Pathways to LDC
Graduation
The Case of Nepal
SWARNIM WAGLÉ
Outline
1. LDCs: A Glimpse
2. Graduation and IPoA
3. Where Does Nepal Stand?
4. The Path Ahead
A Glimpse of the Club
1.
48 countries
◦
13% of world population; 1% of GDP; 1.2% of trade; 2% of FDI inflow
Began with 25 countries (with 3 eligible opting out)
2.
A diverse bunch, but shared vulnerabilities
◦
From Bangladesh to Tuvalu; Equatorial Guinea to Malawi
◦
Many are landlocked, remote, undiversified
7 countries account for 3/4 of LDCs’ exports
3.
Over 320 million people in 13 LDCs in Asia-Pacific
◦
Third largest in the world if a country (but economy comp. to Greece)
BGD
KHM
LAO
NPL
SLB
TMP
YEM
0
.05
.1
.15
.2
.25
Chang
e
in
no
n
-in
come
HDI
2000
-2013
-.5
0
.5
1
1.5
Log change in real GDP, 2000-2013
Source: WDI and HDR data
BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT BGD BTN KIR NPL VUT
0
15
30
45
60
Non
-mi
ner
al
e
xports
re
lati
ve to
GD
P
(%
)
6
8.5
11
Log of GDP per capita (PPP)
1995
AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT AFG BTN KHM NPL SLB VUT0
15
30
45
60
6
8.5
11
Log of GDP per capita (PPP)
2012
Source: WDI & UN Comtrade
Note 1: Non-mineral exports exclude ores and metals (SITC Divisions 27, 28 and 68) and fuel (SITC Section 3)
Note 2: Dashed vertical lines indicate global median income per capita (in log)
Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia Lao PDR Nepal Timor-Leste Tuvalu Vanuatu
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Se
rvi
ce
s
& man
ufac
turi
ng
in
GDP
(%
)
2001
-2
003
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Services & manufacturing in GDP (%)
2011-2013
Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia Lao PDR NepalTimor-Leste Vanuatu Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia Lao PDR NepalTimor-Leste Vanuatu Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia Lao PDR NepalTimor-Leste Vanuatu Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia Lao PDR NepalTimor-Leste Vanuatu Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia Lao PDR NepalTimor-Leste Vanuatu Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia Lao PDR NepalTimor-Leste Vanuatu Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia Lao PDR NepalTimor-Leste Vanuatu Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia Lao PDR NepalTimor-Leste Vanuatu Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia Lao PDR NepalTimor-Leste Vanuatu Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia Lao PDR NepalTimor-Leste Vanuatu Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia Lao PDR NepalTimor-Leste Vanuatu Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia Lao PDR NepalTimor-Leste Vanuatu Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia Lao PDR NepalTimor-Leste Vanuatu10
12
14
16
18
20
Log
of
re
al
e
xport
pe
r
capit
a 2
011
-13
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Services & manufacturing in GDP (%)
2011-2013
Source: WDI & UN Comtrade
Criteria
1.
GNI per capita
◦
$1035 for eligibility (2015 triennial review), 3-year average per Atlas method of WB
Threshold for graduation: 20% above ($1,242)
2.
Human Assets Index (HAI)
◦
Education: gross secondary enrollment ratio and adult literacy
◦
Health & nutrition: % of undernourished population and under-5 mortality rate
Threshold for graduation: 10% above the inclusion threshold of 60 (3
rd
quartile of ref. group)
3.
Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI)
◦
Exposure: population size, location, economic structure, environment
◦
Shock: trade (instability of exports); and natural (victims of natural disasters; instability of agri.)
Graduands
Istanbul Program of Action (IPoA):
“The overarching goal…is to overcome the structural challenges…to enable half of the
LDCs to meet the criteria for graduation…this is closely related to the objective to
achieve sustained growth of at least a level of 7 percent annually.”
Graduates so far:
Botswana (1994); Cape Verde (2007); Maldives (2011); Samoa (2014)
Expected by 2018:
Equatorial Guinea (2017); Vanuatu (2017)
Next in line (likely propelled by income):
Tuvalu, Angola, Kiribati, Solomon Island, Timor-Leste, Bhutan
Human Assets Index
Health and Nutrition Index (HNI)
Education Index (EI)
HAI
3 yr.
moving
average
Undernourishment in
population (%)
(PUN)
Under-5 mortality
(per 1,000 live births)
(CMR)
HNI
Gross secondary
school enrolment
ratio (%)
(GER)
Adult literacy rate (%)
(ALR)
EI
Value
Max-Min
Value
Max-Min
Value
Max-Min
Value
Max-Min
2012
16
81.6
41.6
80.8
81.2
65.8
62.0
58.2
44.3
53.2
67.2
65.3
2015
14
84.9
37.6
83.2
84.1
69.9
66.6
60.3
47.1
56.8
70.4
69.2
2018
11.6
88.9
35.6
84.4
86.6
75.9
73.2
62.1
49.4
61.3
74.0
72.8
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 In d e x Graduation Threshold ᵜ UNCDP Review Estimates of HAI *
Economic Vulnerability Index
Exposure
Shock
EVI
3 yr.
moving
average
Size
Location
Economic Structure
Environment
Trade Shock
Natural Shock
Population
Remoteness
Merchandise
export
concentration
Share of
agriculture
in GDP
Share of
population in
low-elevated
coastal zones
Instability of
Exports of
Goods and
Services
Victims of
Natural
Disasters
(VND)
Instability of
Agricultural
Production
NSI
Value
Max-Min
Value
Max-Min
Value
Max-Min
Value
Max-Min
Value
Max-Min
Value
Max-Min
Value
Max-Min
Value
Max-Min
2012
26.8
20.2
54.6
55.8
0.14
5.07
35.9
59.3
32.1
0.0
0.0
27.06
11.60
21.99
0.26
52.13
2.33
4.47
28.30
25.14
26.10
26.10
2015
27.9
19.6
49.2
49.0
0.14
4.86
34.73
57.1
31.0
0.0
0.0
24.93
11.04
20.12
0.28
52.83
2.21
3.85
28.34
24.23
24.58
24.91
2018
29.0
19.0
44.3
42.9
0.13
4.48
33.2
54.6
29.5
0.0
0.0
22.90
10.51
18.35
0.32
54.88
2.10
3.26
29.07
23.71
23.30
23.81
2021
30.1
18.4
40.0
37.5
0.13
4.27
31.8
52.2
28.2
0.0
0.0
21.06
10.00
16.67
0.32
54.88
2.00
2.70
28.79
22.73
21.89
22.36
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 In d e x
Economic Vulnerability Index
Graduation Threshold ᵜ UNCDP Review
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2022
US$
GNI per capita
Graduation Threshold ᵜ UNCDP Review
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
177
5
1785
179
5
1805
1815
1825
1835
1845
1855
1865
1875
188
5
1895
19
05
19
15
19
25
19
35
19
45
19
55
19
65
19
75
19
85
19
95
200
5
20
15
Nepal
USA
South Korea
Malaysia
India
China
Japan
Argentina
Source: Illustrated by Swarnim Wagle based on Bolt, J. and J. L. van Zanden (2013), New Maddison Project Database Note 1: Y-axis values in per capita Geary-Khamis international $ (1990)
