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DEMAND FORECAST MAD, RSFE, TS

Atlanta Atlanta 3 weeks

Week Demand 3 weeks 5 weeks Week

-5 45 1 -4 38 2 -3 30 3 -2 58 37.67 4 -1 37 42.00 5 1 33 41.67 41.60 6 2 45 42.67 39.20 7 3 37 38.33 40.60 8 4 38 38.33 42.00 9 5 55 40.00 38.00 10 6 30 43.33 41.60 11 7 18 41.00 41.00 12 8 58 34.33 35.60 13 9 47 35.33 39.80 10 37 41.00 41.60 11 23 47.33 38.00 12 55 35.67 36.60 13 40 38.33 44.00

DEMAND FORECAST MAD, RSFE, TS

Boston Boston

Week Demand 3 Week 5 Week Week

-5 62.00 1 -4 18.00 2 -3 48.00 3 -2 40.00 42.67 4 -1 35.00 35.33 5 1 26.00 41.00 40.60 6 2 35.00 33.67 33.40 7 3 41.00 32.00 36.80 8 4 40.00 34.00 35.40 9 5 46.00 38.67 35.40 10 6 48.00 42.33 37.60 11 7 55.00 44.67 42.00 12 8 18.00 49.67 46.00 13 9 62.00 40.33 41.40 10 44.00 45.00 45.80 11 30.00 41.33 45.40 12 45.00 45.33 41.80 13 50.00 39.67 39.80

DEMAND FORECAST MAD, RSFE, TS

Chicago Chicago 3 weeks

(2)

-5 62 1 -4 22 2 -3 72 3 -2 44 52.00 4 -1 48 46.00 5 1 44 54.67 49.60 6 2 34 45.33 46.00 7 3 22 42.00 48.40 8 4 55 33.33 38.40 9 5 48 37.00 40.60 10 6 72 41.67 40.60 11 7 62 58.33 46.20 12 8 28 60.67 51.80 13 9 27 54.00 53.00 10 95 39.00 47.40 11 35 50.00 56.80 12 45 52.33 49.40 13 47 58.33 46.00

DEMAND FORECAST MAD, RSFE, TS

Dallas Dallas 3 Weeks

Week Demand 3 Week 5 Week Week

-5 42 1 -4 35 2 -3 40 3 -2 64 39.00 4 -1 43 46.33 5 1 27 49.00 44.80 6 2 42 44.67 41.80 7 3 35 37.33 43.20 8 4 40 34.67 42.20 9 5 51 39.00 37.40 10 6 64 42.00 39.00 11 7 70 51.67 46.40 12 8 65 61.67 52.00 13 9 55 66.33 58.00 10 43 63.33 61.00 11 38 54.33 59.40 12 47 45.33 54.20 13 42 42.67 49.60

DEMAND FORECAST MAD, RSFE, TS

LA LA 3 weeks

Week Demand 3 weeks 5 weeks Week

-5 43 1

-4 40 2

(3)

-2 46 45.67 4 -1 35 46.67 5 1 32 45.00 43.6 6 2 43 37.67 41.4 7 3 54 36.67 42 8 4 40 43.00 42 9 5 46 45.67 40.8 10 6 74 46.67 43 11 7 40 53.33 51.4 12 8 35 53.33 50.8 13 9 45 49.67 47 10 38 40.00 48 11 48 39.33 46.4 12 56 43.67 41.2 13 50 47.33 44.4

(4)

MAD, RSFE, TS Atlanta 3 weeks

Demand Forecast Actual Deviation RSFE Abs. Dev Sum of Abs. Dev

41.67 33 -8.67 -8.67 8.67 8.67 42.67 45 2.33 -6.33 2.33 11.00 38.33 37 -1.33 -7.67 1.33 12.33 38.33 38 -0.33 -8.00 0.33 12.67 40.00 55 15.00 7.00 15.00 27.67 43.33 30 -13.33 -6.33 13.33 41.00 41.00 18 -23.00 -29.33 23.00 64.00 34.33 58 23.67 -5.67 23.67 87.67 35.33 47 11.67 6.00 11.67 99.33 41.00 37 -4.00 2.00 4.00 103.33 47.33 23 -24.33 -22.33 24.33 127.67 35.67 55 19.33 -3.00 19.33 147.00 38.33 40 1.67 -1.33 1.67 148.67 MAD, RSFE, TS 3 Weeks

Demand Forecast Actual Deviation RSFE Abs. Dev Sum of Abs. Dev

41.00 26.00 -15.00 -15.00 15.00 15.00 33.67 35.00 1.33 -13.67 1.33 16.33 32.00 41.00 9.00 -4.67 9.00 25.33 34.00 40.00 6.00 1.33 6.00 31.33 38.67 46.00 7.33 8.67 7.33 38.67 42.33 48.00 5.67 14.33 5.67 44.33 44.67 55.00 10.33 24.67 10.33 54.67 49.67 18.00 -31.67 -7.00 31.67 86.33 40.33 62.00 21.67 14.67 21.67 108.00 45.00 44.00 -1.00 13.67 1.00 109.00 41.33 30.00 -11.33 2.33 11.33 120.33 45.33 45.00 -0.33 2.00 0.33 120.67 39.67 50.00 10.33 12.33 10.33 131.00 MAD, RSFE, TS Chicago 3 weeks

(5)

54.67 44 -10.67 -10.67 10.67 10.67 45.33 34 -11.33 -22.00 11.33 22.00 42.00 22 -20.00 -42.00 20.00 42.00 33.33 55 21.67 -20.33 21.67 63.67 37.00 48 11.00 -9.33 11.00 74.67 41.67 72 30.33 21.00 30.33 105.00 58.33 62 3.67 24.67 3.67 108.67 60.67 28 -32.67 -8.00 32.67 141.33 54.00 27 -27.00 -35.00 27.00 168.33 39.00 95 56.00 21.00 56.00 224.33 50.00 35 -15.00 6.00 15.00 239.33 52.33 45 -7.33 -1.33 7.33 246.67 58.33 47 -11.33 -12.67 11.33 258.00 MAD, RSFE, TS Dallas 3 Weeks

Demand Forecast Actual Deviation RSFE Abs. Dev Sum of Abs. Dev

49.00 27 -22.00 -22.00 22.00 22.00 44.67 42 -2.67 -24.67 2.67 24.67 37.33 35 -2.33 -27.00 2.33 27.00 34.67 40 5.33 -21.67 5.33 32.33 39.00 51 12.00 -9.67 12.00 44.33 42.00 64 22.00 12.33 22.00 66.33 51.67 70 18.33 30.67 18.33 84.67 61.67 65 3.33 34.00 3.33 88.00 66.33 55 -11.33 22.67 11.33 99.33 63.33 43 -20.33 2.33 20.33 119.67 54.33 38 -16.33 -14.00 16.33 136.00 45.33 47 1.67 -12.33 1.67 137.67 42.67 42 -0.67 -13.00 0.67 138.33 MAD, RSFE, TS LA 3 weeks

Demand Forecast Actual Deviation RSFE Abs. Dev Sum of Abs. Dev

45.00 32 -13.00 -13.00 13.00 13.00

37.67 43 5.33 -7.67 5.33 18.33

(6)

43.00 40 -3.00 6.67 3.00 38.67 45.67 46 0.33 7.00 0.33 39.00 46.67 74 27.33 34.33 27.33 66.33 53.33 40 -13.33 21.00 13.33 79.67 53.33 35 -18.33 2.67 18.33 98.00 49.67 45 -4.67 -2.00 4.67 102.67 40.00 38 -2.00 -4.00 2.00 104.67 39.33 48 8.67 4.67 8.67 113.33 43.67 56 12.33 17.00 12.33 125.67 47.33 50 2.67 19.67 2.67 128.33

(7)

Atlanta 5 weeks

MAD TS MAPE FT Week Demand Forecast Actual

8.67 -1.00 0.26 41.00 1 41.6 33 5.50 -1.15 0.12 39.93 2 39.2 45 4.11 -1.86 0.11 43.13 3 40.6 37 3.17 -2.53 0.08 38.07 4 42 38 5.53 1.27 0.10 38.27 5 38 55 6.83 -0.93 0.23 43.00 6 41.6 30 9.14 -3.21 0.51 40.67 7 41 18 10.96 -0.52 0.19 36.40 8 35.6 58 11.04 0.54 0.23 39.07 9 39.8 47 10.33 0.19 0.28 37.67 10 41.6 37 11.61 -1.92 0.50 40.20 11 38 23 12.25 -0.24 0.22 42.47 12 36.6 55 11.44 -0.12 0.29 39.53 13 44 40 MAD, RSFE, TS Boston 5 Weeks

MAD TS MAPE Ft Week Demand Forecast Actual

15.00 -1.00 0.58 35.27 1.00 40.60 26.00 8.17 -1.67 0.23 38.00 2.00 33.40 35.00 8.44 -0.55 0.21 33.93 3.00 36.80 41.00 7.83 0.17 0.20 33.80 4.00 35.40 40.00 7.73 1.12 0.17 35.20 5.00 35.40 46.00 7.39 1.94 0.15 40.13 6.00 37.60 48.00 7.81 3.16 0.14 43.47 7.00 42.00 55.00 10.79 -0.65 0.60 46.73 8.00 46.00 18.00 12.00 1.22 0.19 43.33 9.00 41.40 62.00 10.90 1.25 0.25 44.67 10.00 45.80 44.00 10.94 0.21 0.36 44.80 11.00 45.40 30.00 10.06 0.20 0.22 39.07 12.00 41.80 45.00 10.08 1.22 0.20 45.27 13.00 39.80 50.00 Chicago 5 weeks

(8)

10.67 -1.00 0.24 46.40 1 49.6 44 11.00 -2.00 0.32 52.53 2 46 34 14.00 -3.00 0.64 43.07 3 48.4 22 15.92 -1.28 0.29 38.00 4 38.4 55 14.93 -0.63 0.31 37.67 5 40.6 48 17.50 1.20 0.24 39.20 6 40.6 72 15.52 1.59 0.25 47.73 7 46.2 62 17.67 -0.45 0.63 59.07 8 51.8 28 18.70 -1.87 0.69 54.13 9 53 27 22.43 0.94 0.24 48.60 10 47.4 95 21.76 0.28 0.62 50.20 11 56.8 35 20.56 -0.06 0.46 47.00 12 49.4 45 19.85 -0.64 0.42 50.87 13 46 47 MAD, RSFE, TS Dallas 5 Week

MAD TS MAPE Ft Week Demand Forecast Actual

22.00 -1.00 0.81 45.67 1 44.80 27.00 12.33 -2.00 0.29 44.60 2 41.80 42.00 9.00 -3.00 0.26 44.13 3 43.20 35.00 8.08 -2.68 0.20 36.87 4 42.20 40.00 8.87 -1.09 0.17 35.73 5 37.40 51.00 11.06 1.12 0.17 41.40 6 39.00 64.00 12.10 2.54 0.17 46.40 7 46.40 70.00 11.00 3.09 0.17 55.33 8 52.00 65.00 11.04 2.05 0.20 62.33 9 58.00 55.00 11.97 0.19 0.28 64.07 10 61.00 43.00 12.36 -1.13 0.33 59.27 11 59.40 38.00 11.47 -1.08 0.24 51.07 12 54.20 47.00 10.64 -1.22 0.25 45.67 13 49.60 42.00 LA 5 weeks

MAD TS MAPE FT Week Demand Forecast Actual

13.00 -1.00 0.41 44.33 1 43.6 32

9.17 -0.84 0.21 42.40 2 41.4 43

(9)

9.67 0.69 0.24 40.13 4 42 40 7.80 0.90 0.17 42.40 5 40.8 46 11.06 3.11 0.15 45.73 6 43 74 11.38 1.85 0.28 52.13 7 51.4 40 12.25 0.22 0.35 50.67 8 50.8 35 11.41 -0.18 0.25 49.67 9 47 45 10.47 -0.38 0.28 48.73 10 48 38 10.30 0.45 0.21 39.60 11 46.4 48 10.47 1.62 0.19 41.07 12 41.2 56 9.87 1.99 0.20 46.13 13 44.4 50

(10)

Deviation RSFE Abs. Dev Sum of Abs. Dev MAD TS MAPE -8.6 -8.6 8.6 8.6 8.60 -1.00 0.26 5.8 -2.8 5.8 14.4 7.20 -0.39 0.16 -3.6 -6.4 3.6 18 6.00 -1.07 0.16 -4 -10.4 4 22 5.50 -1.89 0.14 17 6.6 17 39 7.80 0.85 0.14 -11.6 -5 11.6 50.6 8.43 -0.59 0.28 -23 -28 23 73.6 10.51 -2.66 0.58 22.4 -5.6 22.4 96 12.00 -0.47 0.21 7.2 1.6 7.2 103.2 11.47 0.14 0.24 -4.6 -3 4.6 107.8 10.78 -0.28 0.29 -15 -18 15 122.8 11.16 -1.61 0.49 18.4 0.4 18.4 141.2 11.77 0.03 0.21 -4 -3.6 4 145.2 11.17 -0.32 0.28

Deviation RSFE Abs. Dev Sum of Abs. Dev MAD TS MAPE

-14.60 -14.60 14.60 14.60 14.60 -1.00 0.56 1.60 -13.00 1.60 16.20 8.10 -1.60 0.23 4.20 5.80 4.20 20.40 6.80 0.85 0.17 4.60 8.80 4.60 25.00 6.25 1.41 0.16 10.60 15.20 10.60 35.60 7.12 2.13 0.15 10.40 21.00 10.40 46.00 7.67 2.74 0.16 13.00 23.40 13.00 59.00 8.43 2.78 0.15 -28.00 -15.00 28.00 87.00 10.88 -1.38 0.60 20.60 -7.40 20.60 107.60 11.96 -0.62 0.19 -1.80 18.80 1.80 109.40 10.94 1.72 0.25 -15.40 -17.20 15.40 124.80 11.35 -1.52 0.38 3.20 -12.20 3.20 128.00 10.67 -1.14 0.24 10.20 13.40 10.20 138.20 10.63 1.26 0.21

(11)

-5.60 -5.60 5.60 5.60 5.60 -1.00 0.13 -12.00 -17.60 12.00 17.60 8.80 -2.00 0.26 -26.40 -44.00 26.40 44.00 14.67 -3.00 0.67 16.60 -27.40 16.60 60.60 15.15 -1.81 0.28 7.40 -20.00 7.40 68.00 13.60 -1.47 0.28 31.40 11.40 31.40 99.40 16.57 0.69 0.23 15.80 27.20 15.80 115.20 16.46 1.65 0.27 -23.80 3.40 23.80 139.00 17.38 0.20 0.62 -26.00 -22.60 26.00 165.00 18.33 -1.23 0.68 47.60 25.00 47.60 212.60 21.26 1.18 0.22 -21.80 3.20 21.80 234.40 21.31 0.15 0.61 -4.40 -1.20 4.40 238.80 19.90 -0.06 0.44 1.00 -0.20 1.00 239.80 18.45 -0.01 0.39

Deviation RSFE Abs. Dev Sum of Abs. Dev MAD TS MAPE

-17.80 -17.80 17.80 17.80 17.80 -1.00 0.66 0.20 -17.60 0.20 18.00 9.00 -1.96 0.21 -8.20 -25.80 8.20 26.20 8.73 -2.95 0.25 -2.20 -28.00 2.20 28.40 7.10 -3.94 0.18 13.60 -14.40 13.60 42.00 8.40 -1.71 0.16 25.00 10.60 25.00 67.00 11.17 0.95 0.17 23.60 34.20 23.60 90.60 12.94 2.64 0.18 13.00 47.20 13.00 103.60 12.95 3.64 0.20 -3.00 44.20 3.00 106.60 11.84 3.73 0.22 -18.00 26.20 18.00 124.60 12.46 2.10 0.29 -21.40 4.80 21.40 146.00 13.27 0.36 0.35 -7.20 -2.40 7.20 153.20 12.77 -0.19 0.27 -7.60 -10.00 7.60 160.80 12.37 -0.81 0.29

Deviation RSFE Abs. Dev Sum of Abs. Dev MAD TS MAPE

-11.6 -11.6 11.6 11.6 11.60 -1.00 0.36

1.6 -10 1.6 13.2 6.60 -1.52 0.15

(12)

-2 0 2 27.2 6.80 0.00 0.17 5.2 5.2 5.2 32.4 6.48 0.80 0.14 31 36.2 31 63.4 10.57 3.43 0.14 -11.4 24.8 11.4 74.8 10.69 2.32 0.27 -15.8 9 15.8 90.6 11.33 0.79 0.32 -2 7 2 92.6 10.29 0.68 0.23 -10 -3 10 102.6 10.26 -0.29 0.27 1.6 -1.4 1.6 104.2 9.47 -0.15 0.20 14.8 13.4 14.8 119 9.92 1.35 0.18 5.6 19 5.6 124.6 9.58 1.98 0.19

(13)

FT 14.8 38.16 41.52 39.16 40.4 44.8 36.96 31.8 44.56 42.68 39.76 32 43.96 Ft 14.00 34.76 34.04 38.48 37.24 39.64 41.76 47.20 34.80 49.64 45.08 39.24 43.08 FT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Exponential smoothing

Actual 3 weeks 5 weeks

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00

Exponential smoothing

Actual 3 weeks 5 weeks

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Exponential smoothing

(14)

19.2 47.36 41.2 37.84 45.04 43.56 53.16 52.52 42.28 42.6 66.44 48.08 47.64 Ft 17.20 37.68 41.88 39.92 41.32 42.84 49.00 55.84 57.20 56.80 53.80 50.84 51.32 FT 14.00 38.96 42.04 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Exponential smoothing

Actual 3 weeks 5 weeks

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Exponential smoothing

Actual 3 weeks 5 weeks

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Exponential smoothing

(15)

46.80 41.20 42.88 55.40 46.84 44.48 46.20 44.00 47.04 47.12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Exponential smoothing

(16)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00

Tracking signal

3 weeks 5 weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00

Tracking signal

3 weeks 5 weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00

Tracking signal

3 weeks 5 weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Exponential smoothing

Actual 3 weeks 5 weeks

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00

Exponential smoothing

Actual 3 weeks 5 weeks

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Exponential smoothing

(17)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00

Tracking signal

3 weeks 5 weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 -5.00 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00

Tracking signal

3 weeks 5 weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00

Tracking signal

3 weeks 5 weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Exponential smoothing

Actual 3 weeks 5 weeks

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Exponential smoothing

Actual 3 weeks 5 weeks

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Exponential smoothing

(18)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00

Tracking signal

3 weeks 5 weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Exponential smoothing

(19)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00

Tracking signal

3 weeks 5 weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00

Tracking signal

3 weeks 5 weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00

Tracking signal

3 weeks 5 weeks

(20)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00

Tracking signal

3 weeks 5 weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 -5.00 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00

Tracking signal

3 weeks 5 weeks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00

Tracking signal

3 weeks 5 weeks

(21)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00

Tracking signal

3 weeks 5 weeks

References

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