Merger Performance under Uncertain Efficiency Gains

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Merger Performance under

Uncertain Efficiency Gains

Rabah Amir, Effrosyni Diamantoudi and Licun Xue

NOTA DI LAVORO 79.2004

MAY 2004

CTN – Coalition Theory Network

Rabah Amir, CORE and Department of Economics, UCL

Effrosyni Diamantoudi, Department of Economics, University of Aarhus

Merger Performance under Uncertain Efficiency Gains

Summary

In view of the uncertainty over the ability of merging firms to achieve efficiency gains, we model the post-merger situation as a Cournot oligopoly wherein the outsiders face uncertainty about the merged entity’s final cost. At the Bayesian equilibrium, a bilateral merger is profitable provided that non-merged firms sufficiently believe that the merger will generate large enough efficiency gains, even if ex post none actually materialize.

The effects of the merger on market performance are shown to follow similar threshold rules. The findings are broadly consistent with stylized facts, and provide a rationalization for an efficiency consideration in merger policy.

Keywords: Horizontal merger, Bayesian Cournot equilibrium, Efficiency gains, Market performance

JEL Classification: D43, L11, L22

This paper has benefited from the comments of Francis Bloch, Claude d’Aspremont, Dennis Mueller, Christian Schultz and Christine Zulehner. Diamantoudi and Xue gratefully acknowledge the hospitality of CORE, where the research was initiated.

This paper was presented at the 9th Coalition Theory Workshop on "Collective Decisions and Institutional Design" held in Barcelona, Spain, on 30-31 January 2004 and organised by the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona.

Address for correspondence: Licun Xue

Department of Economics McGill University

855 Sherbrooke Street West Montreal H3A 2T7 Quebec Canada Phone: 514 398 3701 Fax: 514 398 4938 E-mail: [email protected]

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?Uhi@tit ThL_Uih thT*tc ic {S Vk _'SVk_{S V Af @?_ {HSV Af}

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hLTLt|L? S W? |i Lht|U@ti tUi?@hLc |i 4ih}ih _iUhi@tit UL?t4ih thT*tc ic

{FVk _'FVk_{FV ?f=}

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, @4T*i . L?t_ih |i T@h@4i|ih @*it d' f> e' > q' f @?_ f' =

3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0 0.5 1 1 0.5 0 Low Cost Belief Consumer Surplus Change

Low Cost

Belief Consumer Surplus Change

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, @4T*i H 54*@h*) |L |i ThiLt i @4T*i UL?t_ih |i T@h@4i|ih @*it d ' f> e' > q' f> @?_ f' .=

6.25 5 3.75 2.5 1.25 0 1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 2 0 Low Cost Belief Consumer Surplus Change

Low Cost

Belief Consumer Surplus Change

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|L |i @hi@ ihi s A d3f

f3fo @?_ |i tL*|L? tc i?Uic ?L| ?|ihLho Ai UL4T@htL?

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UL?_|L? uLh ?|ihLh tL*|L?c |@| tc uLh @** Es> fo *LU@|i_ ? *Lih h}| ULh?ih Lu |i

_@}h@4 Lh 4L_i* _Lit ?L| @_4| @? ?|ihLh tL*|L?

1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 6 4 2 0 Belief Low Cost

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W| t ?L| thTht?} |@| t?Ui i TiU|i_ ThL_Uih thT*t @*@)t ?Uhi@tit @?_ i TiU|i_ UL?t4ih thT*t t @4M}Ltc i TiU|i_ tLU@* i*u@hi U@? @*tL }L i|ih @)c @t **t|h@|i_ Mi*L

HWZ 's2_E{f2_{EDqn . Eqns{fH Edf Eqn 2 n {fEqn }2_neqEdf2_{Eqn 2}

Ai |hitL*_ Mi*iu uLh |i U@?}i ? i TiU|i_ |L|@* i*u@hi |L Mi TLt|i t h@|ih S

*L?} @?_ t ThL_i_ ? |i @TTi?_ OLiihc @t |i uL**L?} i @4T*it **t|h@|ic @ 4ih}ih t ?L| *!i*) |L Mi @h4u* |L |i tLUi|) @t @ L*i

, @4T*i b L?t_ih |i T@h@4i|ih @*it d' f> e' > q' f> @?_ f' =

3 2 1 0 _0.5 10 5 0 Low Cost Belief Welfare Change Low Cost Belief Welfare Change

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, @4T*i f L?t_ih |i T@h@4i|ih @*it d' f> e' > q' f @?_ f' .=

6 4 2 0 _0.5994 75 50 25 0 -25 Low Cost Belief Welfare Change Low Cost Belief Welfare Change

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Lhi 4TLh|@?|*)c u |i 4ih}ih t i TiU|i_ |L Mi ThL€|@M*ic |i? i TiU|i_ |L|@* i*u@hi ** @*tL ?Uhi@ti @t t uLh4@**) t|@|i_ ? |i uL**L?} ThLTLt|L?

hLTLt|L?  E@ W? |i Mit| U@ti tUi?@hL @t i** @t ? i TiU|i_ |ih4tc |i 4ih}ih ?Uhi@tit tLU@* i*u@hi i?iih |i 4ih}ih t i TiU|i_ |L Mi ThL€|@M*ic ic

{p Af ',{WZo Af @?_ {HWZ 'HW Z W Z A f=

EM W? |i Lht| U@ti tUi?@hLc |i 4ih}ih @*@)t *Liht tLU@* i*u@hic ic{WZk _?

f=

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1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 x y fo ' 1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 6.25 5 3.75 2.5 1.25 0 x y fo ' .

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11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 0.8 0.6 0.4

Number of merging firms Profits

Number of merging firms Profits

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' sEdeTk

3letltlftln EsEdeTo3l etltlftl

' dtleHT3ltlet2l ftl=

t| Lh_ih UL?_|L? )i*_t |i Mit| hitTL?ti u?U|L?G tl ' deHT_2e3lf=

| ?L iih)ML_) !?Lt |i ULt| Lu q M| ?L| |i ULt| Lu |i q| €h4 @?_ |i Mit| hitTL?ti u?U|L? Lu |i i@U L|t_ih MiUL4itG

tr ' df_eqeHtp=

Ai 4ih}i_ €h4<t Mit| hitTL?ti u?U|L?t @hiG

tk p ' dfe₂E_eqtr @?_ to p ' dfo₂e_eEqtr= AihiuLhi |i L|t_iht< ^@?||) tG tr ' d_ef_Eqs_{n }Effo= ih}i_ €h4t ^@?||)G tk p ' 2 Edf n_2es_{E n}Ef_qfoEq to p ' 2Edf n Ef_2ef_{E n}oE n_qqnsEq tp ' df_en_Eqqs_{n }Effo= AL|@* ^@?||)G To _' 2qEdf n Effo Eqn sEq 2eEqn  Tk _' 2qEdfsEffo Eq 2eEqn  HT' qEdf nsEffo eEqn  = hUiG Sk _' 2 Ednfq nsEffo Eq 2 Eqn  So _' 2 EdnfqEffo E nqsEq 2 Eqn  HS ' dnqf_{qn }sEffo= L?_|L?@* i TiU|i_ ThL€|t Lu i@U L|t_ih €h4G

k

r 'rnsEffo dE₂d_eEqf_{n }sEffoo

o

r 'rnEffoEs₂ d_eEs_qEf_{n }foEdfo

, TiU|i_ hL€|t Lu @ i@U L|t_ih €h4G f ' EdfsEffo 2 eEqn 2 = L?_|L?@* i TiU|i_ ThL€|t Lu |i 4ih}i_ €h4G o p ' d2 Edf n Effo E nqnsEqo 2 eeEqn 2 k p' E2 Edf nsEffo Eq 2 eeEqn 2 = , TiU|i_ ThL€|t Lu |i 4ih}i_ €h4G p 'sopn Eskp p ' ! + s 2_Ef of2Eqn  Eq nsEffoHqEdf n Effo Eqn 2 ne Efd2 " , eeEqn 2 = @?}i ? i TiU|i_ ThL€|tG {p ' _!p 2 + s 2_{Eqn  Eq Eqn 2}2_Ef of2 nsEqn 22EffoHqEdf n Effo Eqn 2 e Efd2Eq2₂ " , eeEqn 2E2 nq2

AhitL*_ Mi*iu @MLi U i TiU|i_ ThL€|t @hi }ih |@? Thi4ih}ih ThL€|tG

sW _' ! -+ Eqn 2HqEdf n Effo Eqn 2 n L Eqn 22HqEdf n Effo Eqn 2 nSEqn Eq Edf2Eq2₂ " . , 2Eqn EqEqn 2Effo 2D

H `i*u@hi @?@*)tt _i|@*t

, TiU|i_ |L|@* i*u@hiG HW Z ' sE2 Edf n Effo E nqnsEq2 eeEqn 2 nEsE2 Edf nsEffo Eq2 eeEqn 2 n Eq EdfsEffo2 eEqn 2 ns₂ d2 Ednqfo n E_{2 E}f_{qn }foEqEsn   2eEqn E2qEdf n EffoE nqsEq nEs₂ d 2 Ednqf n_{2 E}s_qE_{n }ffo Eq  2eEqn E2qEdfsEq Effo U hi_Uit |LG HW Z ' s2_Ef of2EDqn . Eq nsEffoH Edf Eqn 2 n Effoq2n 2qn  neqEfd2Eqn 2 @?}i ? i TiU|i_ |L|@* i*u@hiG

{HW Z ' ! + s 2_{EDqn . Eq Eqn 2}2_Ef of2 nsEqn 22EffoH Edf E2 nq n Effo Eqn 2 e Efd2E2qn " , H Eqn 2eEqn 22

AhitL*_ Mi*iu @MLi U i TiU|i_ |L|@* i*u@hi t }ih |@? Thi4ih}ih |L|@* i*u@hi s _' ! -+ Eqn 2HEdfEqn 2 n Effo Eqn 2n L Eqn 22HEdfEqn 2 n Effo Eqn 2 nSEqEDqn . Edf2E2qn " . , 2EDqn .EqEqn 2Effo

He hLLut

hLLu Lu hLTLt|L?  Ai 4ih}i_ €h4 t ThL€|@M*i u k

p A2

U hi_Uit |L s A 2 Edf s 22ns2q Effo Eqn 2 Eq 's kW

W| t i@t) |L tii |@| skW _{Af uq2= LhiLihcs}kW _{? u |i ULt| }@?t @hi tUi?|G}

2 Edfs22ns2q

Eqn 2 Eq ? ffo=

6Lh |i *Lih ML?_ L? ULt| }@?t |L Mi ui@tM*i Effo ? f | 4t| Mi |@| |i

Thi4ih}ih ULt| t @| *i@t|G

2ds22ns2q

2s22ns2qn Eqn 2 Eq ? f= L|i |@| |i *@||ih *Lih ML?_ L? f t @*@)t Mi*Ld=

hLLu Lu hLTLt|L? 2 W? |i Lht| U@ti tUi?@hL |i 4ih}i_ €h4 i T@?_t u @?_ L?*) u tk p 2t U )i*_t ssk p ' _Eff2qEdf oEq E2 nq=

`ihi@tc ? |i Mit| U@ti tUi?@hL |i 4ih}i_ €h4 i T@?_t u @?_ L?*) u to p 2t U )i*_t sso p ' 2qEd_Eff_f EffoEqn Eqn 2 o E2 nq Eq =

hLLu Lu hLTLt|L? |t_ih €h4t Mi?i€| uhL4 |i 4ih}ih @?_ i T@?_ |ih L|T| u @?_ L?*) u r @?_ tr t L| ?i^@*|it hi_Ui |L ssr ' _Efd_ff oEqn 2= 54*@h*)c |i 4ih}i_ €h4 i T@?_t |t L|T| u @?_ L?*) u tp 2t 2.

U hi_Uit |L

ssr=

6}hi  i T*@?@|L? L|i |@| u d3f

f3fo qn 2 |i? sr  i?Uic r

@?_ tr t uLh @** s5df>o= Wu |i 4ih}ih t ThL€|@M*i ? |i Lht| U@ti tUi?@hLc |i?

s A skW_{@?_ | i@t) |L tL |@|s}

r A skW uLh @** EdfAf @?_ uLh @** EffoAf t?Ui

|i ?i^@*|) hi_Uit |L q A 2EI₃₂23I2

2 U t @*@)t |hi Wu |i 4ih}ih t ThL€|@M*i

? |i Lht| U@ti tUi?@hL |i? | t ThL€|@M*i ? i TiU|i_ |ih4t @t i**c ic sW _{? s}kW_>

i?Uic sW _{? s}

r= W| uL**Lt 44i_@|i*) uhL4 |i i ThittL?t Thiti?|i_ ? |i ThiLt

tiU|L? |@| HT A Tu @?_ L?*) u s A sr=

hLLu Lu hLTLt|L? e E@ Ai ?i^@*|) Sk _{A S hi_Uit |L 2Edf nsEf}

foEqEqn 2 A f U t @*@)t |hi EM Ai ?i^@*|) HS A S hi_Uit |L

s ? d3f

Ef3foEqn2 'sr=EU Ai ?i^@*|) So A S hi_Uit |L

s A so_' Eqn Eqn 2Effo2Edf

EffoEqn Eq =

6}hi 2 @h!i| TihuLh4@?Ui ? *L @?_ } ULt| hi@*3@|L?t

6}hi 2 i T*@?@|L? 6Lh ?uLh4@|L? hi}@h_?}sr*LL!? i T*@?@|L? Lu 6}hi

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p @hi }hi@|ih |@?  i?Ui |ih hi*@|L?tT

t ?t}?€U@?| 54*@h*)c ?L|Ui |@| so _{ u @?_ L?*) u} d3f f3fo qn 2 @?_ s o _{f u} @?_ L?*) u d3f f3fo Eqn2Eqn

2 = }@? | t i@t) |L tii |@| qn 2 Eqn2E2qn t @*@)t

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Eic so _{? s}

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p A sr uLh @** EdfAf @?_ uLh @** EffoAf t?Ui

|i ?i^@*|) hi_Uit |L q A U t @*@)t |hi 6?@**) |i ?i^@*|) Tk _{A T}

hi_Uit |L 2Edf nsEffoEqEqn 2Af U t @*@)t |hi

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{SVk _' E2qEdfsEq Effo E2Edf nsEqEffo

eeEqn 2 Eqn

Edf2 eE2 nq2= +iU@** |@| i hi^hi |@| s ? d3f

f3fo uLh @? ?|ihLh tL*|L? L LMtihi |@| {SV

k t ?Uhi@t?} ? st?Ui g{S Vk gs ' 2Eq2_Eff o2 d3f f3fo s eeEqn 2 Af= Oi?Uic | tUit |L tL |@| {S Vk_m s'f Af= W?_ii_ {S Vk_m s'f ' Edf 2 e q Eqn 2 qn  E2 nq2 Af=

AL tL |@| {HSV Af i €ht| |@!i |t _ih@|i | hitTiU| |L s @?_ tii |@| t | TLt|iG g{HSV gs ' 2sEqn D Eq Eqn 22Efof2 n Eqn 22EffoH Edf n E nq2Effo eeEqn 2E2 nq2 Af

L|i |@| {HSV A f u {HSVms'f Af= Ai? LMtihi |@|

{HS Vms'f ' Edf

2_Eq2nq

eEqn 2_{Eqn 2}2 Af=

hLLu Lu hLTLt|L? S Ai U@?}i ? UL?t4ih thT*t ? |i Lht| U@ti tUi?@hL t }i? Mi*LG

{FVk _'  2 E2qEdfsEq Effo2 eeEqn 2  2 Edf2Eqn 2 Eqn 22e ?f Mtihi |@| {FVk _{t @ _iUhi@t?} u?U|L? LusMiU@ti 2qEdfsEq Eff}

oA

f W| t i@t) |L tii |@| @| s ' f ihi {FVk _{|@!it |t }it| @*i | t @*hi@_)}

?i}@|i

hLLu Lu hLTLt|L?  Mtihi |@| uLh {p Af | tUit |L tL |@|

s2_{Eqn  Eq Eqn 2}2_Ef

of2 n

sEqn 22EffoHqEdf n Effo Eqn 2

e Efd2q2_2Af

wi| |i ULiUi?| Lu s2 _{Mi _i?L|i_ M)}

p ' Eqn  Eq Eqn 22Efof2>

|i ULiUi?| Lu sMi _i?L|i_ M)

_p ' Eqn 22EffoHqEdf n Effo Eqn 2

@?_ |i UL?t|@?| Mi _i?L|i_ M)

_p 'e Efd2q2₂

= L|i |@| p> p Af> i?Ui {p t ?Uhi@t?} ? s=

L LMtihi |@| uLh {HW Z Af | tUit |L tL |@| s2_{EDqn . Eq Eqn 2}2_Ef

of2n

sEqn 22EffoH Edf E2 nq n Effo Eqn 2

e Efd2E2qn Af=

54*@h*)c *i| |i ULiUi?| Lu s2 _{Mi _i?L|i_ M)}

z ' EDqn . Eq Eqn 22Efof2>

|i ULiUi?| Lu sMi _i?L|i_ M)

z ' Eqn 22EffoH Edf E2 nq n Effo Eqn 2

@?_ |i UL?t|@?| |ih4 M) _z ' e Efd2E2qn = }@?c ?L|i |@| z> z A f>

i?Ui {HW Z t ?Uhi@t?} ? s=

i | ?L|i |@| z A p> z A p @?_ z A p= `i? {pEsW ' f i @i sW2 p nsW2p ' p= t?Ui z A p @?_ z A p i @i sW2z n sW2z A sW2 p n sW2p i?Ui sW2z nsW2z A p M| p ? z / p A z= Atc sW2 znsW2z A z U 4T*it |@| sW2znsW2znz Af/{HW ZEsWAf= AL UL?U*_ic i? s ' sW _{i @i {} pEsW ' f @?_ {HW ZEsW A f @?_ uLh @** s A sW _{i @i {} pEsWAf @?_ {HWZEsW Af t?Ui ML| {pEs @?_ {HW ZEs

@hi ?Uhi@t?} u?U|L?t Lu s @t @h}i_ i@h*ih

Ai U@?}i ? AL|@* `i*u@hi ? |i Lht| U@ti tUi?@hL t }i? M) |i uLh4*@ Mi*LG {W Zk _' E2qEdfsEq Effo E2Eqn 2Edf nsEqEffo HeEqn 2 Eqn  Edf2 eE2 nq2  2 Edf2Eqn 2 Eqn 22e =

W| t i@t) |L tii |@| {WZk _{t @ _iUhi@t?} u?U|L? Lus> |tc | tUit |L tL |@|}

{W Zk _{?f @| s' f ihi {W Z}k _{|@!it |t }it| @*i W?_ii_}

{W Zk_m s'f ' Edf 2 e 2q 2 Eqn 2E2 nq2 ?f= 2

NOTE DI LAVORO DELLA FONDAZIONE ENI ENRICO MATTEI Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Working Paper Series

Our Note di Lavoro are available on the Internet at the following addresses: http://www.feem.it/Feem/Pub/Publications/WPapers/default.html

http://www.ssrn.com/link/feem.html

NOTE DI LAVORO PUBLISHED IN 2003

PRIV 1.2003 Gabriella CHIESA and Giovanna NICODANO: Privatization and Financial Market Development: Theoretical

Issues

PRIV 2.2003 Ibolya SCHINDELE: Theory of Privatization in Eastern Europe: Literature Review

PRIV 3.2003 Wietze LISE, Claudia KEMFERT and Richard S.J. TOL: Strategic Action in the Liberalised German Electricity

Market

CLIM 4.2003 Laura MARSILIANI and Thomas I. RENSTRÖM: Environmental Policy and Capital Movements: The Role of

Government Commitment

KNOW 5.2003 Reyer GERLAGH: Induced Technological Change under Technological Competition

ETA 6.2003 Efrem CASTELNUOVO: Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model

SIEV 7.2003 Anna ALBERINI, Alberto LONGO, Stefania TONIN, Francesco TROMBETTA and Margherita TURVANI: The

Role of Liability, Regulation and Economic Incentives in Brownfield Remediation and Redevelopment: Evidence from Surveys of Developers

NRM 8.2003 Elissaios PAPYRAKIS and Reyer GERLAGH: Natural Resources: A Blessing or a Curse?

CLIM 9.2003 A. CAPARRÓS, J.-C. PEREAU and T. TAZDAÏT: North-South Climate Change Negotiations: a Sequential Game

with Asymmetric Information

KNOW 10.2003 Giorgio BRUNELLO and Daniele CHECCHI: School Quality and Family Background in Italy

CLIM 11.2003 Efrem CASTELNUOVO and Marzio GALEOTTI: Learning By Doing vs Learning By Researching in a Model of

Climate Change Policy Analysis

KNOW 12.2003 Carole MAIGNAN, Gianmarco OTTAVIANO and Dino PINELLI (eds.): Economic Growth, Innovation, Cultural

Diversity: What are we all talking about? A critical survey of the state-of-the-art

KNOW 13.2003 Carole MAIGNAN, Gianmarco OTTAVIANO, Dino PINELLI and Francesco RULLANI (lix): Bio-Ecological

Diversity vs. Socio-Economic Diversity. A Comparison of Existing Measures

KNOW 14.2003 Maddy JANSSENS and Chris STEYAERT (lix): Theories of Diversity within Organisation Studies: Debates and

Future Trajectories

KNOW 15.2003 Tuzin BAYCAN LEVENT, Enno MASUREL and Peter NIJKAMP (lix): Diversity in Entrepreneurship: Ethnic and

Female Roles in Urban Economic Life

KNOW 16.2003 Alexandra BITUSIKOVA (lix): Post-Communist City on its Way from Grey to Colourful: The Case Study from

Slovakia

KNOW 17.2003 Billy E. VAUGHN and Katarina MLEKOV (lix): A Stage Model of Developing an Inclusive Community

KNOW 18.2003 Selma van LONDEN and Arie de RUIJTER (lix): Managing Diversity in a Glocalizing World

Coalition Theory Network

19.2003 Sergio CURRARINI: On the Stability of Hierarchies in Games with Externalities

PRIV 20.2003 Giacomo CALZOLARI and Alessandro PAVAN (lx): Monopoly with Resale

PRIV 21.2003 Claudio MEZZETTI (lx): Auction Design with Interdependent Valuations: The Generalized Revelation

Principle, Efficiency, Full Surplus Extraction and Information Acquisition

PRIV 22.2003 Marco LiCalzi and Alessandro PAVAN (lx): Tilting the Supply Schedule to Enhance Competition in

Uniform-Price Auctions

PRIV 23.2003 David ETTINGER (lx): Bidding among Friends and Enemies

PRIV 24.2003 Hannu VARTIAINEN (lx): Auction Design without Commitment

PRIV 25.2003 Matti KELOHARJU, Kjell G. NYBORG and Kristian RYDQVIST (lx): Strategic Behavior and Underpricing in

Uniform Price Auctions: Evidence from Finnish Treasury Auctions

PRIV 26.2003 Christine A. PARLOUR and Uday RAJAN (lx): Rationing in IPOs

PRIV 27.2003 Kjell G. NYBORG and Ilya A. STREBULAEV (lx): Multiple Unit Auctions and Short Squeezes

PRIV 28.2003 Anders LUNANDER and Jan-Eric NILSSON (lx): Taking the Lab to the Field: Experimental Tests of Alternative

Mechanisms to Procure Multiple Contracts

PRIV 29.2003 TangaMcDANIEL and Karsten NEUHOFF (lx): Use of Long-term Auctions for Network Investment

PRIV 30.2003 Emiel MAASLAND and Sander ONDERSTAL (lx): Auctions with Financial Externalities

ETA 31.2003 Michael FINUS and Bianca RUNDSHAGEN: A Non-cooperative Foundation of Core-Stability in Positive

Externality NTU-Coalition Games

KNOW 32.2003 Michele MORETTO: Competition and Irreversible Investments under Uncertainty_

PRIV 33.2003 Philippe QUIRION: Relative Quotas: Correct Answer to Uncertainty or Case of Regulatory Capture?

KNOW 34.2003 Giuseppe MEDA, Claudio PIGA and Donald SIEGEL: On the Relationship between R&D and Productivity: A

Treatment Effect Analysis

ETA 35.2003 Alessandra DEL BOCA, Marzio GALEOTTI and Paola ROTA: Non-convexities in the Adjustment of Different

GG 36.2003 Matthieu GLACHANT: Voluntary Agreements under Endogenous Legislative Threats

PRIV 37.2003 Narjess BOUBAKRI, Jean-Claude COSSET and Omrane GUEDHAMI: Postprivatization Corporate

Governance: the Role of Ownership Structure and Investor Protection

CLIM 38.2003 Rolf GOLOMBEK and Michael HOEL:Climate Policy under Technology Spillovers

KNOW 39.2003 Slim BEN YOUSSEF: Transboundary Pollution, R&D Spillovers and International Trade

CTN 40.2003 Carlo CARRARO and Carmen MARCHIORI: Endogenous Strategic Issue Linkage in International Negotiations

KNOW 41.2003 Sonia OREFFICE: Abortion and Female Power in the Household: Evidence from Labor Supply

KNOW 42.2003 Timo GOESCHL and Timothy SWANSON: On Biology and Technology: The Economics of Managing

Biotechnologies

ETA 43.2003 Giorgio BUSETTI and Matteo MANERA: STAR-GARCH Models for Stock Market Interactions in the Pacific

Basin Region, Japan and US

CLIM 44.2003 Katrin MILLOCK and Céline NAUGES: The French Tax on Air Pollution: Some Preliminary Results on its

Effectiveness

PRIV 45.2003 Bernardo BORTOLOTTI and Paolo PINOTTI: The Political Economy of Privatization

SIEV 46.2003 Elbert DIJKGRAAF and Herman R.J. VOLLEBERGH: Burn or Bury? A Social Cost Comparison of Final Waste

Disposal Methods

ETA 47.2003 Jens HORBACH: Employment and Innovations in the Environmental Sector: Determinants and Econometrical

Results for Germany

CLIM 48.2003 Lori SNYDER, Nolan MILLER and Robert STAVINS: The Effects of Environmental Regulation on Technology

Diffusion: The Case of Chlorine Manufacturing

CLIM 49.2003 Lori SNYDER, Robert STAVINS and Alexander F. WAGNER:Private Options to Use Public Goods. Exploiting

Revealed Preferences to Estimate Environmental Benefits

CTN 50.2003 László Á. KÓCZY and Luc LAUWERS (lxi): The Minimal Dominant Set is a Non-Empty Core-Extension

CTN 51.2003 Matthew O. JACKSON (lxi):Allocation Rules for Network Games

CTN 52.2003 Ana MAULEON and Vincent VANNETELBOSCH (lxi): Farsightedness and Cautiousness in Coalition Formation

CTN 53.2003 Fernando VEGA-REDONDO (lxi): Building Up Social Capital in a Changing World: a network approach

CTN 54.2003 Matthew HAAG and Roger LAGUNOFF (lxi): On the Size and Structure of Group Cooperation

CTN 55.2003 Taiji FURUSAWA and Hideo KONISHI (lxi): Free Trade Networks

CTN 56.2003 Halis Murat YILDIZ (lxi): National Versus International Mergers and Trade Liberalization

CTN 57.2003 Santiago RUBIO and Alistair ULPH (lxi): An Infinite-Horizon Model of Dynamic Membership of International

Environmental Agreements

KNOW 58.2003 Carole MAIGNAN, Dino PINELLI and Gianmarco I.P. OTTAVIANO:ICT, Clusters and Regional Cohesion: A

Summary of Theoretical and Empirical Research

KNOW 59.2003 Giorgio BELLETTINI and Gianmarco I.P. OTTAVIANO: Special Interests and Technological Change

ETA 60.2003 Ronnie SCHÖB: The Double Dividend Hypothesis of Environmental Taxes: A Survey

CLIM 61.2003 Michael FINUS, Ekko van IERLAND and Robert DELLINK: Stability of Climate Coalitions in a Cartel

Formation Game

GG 62.2003 Michael FINUS and Bianca RUNDSHAGEN: How the Rules of Coalition Formation Affect Stability of

International Environmental Agreements

SIEV 63.2003 Alberto PETRUCCI: Taxing Land Rent in an Open Economy

CLIM 64.2003 Joseph E. ALDY, Scott BARRETT and Robert N. STAVINS: Thirteen Plus One: A Comparison of Global Climate

Policy Architectures

SIEV 65.2003 Edi DEFRANCESCO: The Beginning of Organic Fish Farming in Italy

SIEV 66.2003 Klaus CONRAD: Price Competition and Product Differentiation when Consumers Care for the Environment

SIEV 67.2003 Paulo A.L.D. NUNES, Luca ROSSETTO, Arianne DE BLAEIJ: Monetary Value Assessment of Clam Fishing

Management Practices in the Venice Lagoon: Results from a Stated Choice Exercise

CLIM 68.2003 ZhongXiang ZHANG: Open Trade with the U.S. Without Compromising Canada’s Ability to Comply with its

Kyoto Target

KNOW 69.2003 David FRANTZ (lix): Lorenzo Market between Diversity and Mutation

KNOW 70.2003 Ercole SORI (lix): Mapping Diversity in Social History

KNOW 71.2003 Ljiljana DERU SIMIC (lxii): What is Specific about Art/Cultural Projects?

KNOW 72.2003 Natalya V. TARANOVA (lxii):The Role of the City in Fostering Intergroup Communication in a Multicultural

Environment: Saint-Petersburg’s Case

KNOW 73.2003 Kristine CRANE (lxii): The City as an Arena for the Expression of Multiple Identities in the Age of

Globalisation and Migration

KNOW 74.2003 Kazuma MATOBA (lxii): Glocal Dialogue- Transformation through Transcultural Communication

KNOW 75.2003 Catarina REIS OLIVEIRA (lxii): Immigrants’ Entrepreneurial Opportunities: The Case of the Chinese in

Portugal

KNOW 76.2003 Sandra WALLMAN (lxii): The Diversity of Diversity - towards a typology of urban systems

KNOW 77.2003 Richard PEARCE (lxii): A Biologist’s View of Individual Cultural Identity for the Study of Cities

KNOW 78.2003 Vincent MERK (lxii): Communication Across Cultures: from Cultural Awareness to Reconciliation of the

Dilemmas

KNOW 79.2003 Giorgio BELLETTINI, Carlotta BERTI CERONI and Gianmarco I.P.OTTAVIANO: Child Labor and Resistance

to Change

ETA 80.2003 Michele MORETTO, Paolo M. PANTEGHINI and Carlo SCARPA: Investment Size and Firm’s Value under

IEM 81.2003 Alessandro LANZA, Matteo MANERA and Massimo GIOVANNINI: Oil and Product Dynamics in International

Petroleum Markets

CLIM 82.2003 Y. Hossein FARZIN and Jinhua ZHAO: Pollution Abatement Investment When Firms Lobby Against

Environmental Regulation

CLIM 83.2003 Giuseppe DI VITA: Is the Discount Rate Relevant in Explaining the Environmental Kuznets Curve?

CLIM 84.2003 Reyer GERLAGH and Wietze LISE: Induced Technological Change Under Carbon Taxes

NRM 85.2003 Rinaldo BRAU, Alessandro LANZA and Francesco PIGLIARU: How Fast are the Tourism Countries Growing?

The cross-country evidence

KNOW 86.2003 Elena BELLINI, Gianmarco I.P. OTTAVIANO and Dino PINELLI: The ICT Revolution: opportunities and risks

for the Mezzogiorno

SIEV 87.2003 Lucas BRETSCGHER and Sjak SMULDERS: Sustainability and Substitution of Exhaustible Natural Resources.

How resource prices affect long-term R&D investments

CLIM 88.2003 Johan EYCKMANS and Michael FINUS: New Roads to International Environmental Agreements: The Case of

Global Warming

CLIM 89.2003 Marzio GALEOTTI: Economic Development and Environmental Protection

CLIM 90.2003 Marzio GALEOTTI: Environment and Economic Growth: Is Technical Change the Key to Decoupling?

CLIM 91.2003 Marzio GALEOTTI and Barbara BUCHNER: Climate Policy and Economic Growth in Developing Countries

IEM 92.2003 A. MARKANDYA, A. GOLUB and E. STRUKOVA: The Influence of Climate Change Considerations on Energy

Policy: The Case of Russia

ETA 93.2003 Andrea BELTRATTI: Socially Responsible Investment in General Equilibrium

CTN 94.2003 Parkash CHANDER: The γ-Core and Coalition Formation

IEM 95.2003 Matteo MANERA and Angelo MARZULLO: Modelling the Load Curve of Aggregate Electricity Consumption

Using Principal Components

IEM 96.2003 Alessandro LANZA, Matteo MANERA, Margherita GRASSO and Massimo GIOVANNINI: Long-run Models of

Oil Stock Prices

CTN 97.2003 Steven J. BRAMS, Michael A. JONES, and D. Marc KILGOUR: Forming Stable Coalitions: The Process

Matters

KNOW 98.2003 John CROWLEY, Marie-Cecile NAVES (lxiii):Anti-Racist Policies in France. From Ideological and Historical

Schemes to Socio-Political Realities

KNOW 99.2003 Richard THOMPSON FORD (lxiii): Cultural Rights and Civic Virtue

KNOW 100.2003 Alaknanda PATEL (lxiii):Cultural Diversity and Conflict in Multicultural Cities

KNOW 101.2003 David MAY (lxiii): The Struggle of Becoming Established in a Deprived Inner-City Neighbourhood

KNOW 102.2003 Sébastien ARCAND, Danielle JUTEAU, Sirma BILGE, and Francine LEMIRE (lxiii) : Municipal Reform on the

Island of Montreal: Tensions Between Two Majority Groups in a Multicultural City

CLIM 103.2003 Barbara BUCHNER and Carlo CARRARO: China and the Evolution of the Present Climate Regime

CLIM 104.2003 Barbara BUCHNER and Carlo CARRARO: Emissions Trading Regimes and Incentives to Participate in

International Climate Agreements

CLIM 105.2003 Anil MARKANDYA and Dirk T.G. RÜBBELKE: Ancillary Benefits of Climate Policy

NRM 106.2003 Anne Sophie CRÉPIN (lxiv): Management Challenges for Multiple-Species Boreal Forests

NRM 107.2003 Anne Sophie CRÉPIN (lxiv): Threshold Effects in Coral Reef Fisheries

SIEV 108.2003 Sara ANIYAR ( lxiv): Estimating the Value of Oil Capital in a Small Open Economy: The Venezuela’s Example

SIEV 109.2003 Kenneth ARROW, Partha DASGUPTA and Karl-Göran MÄLER(lxiv): Evaluating Projects and Assessing

Sustainable Development in Imperfect Economies

NRM 110.2003 Anastasios XEPAPADEAS and Catarina ROSETA-PALMA(lxiv): Instabilities and Robust Control in Fisheries

NRM 111.2003 Charles PERRINGS and Brian WALKER (lxiv):Conservation and Optimal Use of Rangelands

ETA 112.2003 Jack GOODY (lxiv): Globalisation, Population and Ecology

CTN 113.2003 Carlo CARRARO, Carmen MARCHIORI and Sonia OREFFICE: Endogenous Minimum Participation in

International Environmental Treaties

CTN 114.2003 Guillaume HAERINGER and Myrna WOODERS: Decentralized Job Matching

CTN 115.2003 Hideo KONISHI and M. Utku UNVER: Credible Group Stability in Multi-Partner Matching Problems

CTN 116.2003 Somdeb LAHIRI: Stable Matchings for the Room-Mates Problem

CTN 117.2003 Somdeb LAHIRI: Stable Matchings for a Generalized Marriage Problem

CTN 118.2003 Marita LAUKKANEN: Transboundary Fisheries Management under Implementation Uncertainty

CTN 119.2003 Edward CARTWRIGHT and Myrna WOODERS: Social Conformity and Bounded Rationality in Arbitrary

Games with Incomplete Information: Some First Results

CTN 120.2003 Gianluigi VERNASCA: Dynamic Price Competition with Price Adjustment Costs and Product Differentiation

CTN 121.2003 Myrna WOODERS, Edward CARTWRIGHT and Reinhard SELTEN: Social Conformity in Games with Many

Players

CTN 122.2003 Edward CARTWRIGHT and Myrna WOODERS: On Equilibrium in Pure Strategies in Games with Many Players

CTN 123.2003 Edward CARTWRIGHT and Myrna WOODERS: Conformity and Bounded Rationality in Games with Many

Players