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11-10-2010, 09:08 PM

60minuteman

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Supply & Demand Trading Jou rnal

In an effort to improve my trading i have decided to start a journal of all my trades....

DISCLA IMER: THESE ARE NOT MY IDEAS, This is something i have learned and rings true to me, I can not guarante e it works, thats what we are he re for... to find out!

the system:

I am currently in demo with 3 systems, all 3 work on the basis of supply and demand, you can call it support and resistance if you like, theyre the same....

but, its no good just picking any old, s/d you need to strong ones! So how do we decipher s&d, and what makes it strong....?

well first it is important that you grasp this idea.... only 1 thing moves the market, not the news, not fibs, not indicators, not trend lines.... the only thing that will move price on your charts are orders to buy and orders to sell...(i dont want to discuss this, its true)..

Price on your charts is a visual of those orders, at this price there was 100 orders to buy, and 1 to sell.... which way is price going to go? up...of course!

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it reversed quickly and dropped strongly... why? because there was no more buy ers and lots of sellers.... who do we think was buying just before price peaked?... i bet it wasnt the banks! or institutions.... it was novice traders...

"the biggest mistake novice traders make is buying into a high and selling into a low" i was part of that group.... (These are the traders we want to take the money from....)

So we can say at area 2 there is a strong imbalance between supply and demand...

When price returned to that level at area 1, based on what we have just learnt, what can we assume will happen? ... exactly price will fall (not always, but you only need to be right at least 50% of the time to win with this system)

Ok well we can see if you had set your short the re, you woul d ha ve made a tidy profit!... now go check your own charts and see this playt out time and time again...

RULES:

These aren't really rules, but if finding the strong s&d areas is vital, we need some way of determining if it is strong or weak... Thankful ly that is easy too...

1. The areas ha ve to be : rally-base-drop or drop-base-rally

youre looking for places where price turned... its only minor s& d if price was moving up, went sideways, then continued up.... rall y-base-rally is no good!

By all means note these areas, but they re not what you are looking for... look at area 2 and 1 on the chart again.... rally-base-drop 2. how long did price stay at this area.... a short time is good! this shows there is a big imbalance between s&d

3. how did price leave this area... gap is excellent... but rare.. so we are looking for a strong move away.... area 1 and 2 on the chart again... 4. how far did it go.... this is your profitability

area 2 dropped about 350 pips... we look for at least 3/1 profit, so a sl at area 1 of 100 pips would of been ok...

5. you also want to have a decent amount of time between prices visit to an area, because obviously if price is constantly hanging around the area, then its not meeting rules 2, 3 and 4.

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#2

ENTRIES: for entries we need to draw in our s&d zones, the conventional teaching is to draw a single line, but thats just not realistic, price isnt going to turn right on the exact pip!

so we draw a zone... look at chart 2

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Last edited b y 60minutem an; 11-11-2010 at 01:35 PM.

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ok here i have drawn in the top and bottom lines of my supply zone.. you are just trying to capture the range of prices whe re price turned... its subjective, but practice.... i am

OK, SO WHEN DO WE PULL THE TRIGGER?

this is the bit im always trying to find on threads i read, so ive put it in big letters for you...

there are 2 approache s... conservative and gun ho! ... im a gun ho trader, unfortunately for me.... but its upto you!

conservative is to wait for price to come back to the area and show some signal that it has tur ned.... bollinger bands, fibs, wha tever you like, if it makes you feel better, do it..

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11-10-2010, 09:28 PM

60minuteman

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Join Date : N ov 2 010 Posts: 157

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#4

#5

for your sl you use the top line (or bottom when going long) of your s&d zone

TARGET

upto you, i tend to take profit as price moves towards minor s/r zones, but this area im experimenting with, and hopefully we can explore some ideas as this thread grows.... or dies...lol

11-10-2010, 09:32 PM

60minuteman

Se nior Memb er

ok, now youre saying... thats only 1 system... yes i know.... the others will come.... soon fir st lets see if we can make this a winning system....

I promise to post all my trades here that use this system, i will not cherry pick... i dont need anyone to think im a great trader, i need to be one....

any support is greatly appreciated...

11-10-2010, 09:53 PM

60minuteman

Se nior Memb er

ok just to get the ball rolling, he re is the first trade i ever took using this system.... and its a che rry (if i was going to pick 1lol) my sd zones were set on the daily (by the way this works on any tf)

i entered on the first touch of the s&d zone.... result +428

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11-10-2010, 10:02 PM

20pips

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Join Date: Oct 2010 Locat ion: España Posts: 5 7

Nice, I wondered what supply/demand zones were. I sometimes trade something similar but use a line, MA or PA bar, often missing the trade because it didn't quite reach the trigger point or look right, I quite like the zone idea.

Last edited b y 20pips; 11-10-2 010 at 10:04 PM.

11-10-2010, 10:08 PM

60minuteman

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60minuteman

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11-10-2010, 11:38 PM

60minuteman

Se nior Memb er

ok, important point here, that i never mentioned...

when you look back from price now, to find a relevent supply and demand zone, you never cut through candles.... never!... dont forget!

11-10-2010, 11:54 PM

franci s galvin

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best of luck with it subscribing

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11-11-2010, 09:49 AM

60minuteman

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ok heres my entry into gu short, ive marked my sd zones, see how i put my stop just above the outer zone... good job, came real close to sl... went to +40 and i have taken ha lf profit there...

see how it has paused he re.... well if you look left from price you can see a minor s/d zone (good place to set tp's) how do we know it is a minor sd zone...

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#15 Last edit ed b y 60m inute man; 11-1 1-2010 at 09:51 A M.

11-11-2010, 11:00 AM

bushpippen

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Good stuff 60mm,ill be following your journal and all the best to you,may you become a good trader in no time!!

11-11-2010, 11:53 AM

60minuteman

S enior Mem ber

thanks Bp... are you still steadily increasing your account? really enjoyed your thre ad when i was starting out

11-11-2010, 04:12 PM

RMSTrader

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Join Date: Oct 2010 Locat ion: A ustin, TX Posts: 47

Fantastic thread 60mm! Looking forward to following your progress.

I'm conservative. I look for CBL entries only, but your method will hopefully help me pinpoint those higher probability pairs to trade.

Thanks for sharing on this thread. It is a little tedious for me to follow stuff in the chat room....

11-12-2010, 09:12 AM

60minuteman

Join Date: N ov 2010

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ok Gu trade...

this is exactly what you need to look for if you want to trade this system, the entr y meets all the criteria, with bette r management i could of won more pips for sure, but im happy with 173.... how many of these do you need a week to win in forex?

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#17 11-12-2010, 11:09 AM

Rokas

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Join Date: Oct 2010 Locat ion: Lithuania Posts: 8

Se nd a message via Skyp e™ t o Rokas

Hi 60 very interesting thr ead. I never thought that you were that risky If you don’t mind I ha ve couple questions…

1. You wrote to never ever cut thr ough candles, but to place a zone you would ne ed to cut at least through wicks, so maybe no cutting of the the body? In your recent gu trade you cut both wick and body. And if its possible maybe you could write your reason for picking lower le vel of the zone.

2. What difference do you see with putting one big lot and putting 2 lots at different time? I always though of multi lots as a way of increasing BE levels and increasing R:R ratio by reducing risk. But you don’t reduce risk after a trade, you increase it a lot. And why second lot was twice as big as first one?

3. What do you think of not letting a winne r tur n into a big loser?

4. As you said before putting a single line and hope that price will turn at that point is just too optimistic so a zone is a superior thing to do, but isn’t it a same thing as putti ng a limit order at start of the zone?

5. Do you trade with a trend?

Well that’s more than couple que stions… I am really happy to see anothe r person writing a thread that is very similar to my yet to be written tr ading plan…

11-12-2010, 02:24 PM

60minuteman

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Join Dat e: No v 2010 Posts: 157

ha ve a look at this rokas...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rokas

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1. You wrote to never ever cut through candles, but to place a zone you would need to cut at least through wicks, so maybe no cutting of the the body? In your recent gu trade you cut both wick and body. And if its possible maybe you could write your reason for picking lower level of the zone .

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#18

2. What difference do you see with putting one big lot and putting 2 lots at different time? I always though of multi lots as a way of increasing BE levels and increasing R:R ratio by reducing risk. But you don’t reduce risk after a trade, you increase it a lot. And why second lot was twice as big as first one?

both lots were the same size, but i took half off the first lot whe n i was r/r 1/1..

i havent worked out the best way to manage these trades rokas, i need some help from someone like grav or ty men, but clearly if you get that bit right also these can be very big winner s

3. What do you think of not letting a winner tur n into a big loser?

obviously thats not good, but wha tever you do, you need to make sure that you give your trades a chance to go to their potential, because then you only need to be right 50% of the time.. again it is a trade management issue , im trying to learn!

4. As you said before putting a single line and hope that price will turn at that point is just too optimistic so a zone is a superior thing to do, but isn’t it a same thing as putting a limit order at start of the zone ?

sure and i do use limit orders at lines to enter in this system sometimes, the zone s just give you a visualization of the area where supply and demand were imbalanced before, therefore it is highly probable that the se conditions will be true ne xt time... cant guasrantee it, but if you were right 50% of the time you would make money

5. Do you tr ade with a trend?

i pay no interest in trend at all... he re's why... why do most novice trader s lose mone y in forex... because they buy after a sustaine d period of buying and they sell after a susta ined period of selling... for a trand to exist (according to the rules) you need 3 touches of that trend line... why do you want to get in now...? the basis of this system is that you are trading the way institutional and bank traders trade, taking the money from the novice trader..

have a look at the trades i have posted, see how price will often make a last surge up before turning down in our s/d zone.... who do you think is entering with the trend here?... yes , novice tr aders

Well that’s more tha n couple questions… I am really happy to see another person wr iting a thre ad that is very similar to my yet to be written trading plan…

11-12-2010, 03:33 PM

60minuteman

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#19 #20 eu long -40 eu long +118 gu long +102 eu long -70 gu short +132 gj short +112

gj short again... still open Total so far = +354

ok, last trade for gj stopped out -35 total = +319

Last edit ed b y 60m inute man; 11-1 2-2010 at 03:49 PM.

11-12-2010, 06:21 PM

Rokas

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Join Date: Oct 2010 Locat ion: Lithuania Posts: 8

Se nd a message via Skyp e™ t o Rokas

Great weekly results CONGRATS Little more niewbie ideas…

If you look at 1 s/d zone in 1h tf it looks good and tradable but if you take a look at 4h its just a drop base drop and the second zone is rally base drop a very good zone visua lly the only problem from taking short from 4h woul d be the point that PA hasn’t moved a lot from tha t point in time. The TP points are roughly the same from 1h and 4h so the time trade reache s its goal is the same. If you look at daily both (1,2) s/d zones has little/no value, on the other hand 1,6300 looks as superb s/d zone on most lower TF. So wouldn’t it be a confluence of timeframes? (How stupid does it sound). Any way my point is shouldn’t strength of s/d zone (s/r line) depend on the TF it wa s drawn?

For the tr end part I was referring to higher TF tr end, like the 4h trend for 1h or daily trend for 4h. Graviton wrote A LOT about that subject.

11-12-2010, 10:18 PM

60minuteman

Join Date: N ov 2 010

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S enior Mem ber

Quote:

Great weekly results CONGRATS Little more niewbie ideas…

If you look at 1 s/d zone in 1h tf it looks good and tradable but if you take a look at 4h its just a drop base drop and the second zone is rally base drop a very good zone visually the only problem from taking short from 4h would be the point that PA hasn’t moved a lot from that point in time. The TP points are roughly the same from 1h and 4h so the time trade reaches its goal is the same. If you look at daily both (1,2) s/d zones has little/no value , on the other hand 1,6300 looks as superb s/d zone on most lower TF. So wouldn’t it be a confluence of timeframes? (How stupid does it sound). Any way my point is shouldn’t strength of s/d zone (s/r line) depend on the TF it was drawn?

For the trend part I was referring to higher TF trend, like the 4h trend for 1h or daily trend for 4h. Graviton wrote A LOT about that subject.

ok, i will answer you with wha t i know Rokas, wether I am right or not I dont know...

you could have the sweetest looking entr y on 1hr that fits all the rules, but on the daily it could be just the retrace of 1 candle.... does that mean you cant trade it? no.... you can trade it... supply and demand is taking place on all tf's...

if you find a good s/d zone on the daily, im sure within that trade you could find 2 or 3 on the 4hr... my e/chf short went 450 pips on 1hr tf, but there was a 90 pip retrace during that, and i bet if i had looked at the 15m tf there were trades long.... i always draw my zones on the same tf i take the trade on... i havent thought of say drawing the m on 4hr and entering on the 1hr.... im not sur e how that would work?...

With regards finding a higher tf trend and say in a daily down trend only looking for shorts on the 4hr and 1hr ... we would be missing the point!...

This system is built from the knowledge of how the big institutional traders trade...

if they know there is strong demand at 1.600 and it has been in a downtrend for a week... what are they going to do....?

well they know that all the big guns have already made the ir shorts, and they also know that novice traders usually enter after a long period of selling or buy ing... so they will enter long anyway.... they make their money by transfering the funds from the novice traders into their pockets...

Im probably not qualified to cover this really, but by sticking to the rules as i was told i am getting good results.... and sam was very clear...

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the key to wining with this strat is to find strong s/d,

I can tell this has caught your imaginati on rokas, like it did me when i first encountered this way of trading.... i suggest you find the key points on your charts over the weekend, make some notes, or set some alerts, and try taking some on demo ne xt week... just remember dont go chasing your sl up behind price... it wont work... set your targets and if you make it, take profit, or just close the trade.... tight stops does not work

Last edit ed b y 60m inute man; 11-1 2-2010 at 10:24 PM.

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11-13-2010, 03:19 AM

Needy

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Join Dat e: Oct 2010 Location: USA Mic higan Posts: 38

I too will be watching and testing, You've been doing well from we see here and on chat.

11-13-2010, 09:32 AM

60minuteman

Se nior Memb er

thanks needy, from this week i will start posting my demo account balance too, so we can see if we can grow an account us ing this system, and work out an optimum system for profit!

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quite a few people asking me about higher tf trends, well its not something that is done by sam seiden,(edit i made a mistake with this, sam does use the higher tfs, but not in ter ms of trend, only in terms of supply and demand) but something he does utilise is the us dollar index...

here is the daily chart and we can see that it is in a downtrend and moving into an area of supply, so we could say that looking for longs in the dollar pairs may well pay off... if it was also in oversold, we could add more weight to this think ing... lets see what happens monday!

i havent really tested this, but sam hasnt put me wrong yet!

by the way if you would like to see some webinars on supply and demand trading, they can be found at fxstreet website,

I also need to point out, this is all my interpretation of what i have been taught, i may well be wrong, I am no expert and you really should go and look at the lessons for your self

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#25 11-13-2010, 01:12 PM

Rokas

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Yea I am well in the imaginationland of forex trading… Our opinions are very similar just some concepts are way off One of them is questioned letting a winner turn into loser. I consider this one of the key points of solid trade management. Any way subject of s/d (s/r) is very wide and there is a lot of good literatur e (free) for example Tymens omnibus p4-18 also

http://www.forex4noobs.com/forex-pulse/forex-ebooks.php is a good read.

What do you think of posting your charts with trade plan for next week for comparison reasons? Ps this video was a bit turnoff for Sam… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glUE2B_-7rs

11-13-2010, 02:25 PM

60minuteman

Se nior Memb er Join Date : N ov 2 010 Posts: 157 Quot e:

Yea I am well in the imaginationland of forex trading… Our opinions are very similar just some concepts are way off One of them is questioned letting a winner tur n into loser. I consider this one of the key points of solid trade management. Any way subject of s/d (s/r) is very wide and there is a lot of good literature (free) for example Tymens omnibus p4-18 also http://www.forex4noobs.com/forex-pulse/forex-ebooks.php is a good read.

What do you think of posting your charts with tr ade plan for next week for comparison reasons? Ps this video was a bit turnoff for Sam… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glUE2B_-7rs

on the letting a winner become a loser, if you think about it clearly the important thing is to get the correct r/r.... if you close all your winners at 1/1 then you need to win more than 50% to gain in your account... the interesting thin is how many of my

winners have been losers, that became big winners achieving the desired 1/3 r/r... as with anything i like to stick to all the rules in demo and record the results, even if they dont quite make sense to me... always keeping in the front of my mind that i am a beginner and know nothing!

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#26

havent read that ebook, will do this weekend, thanks!

great idea and something i planne d to do, i will be posting all my best set ups i will be watching next week over the weekend... as for forex on the internet, i am sceptical about it all, but thats the beauty of demo accounts.... test and record!

I still think wha tever way you trade the most important thing is risk / reward... lets be more methodical with the figures over this month and see ...

good luck rokas and do let me know if you take any trades using s/d or evenpost them on here....

update: after doing a bit more study it appears sam does use higher tf's but only in respect to supply and demand, not with regards trend....

11-13-2010, 07:28 PM

60minuteman

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#27 11-13-2010, 07:28 PM

60minuteman

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#29 11-15-2010, 05:49 PM

jdash

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Subscribing!

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60minuteman

Se nior Memb er

ok firstly, sorr y for no action on the thread, but i have been trading!

I know I promised to post lots of details and all trades on here, and i will try, but i also have a restaurant to run 6 days a week... i will do my best! DONT TRADE THE NEWS.... though i would add that, because it got me bad this week.... thank god for demo... i am still learning!!!

ok, onto some trades...

1. this is GA sunday night opening, straight into an excellent set up, these entries stick out like sore thumbs, so if you are unsure, just move on, there are loads of entries all the time on all ti me frames

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#30 11-18-2010, 08:46 PM

60minuteman

Se nior Memb er Join Date: N ov 2010 Posts: 157 2. NU 30m tf short +80 pips

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just want to go over the rules again.... to find your S/D zone....

1.rall y - base - drop or drop - base - rally ... so on your charts that looks like a v shape or upside down v

2. price should not stay at the top for long, a few candles is best... remember if there are lots more sellers than buyers price will not hang around.... this is what we mean by a strong IMBALANCE in supply and demand

3. price should of dropped quickly away from thi s zone... 4. price should of dropped a long way.

5. on the FIRST return to this level you look to enter

n.b i will scan the other tf's to be sure im not selling into some strong demand on a highe r tf.... mark them out on your charts, its as easy as drawing 2 horizontal lines

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11-19-2010, 12:52 AM

ardy

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Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 11

Inspiring

60mm, this is very inspiring. At this stage of my trading, with the frequent setbacks, I need to see someone succeeding at this. Gives us all hope. Ev en though I don't trade this system myself, I see many things I can take away that will be applicable to my system. And if you continue with these kind of results, I might ha ve to try this on my own... Keep it up.

11-19-2010, 12:54 AM

ardy

Ju nior Mem ber

Failed trades

Oh, and post some failed trades as well .... I think we learn as much, if not more, from the ones that got away.... That is if you have any :-)

11-19-2010, 01:27 AM

60minuteman

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ok ardy i will post a fail now..

11-19-2010, 01:37 AM

60minuteman

Se nior Memb er

ok here is an eu trade that didnt win... but still, look at the loss... some people think you have to risk alot to trade this system, but compared to the size of the wins.... its a good r/r

so why did price not turn here? well demand had left from this price.... it happens... stick to the rules and you will make pips with this system...

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#36 11-19-2010, 01:44 AM

60minuteman

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thought i would post this.... im a lousy teache r, but this explains the rules very clearly

AN IMPORTANT RULE TO CONSIDER WHEN SCANNING FOR TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN FOREX Type: Webinar

Expert: Sam Seiden, Stocks, Futures, Forex and Options Trader at Online Trading Academy Moderator: Maud Gilson

Start: Wed, Jan 6 2010, 12:00 GMT End: Wed, Jan 6 2010, 12:45 GMT

Participants: 75 pre-registered participants Summary:

During this session, we will go over one of the most important rules when searching for low risk and high reward trading opportunities in F orex. It is a rule often overlooked yet it is a crucial piece of the puzzle for successful Forex traders.

http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/ses...b-d2c7be57b01d

11-19-2010, 07:29 PM

60minuteman

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ok, i promised to start posting my account so we can see it grow... or shrink!!!!

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#37 11-22-2010, 12:17 PM

60minuteman

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Joi n Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 157

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#38 11-22-2010, 12:34 PM

60minuteman

Se nior Memb er Join Date: N ov 2010 Posts: 157 GU trade monday

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#39 11-22-2010, 12:35 PM

60minuteman

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#40 11-22-2010, 03:42 PM

RMSTrader

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11-22-2010, 04:32 PM

60minuteman

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60minuteman

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EU trade... before this win i entered at the supply zone just below, again my most common mistake... entering too soon, i lost on the first trade but re-entered when i woke in the morning...

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fartist

Memb er Posts: 49

Hey 60mm, nice trades going on!

Could you post more of sam's videos which you personally think are critical to learning his method? I've seen the one you posted and it helped heaps! But are ther e more? heh

11-23-2010, 01:02 PM

60minuteman

Se nior Memb er

Heres 21 more sam seiden webinars...

http://www.consult-llewellyn.com/fx/?p=184

11-23-2010, 01:02 PM

fartist

Memb er

thanks 60mm, anyone in order that i should start watching first?

11-23-2010, 01:28 PM

60minuteman

Se nior Memb er

Quote :

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#47

#48 tha nks 60mm, anyone in order that i should start watching first?

watch them all fartist, its a simple idea but is fundamental to trading in any market... good luck, and post some wins/losses on here

11-23-2010, 01:52 PM

fartist

Memb er

Ok no problem! Thanks for sharing, will post some the tr ades for sure

11-24-2010, 11:36 AM

60minuteman

Se nior Memb er

2 more trades from Tue sday night,

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#50

fartist

Memb er Posts: 49

Hi 60mm, so for your trades when do you set to BE?

Or do you just set a TP and wait for PA to either hit your SL or TP. thanks!

11-25-2010, 10:02 AM

60minuteman

Se nior Memb er

Quote :

Originally Posted by fartist

Hi 60mm, so for your trades when do you set to BE?

Or do you just set a TP and wait for PA to either hit your SL or TP. tha nks!

Often the se trades go your way straight away so I dont move my stop loss, Sam seidens rule is Take Profit or Stop Loss...

Sometimes of cour se they may go 20 and stall, and if i have to go away from the screen I will tighten my stop, or perhaps if there is red flag news out...

The important thing to remember is , and this has been extensively tested, it is the R/R of this system that ensures you make profit in the good times, and in the bad times, so dont try and go with too tight a SL, set your SL as per the rules and if youre in, youre in!!!

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#52 Tymen's Board> Supply and Demand Trading

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11-25-2010, 12:06 PM

fartist

Member

Ahh okay! I'll take note of that

11-26-2010, 11:57 PM

60minuteman

Senior Member

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 157

Last trades of the week for me, wasnt going to trade today but woke up to see 2 perfect set ups and bagged myself another 200 odd pips... I had to go out and leave these trades, was going to close them but opted instead for a tight sl, both stopped out but for good profits happy days!!!

so i think it is fair to say, im either the luckiest git alive or picking strong supply and demand is an excellent way of finding low risk, high probability trades... you decide

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#53

if anyone else is trying this, post some charts and we can all learn from each other

Last edited by 60minut eman; 11-27-2010 at 12:04 AM.

11-27-2010, 05:26 AM

Tyler Vegas

Junior Member

looking fantastic 60. what is your win ratio like? and how do you improve it? what rules do you consider most important to taking one of these trades?

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#54 11-27-2010, 10:23 AM

60minuteman

Senior Member

Quot e:

Originally Posted by Tyler Vegas

looking fantastic 60. what is your win ratio like? and how do you improve it? what rules do you consider most important to taking one of these trades? again, well done

Thamks Tyler.... Win Rate is 70%...

The most important rules and the way to insure a high win rate is the enhancers: Trade enhancers:

Selecting supply and demand zones:

1.Pick rally, base, drop or drop, base, rally - this looks like a sharp peak on your charts, or a deep sharp V-shape 2. price dropped fast from the peak.

3. price dropped a long way.

4. price was at the peak for a short time only. Entries:

1. this is the first return to the supply or demand zone.

2. price rallied strongly into the supply zone, or even better, gapped into the supply zone 3. price has been away from the supply zone for a long time

Other things to look for:

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#55

#56

that by your stop loss, if the result is above 3 this is a good trade.

2. if entering from supply on the 1hr, check that the 4hr and daily are not in demand....

The hardest thing is entering long when you see price plummeting strongly short... it feels wrong at first, but you need to remember this, The forex market is just a transfer of funds from 1 set of traders to another, this is how oney is made in forex, so we are looking to take the money from the novice trader... we can find these traders easily on our charts. Novice traders make 2 mistakes over and over again.... "they buy after a sustained period of buying and into areas of supply..." and vice versa... so when you see those strong rallies or drops into our areas of supply and demand, we know it will be easy to take this money.... institutional traders know this and trade this way too...

11-27-2010, 10:50 AM

Tyler Vegas

Junior Member

that post pretty much wraps it up nice and simple. thanks!

11-27-2010, 04:18 PM

60minuteman

Senior Member

Upcoming webinar

SUPPLY AND DEMAND STRATEGY APPLICATION Type: Webinar

Register for this Session

Expert: Sam Seiden, Stocks, Futures, Forex and Options Trader at Online Trading Academy Moderator: Vicky Ferrer

Start: Tue, Nov 30 2010, 16:00 GMT End: Tue, Nov 30 2010, 16:45 GMT Participants: 76 pre-registered participants Summary:

During this session, we will apply the supply / demand strategy information that we learned during our last session.

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#57 11-28-2010, 01:04 AM

fartist

Member

Quot e:

Originally Posted by 60minuteman

Thamks Tyler.... Win Rate is 70%...

The most important rules and the way to insure a high win rate is the enhancers: Trade enhancers:

Selecting supply and demand zones:

1.Pick rally, base, drop or drop, base, rally - this looks like a sharp peak on your charts, or a deep sharp V-shape 2. price dropped fast from the peak.

3. price dropped a long way.

4. price was at the peak for a short time only. Entries:

1. this is the first return to the supply or demand zone.

2. price rallied strongly into the supply zone, or even better, gapped into the supply zone 3. price has been away from the supply zone for a long time

Other things to look for:

1. make sure that you have at least 1/3 risk/reward, ideally 1/4... count the pips of the drop from the supply zone last time and divide that by your stop loss, if the result is above 3 this is a good trade.

2. if entering from supply on the 1hr, check that the 4hr and daily are not in demand....

The hardest thing is entering long when you see price plummeting strongly short... it feels wrong at first, but you need to remember this,

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#58 The forex market is just a transfer of funds from 1 set of traders to another, this is how oney is made in forex, so we are looking

to take the money from the novice trader... we can find these traders easily on our charts. Novice traders make 2 mistakes over and over again.... "they buy after a sustained period of buying and into areas of supply..." and vice versa... so when you see those strong rallies or drops into our areas of supply and demand, we know it will be easy to take this money.... institutional traders know this and trade this way too...

Thanks for the guidelines 60mm, indeed very useful. I'll post a chart of eur chf i took earlier this week, which resulted in BE. Good trading mate!

11-28-2010, 04:12 AM

fartist

Member

(66)

#59

Exited at BE.

Prior to that i had r:r of 1:1 and thus set it to BE and decided to let it run. BE got hit later on.

Not sure if its a good SD zone as price appears to be consolidating on the 3rd circle area.

Last edited by fartist; 11-28-2010 at 04:1 4 AM.

11-28-2010, 07:27 AM

60minuteman

Senior Member

(67)

Quot e:

Originally Posted by fartist

Exited at BE.

Prior to that i had r:r of 1:1 and thus set it to BE and decided to let it run. BE got hit later on.

Not sure if its a good SD zone as price appears to be consolidating on the 3rd circle area.

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#60

also, the third circle was the best entry, because at this point price had been away from the zone the longest time

The entry fitted with all our enhancers and there was a strong kick out of the zone last time, sure it had been back here a few times but there was a long time since its last visit to the price.... not sure if i will trade the euro next week, the only one i have seen is a possible short on ea.. maybe the thing to do with the euro for now...i will probably try to avoid the euro this week..

Last edited by 60minut eman; 11-28-2010 at 07:56 AM.

11-28-2010, 09:24 AM

Rokas

Ju nior Memb er

Join Dat e: Oct 2010 Location: Lithuania Posts: 8

Send a message via Skype™ to Rokas

Hi 60 thx for webinar, registered

Was wondering do you record mae or mfe and other stuff like profit efficiency, if so what are you averages?

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11-28-2010, 09:52 AM

60minuteman

Se nior Memb er

honestly Rokas, i dont even know what they are...lol

Really need to do some work on money management, but it is an area that is hard to find good information on, if you have any tips I would appreciate your input!

profit wise im close to 25% up for 3 weeks trading, wether thats good or bad, i dont know? F or me its certailny good enough! Short term I will focus on cutting out big losses, ive had a few multilot trades hit sl where i was just being lazy and not thinking things through... the re is definitely scope to improve on this...

also i haven't really taken any 4hr entries yet, i have been taking big pips off the 1hr and in theory the wins and r/r could be even greater on the long tf's.

see you in the webinar!

11-28-2010, 11:51 AM

fartist

Memb er

(70)

#63

#64

Good to hear you have found some sucess with this method 60mm!

I will continue forward testing this method and post up charts to rev iew together.

11-28-2010, 03:35 PM

Rokas

Ju nior Mem ber

Join Date : Oct 2010 Location: Lit huan ia Posts: 8

Send a me ssage via Sk ype™ to Rokas

Read up Gravitons pdf he wrote A LOT about multi lots, optimization, money management, overtrading and so on really I cant imagine that any 1 who read that pdf was disappointed or though that time was wasted. Heres link http://www.4shared.com /document/kc-EpXqo/MTTFTv1.html

11-28-2010, 05:38 PM

Graviton

Senior Memb er

Join Date: Oct 2010 Locat ion: Houston, Texas Posts: 169

60MM, I took 7 of these trades over the last 10 days of trading. 5 of those trades were a combinati on of s/d trades taken whe n a CBL formed. All 7 trades were winners. Using the CBL allowed me to enter the trades at a good time and not jump in too early while the price still had some move to make against me within or near the identified zone. This is a small sample, and I'd usually want to see about 20 winning trades before judging a system, but it looks very promising. I particularly like combining the s/d with the CBL as it he lps time the entry.

One thing I'd offer caution about is being hardheaded about any system. Most systems work well in some situati ons and not in othe rs. It's important to understand when your particular system works and whe n it doesn't. This system works well when there is no earth shattering fundamental news driving the market in only one direction. You don't need to monitor news wires for that sort of information since it will be the lead story on any news broadcast, like CNN. The N. Korean shelling of S. Korean ter ritory last week was some such earth shattering fundamental news that drove investors into the U SD and ment tha t price would not return to supply zones as usual, but rathe r fall, and then fall even more. So in conclusion, this system works well m,ost of the time when news is minor and price just swings from supply zones to demand zones and back again over and over. This system does not work well when major fundamental ne ws drives price in only one dirrectio n or anothe r. That is a different setup that should be

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#65

#66

#67

accounted for. It's a rare thing, happening only once a month or so, but it can be very profitable if it's recognized, and very costly if not. 11-28-2010, 06:15 PM

60minuteman

Se nior Memb er Join Date : N ov 2 010 Posts: 157

Grav thats great news, Im glad to have you on board and I value your opinion with regards anything trading wise...

The fundamental issue you have pointed out is true, i discovered by losing lots of pips.... but good to know for the future, I avoided this by switching to my exotic pairs and had good success ther e... so barring global warfare there will always be pairs to trade using this system.

and wow... thats a cracking win rate!

the cbl combined is excellent for timing entries, and correct me if im wrong, is this the missing piece of the puzzle in bb dna, is this the key to the no trade zones?????

11-28-2010, 06:19 PM

60minuteman

Se nior Memb er

heres a few numbers and pairs, not saying trade these numbers, but just areas to watch au 0.9575 ea 1.3840 ej 107.50 gu 1.5500 nu 0.7440 uchf 1.0175 uj 86????? cj 81.40 83.00 11-28-2010, 06:51 PM

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#68

Graviton

Senior Memb er

Quot e:

Originally Posted by 60minuteman

Grav thats great news, Im glad to have you on board and I value your opinion with regards anything trading wise... The fundamental issue you have pointed out is true, i discovered by losing lots of pips.... but good to know for the future, I avoided this by switching to my exotic pairs and ha d good success ther e... so barring global warfare there will always be pairs to trade using this system.

and wow... tha ts a cracking win rate!

the cbl combined is excellent for timing entr ies, and correct me if im wrong, is this the missing piece of the puzzle in bb dna, is this the key to the no trade zones?????

60MM, 4 of the 7 trades I took were in no trade zones and all won. I'm still in the earliest phase of testing, but my nornal win rate on trades taken in no trade zones is much less, like around 50% . I will say I am being very careful on not tr ading long into a higher time frame supply zone, or short into a hi gher time frame demand zone. For the most part though, these were trades I would ha ve wanted to take anyway because of other reasons and the s/d picture just gave me additional confidence to take the trade and stay with them through the small retracements.

Your statement that this can work except with breakout of global warfare is right on point. I'm not talking about not taking s/d trades because of red flag news. That news is the fuel to move price from supply to demand zones over and over and we depend on it to make our price targets. Specifically, I'm saying that very significant suprise news, like N. Korea shelling S. Korea will cause the system to break down, since price onl y moves in one direction then. Of course, that is the only sort of news I usually trade, and it can be very profitable by multi-lot trend trading in only that one dirrection. Like I said, that only usually happens once every month or two.

So, In my own humble opinion, a complete system is two parts. One which uses s/d most of the time when N. Korea isn't shelling S. Korea, or something like that, and simply trend trading with multi-lots in the rare occasion when something like that is making headline s on every news broadcast in the world.

Last edited b y Graviton ; 11-28-2010 at 07:12 PM.

11-29-2010, 09:12 PM

60minuteman

Se nior Memb er

(73)

ok, another week begins...

+143 for the day, sounds good right? well how about 223?

well thats what i would of had if i wasnt an idiot, i set a rule to not trade the euro and then complete ly ignored it.... so first lesson, dont break your rules!

hahha ... but seriously im beginning to realise that you can easily win 100 pips a day consistently if you just pick strong supply and strong demand....

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#69

#70 12-01-2010, 08:29 AM

franci s galvin

Memb er

looking good 60

12-05-2010, 12:09 AM

fartist

Memb er

Join Dat e: Oct 2010 Posts: 49

took 3 trades this week, 1 win 2 losses First up AJ 1 HR TF

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2nd is CJ 1HR TF

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And lastly was the same CJ trade i took earlier but a short down. However i was stopped out on this one. Over pips gained for the week is 85.

Last edited b y fartist ; 1 2-05-2 010 a t 07:2 4 AM.

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12-06-2010, 07:43 PM

60minuteman

Se nior Memb er

nice fartist, you can see on your first chart that the first retur n that just clipped the area was the one to take... here is my AU entr y from today

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#72 12-07-2010, 10:32 PM

60minuteman

Se nior Memb er Join Date: N ov 2010 Posts: 157 GA trade today,

I could see a great set up on the daily, and 3hr tf, great potential, good drop base rall y, short time at the level etc etc all the enhancers (if you don't know them, you need to go watch the videos...slackers!)

but anyway you can see just by looking at it, this is as good as set ups go.. took 400 pips with 4 lots... easy low risk mone y....

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#73 12-14-2010, 05:20 PM

jdash

Ju nior Mem ber

Join Date: Oct 2010 Loc ation: philip pi nes Posts: 6

Great thread 60mm thanks for sha ring with us.

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#75

pauleamonn

Junior Memb er

Loc ation: Mid lands UK. Posts: 22

Hi All

I'm new to this thread but not ne w to Supply & Demand trading as taught by Sam Seiden. Having said that, I'm only just getting my psychology around this stuff and so, while I may be quite knowledgeable on Sam's teachings, I haven't yet made my fortune using it - but I'm getting ther e.

I passed this link to a couple of attendees to the Seiden webinar yesterday and they said that they would look in. Well, make yourselves know guys and let's see if we can make this a good thre ad whe re we can all learn and prosper from trading Supply & Demand.

Just to throw a few pennies into the hat to start the ball rolling, I will give you an outline of my experience thus far and where I’m at in my journey.

Over the year or so that I’ve been looking at S&D I’ve tried all sorts of ways to make it work for me but to no avail – until recently when I watched one of Sam’s old webinars where he discussed including CCI in the equation.

However, just adding the CCI didn’t do it for me as I seemed to get whipped a lot. So I added in a higher time frame moving average and committed to only trading long when the 30 minute bar had closed above the ma and short when it closed below. This yielded some decent results but, at the same time, gave me some losses after price had turned at large supply or demand but the rules still required me to take the trade.

Consequently I’ve been experimenting with the MACD as the gross trend indicator instead of the MA and, while at the tur ning points it is less clear than the MA, the preliminary results are looking good. Maybe I’ll end up using a hybrid of both; who knows at the moment.

So that’s me - I’m getting the re bit by bit.

60 minute man, I look forward to your next post and also comments from anyone else looking in too. __________________ Regards Paul Eamonn 12-19-2010, 03:04 AM

fartist

Memb er

Join Dat e: Oct 2010 Posts: 49

(87)

Couple of SD trades i took over this week. Sorry if you guys couldn't see the tp levels as i print screen whe n i took the tr ade and did not printscreen the end result.

Anyway couple things that he lps me greatly increase my probability of trade is that i trade only in the direction of the trend, if there is one. Example would be the audcad, its in a nice uptrend, thus i will never go shorting on it.

Second, i look at price patterns, perharps my favourite would be the pinbars. Consolidation may not be a bad thing too.

lastly, like what sam and 60mm has said, whe n price is rushing or barging into the SD area, its a good sign! I like that, however i will not enter till i get some clue s that price has somewhat stalled and might turn around. Because ther e are times it will just barge through and blast through the SD areas, so i generally am more conservative and wait for some confirmation first. Candlesticks would help you on that.

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#76 Last edited b y fartist ; 1 2-19-2 010 a t 03:0 8 AM.

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#77

#78

Needy

Adminis trator

Welcome aboard pauleamonn and thank you for helping to spread the word. I too am on the upside of learning S/D. 60mm and othe rs here have put it to good use. Join us in our Skype Live Trading Room. Go to http://66.55.139.141/bbdna and you MAY get in, otherwise post your Skype Name here and someone will invite you. It's supposed to be automatic but does not work right all the time: I hope we can fix this! It would be nice to see you enha nce the SD system using those indicators, not much sentiment around here for those. But like I said, I'm on the upside. You may find http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=255586

helpful, lots of SD there.

12-19-2010, 05:15 PM

pauleamonn

Junior Memb er

Join Date: Dec 2010 Loc ation: Mid lands UK. Posts: 22

Hi Needy

Many thanks for the welcome and the link to the FF thre ad. I sat and read through it today and you are correct in that it does have some very interesting comments and resources - not all totally correct on my understanding of S&D as taught by Seiden (no, I'm not a OTA student, just an avid watche r of his webinars) but much of it helpful nevertheless.

Thanks also for the invite to join the Skype group. I will tr y to link up tomorrow and enlighten you all as to why I adulterate the sanctity of supply and demand with indicators

__________________ Regards Paul Eamonn 12-19-2010, 08:05 PM

60minuteman

Se nior Memb er Join Date : N ov 2 010 Posts: 157

(91)

#79

#80

sorr y for the lack of action here, christmas is a busy time in my restaurant, but i will update this week as i have some new ideas on how we can improve our s/d trades....

12-20-2010, 11:56 AM

pauleamonn

Junior Memb er

Hi Needy

I clicked on the link to the Skype live Trading Room but I'm not sur e if it's working Ok or not. It opened up a Skype page with a couple of names at the top but ther e isn't any chatting going on. Or maybe it's the case that ther e isn't anyone on at the moment? At the moment all it's saying in the box where you type your message is

-'The host of this conversation is currently off line.

You can cl ose this window and when the host is next online you will be added to the IM.'

Anyway, rather than post up my Skype name (so every twatinahat can get it - except, of course, those lovely young east Eur opean ladies who all want to be my friend ) can I Pm it to you or someone else? That way, as you suggested, I can be inv ited in and so get over the problem.

__________________ Regards

Paul Eamonn

Last edited b y pau leam onn; 12-2 0-2010 at 01:39 PM.

12-20-2010, 01:39 PM

pauleamonn

Junior Memb er

Hi Needy

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So anyway, all is good at the moment. __________________

Regards Paul Eamonn

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#81

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12-20-2010, 04:23 PM

tymen1

Chief Admin istrator

Join Date: Oct 201 0 Posts: 45

In looking at this supply/demand trading I notice that something is glaringly absent...

What are the rules for determining the lines that set the width of the supply/demand bands?

Could someone please post them.

At this point is just looks as if they are drawn by magic and no particular rules are being used.

This is obviously not good enough - there must be clear rules.

I do find Sam Seidens material to be good and simple but unfortunately, he does not have the teaching gift that I have

and the quality of his presentation is well below standard.

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#83

Mem ber

Quote:

Originally Posted by tymen1

In looking at this supply/demand trading I notice that something is glaringly absent...

What are the rules for determining the lines that set the width of the supply/demand bands?

Could someone please post them.

At this point is just looks as if they are drawn by magic and no particular rules are being used.

This is obviously not good enough - there must be clear rules.

I do find Sam Seidens material to be good and simple but unfortunately, he does not have the teaching gift that

I have and the quality of his presentation is well below standard.

i think this is where u could work ur magic tymen, simplifying and making clear rules as it's so close to ur own methods

already. u could present this in a crystal clear manner to everyones benefit.

12-20-2010, 05:00 PM

pauleamonn

Junior Member

Join Date: Dec 20 10 Location: Midlands UK. Posts: 22

Quote:

Originally Posted by tymen1

In looking at this supply/demand trading I notice that something is glaringly absent...

What are the rules for determining the lines that set the width of the supply/demand bands?

Could someone please post them.

At this point is just looks as if they are drawn by magic and no particular rules are being used.

This is obviously not good enough - there must be clear rules.

(95)

#84

I do find Sam Seidens material to be good and simple but unfortunately, he does not have the teaching gift that

I have and the quality of his presentation is well below standard.

Tymen – Sam’s basic ‘rules’ are to eyeball the area of supply or demand and make sure that the lines enclose the area

in which most of the trading was done (give or take a bit , his words, not mine).

But having seen most of his webinars I have noticed that, at a supply level, he always looks to put the lower (entry)

line approximately across the bottom of the bodies of the candles that form the base of his zone – i.e. those that make

up the 'base' part of the rally/base/drop. As for the upper line, that seems to be set at the top of the wicks formed when

price rallies just prior to the start of the base.

In the case of a demand level the opposit e it true as you can see from the attached chart.

However, I must just say that, while this chart is Ok for demonstrating the mechanics of a demand level, I don't think it

would have actually been a qualifying level according to Sam’s rules – AFAIK.

Hope this helps.

Attached Images

drop b ase rally.jp g (19 .9 KB, 36 views)

__________________

Regards

Paul Eamonn

Last edited by pauleam onn; 12 -20-2010 at 05:03 PM. Reason: Testicul ations

12-21-2010, 05:22 AM

tymen1

Chief Admin istrator

Join Date: Oct 201 0 Posts: 45

(96)

#85

Tymen – Sam’s basic ‘rules’ are to eyeball the area of supply or demand and make sure that the lines enclose

the area in which most of the trading was done (give or take a bit, his words, not mine).

Thank you Paul.

I think that after I have published the Profit Walk method, I will spend some time looking at this approach and try to

streamline some of the actions, such as the setting of the zones.

More definite rules are needed here.

In addition, some stronger rules may be needed to weed out the false areas fo supply/demand.

Also in need of consideration is the fact that when the price action retraces to the supply/demand zone, it sometimes

just goes straight through and does not do what you expected it to do.

12-21-2010, 06:09 AM

pauleamonn

Junior Member

Join Date: Dec 20 10 Location: Midlands UK. Posts: 22