EQUITY WEEKLY STRATEGY
Equity Weekly Strategy
24 de julio de 2012
1
Falls in Crisis
In the last 5 years the stock market has experienced sharp declines. Two of the most recent
were the financial crisis in the U.S. (2008-2009), and the European debt crisis that reached
one of its strongest points in 2011 and continues until today.
In 2008 market crash led to the S & P500 to retreat about 48% in less than 6 months. As a result of large falls on Wall Street, the
contagion to other markets was imminent. In the same period the IGBC fell more than 30% and many of the assets that have
shaped this index did so in greater proportion.
In 2011, even the falls in the U.S. market were lower, reaching only setbacks of 20%, meanwhile the impact on the Colombian
stock follow throw.
Despite the low exposure of the income of most Colombian companies into international markets, we found a strong correlation
between domestic asset prices and international markets.
The emerging market umbrella has not served to cover the local market of volatility in developed markets.
Notably, in the local market there are some assets that offer greater strength in times of stress or high volatility and would
operate as a shelter in future crises. Corficol, Bogota, Aval and Nutresa have shown strong resistance to decreases in the
international stock markets, going back much less than the stock indexes.
Furthermore, within assets more recoil or increased exposure to international crisis companies are exploration and production of
crude traded on the local market, which like oil react more than proportionally to the volatilities from the global concerns.
Also, a factor associated with resistance or eventual correlation of the assets in the local market before the volatility of
international markets, responds to the fundamentals of the companies that slow falls to positive outlook.
2
Ingresos Utilidades Igresos Utilidades Ingresos Utilidades
GRUPOSURA 96,658 78,227 157,015 178,223 186,056 214,680 92.5% 18.5% 174.4% 20.5% INVARGOS 1,465,565 110,264 1,620,931 222,841 1,561,768 222,688 6.6% -3.6% 102.0% -0.1% CEMARGOS 848,696 357,425 1,055,188 255,496 1,048,013 136,097 23.5% -0.7% -61.9% -46.7% NUTRESA 1,149,123 57,645 1,237,546 59,604 1,320,000 70,000 14.9% 6.7% 21.4% 17.4% BANCOLOMBIA 1,390,000 385,527 1,753,320 445,570 1,790,000 355,000 28.8% 2.1% -7.9% -20.3% AVAL 430,000 321,000 471,000 394,400 503,000 503,000 17.0% 6.8% 56.7% 27.5% DAVIVIENDA 1,764,425 128,150 892,000 215,000 620,000 150,000 -64.9% -30.5% 17.1% -30.2% BVC 16,126 5,904 18,958 11,465 17,222 5,863 6.8% -9.2% -0.7% -48.9% PMG (CAD) 332.3 215.7 298 80.6 270 75 -18.7% -9.4% -65.2% -6.9% PREC (CAD) 957.51 349.38 931.85 258.35 900 225 -6.0% -3.4% -35.6% -12.9% CNEC (CAD) 47.9 8.92 48.63 3.66 55.7 9.8 16.3% 14.5% 9.9% 167.8% ECOPETROL 16,218,209 3,751,299 17,970,416 4,273,942 18,061,918 4,455,480 11.4% 0.5% 18.8% 4.2% BIOMAX 246,832 1,440 637,192 4,579 656,307 6,298 165.9% 3.0% 337.4% 37.5% EEB 330,896 56,872 373,383 540,005 350,749 64,995 6.0% -6.1% 14.3% -88.0% ISAGEN 409,417 123,785 423,352 122,123 424,156 112,520 3.6% 0.2% -9.1% -7.9% ISA 1,059,791 79,791 1,141,663 99,457 1,095,823 73,168 3.4% -4.0% -8.3% -26.4% ÉXITO 2,101,829 65,645 2,455,425 93,754 2,357,208 54,216 12% -4% -17% -42.2% PFAVTA 1,610,142 2,025 1,588,445 47,539 1,540,792 46,113 -4% -3% 2177% -3.0% CONCONCRETO 100,878 6,017 110,072 13,064 106,770 12,019 6% -3% 100% -8.0%
*Cifras en Millones de Pesos y en Millones de Dólares Canadienses según se indique
2T 2011 1T 2012 2T 2012 Est. 2T 2011 VS 2T 2012 1T 2012 VS 2T 2012 2T 2011 VS 2T 2012 1T 2012 VS 2T 2012 Retail Industria Hi droca rburos GEA Fi na nci ero Energético
Estimation Corporate Results 2Q Colombia
Comparing 2011Q2 results to 2012Q2
expected results; they show an increase in
revenue for 15 of 19 companies analyzed and
increased earnings for 12 of 19.
Also, comparing 2012Q1company results to 2012Q2 show an
increase on revenue for 8 of 19 companies and utilities for
11of19 companies. These preliminary estimates, will give the
overall expectation of further declines in the local equity
market.
Specific results that the market will focus, Bancolombia,
GRUPOSURA, Success, Ecopetrol and companies engaged in
upstream oil sector.
In this line, we hope that Ecopetrol income for the 2Q will be of
$ 18.06 billion (+11.4% vs. Q2 11) and net profit of $ 4.45 billion
(+18.8% vs. Q2 11). Noteworthy the recent recovery in
international oil prices, and for the next months, to keep levels
above $ 90 continue the bet on oil state and its expansion plan,
which settled some doubts in line with the decreases in future
cash flows.
Asset valuations subtracted or who are still included in the price
expectations of positive results, in line with Q2 estimates;
GRUPOSURA (P / BV: 0.98), Nutresa (P / BV: 1.51) and
Endorsement (P / VL: 1.30).
Compañía Fecha Publicación Resultados Confirmado /Esperado
Ecopetrol SA ma rtes , 24 de jul i o de 2012 C
Exi to SA ma rtes , 24 de jul i o de 2012 C
Mi neros SA mi ércol es , 25 de jul i o de 2012 E Fa bri ca to SA mi ércol es , 25 de jul i o de 2012 E
Grupos ura jueves , 26 de jul i o de 2012 C
Cema rgos jueves , 26 de jul i o de 2012 C
Enka jueves , 26 de jul i o de 2012 E
Cel s i a vi ernes , 27 de jul i o de 2012 E
Col tejer vi ernes , 27 de jul i o de 2012 E
Va l orem vi ernes , 27 de jul i o de 2012 E
Grupo Argos vi ernes , 27 de jul i o de 2012 C
Conconcreto vi ernes , 27 de jul i o de 2012 E
Ta bl ema c vi ernes , 27 de jul i o de 2012 E
Grupo Nutres a vi ernes , 27 de jul i o de 2012 C
Bi oma x vi ernes , 27 de jul i o de 2012 E
ISA l unes , 30 de jul i o de 2012 C
Interbol s a l unes , 30 de jul i o de 2012 E
Is a gen l unes , 30 de jul i o de 2012 C
Odi ns a l unes , 30 de jul i o de 2012 E
Pa z del Ri o l unes , 30 de jul i o de 2012 E
Ba ncol ombi a mi ércol es , 01 de a gos to de 2012 C Petromi nera l es vi ernes , 03 de a gos to de 2012 E Corfi col ombi a na vi ernes , 03 de a gos to de 2012 E Hel m Ba nk SA vi ernes , 03 de a gos to de 2012 E Da vi vi enda vi ernes , 03 de a gos to de 2012 E Pa ci fi c Rubi a l es Energy jueves , 09 de a gos to de 2012 E
EEB l unes , 13 de a gos to de 2012 E
ETB l unes , 13 de a gos to de 2012 E
Grupo AVAL ma rtes , 14 de a gos to de 2012 E
Avi a nca Ta ca ma rtes , 14 de a gos to de 2012 E Source: ACVA, Bloomberg
Equity Weekly Strategy
24 de julio de 2012
3
ECOPETROL 4.985 34,4% Buy
Buy the expectation of financial performance for w hich predicted an increase of +18% Y / Y, despite the fall in oil prices, Level Goal $ 5,180 pesos to break the $ 4980 is strong resistance w here
EXITO 30.800 38,7% Sell In liena w ith corporate earnings estimates suggest Q2 sales over $ 30,000, w ith option to repurchase may decline to levels close to $ 27,500.
PFBCOLOM 28.240 -1,8% Buy
In the case of Bancolombia are technically buying zone betw een $ 26,770 and $ 27,300 -Possibility of decline after the delivery of results on Monday, August 1, results for w hich w e expect a negative result (-7.9% Y / Y)
PREC 40.660 -12,8% Buy
Despite low expectations for the company's revenues (-6.0% Y / Y), the recent promotion of improved oil prices for the company's expectations for the next quarter. Transportation issues, the approval of environmental permits and falling oil prices are effects that has already included the price. Medium-term goal $ 43,000
CEMARGOS 7.210 -35,2% Sell
Taking profit on the 7,300, w hich w ould imply a price prior to the issuance of $ 12,580, (Invargos 17,000), up 14% to the low est recorded in the last 6 months. Data released by DANE show declines in sales of cement that could indicate slow dow n in the second utility trimestre.Estimación
EEB 1.050 -30,2% Keep The asset has stabilized w ithin a side channel, discounting the obvious discouragement that generated the majority shareholder appears to be deducted from the asset's fundamental value GRUPOSURA 30.980 -12,1% Buy We maintain Buy recommendation, earnings results next Thursday so w e expect a positive
market reaction for the second time to consolidate the results of Sura Asset Management. ISA 11.780 -4,5% Keep
The asset is located in a side channel w ith the 12,000 strong roof. The entry into operation of new projects in w hich the companies have been investing refers to the possibility of rising in the second half of the year.
INVERARGOS 17.040 -7,4% Buy Suggested purchase betw een $ 16,000 and $ 17,000 w here the asset level is resistance. Short-term goal of over $ 17,500 and medium-Short-term structural betw een $ 18,000 and $ 18,500.
ISAGEN 2.490 8,0% Sell During the w eek profit taking levels betw een $ 2,500 and $ 2,550 w here no resistance to the last 3 months. Point repurchase $ 2,250 and $ 2,300
CELSIA 4.470 -0,8% Sell Making profits for buyers of first half of July. Marked decline in trading volumes. Chance of overw eight at levels below the $ 4,300 in connection w ith the adjustment.
FABRICATO 92 28,9% Sell Tip of sale before possible clearing of repo company for increased security. The value of repos is about 37% of the market capitalization of the asset.
PFAVAL 1.185 -8,1% Buy
Estimates for the 1st quarter results indicate possible valuation of assets, w hich in recent w eeks minimum touched November 2011. In the medium term correction of the asset should have half of the side channel w here it has moved $ 1,230
NUTRESA 20.840 -4,8% Buy Buy at levels below $ 21,000 pesos, in the medium term objective over $ 21,650, good expectations for earnings grow th of the group (+21% Y / Y)
PFDAVVNDA 21.800 -0,5% Buy Purchase during the w eek w ith the $ 22,280 goal, next resistance level
CORFICOLCF 32.160 0,5% Keep Estimates for the 1st semester results are positive, any increase in earnings per share of w hich is decreed dividends from October to February next year (6.9% Yiel Div)
CNEC 795 -54,1% Buy Estimated results for the fiscal year end positive asset reaches the low est since 2009, possibility of recovery dependent on oil price movements.
PFAVTA 4.085 -15,6% Sell Recommendation sale prior to operating results, ongoing promotions crude recente w eaken the trend show n by the asset. Sale over $ 4,000 and no correction target to $ 4,300
PMGC 17.200 0,0% Sell
Notables descensos en la producción y proximidad a los resultados operacionales enmarcan un mal escenario para la compañía que no ha logrado reestablecer sus niveles típicos de ingresos, evidenciando la caída del éxito exploratorio.
BVC 30 -25,3% Sell
PFHELMBANK 518 48,0% Buy The return of rumors about the bank's sale to an international participant, recent transactions in the local market on average 3x the assets of financial institutions. Intrinsic Price $ 284 per share.
Weekly
Recom Com m ents
IGBC Last Price Pesos Variac. Anual
Positions Recommended
Global Disclaimer
This document is informative. Acciones & Valores is not responsible for the interpretation of such information. But it does not cover all aspects that an investor may consider necessary or desirable to analyze their decision to participate in the transaction here mentioned, because it is presented in abbreviated form. Therefore, it is necessary for investors who intend to participate in transactions, and for purposes of having full and absolute accuracy, consult all the documents provided by the promotion. Similarly, investors they should, on their own legal and financial analysis for purposes of taking any investment decision. Values and numbers entered here are obtained from market sources believed to be reliable such as Bloomberg, Reuters and the Issuers. The scores made in the report should not be considered investment advice nor as substitutes for the grades given by certified credit agencies such as Moody's or Standard & Poor's. These ratings are only quantitative, not qualitative factors include and depend on the financial information available on the market in time to be prepared. The opinions, estimates and projections in this report reflect the current judgment of the author to the report date, and clarifies that the content of the information contained herein may be subject to change without notice. The remuneration of the authors is not associated with the results of the report or the recommendations made. The presentation and any preliminary paper on the products mentioned here do not constitute a public offer binding, therefore, both presentation and any other document may be supplemented or corrected. © 2012 Acciones & Valores S.A.
Héctor Wilson Tovar García Análisis Macroeconómico
Head of Research [email protected] (0571) 325 78 00 (1300)
Ana Milena Franco Análisis Renta Fija
Fixed Income Analyst [email protected] (0571) 325 78 00 (1833)
Cristian Camilo Lancheros Análisis Mercados Internacionales
International Markets Analyst [email protected] (0571) 325 78 00 (1306)
Jorge Eduardo Bello Análisis Renta Variable
Equity Analyst
[email protected] (0571) 325 78 00 (1304)
Roberto Carlos Paniagua Análisis MILA Junior Analyst [email protected] (0571) 325 78 00 (1304) Kelly Mateus Análisis MILA Junior Analyst [email protected] (0571) 325 78 00 (1304) Alejandro Alayón Análisis MILA Junior Analyst [email protected] (0571) 325 78 00 (1304) Rocio Alayón Análisis MILA Junior Analyst [email protected] (0571) 325 78 00 (1304)
