world of great poverty. When the resources continue to decline at the same time as the population rises, the situa- tion will get worse. This is one of the largest challenges ever faced by mankind. Every problem is a challenge, every challenge is an opportunity, and every opportunity turned into a solution is a success. Solutions must be found. All of us, including geochemists, need to rise to the occasion to find the solutions. Busi- ness As Usual is the worst case. There are many possible ways forward, there are many solutions to develop, and there is much change needed to make it all work. For example new development indicators are needed, that go beyond GDP (e.g., Kubiszewski et al., 2013; Costanza et al., 2014; Ragnarsdottir et al., 2014a). Solutions thinking is very much at the core of sustainability science. This is the reason why Vala was happy to take on the responsibility as an associate editor of the fusion magazine/academic journal Solutions, which publishes articles focusing on solutions for a sustainable and desirable future.