International Workshop on Glass for Harvesting, Storage & Efficient Usage of Solar Energy
Needs and Opportunities for Glass in the US DOE Solar
Technology Program
November 17, 2008
John Lushetsky, Program Manager
US Department of Energy
Solar Energy Technology Program
http://www.eere.energy.gov/solarEmail: [email protected]
Agenda
US Solar Program Overview
Solar Glass Requirements
Market Dynamics
Agenda
US Solar Program Overview
Solar Glass Requirements
Market Dynamics
The mission of DOE’s Solar Program is to
Accelerate
the wide-spread adoption of solar electric
technologies across the United States
Market Transformation
Grid Integration
Market Transformation
Grid Integration
Photovoltaics (PV)
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)
Distributed Generation on-site or near point of use
Centralized Generation large users or utilities
DOE
SETP
DOE
DOE
SETP
SETP
Funding for the SETP has been increased in response
the Solar America Initiative
0 50 100 150 200 250
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09*
Bu d g et ($ M )
Concentrating Solar Power Photovoltaic Energy Systems
Solar Energy Technologies Funding, FY01 – FY09*
*President’s request for FY09 was $150M, current House mark is $220M, current Senate mark is $229M.
Solar America Initiative Announced by President
The SETP has slightly increased funding to industry in
response to the Solar America Initiative
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09*
National Labs Industry
Solar Energy Technologies Funding, FY01 – FY09*
NREL and SNL provide a strong base for solar
development partnerships with industry
Over 200 scientists and engineers with deep
understanding of all solar technologies
Areas of expertise
Crystalline silicon and thin-film PV
Flat-plate and concentrator PV
Process development and engineering
System development and testing
Measurement and characterization
Reliability engineering
Next-generation PV technologies
CSP components and testing
Grid integration and power electronics
Collaboration Types
Cooperative R&D Agreements (CRADA)
Work-for-Others
Technical Service Agreements
Technology Licensing
SETP is structured to work along the whole RDD&D
pipeline
SETP is sponsoring a number of industry led efforts to
accelerate the development of solar technologies
DOE’s industry R&D programs include diverse
technologies for potentially diverse PV markets
•
Second round of PV incubators announced September 26
th, 2008
•
Currently conducting stage gate reviews for TPP projects
11
DOE’s Next Generation PV seeds the beginning of the
FY2008 PV funding across all programs and including
national labs
Point Focus
•
Improve engine reliability and system manufacturability, and
develop next-generation dish system designs. Test new tower
receiver panel.
Line Focus
•
Optimize receiver and concentrator designs for higher temps,
increase component suppliers, and create advanced evaluation
capabilities.
Storage
•
Develop advanced heat transfer fluids for more efficient
operation at high temperatures, and test innovative
designs for low-cost storage using sensible and latent heat
options .
R&D is targeting technical obstacles in CSP systems to
improve performance and reduce costs
•
First Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA 1) is in stage gate review
•
FOA 2 awardees were announced September 2008
•
Third CSP FOA anticipated for March 2009
CSP Technology Projects Storage R&D Projects Storage Demo Projects
DOE funds CSP Industry R&D to reduce system costs
Agenda
US Solar Program Overview
Solar Glass Requirements
Market Dynamics
Glass needs for Photovoltaics
Increased strength to weight (thickness) to permit larger thin film
module size
Applied Materials Gen 8 thin film silicon modules
Improved TCO’s
Improve device efficiency by minimizing optical and electrical loss
Improve device stability
Control interfacial properties
Have improved surface properties, processibility, work function etc.
Be enabling for 3rd generation approaches
Textured glass needed for improved light capture
Thin wafered silicon and single crystal thin film silicon
Anti-soiling and hardness coatings
Use of TCO in Photovoltaics
DOE is funding $1M cross-cutting research for TCO’s for different PV
technologies through NREL
TC Material Specific PV Technology Areas (Roadmaps)
WSi FSi CPV CdTe CIGS OPV
In-Zn-O X X X X Zn-O:Ga/ZnO X X X X X X Zn-Sn-O X X Cu-Zn-O X X X In-Sn-O X X X X In-Ti-O X X X
c-Si p-type TEXTURED
ITO
Intrinsic a-Si:H FRONT METAL GRID
FULL AREA METAL BACK CONTACT
ITO
p-type a-Si:H
n
n--type type aa--Si:HSi:H
c-Si p-type TEXTURED
ITO
Intrinsic a-Si:H FRONT METAL GRID
FULL AREA METAL BACK CONTACT
ITO
p-type a-Si:H
n
n--type type aa--Si:HSi:H
OPV
Dye
CIGS
HIT/TF Si
Glass requirements for CSP
Mirrors
Anti-soiling and hardness coatings
Will become critical in desert environments
High reliability integrated construction
Heat Collection Elements (HCE’s)
Anti-reflection and low emissivity
coatings
PV Supply Chain and Cross-Cutting Technologies
Transfer and optimize technologies specifically for the PV industry
Attract new entrants as neutral vendors
Target domestic leadership in value chain segments
Mitigate risk across currently funded technologies
Accelerate new products by developing “enabling” technologies
Module Components
Flexible barrier or protective coatings
Transparent conductors Contacts (high aspect ratio, printed, non-silver)
Manufacturing
CPV alignment
Material flux measurement Fast optical characterization
Non-Module Components
Inverter components Trackers
Streamlined balance of system solutions
TOPIC AREAS
Impact Factor = ($/W savings) X (project future sales volume)
Value = Impact ($) / DOE funding
Uniqueness - containing sufficient risk to necessitate DOE funding
Feasibility – likelihood of success
Potential Supply Chain Issues for the Glass Industry
Flat glass available capacity
Current projections are for solar to be <5% of total glass capacity
through 2015
Supply chain issues will be determined on “available” capacity
Single float glass plant (850 MTD) could produce >5 GW
equivalent per year at a capital cost of $100M
Potential for bottlenecks
Raw materials
Low Iron Silica Refining
Only two plants in the US produce low iron silica
Limit to potentially 1 GW of capacity
Agenda
US Solar Program Overview
Solar Glass Requirements
Market Dynamics
22
Global PV market projections
Global PV Market Projections
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Gl
ob
al
MW
P
V
Photon (2008) MarketDeutsche (2008) Baseline Supply Goldman Sachs (2008) Supply Simmons & Company (2008) Supply Navigant Accelerated (2008) Market Simmons & Company (2008) Demand Goldman Sachs (2008) Demand JP Morgan (2008) Demand/upside JP Morgan (2008) Supply
Navigant Conservative (2008) Market
Source: Company Analyst Reports / FACC
Although there are large differences between industry analysts’ projections for
the global PV market, even the most conservative forecast shows over 25%
compound annual growth from 2008 to 2012
Polysilicon supply and price projections
In response to rising polysilicon prices
beginning in 2004, substantial investment
was made in expanding polysilicon
production capacity
Increased polysilicon supply in upcoming years will greatly reduce the feedstock costs for c-Si PV
PV module price projections by technology
c-Si
Lower polysilicon feedstock prices should allow c-Si PV to continue on its
historical path of price reductions
Based on historical learning curves, CdTe, a-Si and c-Si would reach the Solar America
Initiative (SAI) target of $1.25/W with cumulative production of 0.7 GW, 1.8 GW and 100 GW, respectively
Federal ITC Extension
On October 3, President Bush signed into law an extension of the 30%
solar investment tax credit (ITC)
Key Points
Term - 8 years
Provides critical extension needed for concentrating solar power (CSP) projects
No cap on residential installations
Removes previous $2,000 limit on residential solar projects
No utility exclusion
Expands significant market for PV and CSP
According to Navigant Consulting, passage of the ITC will result in
440,000 new jobs
As much as 5.4 GW of previously announced utility-scale solar power
projects are now expected to move forward
26 states and D.C. now have mandatory RPS policies,
and 6 states have set non-binding RPS targets
Source: R. Wiser, LBNL (2008), DSIRE
Florida recently passed legislation requiring RPS targets to be set next year
27
Current solar/DG set-asides and multipliers
13 states and D.C. now have solar/DG set-asides, with 2 more states
providing multipliers for DG (WA) and all non-wind (TX)
There is momentum for solar/DG set-asides; of the 13 states with such policies, 7 states enacted their policies in 2007-2008 (DE, MA, MD, NH, NM, NC and OH)
Required solar capacity additions to meet mandated
solar/DG set-asides
Based on the 12 states and D.C. with defined solar/DG set-asides (MA is TBD),
approximately 2,500 MW of cumulative installations is needed by 2015 and
7,500 MW by 2025
If California is included, an extra 3,000 MW of cumulative installations will be added by 2017 based on the goals of the California Solar Initiative
29
California Solar Initiative (CSI)
Signed into law in August 2006, CSI provides up to $3.35 billion in incentives
through 2016 with the goal of 3 GW installed capacity by 2017
$2.167 billion for all systems except new homes in the IOU territories (Pacific Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas & Electric)
$400 million for new homes in the IOU territories
$784 million for all systems outside of the IOU territories
Systems over 50kW receive a performance based incentive (PBI), a bonus for each
kWh produced over five years
PBI starts at $0.39/kWh and declines to $0.03/kWh as statewide solar capacity increases; depends on IOU territory and type (residential or non-residential)
Systems under 50kW can receive a PBI or elect to take the expected performance
based buydown (EPBB), a rebate adjusted to the expected system performance
EPBB starts at $2.50/Wac and declines to $0.20/Wac as statewide solar capacity increases; depends on IOU territory and type (residential or non-residential)Statewide
MW in Step Government/ Government/ Non-Profit Non-Profit 1 50 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
2 70 $2.50 $2.50 $3.25 $0.39 $0.39 $0.50 3 100 $2.20 $2.20 $2.95 $0.34 $0.34 $0.46 4 130 $1.90 $1.90 $2.65 $0.26 $0.26 $0.37 5 160 $1.55 $1.55 $2.30 $0.22 $0.22 $0.32 6 190 $1.10 $1.10 $1.85 $0.15 $0.15 $0.26 7 215 $0.65 $0.65 $1.40 $0.09 $0.09 $0.19 8 250 $0.35 $0.35 $1.10 $0.05 $0.05 $0.15 9 285 $0.25 $0.25 $0.90 $0.03 $0.03 $0.12 10 350 $0.20 $0.20 $0.70 $0.03 $0.03 $0.10
EPBB Payments (per Watt) PBI Payments (per kWh) Step Residential
Non-Residential
Residential
Non-Residential Commercial Commercial
Current PBI and
EPBB offered
(varies by IOU
territory)
New Jersey - Consumer On-site Renewable Energy
(CORE) and Solar Renewable Energy Credit (SREC)
New Jersey’s CORE program offered rebates for solar systems
Between May 2001 and August 2007, New Jersey paid an average of $4.30/W in rebates for 40MW of installed capacity; a total cost of over $170 million
The state had not anticipated such a high level of interest, and by early 2007, rebate applications exhausted the program’s funding through 2008
In December 2007, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (BPU) decided to freeze CORE in April 2008
New Jersey is transitioning to the solar renewable energy credit (SREC) program,
began as a pilot program in April 2007
Provides a tariff for solar based on the market value of SRECs, which are used to meet compliance with New Jersey’s solar set-asides
SRECs have been trading at an average value of over $200/MWh during the past year
The SREC program will improve as a solar incentive if the state’s Solar Alternative Compliance Payments (SACPs) are increased from $300/MWh to $700/MWh in 2009, as was proposed by the BPU
31
Property Tax Exemptions
28 states and Puerto Rico and now provide solar installations with
property tax exemptions or give local authorities the option to do so
11 of these states (marked with a ) have enacted or expanded their property tax exemptions for solar installations since 2003
The DOE funds the DSIRE database to make information on property tax exemptions more transparent to potential users
D.C.
State gives localities the option to offer an exemption State has property tax exemption or special assessment
State has property tax exemption/assessment and local option
Puerto Rico
VT RI CT MD
32
D.C.
Puerto Rico
State has a Sales Tax Exemption State has Local Option for Sales Tax Exemption
Sales Tax Exemptions
19 states and Puerto Rico and now provide solar energy with sales tax
exemptions or give local authorities the option to do so
12 of these states (marked with a ) have enacted or expanded their sales tax exemptions for solar energy since 2003
The DOE funds the DSIRE database to make information on sales tax exemptions more transparent to potential users
RI CT
33
Net Metering
44 states and D.C. now allow for net metering, whether state-wide, for
certain types of utilities or offered voluntarily by individual utilities
Other significant differences in net metering policies include caps on total enrollment or system size, valuation of excess generation and whether third-party owners (solar PPA providers) may net meter
The DOE partners with the Interstate Renewable Energy Council (IREC) to provide assistance to state policymakers on best practices for net metering and lessons learned from other states
Source: DSIRE
While short-term over-supply may exist, U.S., demand is highly
elastic and could take up any drop in system prices
40% of U.S. electricity or 1,000 TWh sold for > $0.10/kWh in 2006
Assumptions:
1kw installed produces 1500 kWh/year
Federal incentives (30% ITC & MACRS)
5% interest rate 25 year term 35% tax rate
15.5% capacity factor (US average)
92% AC/DC conversion 80% BOS derate factor
Agenda
US Solar Program Overview
Solar Glass Requirements
Market Dynamics
Potential follow-on Federal solar incentives
Investment Tax Credits
Refundable (back and forward)
Transferable
Use on tax-exempt property
Boost for US manufactured equipment
“Green” Revolving Fund/Infrastructure Bank
Expansion of current Loan Guarantee Program
Economic Stimulus (H.R. 7110)
Increased R&D Funding
Green Schools
Grid modernization
Removal of current 10-year limit on Federal PPA’s
National interconnection and net metering standards
National Renewable Portfolio Standard
The goal of the SAI is to reduce solar electricity to grid
parity by 2015
For more information
DOE Solar Program:
http://www.eere.energy.gov/solar/solar_america/
PV Value Clearinghouse:
www.nrel.gov/analysis/pvclearinghouse/
SNL PV Systems R&D:
www.sandia.gov/pv
NREL Solar Research:
www.nrel.gov/solar
To sign up for our Newsletter and Market Analysis or for
any questions on this presentation, email
[email protected]
John M. Lushetsky
Program Manager
Solar Energy Technologies Program
[email protected]
The DOE Loan Guarantee Program can provide critical capital
for scale-up of PV technologies
Loan guarantees for projects that:
Avoid, reduce or sequester anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases or air pollutants Employ new or significantly improved technologies
Can be deployed commercially
Provide a reasonable prospect for repayment
Are sited in the U.S. or its territories, but may have foreign investors or project sponsors
FY2008
Loan Guarantee Authority $38.5 billion (Expires by end of FY2009) Applications due by February 28, 2009
Breakdown
$10.0 billion for energy efficiency, renewable energy and advanced transmission and distribution technologies $18.5 billion for advanced nuclear power facilities
$2.0 billion for “front end” nuclear fuel cycle facilities
$6.0 billion for coal based power generation, industrial gasification and carbon capture and sequestration
DOE’s FOA terms give participating companies proprietary rights to
practice IP developed under these awards
Patent Rights
Small, domestic businesses and nonprofits take title to subject inventions under
the Bayh-Dole Act, (35 USC 200), subject to Gov't retained rights:
U.S. Manufacturing Preference March-in rights
If recipient is not expected to achieve practical application of the subject invention;
If necessary to alleviate health or safety needs which are not reasonably satisfied by the Recipient, assignee, or their licensees;
If action is necessary to meet requirements for public use;
If recipient is in breach of U.S. manufacturing preference requirements.
Government-Purpose License
Gov't takes title when awardee is a large business or foreign entity under 48 USC
5908
Waivers may be granted under 10 CFR 784
U.S. Manufacturing Preference, March-In Rights and Government-Purpose License same as for small businesses
