• No results found

For Personal Use Only Do Not Forward

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "For Personal Use Only Do Not Forward"

Copied!
13
0
0

Loading.... (view fulltext now)

Full text

(1)

S&P 500 Internals - Past Year

3100 3300 3500 3700 3900 4100 4300 4500 4700

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Price and Trading Range

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

50-DMA Spread (%)

0 20 40 60 80 100

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Percentage of Stocks Above 50 & 200-DMAs

50-DMA 200-DMA

-5 5 15 25 35 45 55

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Net % of Stocks At 52-Week Highs

24 26 28 30 32 34

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

PE Ratio 14000

14400 14800 15200 15600 16000 16400

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Cumulative AD Line -30

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

10-Day Advance/Decline Line

After declines throughout September and the first half of October, the S&P 500 has finally re- versed higher with today’s 1.65% gain being a big part of that. The S&P 500 is on the verge of moving back above its 50-DMA and is now green over the past five days. Not only that, but the past month and a half’s downtrend has now been broken.

Breadth has generally improved as well, and like price, today’s session alone is playing a major role in that recovery in breadth. Today’s session is on pace to finish as an all-or-nothing day (net breadth of (+/-400); the first positive all or nothing day since July 9th.

In addition, the percentage of stocks above their 50 and 200-DMAs have both been recovering alongside the number of stocks hitting new 52-week highs.

Index/Sector 5-Day % Chg Current 1 Wk Ago

S&P 500 0.81 N N

Cons Discret. 1.37 OB N

Cons Staples 1.25 N OS

Energy 3.56 OB OB

Financials 0.08 OB OB

Health Care -0.11 OS OS

Industrials 0.90 N N

Materials 2.81 N N

Technology 1.28 N N

Comm. Svcs -0.57 N N

Utilities 1.03 N OS

Circle represents current level.

Tail represents where index was one week ago.

OS N OB

Sector Prices vs Trading Range

(2)

Communication Services Sector Internals - Past Year

180 200 220 240 260 280 300

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Price and Trading Range

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

10-Day Advance/Decline Line

-6 -3 0 3 6 9 12

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

50-DMA Spread (%)

14750 15250 15750 16250 16750

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Cumulative AD Line

0 20 40 60 80 100

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Percentage of Stocks Above 50 & 200-DMAs

50-DMA 200-DMA

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Relative Strength vs S&P 500

0 10 20 30

40

Net % of Stocks At 52-Week Highs

25 27 29 31

33

P/E Ratio

• Most of the market has turned around, but Communication Services stocks have been lagging behind to a degree. The sector is down 0.57% over the past five days, although, it has come out of oversold territory.

• Breadth as measured by the 10-day advance decline line continues to fluctuate between posi- tive and negative readings; none of which reached extreme levels.

• The percentage of stocks above their 50 and 200-DMAs have also been relatively stable recent-

ly. Currently, just over half of the stocks in the sector are above their long term moving aver-

ages, and just under half are above their 50-DMAs.

(3)

Consumer Discretionary Sector Internals - Past Year

1100 1200 1300 1400 1500

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Price and Trading Range

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

10-Day Advance/Decline Line

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

50-DMA Spread (%)

5300 5600 5900 6200 6500 6800 7100

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Cumulative AD Line

0 20 40 60 80 100

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Percentage of Stocks Above 50 & 200-DMAs

50-DMA 200-DMA

-16 -12 -8 -4 0 4

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Relative Strength vs S&P 500

0 10 20 30 40 50

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Net % of Stocks At 52-Week Highs

35 40 45 50 55 60 65

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

PE Ratio

• Consumer Discretionary is making a bid at breaking out of its pattern of consolidation that has been in place since the summer.

• Today the sector is three-quarters of one percent below its 52-week high set on July 26th as it also reenters overbought territory for the first time since September 27th.

• While price has not yet broken out, on a relative basis to the S&P 500 the past year’s down- trend has broken.

• The percentage of stocks above their 50-DMAs has also made a solid move higher and moved

back above 50%.

(4)

Consumer Staples Sector Internals - Past Year

600 630 660 690 720 750 780

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Price and Trading Range

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

10-Day Advance/Decline Line

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

50-DMA Spread (%)

21200 21500 21800 22100 22400 22700 23000

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Cumulative AD Line

0 20 40 60 80 100

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Percentage of Stocks Above 50 & 200-DMAs

50-DMA 200-DMA

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Relative Strength vs S&P 500

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

30

Net % of Stocks At 52-Week Highs

21 22 23

24

PE Ratio

• Consumer Staples was one of the most oversold sectors this time last week, but the 1.25% rally over the past five days has left it right below its 50-DMA.

• While the sector still needs to rally another 0.26% to move back above its 50-day for the first time since September 16th, short term breadth has run hot.

• The 10-day advance decline has moved back into overbought territory for the first time since late August.

• While the percentage of stocks above their moving averages has recovered slightly, there has

yet to be a positive reading in net new highs.

(5)

Energy Sector Internals - Past Year

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

12 32 52 72 92 112 132

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

P/E Ratio

190

220 250 280 310 340 370 400 430 460

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Price and Trading Range

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

10-Day Advance/Decline Line

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

50-DMA Spread (%)

7800 8200 8600 9000 9400

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Cumulative AD Line

0 20 40 60 80 100

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Percentage of Stocks Above 50 & 200-DMAs

50-DMA 200-DMA

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Relative Strength vs S&P 500

-20 0 20 40 60 80

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Net % of Stocks At 52-Week Highs

Negative Earnings

• Energy continues to dramatically outperform with the sector adding on another 3.5% rally over the past five days.

• Given the rally has hardly slowed, the Energy sector is on pace today to finish over two stand- ard deviations above its 50-DMA for the fifteenth day in a row.

• Going back to 1990, there have only been two other stretches of extreme overbought streaks that lasted for longer: January 2018 (18 sessions long) and February 2005 (19 sessions long).

• Not only has the sector consistently been overbought, but 100% of stocks are above their mov-

ing averages.

(6)

Financials Sector Internals - Past Year

360 400 440 480 520 560 600 640 680

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Price and Trading Range

-40 -20 0 20 40 60

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

10-Day Advance/Decline Lines

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

50-DMA Spread (%)

18600 19100 19600 20100 20600 21100 21600

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Cumulative AD Line

0 20 40 60 80 100

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Percentage of Stocks Above 50 & 200-DMAs

50-DMA 200-DMA

-4 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Relative Strength vs S&P 500

10 30 50 70

90

Net % of Stocks At 52-Week Highs

14 16 18 20

22

PE Ratio

• Financials are yet another sector that is eyeing a breakout from the highs that have repeatedly been tested throughout the summer and into this fall.

• Although it is fairly flat over the past week, today the sector has come within half of one per- cent of its 52-week high.

• While Financials are one of three sectors that are overbought at the moment, breadth is not yet at an extreme as measured by the 10-day advance decline line.

• Over 90% of the stocks in the sector are above their 200-DMAs, and while a quarter of the sec-

tor still needs to take out their 50-DMAs.

(7)

Health Care Sector Internals - Past Year

1150 1250 1350 1450 1550 1650

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Price and Trading Range

-32 -24 -16 -8 0 8 16 24 32 40

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

10-Day Advance/Decline Lines

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

50-DMA Spread (%)

18000 18400 18800 19200 19600 20000 20400

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Cumulative AD Line

0 20 40 60 80 100

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Percentage of Stocks Above 50 & 200-DMAs

50-DMA 200-DMA

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Relative Strength vs S&P 500

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Net % of Stocks At 52-Week Highs

20 21 22 23 24 25

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

PE Ratio

• Health Care has been one of the most beaten down sectors.

• Health Care stocks have fallen 6.7% from the September 3rd 52-week high. No other sector is down by as wide of a degree from its respective high.

• Additionally, it is the only sector that currently trades a full standard deviation below its 50- DMA.

• Breadth has also been atrocious but recovered slightly in recent days.

• The 10-day AD line is deeply negative but off of oversold levels while the percentage of stocks

above their 50-day is the lowest of any sector at 18.75%.

(8)

Industrials Sector Internals - Past Year

575 625 675 725 775 825 875 925

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Price and Trading Range

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

10-Day Advance/Decline Lines

-6 -3 0 3 6 9 12

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

50-DMA Spread (%)

15500 16000 16500 17000 17500 18000

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Cumulative AD Line

0 20 40 60 80 100

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Percentage of Stocks Above 50 & 200-DMAs

50-DMA 200-DMA

-4 0 4 8 12

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Relative Strength vs S&P 500

10 20 30 40 50 60

70

Net % of Stocks At 52-Week Highs

33 38 43 48 53

58

PE Ratio

• For most of 2021, the Industrials sector has been stuck trending sideways. Throughout Sep- tember and the first half of October, Industrials were testing the low end of that range, and outside of a couple of pump fakes, it has appeared to have held up at that support.

• The cumulative AD line has also held up at support at the low end of its range as short term breadth has moved back into positive territory.

• With a 0.9% gain in the past five days, the Industrials sector is currently right below its 50- DMA.

• While the sector has yet to move above its moving average, there has been a pick up in the

percentage of the sector’s stocks above their own 50-DMAs.

(9)

• The Materials sector has also recently held up at support, but it has yet to move above the lower highs set in the late summer.

• With that said, Materials have been the second best performing sector in the past five days with a 2.81% gain.

• Additionally, at a sector level the index has retaken its 50-DMA.

• Many individual stocks in the sector have done the same. The percentage of stocks above their 50-DMAs has more than doubled since yesterday.

• The cumulative AD line has also held up at the low end of its recent range.

Materials Sector Internals - Past Year

375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Price and Trading Range

-45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 60

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

10-Day Advance/Decline Line

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

50-DMA Spread (%)

9500 9800 10100 10400 10700 11000 11300 11600

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Cumulative AD Line

0 20 40 60 80 100

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Percentage of Stocks Above 50 & 200-DMAs

50-DMA 200-DMA

-6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Relative Strength vs S&P 500

-20 0 20 40 60

80

Net % of Stocks At 52-Week Highs

20 22 24 26 28 30 32

34

PE Ratio

(10)

Real Estate Sector Internals - Past Year

200 220 240 260 280 300 320

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Price and Trading Range

-42 -28 -14 0 14 28 42 56

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

10-Day Advance/Decline Line

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

50-DMA Spread (%)

0 20 40 60 80 100

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Percentage of Stocks Above 50 & 200-DMAs

50-DMA 200-DMA

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Relative Strength vs S&P 500

10 30 50 70

90

Net % of Stocks At 52-Week Highs

50 55 60 65 70 75

80

PE Ratio

6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Cumulative AD Line

• Real Estate has also posted a better than 2% rally in the past five days alone as breadth runs very hot.

• The 10-day advance decline line is back into extreme overbought territory and at one of the highest levels of the past year.

• While the past week’s rally has not been enough to lift the sector back above its 50-DMA, many members of the sector have retaken their moving averages. That reading has gone from a low of 13.79% at the end of September to 69% today.

• The percentage of stocks above their 200-DMAs never collapsed and currently sits above 90%.

(11)

Technology Sector Internals - Past Year

1850 2000 2150 2300 2450 2600 2750

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Price and Trading Range

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

10-Day Advance/Decline Line

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

50-DMA Spread (%)

0 20 40 60 80 100

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Percentage of Stocks Above 50 & 200-DMAs

50-DMA 200-DMA

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Relative Strength vs S&P 500

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Net % of Stocks At 52-Week Highs

30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

PE Ratio

12200

12600 13000 13400 13800 14200 14600

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Cumulative AD Line

• Tech stocks are breaking out of the past month and a half’s downtrend, but the group has not yet retaken its 50-DMA.

• Short term breadth as measured by the 10-day AD line has moved off of oversold levels and is looking at its first positive reading since October 5th and the strongest reading since Septem- ber 7th.

• The relative strength line remains range bound around zero.

• The percentage of stocks above their moving averages and making new 52-week highs have

both been moving higher but are far from fully recovered.

(12)

Utilities Sector Internals - Past Year

270 290 310 330 350 370

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Price and Trading Range

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

10-Day Advance/Decline Line

-10 -5 0 5 10

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

50-DMA Spread (%)

33500 34000 34500 35000 35500 36000

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Cumulative AD Line

0 20 40 60 80 100

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Percentage of Stocks Above 50 & 200-DMAs

50-DMA 200-DMA

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10

10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21 10/21

Relative Strength vs S&P 500

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

35

Net % of Stocks At 52-Week Highs

16 18 20 22

24

PE Ratio

• Utilities got crushed with the rise in rates, but there has been some relief recently as the sector made a higher low.

• Although price is coming off of oversold levels, breadth is running hot.

• The 10-day advance decline has made a vertical move higher reaching overbought territory.

• That strong breadth also meant that the percentage of stocks above their moving averages have recovered.

• Two-thirds of the sector is above their 200-DMAs and 21.4% are above their 50-DMAs versus

Monday’s lows of 25% and 0%, respectively.

(13)

S&P 500 Sector Weightings - Past Year

7 9 11 13 15 17

'90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 Consumer Discretionary

1 3 5 7 9 11 13

'90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 Communication Serivces

4 6 8 10 12 14 16

'90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 Consumer Staples

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17

'90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 Energy

5 10 15 20 25

'90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 Financials

6 8 10 12 14 16 18

'90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 Health Care

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

'90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 Industrials

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

'90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 Materials

2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4

9/16 3/17 9/17 3/18 9/18 3/19 9/19 3/20 9/20 3/21 9/21 Real Estate

4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36

'90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 Technology

2 3 4 5 6

7 Utilities

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100% Utilities

Technology Real Estate Materials Industrials Health Care Financials Energy Cons. Staples Cons. Discret.

Comm. Svcs.

References

Related documents

Some notable core packages include: java.lang, which contains fundamental classes needed by the Java language itself; java.awt, which contains classes of the Java Abstract

"Important Manuscript Collections at Utah State University." An invited paper presented at the American Historical Society Pacific Branch meeting.. Salt Lake

Aunque las destrezas con el cuchillo y el caballo siembran los dos textos, y definen la valentía como característica distintiva del paisano, la idealización

In the moderately fertile soil, compost addition significantly increased plant height, leaf number, and corn yields (Table 7)+. Plant height at the highest rate was about two

Hussain, Hashmi and Saghir (2011), inspect the relationship between working capital management and profitability and study found that when firms maintain

Revolver may be used on Bermudagrass that is overseeded with a cool season grass (ryegrass and Poa trivialis , for example) to control annual bluegrass, provided that the

Thanks are due to Oregon State University, the Oregon State University Extension publishing unit and Mark Anderson-Wilk for rapid dissemination of this document, the Oregon

■ Modify code that creates a menu with a custom menu defproc at runtime (rather than from a resource) to use the new Carbon Menu Manager API CreateCustomMenu.. Obsolete