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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

8

8thth RED Business RED Business ForumForum

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nvestment

Urban Codes of Tomorrow

C. Akantziliotou, V. Vlachostergiou and T. Mitrakos

Real Estate Market Analysis Section

Bank of Greece

8 October 2013

Venue of the Conference:

MEGARON, Nikos Skalkotas Hall, Athens

Current developments and prospects

of the Greek property market *

*The views expressed in this presentation are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Bank of Greece.

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Outline

Outline

¾

Characteristics and recent developments of the Greek real estate market

ƒ Values and transactions

ƒ Private building activity, employment, investment and other short

term indicators

¾

Financing of the real estate market and financial stress

¾

Determinants of the residential property value in Greek cities

¾

Recent reforms, risks and pending issues

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Characteristics and recent developments

Characteristics and recent developments

in the real estate market in Greece

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Specific features of the Greek housing market

Specific features of the Greek housing market

‰ High rate of home ownership (80%)

‰ Low mobility and trading volume over the stock

‰ High transaction costs

‰ Significant impact of fiscal measures in the housing market

‰ The construction industry in Greece is fragmented (particularly in the residential market)

‰ Difficulties in monitoring the real transaction prices

‰ Non-homogeneous product (residential and commercial property)

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Residential Property Prices

Residential Property Prices and Growth Rateand Growth Rate

9Cumulated adjustment of -37.9% in real terms and -31.1% in nominal terms since the current financial crisis (2008 Q3 - 2013 Q2)

Source: BoG, data collected from credit institutions

70.5 102.2 60.9 -6 14 34 54 74 94 114 Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 R e si den ti a l P rop er ty P ri ce I n dex ( 2 007= 100) -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 % A n nua l C h a n ge of r e a l G D P

Growth Rate (right-hand scale) House Price Index (nominal) House Price Index (real)

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Indices of apartments prices by age and geographical area

Indices of apartments prices by age and geographical area

(Annual average percentage changes)

9Gradual decline in price resilience during the current crisis

9Stronger decline in the two major urban centers, Athens and Thessaloniki

9An even greater price reductions based on real estate agents Source: BoG, data collected from credit institutions

1Data collected from real estate agencies

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-Q1 2013-Q2

2008 Q3 up to 2013 Q2

All apartments (Greece) 1.7 -3.7 -4.7 -5.5 -11.7 -11.3 -11.6 -31.1

a1. New (up to 5 years old) 2.3 -2.0 -4.2 -5.0 -12.1 -10.3 -11.3 -30.0 a2. Old (5 years old and above) 1.3 -4.8 -5.0 -5.8 -11.4 -12.0 -11.8 -31.8

b1. Athens 0.9 -4.6 -3.2 -6.4 -11.8 -12.6 -12.7 -31.9

b2. Thessaloniki 1.5 -6.0 -7.4 -6.8 -13.6 -7.2 -10.5 -34.7 b3. Other cities 1.8 -2.7 -5.3 -4.1 -10.7 -11.4 -11.5 -29.3 b4. Other areas 3.3 -1.9 -5.8 -4.1 -11.7 -10.2 -10.0 -29.6 c1. Urban areas 1.5 -4.3 -4.4 -5.5 -11.7 -11.2 -11.7 -31.4 c2. Other urban areas (excl. Athens)1 2.6 -2.9 -6.7 -7.5 -12.2 -12.9 -32.1

Annual average percentage changes Indices of apartments prices by age and

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Real Estate Agencies Survey

Real Estate Agencies Survey: 20: 2009 09 –– 2013 Q2 results2013 Q2 results

Annual percentage changes of residential and commercial

Annual percentage changes of residential and commercial

property prices

property prices

2008-2012: Decline in residential property prices on average (y-o-y) by 38.7% and in commercial properties by approx. 45% (Offices:-43.4%, Retail:-46.0% and Warehouses – Industrial:-44.4%).

Source: BoG, data collected from real estate agencies -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 A n n u al % C h an g e in p ri ces Offices Retail Warehouses - Industrial Residential

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Real Estate Agencies Survey

Real Estate Agencies Survey: 20: 2009 09 –– 2013 Q2 results2013 Q2 results

Share of transactions using bank loans

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Share of cost covered by the bank loan 

(only in the cases of transactions using bank loans)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Discount rate of final price compared to initial asking price

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Average waiting time for apartment sale (in months)

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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House

House priceprice--toto--rentrent ratioratio

9 In some extent a correction of overvaluation has already taken place

9House price-to-rent ratio: -32.3% lower from its peak (2006-Q4)

Sources: House Price Index (BoG), Price Index of Rents (ELSTAT)

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III*IV* I* II*

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115

Average annual change in the house price index (left-hand scale) Average annual change in the price index of rents (left-hand scale) Price-to-rent ratio (2007=100, right-hand scale)

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Number of transactions in the real estate market (in

Number of transactions in the real estate market (in thousthous.).)

Source: ELSTAT (2004-11), *BoG estimates (2012)

*Turnover: Ratio of transactions to stock of housing units (%)

166.0 215.1 172.9 167.7 158.0 136.0 117.9 83.7 46.5 11.8 0 50 100 150 200 250 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* N u m b er o f tr an sacti o n s (i n t hous .) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Pe rc en ta g e Total Greece Athens

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Private

Private construction construction activityactivity

(Annual average percentage changes)

Source: ELSTAT

9 Sharp decline in construction activity during the current crisis

9An even greater reduction in the Athens area

Greece - Total -40.0 -40.7-37.3 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-H1

Number of Building Permits

Floor Space of Buildings (in square meters) Volume of Buildings (in cubic meters)

Cement Production Volume

Year Permits Volume (m3)

2007 76,969 78,206 2008 64,986 64,800 2009 55,679 46,925 2010 49,608 36,289 2011 35,539 22,618 2012 22,415 15,686 2013-6 months 7940(-40.0%) 5388.6 (-37.3%) 2013 June 1331 (-31,7%) 930.3 (-15,2%) Country total

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Employment in construction

Employment in construction

(thousand people)

Source: ELSTAT, Labour Force Survey

9Total employment in construction decreases dramatically

401.8 172.4 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Ι ΙΙ ΙΙΙ ΙV Ι ΙΙ ΙΙΙ ΙV Ι ΙΙ ΙΙΙ ΙV Ι ΙΙ ΙΙΙ ΙV Ι ΙΙ ΙΙΙ ΙV Ι ΙΙ ΙΙΙ ΙV Ι ΙΙ ΙΙΙ ΙV Ι ΙΙ 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Family workers Employees

Self-employed person without employees Self-employed person with employees

Employment in Construction 2007 Q3 - 2013 Q2 Total employment -57.1 Self-employed person with employees -69.0 Self-employed person without employees -17.0 Employees -65.2

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Total construction and residential investment (at constant price

Total construction and residential investment (at constant prices) as % s) as % of GDP and real house prices

of GDP and real house prices

Sources: House Price Index (BoG, Real house prices deflated with HICP), Residential and Construction Investment, HICP and GDP (ELSTAT)

9 Strong decline in residential investment (2007: 12.4% of GDP, 2013 Q2: 2.3%)

2.3 6.4 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q2 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Residential Investment as % of GDP Construction Investment as % of GDP

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Residential investment Residential investment Sources: AMECO 2013* forecasts

9Stronger decline in residential investment compared to investment in total

economy (excl. residential)

GFCF at current prices as percentage of GDP

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Financing of the real estate market and

Financing of the real estate market and

financial stress

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Domestic MFIs credit to households

Domestic MFIs credit to households

Source: BoG

9Continuous deceleration of credit expansion to households

9 Reluctant house buyers and cautious banks to extend new mortgages

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Ma r Ma y Ju n Se p No v Jan Ma r Ma y Ju n Se p No v Jan Ma r Ma y Ju n Se p No v Jan Ma r Ma y Ju n Se p No v Jan Ma r Ma y Ju n Se p No v Jan Ma r Ma y Ju n Se p No v Jan Ma r Ma y Ju n Se p No v Jan Ma r Ma y Ju n Se p No v Jan Ma r Ma y Ju n 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 % C h an g e y-o -y Total Loans Housing Loans

Year LoansTotal Housing Loans

2005 31.4 33.5 2006 25.4 25.9 2007 22.2 21.5 2008 12.6 11.2 2009 3.1 3.7 2010 -1.2 -0.3 2011 -3.9 -2.9 2012 -3.8 -3.4 2013 Aug -3.6 -3.2

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Credit to Individuals and PNPI

Credit to Individuals and PNPI: Over Time: Over Time

Source: BoG, Domestic MFIs excluding the Bank of Greece

Credit to Individuals and Private non-Profit Institutions (in billion euro)

15.5 21.1 26.6 33.8 45.2 56.9 69.1 77.4 80.2 80.2 78.0 74.3 71.7 7.9 9.8 12.4 17.0 21.8 26.5 31.9 36.4 36.0 35.1 33.0 30.2 29.2 0.3 0.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-Aug

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Housing loans interest rates

Housing loans interest rates

9Continuous decline in mortgage rates since mid-2011 (debt restructuring).

Source: BoG 3.0 5.0 5.8 3.6 5.3 3.1 4.0 5.2 3.6 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l Se p No v Ja n Ma r Ma y Ju l 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (% ) pe r a n num

Interest rates on all new housing loans including charges

Interest rates on outstanding housing loans with initial maturity of over 5 years

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Determinants of residential property values

Determinants of residential property values

in Greek cities

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Variable description in the hedonic model

Variable description in the hedonic model (1/3)(1/3)

Variable name Variable description

De p en d en t var iab le

ln_value Ln of property value (Dependent variable)

TM TOTAL SPACE AREA Total space area in square meters excluding ouliers

TM_SQ Property area square

AGE Age at the time of valuation

AGE_SQ Age square at the time of valuation

FLOOR Floor level. Values from -2 to 8.

AUXIL Area of auxiliary spaces in square meters

mezonetta Property type: mezonettes

d_store Existing store rooms

d_park Existing parking spaces

quality Excellent construction quality

renovated Recent refurbishment

Dummy variables P ro p er ty t ech n ical ch ar act er ist ic s Source: BoG

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Variable description in the hedonic model

Variable description in the hedonic model (2/3)(2/3)

Variable name Variable description

Infra Infrastructure quality (values: 1=poor to 5=excellent)

BuiltEnv Built environment quality (values: 1=poor to 5=excellent)

SD_median Building factor within the municipality

Density Population density

NaturalEnv Natural environment quality (values: 1=poor to 5=excellent)

Uses Compatibilty of uses (values: 1=poor to 5=excellent)

d_region Geographical areas (40 sub-markets)

d_level1 Urban areas

d_level2 Semi-urban areas

d_level3 Rural areas

view Excellent view

depreciated Depreciated location

university Existence of University

access Accessibility

seaside_new Sea front

mountain_tourist Mountain touristic location

Hospital Existence of hospital

Airport Existence of airport

Dummy variables L o cat io n Source: BoG

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Variable name Variable description

Population_nomos Prefecture population

GDP_2010_nomos Gross Domestic Product (prefectures)

d_Y Years 2006 to 2013

d_Q Quarters D_Q1, D_Q2, D_Q3, D_Q4 within the year

C re d it in st i-tu tio n s

d_BANK Dummy variables for credit institutions (44 variables)

Ti m e var iab le s Ma cr o -ec onom ic var iab le s Dummy variables

Variable description in the hedonic model

Variable description in the hedonic model (3/3)(3/3)

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Descriptive statistics of the variables used in the hedonic mode

Descriptive statistics of the variables used in the hedonic modelsls (1/2)(1/2)

Variable name # cases Mean Min Max St.Dev

ln_value 338,354 11.86 8 15 0.60

TM TOTAL SPACE AREA 338,354 97.73 20 440 48.46

AGE 285,480 15.49 0 163 15.72 FLOOR 333,161 1.80 -2 8 1.67 AUXIL 338,354 3.22 0 216 11.77 d store 338,354 0.21 0 1 0.41 d_park 338,354 0.10 0 1 0.30 quality 338,354 0.05 0 1 0.21 renovated 338,354 0.02 0 1 0.14 depreciated 338,354 0.00 0 1 0.06 access 330,546 0.80 0 1 0.40 seaside_new 330,546 0.77 0 1 0.42 mountain_tourist 330,546 0.04 0 1 0.19 Hospital 330,546 0.27 0 1 0.44 Airport 330,546 0.17 0 1 0.38 GDP_2010_nomos 332,821 20,749 10,213 30,860 5,348.99 Source: BoG

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Descriptive statistics of the variables used in the hedonic mode

Descriptive statistics of the variables used in the hedonic modelsls (2/2)(2/2)

Variable name # cases Mean Min Max St.Dev

d_REG 338,354 0 1 d_level1 338,354 0.82 0 1 0.39 d_level2 338,354 0.12 0 1 0.32 d_level3 338,354 0.05 0 1 0.21 view 338,354 0.02 0 1 0.13 d_Y 338,354 0 1 d_Q 338,354 0 1 d_BANK 338,354 0 1 Infra 24,627 3.84 2 5 0.80 BuiltEnv 24,627 3.50 3 5 0.65 SD_median 24,627 1.00 0 2 0.34 Density 24,627 7.29 0 15 3.89 NaturalEnv 24,627 2.86 2 5 0.86 Uses 24,627 3.20 1 5 0.87 Source: BoG

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Descriptive statistics of main variables used in the hedonic mod

Descriptive statistics of main variables used in the hedonic modelsels for for the 25 big cities of Greece

the 25 big cities of Greece

Source: BoG

Cities TM  TOTAL 

SPACE AREA AGE mezonetta FLOOR d_store d_park

Athens 86.2 15.8 0.05 1.67 0.21 0.13 Thessaloniki 81.4 23.9 0.04 2.17 0.10 0.03 Patra 95.0 13.5 0.05 1.26 0.12 0.04 Larissa 106.0 10.5 0.05 1.62 0.18 0.10 Heraklion 101.5 12.8 0.06 0.99 0.18 0.06 Volos 97.2 14.1 0.07 1.36 0.14 0.06 Ioannina 100.0 11.3 0.11 1.03 0.17 0.06 Trikala 110.4 14.2 0.04 1.29 0.11 0.06 Chalkida 102.8 10.6 0.07 1.36 0.17 0.07 Serres 101.4 14.7 0.04 1.74 0.14 0.05 Alexandroupoli 92.3 11.6 0.06 1.46 0.24 0.04 Xanthi 98.0 10.4 0.03 1.60 0.20 0.03 Katerini 109.0 15.0 0.05 1.17 0.13 0.05 Kalamata 94.0 13.3 0.05 1.42 0.14 0.05 Kavala 98.3 15.7 0.08 1.42 0.12 0.03 Chania 110.0 11.4 0.09 0.90 0.16 0.06 Lamia 96.4 13.8 0.04 1.18 0.17 0.05 Komotini 92.1 12.9 0.03 1.72 0.18 0.03 Rodos 100.3 14.2 0.09 0.62 0.12 0.04 Agrinio 104.5 14.9 0.03 1.78 0.15 0.06 Drama 110.3 14.7 0.05 1.35 0.20 0.04 Veria 102.8 15.2 0.03 1.41 0.15 0.09 Kozani 98.9 12.5 0.03 1.47 0.16 0.06 Karditsa 108.1 13.1 0.02 1.49 0.11 0.06 Rethimno 99.1 10.9 0.05 0.81 0.18 0.06 Total 90.5 15.2 0.05 1.57 0.19 0.10

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Hedonic model summary results: beta

Hedonic model summary results: beta--coefficientscoefficients

Explanatory variables Greece Athens Athens North Thessaloniki

(Constant) 10.390 10.916 10.687 10.519 TM TOTAL SPACE 0.016 0.017 0.016 0.020 TM_SQ -0.000 -0.000 -0.000 -0.000 AGE -0.016 -0.018 -0.018 -0.014 AGE_SQ 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 mezonetta 0.045 -0.012 -0.026 -0.128 FLOOR 0.035 0.035 0.028 0.044 AUXIL -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.004 quality 0.104 0.093 0.061 0.171 view 0.049 0.042 0.012 0.112 depreciated -0.136 -0.149 -0.116 -0.178 d_store 0.103 0.090 0.074 0.080 d_park 0.057 0.060 0.052 0.068 access 0.043 Airport 0.002 d_level1 0.042 d_level2 -0.057 D_Y2013 -0.303 -0.338 -0.265 -0.388 seaside_new 0.094 Density -0.009 GDP_2010_nomos1 0.016 BuiltEnv 0.117 Infra 0.022 NaturalEnv 0.015 SD_median -0.083 Uses 0.029 Source: BoG

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Question: Which are the factors affecting residential property

Question: Which are the factors affecting residential property

values?

values?

Property technical characteristics

Property technical characteristics

ƒ Total space area: +1.6%, declining

ƒ Age: -1.6%, stable

ƒ Property type: mezonetta +4.5%

ƒ Floor level: +3.5%

ƒ Construction quality: +10.4%

ƒ View: +4.9%

ƒ Storage area: +10.3%

ƒ Parking spaces: +5.7%

Determinants of the residential values

Determinants of the residential values (1/3)(1/3)

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Determinants of the residential values

Determinants of the residential values (2/3)(2/3)

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Location (city/town level)

Location (city/town level) –– Case study for Northern greater Case study for Northern greater Athens Area Athens Area ƒ Infrastructure: +2.2% ƒ Built environment: +11.7% ƒ Building Factor: -8.3% ƒ Population Density: -0.9% ƒ Natural environment: +1.5% ƒ Compatibility of uses: +2.9%

Determinants of the residential values

Determinants of the residential values (3/3)(3/3)

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Residential property price changes during the crisis (hedonic re

Residential property price changes during the crisis (hedonic results)sults) GREECE: GREECE: --30.3%30.3% Cities # cases Median  value      (€) Median  Value  (€/sq.m) Price changes  (hedonic est.) 

during the crisis

Estimated  hedonic  value (€) Actual     vs   estimated  value Athens 151,208 165,000 1,865 -32.2% 157,938 4.5% Thessaloniki 12,933 125,000 1,580 -38.8% 116,134 7.6% Patra 8,260 115,879 1,400 -22.4% 104,977 10.4% Larissa 5,345 128,103 1,319 -28.2% 117,315 9.2% Heraklion 4,138 160,000 1,727 -21.9% 144,641 10.6% Volos 4,447 120,000 1,364 -21.9% 123,556 -2.9% Ioannina 4,624 146,000 1,568 -19.3% 131,008 11.4% Trikala 2,119 122,000 1,201 -33.3% 110,724 10.2% Chalkida 2,895 143,500 1,595 -35.4% 131,819 8.9% Serres 1,978 100,000 1,094 -21.9% 93,554 6.9% Alexandroupoli 2,730 122,000 1,400 -16.8% 115,924 5.2% Xanthi 2,372 108,000 1,199 -15.1% 112,710 -4.2% Katerini 3,214 118,365 1,192 -36.5% 116,047 2.0% Kalamata 2,048 130,000 1,503 -31.3% 119,905 8.4% Kavala 1,737 130,400 1,402 -34.4% 118,148 10.4% Chania 3,323 165,000 1,688 -21.6% 160,710 2.7% Lamia 2,781 122,380 1,358 -32.0% 116,460 5.1% Komotini 1,925 105,000 1,272 -17.5% 97,434 7.8% Rodos 4,210 160,000 1,697 -26.8% 143,916 11.2% Agrinio 2,727 107,000 1,100 -20.0% 117,525 -9.0% Drama 1,365 101,058 1,000 -24.0% 108,493 -6.9% Veria 1,941 113,000 1,144 -18.9% 102,323 10.4% Kozani 2,192 110,000 1,208 -21.3% 105,639 4.1% Karditsa 1,905 105,000 1,051 -24.1% 117,153 -10.4% Rethimno 2,069 160,000 1,818 -26.9% 144,589 10.7% Source: BoG

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Recent reforms, risks and pending issues

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

9 Very optimistic initial target 9 Continuous reviews of targets

9 Significant implementation obstacles throughout the process

Privatization program

Privatization program

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

9 Excessive tax burden and unstable tax-framework

9 Postponing of the introduction of the single property tax

Property taxation

Property taxation

Source: Calculations based on the OECD Housing Market questionnaire Transaction costs refer to average costs

* Taxes on immovable property as% of GDP refer to 2010 data

** Un-weighted average for the EU countries and the OECD data available

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 BE L FRA GR C ITA ESP CZE PRT* LUX HU N FIN AUT DE U PO L* NLD* IRL* SW E SVN SVK EST GB R DN K ΕΕ** OE CD ** T ran sact io n co st s ( as % o f p ro p e rt y val u e ) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 T axes o n im m o vab le p ro p e rt y as % o f G D P

Total Transaction Cost

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Non

Non--Performing loansPerforming loans

Source: BoG

9 Re-capitalization of commercial banks

9 Financial stress and high rate of non-performing loans

29.3 3.6 3.4 3.6 5.3 7.4 24.5 6.3 5.4 4.5 5.0 7.7 16 10.4 24.0 21.4 14.9 10.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q2 N on-pe rf or mi ng l o an r ati o (%) Total loans Housing loans

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Conclusions: Recent developments and prospects in the real

Conclusions: Recent developments and prospects in the real

estate market

estate market

9 Negative short-term expectations remain (economic, employment, taxation, etc.) despite the recent improvement in business expectations

9 Rent prices decline and renegotiations of lease contracts

9 Cautiousness in developing new investment projects and general shift to more affordable commercial properties

9 Expectations of further small adjustment in prices

9 Important pending issues:

¾ prohibition of auctions for primary residence

¾ prohibition of commercial lease contracts

¾ urban planning regulations? land uses? etc

¾ uncertainty about the real estate tax regime (e.g. adjustment of objective values, etc)

9 The recovery of the property market is linked directly to:

¾ improving the expectations

¾ reducing the prevailing uncertainty

¾ reducing the tax burden and establishing a constant real estate taxation system

¾ financing the market by the banking system

¾ the overall prospects for dealing with the problems of the Greek economy (fiscal, structural, etc.)

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BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM

Visit our website in

Visit our website in Real Estate Market Analysis SectionReal Estate Market Analysis Section

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Thank you!

Thank you!

For any further information please do not hesitate to contact us:

Economic Research Department Real Estate Market Analysis Section Tel: + 30 210 320 2376, 3837, 2372, 2436 Fax: + 30 210 320 2660

Email: [email protected]

URL address:

http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/en/Statistics/realestate/default.aspx Bank of Greece: 21, E.Venizelos Avenue, GR-102 50 Athens, Greece

References

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