CHILE
‐
JAPAN BUSINESS COMMITTEE
CHILE JAPAN
BUSINESS
COMMITTEE
CHILEAN
COPPER
MINING
AND
CODELCO
CHALLENGES
Nelson Pizarro C
December 2
nd, 2014
Nelson
Pizarro
C.
CEO
Chile:
An
attractive
mining
district
Year
2013
SHARE IN GLOBAL PRODUCTION SHARE IN GLOBAL RESERVES
32%
Chile28%
Chile Global Ranking: 1 Copper32%
68%
Others28%
72%
Others Molybdenum 15% 85% Chile Others 21% 79% Chile Others Global Ranking: 3 85% 79% Natural Nitrates 100% Chile 100% Chile Global Ranking: 1 Lithium Carbonate 39% 61% Chile Others Chile Others Global Ranking: 1 58% 42%Source: Cochilco, Codelco, USGS.
Codelco
has
a
great
future
CODELCO:
WORLD
LEADER
IN
COPPER
RESERVES
Leadership in copper reserves Estimated mineral resources
Our mineral resources let us expect more than 70 years of exploitation
Codelco 9%
Others Others
29%
Our mineral resources let us expect more than 70 years of exploitation
Mineral (million tonnes) Copper grade (%) Copper content (million tonnes) Share (%) Chuquicamata 2,147 0.70 15.1 11.6 Chile 19% Australia Peru Russia 4% China 4% q Radomiro Tomic 3,671 0.46 16.8 12.9 MH 936 0.95 8.9 6.8 Salvador 1,678 0.46 7.7 5.9 Andina 6,017 0.75 45.1 34.7 Australia 13% Peru 10% USA 6% Mexico 6% 4%
Source: U.S. Geological Survey, January 2014.
El Teniente 4,195 0.83 34.8 26.7
Gabriela Mistral 491 0.36 1.8 1.4
Codelco 19,136 0.68 130.2 100.0
Although,
copper
prices
has
shown
a
downward
trend
since
2011
…
475 500 900 1.000 Copper Price c/lbStocks in Metal Exchanges **
‘000 tonnes 425 450 700 800 350 375 400 400 500 600 C P i 275 300 325 100 200 300 Stocks in Metal Copper Price 250 275 0 100
ene 2011 jul 2011 ene 2012 jul 2012 ene 2013 jul 2013 ene 2014 jul 2014
Stocks in Metal
Exchanges
Price
prospects
remain
auspicious
in
the
long
‐
term
Long
‐
term
copper
price
forecasts,
c/lb,
2015
currency
400
FORECASTS EVOLUTION: BANKS AND ANALYSTS LATEST PROJECTIONS
334 355 CRU Wood Mackenzie 250 300 350 318 320 328 339 345 345 334 CIMB Group Barclays Capital BoA Merrill Lynch IHS Economics J.P. Morgan Analysts average CRU 150 200 250 299 299 304 304 305 317 UBS Macquarie Credit Suisse Goldman Sachs Commonwealth Bank Morgan Stanley p 100 2002 2006 2009 2011 2013
CRU Wood Mackenzie (Brook Hunt)
Structural Fiscal Budget Barclays Macquarie 301 253 269 269 279 281 285 B k & Oth Numis Wilson HTM Investec RBC Capital Markets Deutsche Bank Citigroup q 305 305 301 0 100 200 300 400 Average without extremes
Analysts, Banks & Others average Banks & Others average
Correlation between spot and long term
forecast: 0.67
Despite
the
trend
towards
more
discipline
in
capital
use
and
delays
in
projects,
important
investments
are
projected
in
the
coming
years
US$ billi 2014
Total Latin America: US$ 165 billion Total Rest of the World: US$ 127 billion
EXPECTED
INVESTMENT
IN
COPPER
PROJECTS*
WITH
STARTUP
DURING
THE
PERIOD
2014
‐
2023
21
60 70
WORLD TOTAL: US$ 292 billion
US$ billion, 2014 currency 65 49 29 30 40 50 27 2 44 20 24 16 7 6 11 15 10 20 30 22 14 12 12 11 11 8 8 7 7 13 27 2 6 5 6 8 8 1 3 12 14 7 6 11 11 6 6 11 -Possible More probable 7 7 Possible More probable
Sources: Codelco and Wood Mackenzie (September 2014).
Major
copper
projects
in
Chile*
with
startup
between
2014
and
2023
(without Codelco)
Name
Owner
Status
Startup
year
Production
‘000 tonnes
Investment**
US$ millionCaserones Pan Pacific Copper On commissioning 2014 174 4,080
Sierra Gorda KGHM On commissioning 2014 190 4,240
Antucoya Antofagasta Under construction 2015 76 1,900
Escondida OGP1
(Organic Growth Project 1)
BHP Billiton/
Rio Tinto Under construction 2015 107 4,199
REVISAR
(Organic Growth Project 1) Rio Tinto
Encuentro Oxides Antofagasta On feasibility 2016 45 760
Los Pelambres Expansion Antofagasta On prefeasibility 2020 95 7,000 Lomas Bayas Sulphides Glencore On prefeasibility 2020 97 1,600
El Morro Goldcorp On prefeasibility 2021 127 3,900***
Quebrada Blanca Hypogene Teck Resources On feasibility 2021 205 5,590 Santo Domingo Sur Iris Capstone Mining On feasibility 2021 87 1,700 El Abra Mill Freeport On feasibility 2022 198 5,000
Relincho Teck Resources On feasibility 2022 174 4,500
Collahuasi Phase 3 Anglo American/
Glencore On prefeasibility 2023 294 6,500
Sources: Codelco, SNL and Wood Mackenzie (3rd quarter 2014), companies’ reports and press releases.
*: The list includes highly probable and probable projects. Average production of copper content in the first 10 years operating at capacity.**:CAPEX according to companies’ reports or other sources.***: Currently under revision, as the company withdrew its EIA's in November 7, 2014.
Codelco’s target:
around
2.5
million
tonnes
of
annual
copper
production
by
2025
MINING
STRUCTURAL
PROJECTS
2019 2023
2019 2018‐2019
2014 2019 2019
Feasibility completed and early works
Under construction On feasibility
On commissioning On prefeasibility El Teniente New Mine Level 432,000 tpy Andina Expansion 343,000 tpy Chuquicamata Underground 367,000 tpy Radomiro Tomic Sulphides Phase II 354,000 tpy Ministro Hales 176,000 tpy Salvador
Inca Open Pit
196,000 tpy
Andina Transfer
161,000 tpy
Note: Projects production corresponds to the average of the first 10 years operating at design capacity.
US$ million, 2014 currency
Codelco
faces
an
unprecedented
investment
challenge
Investment
Program: history
and future (PND*
2014)
Production
contribution
of
all
the
Structural
Projects,
PND
2014
(under
construction
and
pending
approval)
3,000
Ministro Hales, Radomiro Tomic Sulphides Phase II, Chuquicamata Underground, El Teniente New Mine Level,
Salvador Inca Open Pit, Andina Transfer, Andina Expansion
p er 2,500 2,000 ‘000 to nnes of cop p 1,500 1,000 500
New Mine Level Teniente Chuquicamata Underground Inca Pit El Salvador New Andina Phase II Other Projects Andina Plan with Projects Plan without Projects Ministro Hales Sulphides R. Tomic – P. II
Primary Crushing System Andina
Codelco:
the
challenge
of
maintaining
production
in
the
short
and
medium
term,
despite
the
sharp
drop
in
ore
grades
GRADE
AND
TREATED
MINERAL**
(‘000 fmt)
COPPER
PRODUCTION*
Treated mineral Copper ore grade
1.600 1.800 2.000 1 00 1,05 1,10 270 000 315.000 360.000 (‘000 fmt) ‘000 dmt pp g % 800 1.000 1.200 1.400 0,90 0,95 1,00 180.000 225.000 270.000 200 400 600 800 0,75 0,80 0,85 45.000 90.000 135.000 * I d ’ i l d C d l ’ k i El Ab d A l A i S 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0,70 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ** U il 2010 d d F 2010 d i d
*:It doesn’t include Codelco’s stake in El Abra and Anglo American Sur. **:Until year 2010, treated ore grade. From year 2010 to date, mined ore
Projected
production
PND*
2014
and
critical
success
factors
•
Robust mine plans.
Production ‘000 fmt Treated ore grade (%)
1,0
2.000
•
Optimize the use of treatment capacity,
reaching design capabilities.
•
Increase
concentrator
recovery
and
smelter yield.
0,7
0,8
0,9
1.400
1.600
1.800
y
•
Higher rates of operational continuity.
•
Increased
own
and
third
parties
productivity.
0,4
0,5
0,6
800
1.000
1.200
•
Management alignment and leadership
in the administration of assets and
production processes.
0,1
0,2
0,3
200
400
600
•
Commitment of employees and the
entire organization.
0,0
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Business
and
Development
Plan
(PND):
2014
‐
2018
Investments
(on
cash
base)
and
Financing
2014‐2018 Annual average Share %
Total investment 23,542 4,708
Projects 20,190 4,038 86%
Deferred expenditure (mines development) 2 789 558 12%
US$ million, currency of the year*
Deferred expenditure (mines development) 2,789 558 12%
Contributions to societies 563 113 2% Financing 23,542 4,708 Internal 14,116 2,823 60% Net debt 5,426 1,085 23% Capitalization 4,000 800 17% Projects by objective** 20,190 4,038 Structural Projects 12,265 2,453 61% Sustainability 2,735 547 14% Development projects 2 712 542 13% Development projects 2,712 542 13%
Equipment replacement and facilities repairs 1,403 281 7%
Information 1,075 215 5%
Structural Projects 12,265 2,453
RT Sulphides Phase II 3,480 696 28%
Chuquicamata Underground 3,265 653 27%
El Teniente New Mine Level 2,881 576 23%
Transfer 975 195 8%
Andina Expansion 777 155 6%
Salvador Inca Open Pit 571 114 5%
Ministro Hales 317 63 3%
Ministro Hales 317 63 3%
Codelco’s Investment:
2015
PRELIMINARY
FIGURES*
$ ll
INVESTMENTS
BY
DISTRICT
PROJECTS
INVESTMENT
BY
OBJECTIVES
US$ illi US$ million
NORTH
DISTRICT
1,707
CENTER
SOUTH
DISTRICT
1,782
STRUCTURAL
PROJECTS
1,364
SUSTAINABILITY
847
US$ million
PROJECTS
INVESTMENT
3,489
MINE
DEVELOPMENT
AND
DEFERRED EXPENSES
800
SUSTAINABILITY
847
OTHER
DEVELOPMENT
PROJECTS
684
ENGINEERING
STUDIES,
DEFERRED
EXPENSES
CONTRIBUTIONS
TO
SOCIETIES
113
GEOLOGICAL
EXPLORATION AND
RESEARCH
362
EQUIPMENT
REPLACEMENT
AND
FACILITY
REFURBISHMENT
233
GRAND
TOTAL
ACCRUED
4,402
PROJECTS
INVESTMENT
3,489
Structural
mining
projects:
major
milestones
2014
‐
2015
• Chuquicamata Underground:
– Taking investment decision and start construction, beyond the early works.
• Chuquicamata Underground:
– Taking investment decision and start construction, beyond the early works.
• El Teniente New Mine Level:
– Further progress in the development and construction of mining works.
• El Teniente New Mine Level:
– Further progress in the development and construction of mining works.
• RT Sulphides Phase II:
– Environmental approval.
– Submit the First Stage of investment request.
• RT Sulphides Phase II:
– Environmental approval.
– Submit the First Stage of investment request.
• Andina Expansion:
– Continue advancing for environmental approval in 2015.
• Andina Expansion:
– Continue advancing for environmental approval in 2015.
• Salvador Inca Open Pit:
– Completion of pre‐feasibility study.
The
increase
in
costs
has
been
a
widespread
trend
in
the
industry
300
INDUSTRY
AVERAGE
COSTS
c/lb, currency of the year
240 260 280 300
Total Cathode Cost
160 180 200 220
Net Cathode Cost
80 100 120 140 Cash Cost (C1) 0 20 40 60 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
After
several
years,
during
2013,
Codelco broke
the
upward
trend
in
costs
standing
at
the
second
quartile
cut
of
the
industry
cost
200
DIRECT
CASH
COST
(C1),
CODELCO
AND
INDUSTRY
QUARTILES
c/lb, currency of the year
160 180 200 3rdquartile cut 100 120 140 2ndquartile cut 1st quartile cut 40 60 80 0 20 40 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
CODELCO
Since
2013,
Codelco
is
engaged
in
a
systematic
effort
to
increase
productivity
and
reduce
costs
Maximize copper production through:
• Identify opportunities that provide fine copper other than those defined in budget
Optimize
PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY
STRUCTURAL
PROJECT
OF
PRODUCTIVITY
AND
COSTS
(PEPC)
MODEL:
DETAIL
BY
LEVER
• Identify opportunities that provide fine copper, other than those defined in budget • Visibility and closing the gaps of bottlenecks
• Project of Breaks in Management
Promote initiatives to improve productivity:
• Project of Third Party Service Productivity (PPST)
Communic a performance in critical path Services
• FTE and Productivity Measurement
• Relationship with APRIMIN, CCHC, AGEMA and Mining Council • Management model based on KPI and Back Office (PGST)
Optimize budget management corporately: • Salaries ation plan and tr productivity
• Energy, supplies, materials and equipment • Energy efficiency
• Contracts, services and strategic supplies
• Third Party Services
Through savings on discretionary items, install a transverse message of cost
ransfer of good Budget Optimization g g y , g containment, including: • Vehicles • Consultancies • Service commissions • Cellphones practices Hygienic Factors COSTS COSTS
Our
challenge:
to
eradicate
fatalities
Number
of
Fatalities
and
Rate,
2000
– 2014*
Number of fatalities Fatalities per million of hours‐worked
0,12 12 0,079 0,104 0,084 0,085 0 08 0,10 8 10 0,076 0,054 0,053 0,06 0,08 6 8 0,038 0,039 0,042 0,023 0,033 0,024 0 0170,02 0,04 2 4 0,013 0,017 0,00 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FAT k FAT t t FAT t t l t
*: Year 2014 up to November 7.
Environment
and
communities:
PND
2014
goals
and
key
success
factors
50
SERIOUS
AND
VERY
SERIOUS
ENVIRONMENTAL
INCIDENTS
GOALS
• Zero serious and very serious environmental incidents.
• Zero serious or very serious sanctions of Environment Superintendence.
• Zero community conflicts with impact on business continuity or
i j t ti 20 30 40 50 in projects execution.
• Environmental and social approval of the Structural Projects.
0 10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
KEY
SUCCESS
FACTORS
*: Year 2014 up to November 12.
2011 2014
ENVIRONMENTAL
VULNERABILITIES
• Closing gaps associated with the most critical environmental vulnerabilities.
• Ensuring RCAs commitments.
2011 2014
Total 92 40
More critical 55 14
• Environmental Risk System integrated to the operation.
• Application of standards and tools for community management: close linkage with more critical localities.
CHILE
‐
JAPAN BUSINESS COMMITTEE
CHILE JAPAN
BUSINESS
COMMITTEE
CHILEAN
COPPER
MINING
AND
CODELCO
CHALLENGES
Nelson Pizarro C
December 2
nd, 2014
Nelson
Pizarro
C.
CEO