Update 2020: Environmental Effects Assessment Panel

EEAP Co-chairs:

Janet F. Bornman (Australia)

Paul Barnes (United States)

Krishna Pandey (India)

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV

radiation, and interactions with climate change

32

_{Meeting of the Parties}

to the Montreal Protocol

23-27 November 2020

Location: Global

Update 2020: Environmental

Effects Assessment Panel

Ø

The EEAP Updates contribute to the full Quadrennial

Assessments

Ø

The work was revised and refined during the EEAP

online meeting (17 September – 1 October 2020)

Ø

A final version for UNEP/Ozone Secretariat will be

provided in December 2020

EEAP work plan

Update 2020: Environmental Effects

Assessment Panel

SDG 5

Anniversary

The Update highlights the contribution of

the Montreal Protocol to environmental

and societal sustainability, and mitigation

of climate change

aligning with many of the UN Sustainable

Development Goals (SDGs)

FAO 75th

Anniversary

Update 2020: Environmental Effects

Assessment Panel

UN 75th

To request the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, in drafting

its 2022 report, to pay particular attention to the most recent

scientific information together with future projections and scenarios,

to assess the effects from changes in the ozone layer and

ultraviolet radiation, and their interaction with the climate

system, as well as the effects of breakdown products of

controlled substances and their alternatives on:

a) The biosphere, biodiversity and ecosystem health, including on

biogeochemical processes and global cycles;

b) Human health;

c) Ecosystem services, agriculture and materials, including for

construction, transport, photovoltaic use and microplastics

Terms of Reference

Update 2020: Environmental Effects

Assessment Panel

Update 2020: Environmental Effects

Assessment Panel

Ø

Interactive effects of stratospheric ozone, solar ultraviolet

(UV) radiation and climate change

Ø

Potential areas of concern: biodiversity, microplastics, TFA

Ø

Implications of unexpected events: COVID-19 pandemic

HIGHLIGHTS

Trifluoroacetic acid (TFA)

SARS-CoV-2

Update 2020: Environmental Effects

Assessment Panel

HIGHLIGHTS

Ø ODSs were responsible for about one-third of global warming

between 1955 and 2005 and one-half of the warming observed over the Arctic

Ø 2019: Warming of 0.5 – 1.0 °C has been avoided over large

mid-latitude land regions and ca 1.1 °C over parts of the Arctic

Ø 2050: the Montreal Protocol is predicted to prevent warming of:

1.5 – 2.0 °C over most extrapolar land areas 3.0 – 4.0 °C over the Arctic

1 °C on global scale

Ø UV-B radiation at low and mid latitudes is projected to increase in

the second half of the 21st _{century due to reduced cloud cover}

resulting from climate change UV radiation and climate

Update 2020: Environmental Effects

Assessment Panel

HIGHLIGHTS

Ø Thawing in the Arctic is disrupting ecosystems and releasing

carbon dioxide and methane from permafrost soils; and organic nitrogen from peatlands, increasing emission of N₂O, a major ODS

Ø 2019/20 Antarctic summer

heatwave lasted 4 months,

leading to accelerated snow melt, and increased

exposure of ecosystems to UV radiation

Eagle Island on the NE peninsula; peak February temperature of 65F/18C

Update 2020: Environmental Effects

Assessment Panel

Ø Model estimates* of skin cancers and cataracts avoided in the USA (1890 – 2100) due to the Montreal Protocol:

§ Melanoma: 11 million cases; 2.3 million deaths § Keratinocyte cancer: 432 million cases

§ Cataract: 63 million cases

Melanoma incidences, USA: Overall increases in adults, but are decreasing in adolescents and young adults

Ø UV-B radiation contributes to photosensitivity from oral

medications (e.g., thiazide, diuretics, quinine, antibiotics,

anti-depressants)

Potential significant public health risk: photosensitising drugs may induce skin cancer

* United States EPA; updated Atmospheric and Health Effects Framework (AHEF) model HIGHLIGHTS

Update 2020: Environmental Effects

Assessment Panel

Ø Biodiversity: UV radiation and climate change can reduce the

range/availability of suitable habitats for plants and animals

Ø UV-B radiation and factors associated with climate change affect

plant growth, pathogen and pest defence, and food crop quality

Ø Land-use changes: Forest loss in the tropics is increasing by

2,101 square kilometres/year, exposing dead plant material to solar radiation including UV radiation

Photodegradation by UV radiation causes accelerated carbon losses (with increased GHG effect) from these ecosystems

Globally, satellite data showed that total forest area declined by 3% between 1990 and 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

Update 2020: Environmental Effects

Assessment Panel

Ø UV radiation has multiple negative effects on all life history

stages of fish, including commercially-important species essential

for food security in many regions of the world

§ Negative effects: developmental abnormalities, decreases in

growth and body condition, lesions in skin, eyes, and other organ effects

Ø Exposure to UV-B radiation will increase in historically

ice-covered lakes as the Earth continues to warm

HIGHLIGHTS

Update 2020: Environmental Effects

Assessment Panel

Ø UV radiation: likely a key driver of contaminant breakdown in aquatic environments, reducing their concentration, but harmful photoproducts – toxic and carcinogenic – can also form

Ø Interacting effects of solar UV irradiation, ocean warming and

acidification increase toxicity of oil pollutants in reefs

Ø Widely-distributed plastics, such as styrofoam, can be

transformed by solar UV radiation to carbon dioxide and

dissolved organic carbon, contributing to climate warming

Ø Heavy metal ions in aquatic systems are concentrated by

micro-plastics after surface oxidation by UV radiation, promoting metal binding to the polymers, thereby increasing toxicity to organisms Ø Greater understanding of the biological and ecological effects

from breakdown products of plastics is needed

HIGHLIGHTS

Update 2020: Environmental Effects

Assessment Panel

Ø UV radiation: major contributor to urban and continental-scale air

pollution

Many organic compounds emitted by human activities and natural processes are transformed (photo-oxidised) by solar UV radiation into toxic products, decreasing air quality and damaging human health

§ Examples: ambient ozone, carbon monoxide, formaldehyde, and

aerosols

Ø Air quality is dependent on solar UV radiation in the

troposphere and thus on stratospheric ozone; including influenced

by transport of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere

Ø Air pollution contributed 7.6% of all deaths in 2016 (WHO)

HIGHLIGHTS

Air quality

Update 2020: Environmental Effects

Assessment Panel

HIGHLIGHTS

Ø Trifluoroacetic acid (TFA): forms from several hydrofluorocarbons

(HFCs) & hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs) in the atmosphere

Ø Current concentrations of TFA salts and related compounds in

soil and surface waters do not present risks of adverse effects in aquatic and terrestrial plants and animals

§ ‘no-observed-effect-concentration’ for aquatic species is typically > 10,000 μg/L

§ Rainwater samples: 0.210 μg/L (2018-2019; Germany)

Ø TFA emissions have been reported from landfills, transfer stations,

and incinerators in locations where manufacturing facilities produce fluorinated chemicals

Update 2020: Environmental Effects

Assessment Panel

HIGHLIGHTS

Ø Increased demand for cooling because of climate change and continued use of HFCs, and replacement products (HFOs): currently judged as low risks for ecosystems and humans Uncertain for other sources of TFA

Ø Similar conclusions for short-chain (< 6 carbons) perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) but with less certainty

Ø Longer chain PFASs:

§ Associations with some diseases in humans from exposure to perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS, C8) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA, C8) (biomagnified in the food chain)

Update 2020: Environmental Effects

Assessment Panel

HIGHLIGHTS

Linkages between COVID-19 (causing SARS-CoV-2 ), solar UV radiation, and the Montreal Protocol

Ø SARS-CoV-2 particles can remain viable on surfaces up to ca 28 days depending on surface material, temperature and UV radiation Ø The far-reaching, positive outcomes of the implementation of the

Montreal Protocol for life on Earth outweigh any potential

advantage for disinfection by higher amounts of solar UV radiation Ø The more intense UV-B radiation, as would have occurred in the

absence of the Montreal Protocol, would have exceeded UV-protective responses, and this effect would have been further

magnified by the COVID-19 restrictions and associated decreases in air pollution

The assessment of environmental

effects, including health, continues

to reinforce the multiple benefits of

the Montreal Protocol in reaching

the SDG targets

Update 2020: Environmental Effects

Assessment Panel