Level I Level II Level III Level IV Level V

(1)

Sex offender risk assessment with

STABLE-2007: Overview of new

norms and new combination rules

1

L. Maaike Helmus

Lmaaikehelmus@gmail.com

Wandering Vagabond

Andrew Brankley

Ryerson University, Toronto, Canada

Presentation at the Annual Conference of the New Zealand Psychological

Association

August 2017, Christchurch, New Zealand

2

Slides: Prepared by

Andrew Brankley

Karl Hanson, PhD

STABLE Development Team

Andrew Brankley, MA

Andrew

Harris, PhD

Maaike Helmus, PhD

Yolanda

Fernandez, PhD

3

THE 2017 STABLE-2007 EVALUATOR WORKBOOK

Overview

WHY

do we need a revised workbook?

What do

YOU

need to know?

Risk….

…Is a continuum

Bin 7

High

Mod-High

(2)

7

?

? 10

8

12

8

?

? 10

8

12 Standardized Risk Levels

• Normative data

–

Absolute Rates

–

Relative Risk

–

Percentiles

• Supervision

• Treatment

• Prognosis

Standardized Risk Levels

10

Level I

Level II

Level III

Level IV

Level V

Standardized Risk Levels

11

I

Very Low Risk

Prosocial, made mistake

II

Below Average

Minor concerns

III

Average

Typical problems for individuals with a

sexual offence history

IV

a

Above

Average

Chronic problems

b

Well Above

Average

More and more severe

V

Virtually Certain

Entrenched criminal profile

Standardized Risk Levels

12

I

Very Low Risk

Prosocial, made mistake

II

Below Average

Minor concerns

III

Average

Typical problems for individuals with a

sexual offence history

IV

a

Above

Average

Chronic problems

b

Well Above

Average

More and more severe

(3)

Hanson, R. K., Babchishin, K. M., Helmus, L.-M., Thornton, D., &

Phenix, A. (2017). Communicating the results of criterion

referenced prediction measures: Risk categories for the

Static-99R and Static-2002R sexual offender risk

assessment tools. Psychological Assessment, (5), 582–597.

doi:10.1037/pas0000371

STABLE-2007

• Percentiles, Items, and Total Score

• Report Writing Templates

Combined with Static-99R/2002R

• Standardized Risk Levels

• Relative Risk (Risk Ratios)

• Absolute Risk (Recidivism Estimates)

• Report Writing Templates

Combined with Risk Matrix 2000

• Nominal Risk Levels

• Absolute Risk (Recidivism Estimates)

• Report Writing Templates

14

Evaluator Workbook

p #

Evaluator Workbook

STABLE-2007

15

p 5

DSP

n = 795

STABLE-2007

16

p 5

Additional

Data

n = 4,292

DSP n =

795

>5x Bigger!!!

Additional Normative Data

Source

• Adult Males under

community supervision

for a sexual offence

• 2005 – Static-99

• Data pull 2013

N=4,511

_{British Columbia, Canada}

p 5

17

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 ₁₀

₁₁

₁₂

₁₃

₁₄

₁₅

₁₆

₁₇

₁₈

₁₉

20+

%

o

f

Sam

p

le

New

Original

Comparing Normative Data

Evaluator

Workbook

N/A

(4)

Item Frequency

19

p 7

STABLE-2007 Items

1) Significant Social Influences

2) Capacity for Relationship Stability

3) Emotional Identification with Children

4) Hostility Towards Women

5) General Social Rejection/Loneliness

6) Lack of Concern for Others

7) Impulsive Acts

8) Poor Cognitive Problem Solving

9) Negative Emotionality/Hostility

10) Sex Drive/Preoccupation

11) Sex as Coping

12) Deviant Sexual Interests

13) Cooperation with Supervision

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1

2

Total Scores and

Percentiles

21

p 8

Density of

Criminogenic Needs Score

Frequency

n = 3,407

Low

n = 740

0 59

1 170

2 223

3 288

Moderate

n = 2,035

4 330

5 322

6 291

7 293

8 225

9 220

10 185

11 159

High

n = 632

12 127

13 109

14 101

15 67

16 63

17 55

18 43

19 30

20 18

21 14

22 9

23 2

24 2

25 1

26 1

Low

Frequency

High

p 8

Density of

Frequency

n = 3,407

Defined as Midpoint Average

Percentile Rank 95% Confidence Interval Lower Limit Upper Limit

Low

n = 740

0 59 0.9 0.0 1.9 1 170 4.2 1.8 6.8 2 223 10.0 6.7 13.4 3 288 17.5 13.2 21.9

Moderate

n = 2,035

4 330 26.6 21.6 31.6 5 322 36.1 31.2 41.1 6 291 45.1 40.6 49.7 7 293 53.7 49.1 58.3 8 225 61.3 57.6 65.0 9 220 67.8 64.2 71.4 10 185 73.8 70.6 76.9 11 159 78.8 76.0 81.6

High

n = 632

12 127 83.0 80.7 85.3 13 109 86.5 84.4 88.5 14 101 89.6 87.7 91.4 15 67 92.0 90.6 93.4 16 63 93.9 92.6 95.2 17 55 95.7 94.5 96.7 18 43 97.1 96.2 97.9 19 30 98.2 97.5 98.8 20 18 98.9 98.4 99.3 21 14 99.4 98.9 99.7 22 9 99.7 99.4 99.9 23 2 99.9 99.7 100.0 24 2 99.9 99.7 100.0 25 1 >99.9 99.8 100.0 26 1 >99.9 99.9 100.0

Density of

Frequency

n = 3,407 Below Same Higher

Low

n = 740

0 110 0.0 1.7 98.3

1 241 1.7 5.0 93.3

2 340 6.7 6.5 86.8

3 401 13.3 8.5 78.2

Moderate

n = 2,035

4 486 21.7 9.7 68.6

5 478 31.4 9.5 59.1

6 425 40.9 8.5 50.6

7 417 49.4 8.6 42.0

8 344 58.0 6.6 35.4

9 325 64.6 6.5 28.9

10 278 71.1 5.4 23.5

11 238 76.5 4.7 18.8

High

n = 632

12 196 81.2 3.7 15.1

13 163 84.9 3.2 11.9

14 135 88.1 3.0 8.9

15 112 91.0 2.0 7.0

16 100 93.0 1.8 5.2

17 88 94.9 1.6 3.5

18 71 96.5 1.3 2.2

19 52 97.7 0.9 1.4

20 37 98.6 0.5 0.9

21 20 99.1 0.4 0.5

22 16 99.6 0.3 0.1

23 5 99.8 0.1 0.1

24 5 99.9 0.1 <0.1

25 4 99.9 <0.1 <0.1

26 1 >99.9 <0.1 0.0₂₄

(5)

Combination Rules

Static-99R/Static-2002R

25

p 8

Static-99R (N=4,236)

STABLE-2007

Frequency I -3 98

-2 120

II -1 303 0 439

III 1 508

2 704

3 731

IVa 4 503 5 378

IVb 6 205

7 135

8 73

9 25

10 13

11 1

12

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

I -3 2 14 17 13 11 16 5 4 5 1 6 1 1 1 1 -2 4 17 14 19 20 8 8 10 5 3 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 2

II -1 19 24 44 43 41 42 26 17 11 11 9 3 5 2 2 1 2 1

0 20 44 62 60 57 50 38 29 20 12 16 7 6 7 5 2 1 2 1

III

1 15 39 54 64 59 43 48 49 23 26 18 16 12 12 10 4 5 4 4 2 1

2 22 35 54 64 74 52 79 63 54 58 42 32 22 22 8 6 6 3 4 2 1 1

3 17 20 46 64 77 67 76 75 57 42 42 31 35 28 15 9 10 4 2 1 8 3 1 1

IVa 4 3 13 23 27 49 48 47 42 44 29 26 32 26 20 19 13 10 11 7 5 7 1 1 5 1 5 7 23 17 27 26 29 26 27 27 35 31 14 20 20 11 11 8 3 3 3 2 1 1

IVb

6 1 2 5 8 8 6 6 14 13 13 21 15 8 8 15 19 10 10 12 5 3 2 1

7 1 6 4 8 6 8 10 8 12 7 13 9 11 7 9 10 3 1 1 1

8 1 3 2 2 1 5 5 2 6 6 2 5 2 6 4 7 11 2 1

9 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 3 1

10 1 3 1 2 1 2 1 1 1

11 1

12

Static-99R x STABLE-2007 (N=4,236)

STABLE-2007

Low Moderate High

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

St

at

ic

-99R

Low

-3

Low

-2 -1 0 1

M

-L 2 _Moderate-Low

3

M

-H 4 _{Moderate-High}

5

Hi

gh

6

High

7 8 9 10 11 12

Original Static-99R/ STABLE-2007 Combination

STABLE-2007

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

St

at

ic

-99R

Low

-3



-2 -1 0 1

M

-L 2

_

3

M

-H 4

_

5

Hi

gh

6



7 8 9 10 11 12

Original Static-99R/ STABLE-2007 Combination

STABLE-2007

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

St

at

ic

-99R

Low

-3

Low Moderate-Low

-2 -1 0 1

M

-L 2 _Moderate-Low _{Moderate-High}

3

M

-H 4 Moderate-High High

5

Hi

gh

6

High Very High

7 8 9 10 11 12

Original Static-99R/ STABLE-2007 Combination

(6)

STABLE-2007

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

St at ic -99R Low -3

Low Low Moderate-Low

-2 -1 0 1

M

-L 2 _Low _Moderate-Low _{Moderate-High}

3

M

-H 4

Moderate-Low Moderate-High High

5

Hi

gh

6

Moderate-High High Very High

7 8 9 10 11 12

Original Static-99R/ STABLE-2007 Combination

STABLE-2007

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

St at ic -99R Low -3

X



X

-2 -1 0 1

M

-L 2

_X

_

_X

3

M

-H 4

_X

_

_X

5

Hi

gh

6

X



X

7 8 9 10 11 12

Original Static-99R/ STABLE-2007 Combination

STABLE-2007 Scores

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20+

St at ic -9 9 R S co re s -3

3

7

-2 -1

5

7

0 1

7

2 3 4

7

9

5 6

7

12

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20+

St at ic -9 9 R S co re s -3

3

-2 -1

5

0 1

7

2 3 4

9

5 6

12

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20+

St at ic -9 9 R S co re s

-3 2 14 17 13 11 16 5 4 5 1 6 1 1 1 1

-2 4 17 14 19 20 8 8 10 5 3 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 2

-1 19 24 44 43 41 42 26 17 11 11 9 3 5 2 2 1 2 1

0 20 44 62 60 57 50 38 29 20 12 16 7 6 7 5 2 1 2

1 15 39 54 64 59 43 48 49 23 26 18 16 12 12 10 4 5 4 4 2 1

2 22 35 54 64 74 52 79 63 54 58 42 32 22 22 8 6 6 3 4 2 1

3 17 20 46 64 77 67 76 75 57 42 42 31 35 28 15 9 10 4 2 1 8

4 3 13 23 27 49 48 47 42 44 29 26 32 26 20 19 13 10 11 7 5 7

5 1 5 7 23 17 27 26 29 26 27 27 35 31 14 20 20 11 11 8 3 3

6 1 2 5 8 8 6 6 14 13 13 21 15 8 8 15 19 10 10 12 5 3

7 1 6 4 8 6 8 10 8 12 7 13 9 11 7 9 10 3

8 1 3 2 2 1 5 5 2 6 6 2 5 2 6 4 7 11 2

9 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 1 1 1 2

10+ 1 3 1 2 1 2

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 I -3

-2

II -1 19 24 4443 4142 2617 11 11 9 3 5 2 2 1 2 1

0 20 44 6260 5750 3829 20 1216 7 6 7 5 2 1 2 1

III

1 15 39 5464 5943 4849 23 2618 1612 12 10 4 5 4 4 2 1 2 22 35 5464 7452 7963 54 5842 3222 22 8 6 6 3 4 2 1 1 3 17 20 4664 7767 7675 57 4242 3135 28 15 9 10 4 2 1 8 3 1 1

IV a

4 3 13 2327 4948 4742 44 2926 3226 20 1913 1011 7 5 7 1 1 5 1 5 7 23 1727 2629 26 2727 3531 14 2020 1111 8 3 3 3 2 1 1 6 1 2 5 8 8 6 6 14 13 1321 15 8 8 1519 1010 12 5 3 2 1

1 6 4 8 6 8 10 8 12 7 13 9 11 7 9 10 3 1 1 1

1 3 2 2 1 5 5 2 6 6 2 5 2 6 4 7 11 2 1

2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 3 1

1 3 1 2 1 2 1 1 1

11 1

12

(7)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 I -3

-2

II -1 1924 4443 41 4226 1711 11 9 3 5 2 2 1 2 1

0 2044 6260 57 5038 2920 12 16 7 6 7 5 2 1 2 1

III

1 1539 5464 59 4348 4923 26 1816 1212 10 4 5 4 4 2 1 2 2235 5464 74 5279 6354 58 4232 2222 8 6 6 3 4 2 1 1 3 1720 4664 77 6776 7557 42 4231 3528 15 9 10 4 2 1 8 3 1 1

IV a

4 3 13 2327 49 4847 4244 29 2632 2620 19 1310 11 7 5 7 1 1 5 1 5 7 23 17 2726 2926 27 2735 3114 20 2011 11 8 3 3 3 2 1 1 6 1 2 5 8 8 6 6 1413 13 2115 8 8 15 1910 1012 5 3 2 1

1 6 4 8 6 8 10 8 12 7 13 9 11 7 9 10 3 1 1 1

1 3 2 2 1 5 5 2 6 6 2 5 2 6 4 7 11 2 1

2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 3 1

1 3 1 2 1 2 1 1 1

11 1

12

Static-99R Risk

Level I

x STABLE-2007

What STABLE-2007 score is

normal



at

Level I

?

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 I -3

₃

-2

Static-99R Risk

Level I,

STABLE-2007 = 3

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 I

-3

3

-2

What’s an abnormal STABLE-2007 score?

𝑆𝐸𝐸

STABLE−2007

= 4.5

39

4

5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 I

-3 2 14 1713 1116 5 4 5 1 6 1 1 1 1

-2 4 17 1419 20 8 8 10 5 3 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 II -1 19 24 4443 4142 2617 11 11 9 3 5 2 2 1 2 1

0 20 44 6260 5750 3829 20 1216 7 6 7 5 2 1 2 1

III

1 15 39 5464 5943 4849 23 2618 1612 12 10 4 5 4 4 2 1

2 22 35 5464 7452 7963 54 5842 3222 22 8 6 6 3 4 2 1 1

3 17 20 4664 7767 7675 57 4242 3135 28 15 9 10 4 2 1 8 3 1 1

IV a

4 3 13 2327 4948 4742 44 2926 3226 20 1913 1011 7 5 7 1 1

5 1 5 7 23 1727 2629 26 2727 3531 14 2020 1111 8 3 3 3 2 1 1

6 1 2 5 8 8 6 6 14 13 1321 15 8 8 1519 1010 12 5 3 2 1

1 6 4 8 6 8 10 8 12 7 13 9 11 7 9 10 3 1 1 1

1 3 2 2 1 5 5 2 6 6 2 5 2 6 4 7 11 2 1

2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 3 1

1 3 1 2 1 2 1 1 1

11 1

12

Static-99R Risk

Level I

x STABLE-2007 (N=4,236)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

I -3

_I

_II

_III

-2

Create Boundaries at +1 and +2 SEE

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20+

S

ta

ti

c

-9

9

R

S

c

o

re

s

-3

I

II

III

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10+

(8)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20+

S ta ti c -9 9 R S c o re s -3

I

II

III

-2

-1

I

II

III

IVa

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20+



X



X

XX

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20+

S ta ti c -9 9 R S c o re s

-3 I I I I I I I I II II II II III III III III III III III III III

-1 I I II II II II II II II II III III III III IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa

0 I I II II II II II II II II III III III III IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa

1 II II II III III III III III III III III III IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVb IVb IVb IVb

4 III III III III III IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb

6 III III III IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb

10+ III III III IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20+

46

p 9

“Fred”

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20+

47

p 9

“Fred”

Static-99R 1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20+

1 II II II III III III III III III III III III IVaIVaIVa IVa IVa IVb IVb IVb IVb

4 III III III III III IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVaIVaIVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb

5 III III III III III IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVaIVaIVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb

6 III III III IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVb IVb IVb IVb IVbIVbIVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb

10+ III III III IVa IVa IVa IVa IVa IVb IVb IVb IVb IVbIVbIVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb IVb

48

p 9

“Fred”

Static-99R 1

(9)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20+

S

ta

ti

c

-9

9

R

S

c

o

re

s

49

p 9

“Fred”

Static-99R 1

STABLE-2007 13

Risk Level

IVa

Combination Rules

Static-99R/Static-2002R

50

p 8

p 9

Approximate Risk Ratios

(Diagram to Scale)

III

1 IVa

2 IVb

3 to 4

II 0.5

I 0.25

p 11

Recidivism Rates for

Static-99R/STABLE-2007

Recidivism Rates

1 Year 3 Years 5 Years

% 95% CI % 95% CI % 95% CI

Level III “Average” (n = 237)

Sexual Recidivism 3.8 1.4 6.3 6.1 3.0 9.1 7.5 4.1 11.0

Sexual (including sexual

breaches) 3.8 1.4 6.3 6.1 3.0 9.1 8.1 4.5 11.6

Violent

(including contact sexual) 6.0 2.9 9.0 9.5 5.7 13.3 13.5 9.0 18.0

Any Crime Recidivism 9.0 5.3 12.6 15.3 10.6 19.9 20.8 15.4 26.2

Any Recidivism

(including breaches) 11.5 7.4 15.6 20.0 14.9 25.2 26.7 20.8 32.6

Level I

Level II

Level III

Level IVa

Level IVb

Low

Mod-Low

Mod-High

High

Very High

0

50

100

150

200

250

300 -300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0 Ne

w

Ol

d

Frequencies

0

50

100

150

200

250

300 -300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0 Ne

w

Ol

d

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

(10)

Combination Rules

Risk Matrix 2000

-Unchanged…..for now

55

p 14

Report Writing

Templates

56

p 18

p 19

Guidance For Selecting Report Writing Templates

Table 12

Section Sub-Sections

1. STABLE-2007

(Select 1.1 or 1.2)

1.1 Simple Description

1.2 Detailed Description

2. Integration with STATIC Risk Tools

2.1 Combined Standardized Risk Level

(Select one from 2.1.1 - 2.1.5 as needed)

2.1.1 Level I 2.1.2 Level II 2.1.3 Level III 2.1.4 Level IVa 2.1.5 Level IVb 2.2 Recidivism Estimates

2.3 Relative Risk Ratios 3. Integration with

Risk Matrix 2000

3.1 Nominal Risk Level 3.2 Recidivism Estimates

Youtube Videos!

• More detailed version of this talk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wkqzii8Gdj0&t

=41s

• Less detailed version of this talk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usdZWdaThJU

&t=8s

Can obtain the slides too!

58