• No results found

Multi-objective planning model for integration of distributed generations in deregulated power systems

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2020

Share "Multi-objective planning model for integration of distributed generations in deregulated power systems"

Copied!
18
0
0

Loading.... (view fulltext now)

Full text

(1)

3ULQWHGLQ7KH,VODPLF5HSXEOLFRI,UDQ ‹ 6KLUD]8QLYHUVLW\

08/7,2%-(&7,9(3/$11,1*02'(/)25,17(*5$7,212)',675,%87('

*(1(5$7,216,1'(5(*8/$7('32:(56<67(06

$562528',$1'0(+6$1

'HSWRI(OHFWULFDO(QJ6KDULI8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\$]DGL$YH32%R[7HKUDQ,5RI,UDQ (PDLOHKVDQ#VKDULIHGX

$EVWUDFW± 7KLV SDSHU SUHVHQWV D ORQJWHUP G\QDPLF PXOWLREMHFWLYH PRGHO IRU GLVWULEXWHG JHQHUDWLRQLQYHVWPHQW7KHSURSRVHGPRGHORSWLPL]HVWKUHHREMHFWLYHVQDPHO\DFWLYHORVVHVFRVWV DQGHQYLURQPHQWDOHPLVVLRQVDQGGHWHUPLQHVWKHRSWLPDOVFKHPHVRIVL]LQJVLWWLQJRI'*XQLWV DQGVSHFLDOO\WKHG\QDPLFVRILQYHVWPHQWRYHUWKHSODQQLQJSHULRG7KH3DUHWRRSWLPDOVROXWLRQVRI WKHSUREOHPDUHIRXQGXVLQJD*$DOJRULWKPDQGILQDOO\DIX]]\VDWLVI\LQJPHWKRGLVDSSOLHGWR VHOHFWWKHRSWLPDOVROXWLRQFRQVLGHULQJWKHGHVLUHVRIWKHSODQQHU7KHVROXWLRQVRI3DUHWRRSWLPDO IURQW DUH DQDO\]HG WR H[WUDFW JHQHUDO XVHIXO LQIRUPDWLRQ IRU SODQQHUV DERXW WKH DSSURSULDWH '* WHFKQRORJLHVDQGSODFHPHQWVFKHPHV7KHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIWKHSURSRVHGPRGHOLVGHPRQVWUDWHGE\ DSSO\LQJLWRQDWHVWGLVWULEXWLRQV\VWHPDQGWKHUHVXOWVDUHSUHVHQWHGGLVFXVVHGDQGFRPSDUHGWR RWKHUPHWKRGV

.H\ZRUGV±'LVWULEXWHGJHQHUDWLRQJHQHWLFDOJRULWKPG\QDPLFSODQQLQJPXOWLREMHFWLYHRSWLPL]DWLRQDFWLYHORVV UHGXFWLRQ

,1752'8&7,21

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±>@$QRWKHULPSRUWDQWIDFWRUZKLFKKDVEHFRPHPRUHLPSRUWDQWLQWKHOLEHUDOL]HGHOHFWULFLW\ LQGXVWU\LVWKHTXDOLW\RIWKHVHUYLFHZKLFK',6&2SURYLGHVWRLWVFXVWRPHUVOLNHYROWDJHFRQWURO>@RU UHOLDELOLW\>@:LWKWKHLQFUHDVLQJGHPDQGDQGSRWHQWLDOFRQJHVWLRQSUREOHPVLWLVQHFHVVDU\WRXSJUDGH WKHGLVWULEXWLRQQHWZRUNIDFLOLWLHVWRPHHWWKHFXUUHQWDQGIXWXUHQHHGV$Q\GHIHUUDOWRWKHVHXQDYRLGDEOH

(2)

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

7KHUHSRUWHGPRGHOVIRU'*SODQQLQJFDQEHGLYLGHGLQWRWZRPDMRUFDWHJRULHVVWDWLFDQGG\QDPLF PRGHOV,QVWDWLFPRGHOVLQYHVWPHQWGHFLVLRQVDUHLPSOHPHQWHGLQWKHILUVW\HDURIWKHSODQQLQJKRUL]RQ >@±>@>@>@±>@,QWKLVFDWHJRU\WKHPRGHOVDUHVLQJOHRUPXOWLREMHFWLYHV7KHVLQJOHREMHFWLYH PRGHOV DUH HLWKHU RULJLQDOO\ VLQJOHREMHFWLYH >@>@ >@±>@ >@ RU PXOWLREMHFWLYH ZKLFK DUH FRQYHUWHGLQWRDVLQJOHREMHFWLYHXVLQJDEHQHILWWRFRVWUDWLRLQGH[>@RUDQDGGLWLYHXWLOLW\IXQFWLRQ>@ >@>@>@PXOWLREMHFWLYHPRGHOVRIWKLVFDWHJRU\DUHVROYHGXVLQJ3DUHWRRSWLPDOLW\FRQFHSW>@ >@

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

35,1&,3/(62)08/7,2%-(&7,9(237,0,=$7,21

,QPRVWUHDOLVWLFRSWLPL]DWLRQSUREOHPVSDUWLFXODUO\WKRVHDSSOLFDEOHLQSRZHUV\VWHPVWKHUHH[LVWVPRUH WKDQRQHREMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQZKLFKVKRXOGEHRSWLPL]HGVLPXOWDQHRXVO\*HQHUDOO\HYHU\PXOWLREMHFWLYH RSWLPL]DWLRQSUREOHPFRQVLVWVRIDQXPEHURIREMHFWLYHVDQGVHYHUDOHTXDOLW\DQGLQHTXDOLW\FRQVWUDLQWV ZKLFKFDQEHIRUPXODWHGDVIROORZV

> @

^

`

> @

R

1

Q

* [ + [

0LQ ) [

I [

I

[

6XEMHFW WR

; [

[

d

7KHQRWLRQRIRSWLPXPKDVEHHQUHGHILQHGLQWKLVFRQWH[WDQGLQVWHDGRIDLPLQJWRILQGDVLQJOHVROXWLRQ ZHDWWHPSWWRSURGXFHDVHWRIJRRGFRPSURPLVHVRUWUDGHRIIVIURPZKLFKWKHGHFLVLRQPDNHUZLOOVHOHFW RQH7KHVHWRIDOORSWLPDOVROXWLRQVZKLFKDUHQRQGRPLQDWHGE\DQ\RWKHUVROXWLRQLVNQRZQDV3DUHWR RSWLPDOVHW(DFKVROXWLRQLQ3DUHWRRSWLPDOVHWKDVWZREDVLFFKDUDFWHULVWLFV)RUHYHU\WZRVROXWLRQV EHORQJLQJWRWKHVDPH3DUHWRIURQWKROGV

_

Q L Q M

L M

M Q

L

I [

I [

[ [

6

!



(3)

RSWLPDOIURQWZKLFKLVWKHEHVWDPRQJDOOPHPEHUVRIWKLVVHWFRQVLGHULQJDOOREMHFWLYHV)RUHYHU\ VROXWLRQEHORQJLQJWRDQXSSHU3DUHWRIURQWDQGWKHRQHVLQWKHORZHUIURQWVKROGV

^ 2` N N

N 1 I [ I [

 d

^ `

2 N N

N 1 I [ I [

[ 6 [ 6

6 6

c c

c



 

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

29(59,(:2)*(1(7,&$/*25,7+0

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

D6HOHFWLRQ

7KHEHWWHULQGLYLGXDOVDUHPRUHSUHIHUUHGVRWKH\DUHDOORZHGWRSDVVRQWKHLUFKDUDFWHULVWLFVWRWKH QH[WJHQHUDWLRQ,WPXVWEHQRWHGWKDWWKHFULWHULDWRGLVWLQJXLVKEHWZHHQVWURQJDQGZHDNJHQHUDWLRQVLV WKHLUSHUIRUPDQFH

E&URVVRYHU

7ZR LQGLYLGXDOV DUH FKRVHQ IURP WKH SRSXODWLRQ XVLQJ WKH VHOHFWLRQ RSHUDWRU $ QXPEHU RI ELWV JHQHV DUH UDQGRPO\ FKRVHQ IURP HDFK SDUHQW 7KH YDOXHV RI WKH VHOHFWHG ELWV DUH H[FKDQJHG 7ZR QHZERUQFKLOGUHQZLOOHQWHUWRWKHQH[WJHQHUDWLRQRIWKHSRSXODWLRQ

F0XWDWLRQ

(4)

352%/(0)2508/$7,21

'LVWULEXWHGJHQHUDWLRQSODQQLQJFRQVLVWVRIYDULRXVOLQHDUDQGQRQOLQHDUVXESUREOHPV7KHPDLQSUREOHP LVSURSRVLQJDSODQZKLFKPDLQWDLQVWKHWHFKQLFDOFRQVWUDLQWVDQGPLQLPL]HVWKHWRWDODVVRFLDWHGFRVWV HPLVVLRQVDQGDFWLYHORVVHVZLWKVXFKDSODQ7KH',6&2DVWKHSODQQHUKDVWZRDOWHUQDWLYHVWRVXSSO\LWV FXVWRPHUVWKHILUVWRQHLVSXUFKDVLQJHQHUJ\IURPWKHPDLQJULGDQGWKHVHFRQGRSWLRQLVXVLQJ'*LQLWV WHUULWRU\RUDQRSWLPXPFRPELQDWLRQRIWKHP7KHDLPRIWKHGLVWULEXWLRQV\VWHPSODQQHULVWRVHHNWKH EHVWFRQILJXUDWLRQDPRQJ VRPHDYDLODEOH'*FDWHJRULHVDQGSODFHWKHPRQVXLWDEOHEXVHVFRQVLGHULQJ YDULRXVIDFWRUVVXFKDVDFWLYHSRZHUORVVHVLQYHVWPHQWDQGRSHUDWLRQFRVWVDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOHPLVVLRQV 7KHIROORZLQJDVVXPSWLRQVDUHHPSOR\HGLQSUREOHPIRUPXODWLRQ

D'HFLVLRQYDULDEOHV

7KHPXOWLREMHFWLYH'*SODQQLQJSUREOHPLVIRUPXODWHGLQWKLVVHFWLRQ7KHGHFLVLRQYDULDEOHLVWKH QXPEHURI'*XQLWVIURPHDFKVSHFLILFWHFKQRORJ\WREHLQVWDOOHGLQHDFKEXVLQHDFK\HDULH[L WGJ DQG

WKHJHQHUDWLRQVFKHGXOHRILQVWDOOHG'*VGXULQJGLIIHUHQWORDGOHYHOV

E&RQVWUDLQWV

0RGHOLQJWKH'*FRQQHFWLRQ&RQQHFWLRQRID'*XQLWWRDEXVLVPRGHOHGDVDQHJDWLYH34ORDGDV VKRZQLQ)LJ

)LJ0RGHORIWKH'*XQLWFRQQHFWHGWRWKHLWKEXV

'HPDQGOHYHOIDFWRUVDQGWKHLUGXUDWLRQV)RUJHWWLQJFORVHUWRUHDOLW\LWLVDVVXPHGWKDWHDFKGD\FDQ EHGLYLGHGLQWRGLIIHUHQWGHPDQGOHYHOV:LWKRXWORVVRIJHQHUDOLW\LQWKLVSDSHUWKUHHGLIIHUHQWGHPDQG OHYHOVQDPHO\/RZ0HGLXPDQG+LJKKDYHEHHQFRQVLGHUHGZKLFKKDYHGLIIHUHQWGHPDQGOHYHOIDFWRUV LH

'/)

GO 7KHGXUDWLRQRIHDFKORDGOHYHOZLOOEHHTXDOWR

'8

GO 7KHYDULDWLRQRIGHPDQGOHYHOIDFWRULQ
(5)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 0.5

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1

Hours

Demand Level Factor ratio of Peak Load

)LJ'HPDQGOHYHOIDFWRUVLQKRXUV

'HPDQGJURZWK7KHGHPDQGRIDV\VWHPLVQRWFRQVWDQWGXULQJWKHSODQQLQJKRUL]RQDQGLWLQFUHDVHV ZLWKDUDWHFDOOHG\HDUO\GHPDQGJURZWKLH 7KHGHPDQGDWHDFKEXVLQHDFKORDGOHYHODQGHDFK\HDU FDQEHFDOFXODWHGXVLQJ

' ' W

L W GO L EDVH GO

' ' W

L W GO L EDVH GO

3 3 '/)

4 4 '/)

D D

u u

u u

9DULDWLRQV RI HQHUJ\ SULFH 2EYLRXVO\ WKH SULFH RI SXUFKDVHG HQHUJ\ IURP D JULG LV FRPSHWLWLYHO\ GHWHUPLQHGDQGLVQRWFRQVWDQWGXULQJGLIIHUHQWORDGOHYHOV)RUHFDVWLQJWKHYDULDWLRQRIWKLVSDUDPHWHU ZRXOGQRWEHDQHDV\MREEXWLWLVDVVXPHGWKDWWKHYDULDWLRQSDWWHUQRIWKLVSDUDPHWHUFDQEHPRGHOHGE\D IDFWRUQDPHGJULGSULFHOHYHOIDFWRULH

3/)

GO :LWKRXWORVVRIJHQHUDOLW\LWLVDVVXPHGWKDWDQHOHFWULFLW\

SULFHDWHDFKGHPDQGOHYHOFDQEHFDOFXODWHGDV î

3/)

GO ZKHUHWKHEDVHSULFHLH DQG

3/)

GO DUH

NQRZQ7KHYDULDWLRQRIJULGSULFHGHPDQGIDFWRULQGLIIHUHQWORDGOHYHOVGXULQJDKRXUGD\LVGHSLFWHG LQ)LJ

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 0.5

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1

Hours

Grid Price Factor: ratio of price in Peak load

)LJ3ULFHOHYHOIDFWRUVRYHUKRXUV

(6)

GJ GJ L W GO OLP

3

d

3

9ROWDJHSURILOH7KHYROWDJHPDJQLWXGHRIHDFKEXVVKRXOGEHNHSWEHWZHHQWKHVDIHRSHUDWLRQOLPLWVDV LQGLFDWHGLQ

PLQ L W GO PD[

9 d9 d9

7KHUPDOOLPLWRIIHHGHUVDQGVXEVWDWLRQ7RPDLQWDLQWKHVHFXULW\RIWKHIHHGHUVDQGWKHVXEVWDWLRQWKH IORZRIFXUUHQWHQHUJ\SDVVLQJWKURXJKWKHPVKRXOGEHNHSWEHORZWKHIHHGHUVVXEVWDWLRQFDSDFLW\OLPLWDV IROORZV PD[ PD[ W GO JULG JULG W GO , , 6 6 d d " "

3RZHU IORZ FRQVWUDLQWV %HVLGHV WKH HFRQRPLF DVVXPSWLRQV DQG FDOFXODWLRQV PDGH XS WR QRZ LW LV QHFHVVDU\ WKDW WKH WHFKQLFDO FRQVWUDLQWV DUH DOVR VDWLVILHG 7KH PRVW YLDEOH FRQVWUDLQWV DUH ZHOO NQRZQ SRZHUIORZHTXDWLRQVWKDWVKDOOEHVDWLVILHGIRUHDFKFRQILJXUDWLRQDQGORDGOHYHODVLQGLFDWHGLQ

FRV

W

QHW ' GJ GJ L W GO L W GO L W L W GO

W W

QHW ' GJ GJ L W GO L W GO L W L W GO

W Q QHW

L W GO L W GO LM M W GO L W GO M W GO LM M

QHW

L W GO L W GO LM M W GO L W GO M W GO

3 3 3

4 4 4

3 9 < 9

4

9

< 9

VLQ

[

[

G G T

G

G

T

c c c c u u

¦

¦

¦

Q LM M

¦

&2EMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQV 7KHSURSRVHGPRGHOPLQLPL]HVWKUHHREMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQVQDPHO\DFWLYHORVVHVWRWDOFRVWVDQGWRWDO HPLVVLRQVDVIROORZV

o

^

`

0LQ 2) 2) 2)

6XEMHF WR

7KHREMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQVDUHIRUPXODWHGQH[W

$FWLYH /RVVHV 'LVWULEXWLRQV\VWHPV DUH XVXDOO\ GHVLJQHG ZLWKMXVW RQH VXSSO\ VRXUFH DQGWKLV PD\ FDXVHVLJQLILFDQWDFWLYHORVVHV7KHDFWLYHORVVHVPDLQO\GHSHQGRQWKHOLQHUHVLVWDQFHDQGFXUUHQWVDQGDUH XVXDOO\ UHIHUUHG WR DV WKHUPDO ORVVHV :KLOH WKH OLQH UHVLVWDQFHV DUH IL[HG WKH FXUUHQWV DUH D FRPSOH[ IXQFWLRQRIWKHV\VWHPWRSRORJ\DQGWKHORFDWLRQRI'*XQLWVDQGV\VWHPGHPDQGOHYHO7KHWRWDODFWLYH HQHUJ\GLVVLSDWHGGXULQJWKHSODQQLQJKRUL]RQLVFDOFXODWHGDVIROORZV GO 1 7

W GO GO W GO

2) 7$/ $/ î '8

¦¦

7RWDO&RVWV7KHVHFRQGREMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQLH2) WREHPLQLPL]HGLVWKHWRWDOFRVWVZKLFKLQFOXGH

WKHFRVWRIHOHFWULFLW\SXUFKDVHGIURPWKHJULGWKHLQVWDOODWLRQFRVWVDQGWKHRSHUDWLQJFRVWVRIWKH'* XQLWV7KHFRVWRISXUFKDVLQJHOHFWULFLW\IURPWKHJULGFDQEHGHWHUPLQHGDV

(7)

GO 1 7 JULG

W GO GO GO W W GO

*& 3 '8 3/)

G

U

u u u u

¦¦

,QVWDOODWLRQFRVWVRIWKH'*XQLWVFDQEHFDOFXODWHGDV

E 1 7 GJ

L W GJ W W L

'*,&

,&

G

[

u

u

¦¦

7KHYDULDEOHFRVWVRIWKH'*XQLWVFDQEHFDOFXODWHGDV

7 1E 1GO W GJ GJ

GO GJ GJ L W W GO W

W L GO W

'*9& '8 )& 20& 3

G

[ c c

§ ·

u u¨ ¸u u

© ¹

¦¦¦

¦

7KXV2)LVGHILQHGDV

2) '*,&'*9&7*&

7RWDO(PLVVLRQV7KHWKLUGREMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQLH2)LVWKHWRWDO&2SURGXFHGE\WKH'*XQLWVDQG WKHPDLQJULG2)FDQEHIRUPXODWHGDV GO E 1 1 7 GJ GJ

GO *ULG W GO GJ L W GO

W GO L

2) '8 u§¨() u3 () u3 ·¸

© ¹

¦¦

¦

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

3RSXODWLRQ$SRSXODWLRQFRQVLVWVRIDQXPEHURIVROXWLRQVLQWKHVHDUFKVSDFH

S

3RSXODWLRQ >; ; ; ;16 @

%X

<HD

,QVWDOODWLRQ

2SHUDWLQJ6FKHGXOH

(8)

D'HWHUPLQDWLRQRI3DUHWRIURQW

$VVWDWHGEHIRUHWRGLUHFWWKHSRSXODWLRQWRZDUGWKH3DUHWRRSWLPDOIURQWWZRWKLQJVVKDOOEHQRWHG *HWWLQJFORVHUWR3DUHWRRSWLPDOIURQW

0DLQWDLQLQJWKHGLYHUVLW\DPRQJWKHVROXWLRQV

,QVLQJOHREMHFWLYHRSWLPL]DWLRQLWLVHDVLO\GRQHEHFDXVHWKHUHLVQRQHHGWRGLYHUVLI\WKHVROXWLRQVDQG DOVRMXVWRQHREMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQVKDOOEHFRQVLGHUHGIRUJXLGLQJWKHSRSXODWLRQ7RVROYHWKLVSUREOHPD SVHXGRILWQHVVYDOXHLVDVVLJQHGWRHDFKVROXWLRQDV

L L L

3VHXGR )1 *'

7KHILUVWWHUPLQJXLGHVWKHSRSXODWLRQWRZDUGWKH3DUHWRRSWLPDOIURQWVLQFHWKHVROXWLRQVWKDWDUH PHPEHUV RI ORZHU IURQWV JHW KLJKHU ILWQHVV ZKLOH WKH VHFRQG WHUP LQVXUHV WKH GLYHUVLW\ DPRQJ WKH VROXWLRQV ,W LV FDOFXODWHG DV IROORZV $ ORFDO GLYHUVLW\ IDFWRU LV GHILQHG DFFRUGLQJ WR HDFK REMHFWLYH IXQFWLRQWKHQDJOREDOGLYHUVLW\IDFWRULVLQWURGXFHG)RUHYHU\REMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQVROXWLRQVDUHVRUWHGDQG WKHGLVWDQFHEHWZHHQWKHPD[LPXPDQGPLQLPXPLVFDOFXODWHGXVLQJ

PD[ PLQ

6 6

N L 1 N L L 1 N L

0'

I [

I [

$VWKHVROXWLRQVDUHVRUWHGWKHILUVWDQGWKHODVWRQHDUHWKHLUPD[DQGPLQ7KHGLYHUVLW\RIHYHU\RWKHU VROXWLRQLVLWVDYHUDJHGLVWDQFHWRLWVQHLJKERUVDVVKRZQLQ

6

L 1

N L N L N L N L

N

2

L

N I [ I [ I [ I [0'

/'

N

1

)RUWKHILUVWDQGWKHODVWVROXWLRQORFDOGLYHUVLW\FDQEHFDOFXODWHGXVLQJ

PD[

6

6

1 L

N N L 1 N

/' /' /'

7KHJOREDOGLYHUVLW\IDFWRUIRUHDFKVROXWLRQLVFDOFXODWHGDVWKHDYHUDJHRILWVORFDOGLYHUVLWLHVDVVKRZQLQ

2

1 L N L

N 2

/'

*'

1

¦

F6WHSVRIWKHDOJRULWKP

$IWHUDQDO\]LQJWKHSUREOHPDQGVHOHFWLQJDSURSHUH[SUHVVLRQRIVROXWLRQWKHWRSRORJ\RIWKHDOJRULWKPLV DVIROORZV

*HQHUDWHDQLQLWLDOUDQGRPVROXWLRQ 6HWLWHUDWLRQ

(YDOXDWHWKHILWQHVVIRUHDFKPHPEHURIWKHSRSXODWLRQDVIROORZV&RQYHUWWKHELQDU\VROXWLRQLQWRD GHFLPDO QXPEHU (YDOXDWH HDFK LQGLYLGXDO RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ E\ SHUIRUPLQJ ORDG IORZ FDOFXODWLRQV WR FRPSXWHHQHUJ\ORVVWRWDOHPLVVLRQDQGWRWDOFRVWV

'HWHUPLQHWKH3DUHWRIURQWDQGWKHJOREDOGLYHUVLW\IDFWRUIRUHDFKVROXWLRQ &RPSXWHSVHXGRILWQHVVIRUHDFKVROXWLRQ

6RUWWKHSRSXODWLRQEDVHGRQWKHSVHXGRILWQHVVYDOXH.HHSWKHSRSXODWLRQOHQJWKOLPLWHGWR

1

6
(9)

&RQVLGHUDSUHGHILQHGWRSSHUFHQWRIWKHSRSXODWLRQDVWKHSRWHQWLDOSDUHQWVHOLWHVHWEDVHGRQWKHLU SVHXGRILWQHVV

6HOHFWWZRSDUHQWVIURPWKHHOLWHVHWEDVHGRQWKHURXOHWWHZKHHOPHWKRG 3HUIRUPFURVVRYHUDQGJHQHUDWHWZRFKLOGUHQ

0XWDWHWKHVHWZRFKLOGUHQEDVHGRQPXWDWLRQSUREDELOLW\ ,IVWLOOPRUHFKLOGUHQDUHQHHGHGJRWRLIQRWFRQWLQXH

&RPELQHWKHROGSRSXODWLRQDQGQHZSRSXODWLRQWRFUHDWHDVLQJOHSRSXODWLRQFRQWDLQLQJWKHEHVWVRI ERWK

6HWLWHUDWLRQ LWHUDWLRQ 5HWXUQWR6WHS

(QG

7KHIORZFKDUWRIWKHSURSRVHGDOJRULWKPLVGHSLFWHGLQ)LJ

(10)

)8==<6$7,6)<,1*0(7+2'

7KH QH[W VWHS DIWHU REWDLQLQJ WKH 3DUHWR IURQW LV WR VHOHFW WKH VROXWLRQ DPRQJ WKH FDQGLGDWHV $ IX]]\ VDWLVI\LQJPHWKRGKDVEHHQXVHGWRREWDLQWKHVDWLVIDFWRU\VROXWLRQIRUWKHGHFLVLRQPDNHUIURPWKH3DUHWR RSWLPDOVHW)RUHDFKVROXWLRQLQWKH3DUHWRRSWLPDOIURQWOLNH[L DPHPEHUVKLSIXQFWLRQLVGHILQHGDV

N

I

[

L

P

7KLV YDOXH VKRZV WKH OHYHO LQ ZKLFK[LEHORQJV WR WKH VHW WKDW PLQLPL]HV WKH NWK REMHFWLYH

IXQFWLRQ 7KH YDOXH RI

P

IN

[

L YDULHV EHWZHHQ ]HUR WR RQH 7KH PHPEHUVKLS YDOXH RI´´ LQGLFDWHV

LQFRPSDWLELOLW\ZLWKWKHVHWZKLOH´´PHDQVIXOOFRPSDWLELOLW\

,QRWKHUZRUGVWKHPHPEHUVKLSIXQFWLRQJLYHVDQXPHULFDOGHVFULSWLRQRIKRZWKHGHFLVLRQPDNHULV VDWLVILHG E\ ZKLFK OHYHO RI DFKLHYHPHQW RI VROXWLRQ ZLWK UHVSHFW WR D VSHFLILF REMHFWLYH IXQFWLRQ 7KH GHFLVLRQPDNHULVIXOO\VDWLVILHGZLWK[L LI

P

IN

[

L DQGGLVVDWLVILHGZKHQ

P

IN

[

L >@'LIIHUHQW

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

I L

I ; ! I 0D[

L L

0D[

IL I ;L 0LQ 0D[

; I0D[ 0LQ L I ; IL L

IL IL 0LQ

I ; IL L

P

­ ½

° °

° °

° d d °

® ¾

° °

° °

° °

¯ ¿

)LJXUHVKRZVWKHVHOHFWHGPHPEHUVKLSIXQFWLRQ

)LJ/LQHDUW\SHPHPEHUVKLSIXQFWLRQ

(11)

LWV0LQLPXPVDWLVIDFWLRQLVPD[LPXPRYHUDOOREMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQV8VLQJWKH0D[0LQIRUPXODWLRQWKH ILQDOVROXWLRQFDQEHIRXQGE\VROYLQJ

PD[ PLQ

N

2

6 N 1 I Q

L 1

P

;

6,08/$7,215(68/76

7KHSURSRVHGDOJRULWKPLVDSSOLHGWRDEXVWHVWIHHGHU>@ZLWKVOLJKWPRGLILFDWLRQVZKLFKLVVKRZQLQ )LJ,QWKHSHUIRUPHGVLPXODWLRQVLWLVDVVXPHGWKDWDOOEXVHVDUHFDQGLGDWHVIRU'*LQVWDOODWLRQDQG PRUHWKDQRQH'*FDQEHLQVWDOOHGLQDVSHFLILFEXV7KHSURSRVHGIUDPHZRUNFDQEHXVHGIRUGLIIHUHQW WHFKQRORJLHVDQGRSHUDWLRQDQGSODQQLQJSKLORVRSKLHV

)LJ6LQJOHOLQHGLDJUDPRIWKHGLVWULEXWLRQV\VWHPXQGHUVWXG\

+HUHZLWKRXWORVVRIJHQHUDOLW\WKHDVVXPSWLRQVXVHGLQWKLVZRUNDUHOLVWHG 7KHSODQQLQJKRUL]RQ7LV\HDUV

7KHGLVFRXQWUDWHGLVDVVXPHGWREH

7UDQVPLVVLRQV\VWHPOLPLWDWLRQIRUHQHUJ\GHOLYHU\LV6PD[JULG 09$

7KH GHPDQG JURZWK LQ HDFK \HDURISODQQLQJ KRUL]RQ FDQ EHGLIIHUHQW LWLVDVVXPHG WKDW LWLV VLPLODULQHDFK\HDUDQG

7KH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI GLIIHUHQW '* WHFKQRORJLHV >@ >@ XVHG LQ WKLV SDSHU DUH DYDLODEOH LQ 7DEOH

7KHGXUDWLRQRIORZPHGLXPDQGKLJKGHPDQGOHYHOLQHDFKGD\DUHDVVXPHGWREHKRXUV UHVSHFWLYHO\6RWKHGXUDWLRQRIWKHVHORDGOHYHOVLQD\HDUZLOOEHPXOWLSOLHGE\7KHVHDUH JLYHQLQ7DEOH

9DULDWLRQVRIGHPDQGDQG*ULGSULFHDUHJLYHQLQ7DEOH

(PLVVLRQIDFWRURIPDLQJULG

(

JULGLVDVVXPHGWREH.J0:K

&RVWRIDFWLYHSRZHULH LQPHGLXPGHPDQGOHYHOLVDVVXPHGWREH0:K

(12)

&URVVRYHUSUREDELOLW\

0XWDWLRQSUREDELOLW\ 1XPEHURISRSXODWLRQ

6WRSSLQJFULWHULD0D[LWHUDWLRQ

7DEOH&KDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHGJXQLWV>@>@

'*

7HFKQRORJ\ 6L]H09$ (GJ NJ&20:K ,&GJ 09$N 20&GJ 0:K )&GJ 0:K FRVM '*

0LFUR 7XUELQH

)XHO&HOO

&RPEXVWLRQ

7XUELQH

7DEOH'DWDXVHGLQWKHVWXG\

'HPDQG/HYHOV '8GO

KRXU

'/)GO 3/)GO

/RZ

0HGLXP

+LJK

7KHIRUPXODWHGSUREOHPZDVVROYHGDQG3DUHWRRSWLPDOVROXWLRQVZHUHIRXQGE\WKHDOJRULWKP7KH 3DUHWRRSWLPDOIURQWLVGHSLFWHGLQ)LJ

1.94 1.96

1.98 2

2.02 2.04

x 108 2.75

2.8

2.85

2.9

x 109 1 2 3 4 5 6

x 104

OF2 ($) OF

3 (kg CO2)

OF

1

(MWh)

(13)

D)LQGLQJSDUHWRIURQWDQGVHOHFWLQJILQDOVROXWLRQ

1RZWKHSODQQHUKDVDUDQJHRIVROXWLRQVLQVWHDGRIMXVWRQO\RQHVROXWLRQ+HFDQGHFLGHZKDWWR FKRRVHEDVHGRQKLVUHTXLUHPHQWV,QRUGHUWRPDNHWKHFRPSDULVRQPRUHVHQVLEOHD'R1RWKLQJ&DVH '1& LV DOVRDGGHG LQ ZKLFKQR '* RSWLRQ LV DYDLODEOHIRU WKH SODQQHU7KHYDULDWLRQUDQJH RI HDFK REMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQLQWKH3DUHWRRSWLPDOIURQWLVFDOFXODWHGDQGJLYHQLQ7DEOH6RPHRIWKHREWDLQHG VROXWLRQVDUHJLYHQLQ7DEOH7KHVHVROXWLRQVFDQEHFDWHJRUL]HGDQGHDFKFDWHJRU\KDVVRPHVSHFLDO IHDWXUHV DQG WKH SODQQHUFDQ FKRRVHWKH EHVW VROXWLRQ EDVHG RQLWV SUHIHUHQFHV RYHU GLIIHUHQW REMHFWLYH IXQFWLRQV)RUH[DPSOHLIWKHSODQQHULVLQWHUHVWHGLQPLQLPL]LQJDOOREMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQVVLPXOWDQHRXVO\ WKHQVROXWLRQLVWKHEHVWRSWLRQ7KHGHWDLOVRIWKLVVROXWLRQDUHJLYHQLQ7DEOH7ZR0LFURWXUELQHV DUHLQVWDOOHGLQEXVDQGLQ\HDUDQGVLPXOWDQHRXVO\7ZRFRPEXVWLRQWXUELQHVDUHLQVWDOOHGLQ EXVDQGERWKLQWKHILUVW\HDU)RXU)XHOFHOOVVKRXOGEHLQVWDOOHGLQWKHQHWZRUN7KUHHRIWKHPDUH LQVWDOOHGLQWKHILUVW\HDUDQGRQHRIWKHPLQ\HDU,IWKHSODQQHULVMXVWLQWHUHVWHGLQRQO\WZRRIWKH REMHFWLYH IXQFWLRQV WKHQ VROXWLRQ % & DQG ' DUH WKH EHVW RQHV )RU H[DPSOH LI WKH SODQQHU LV RQO\ LQWHUHVWHGLQPLQLPL]LQJWKH2)DQG2)WKHQVROXWLRQ'LVWKHEHVWRSWLRQIRUWKHSODQQHU

7DEOH9DULDWLRQUDQJHRIREMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQIRUDOOVROXWLRQVLQ3DUHWRRSWLPDOIURQW

2) NJ &2

2)

2) 0:K

PLQ N

I

u u u

PD[ N

I

u u u

'1& u u u

7DEOH6RPHRIWKHVROXWLRQVRIWKH3DUHWRRSWLPDOIURQW

&DVH 0HWKRG 6ROXWLRQ

2)

0:K

2) N

2)

7RQ &2

P

I

P

I

P

I

$ PD[PLQN PIN

% PD[PLQN PIN

& PD[PLQN PIN

' PD[PLQN PIN

7DEOH7KHLQYHVWPHQWSODQREWDLQHGIRUFDVHD

'*

7HFKQRORJ\ 1XPEHURI,QVWDOOHG'* 6L]H09$ <HDU %XV

0LFUR

7XUELQH

&RPEXVWLRQ

7XUELQH

)XHO&HOO

E&RPSDULQJWRRWKHUKHXULVWLFPHWKRGVDQGGLVFXVVLQJWKHUHVXOWV

(14)

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

7DEOH&RPSDULQJWKHSURSRVHGPHWKRGZLWKRWKHUKHXULVWLFPHWKRGV

0HWKRG 5XQQLQJWLPHPLQ RI3DUHWR2SWLPDOVROXWLRQV

7DEX6HDUFK>@

362>@

3URSRVHGPHWKRG

F$QDO\]LQJWKH3DUHWRIURQW

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

)LJ3HUFHQWRIDSSHDUDQFHRIHDFK'*WHFKQRORJ\LQ VROXWLRQVRI3DUHWRRSWLPDOIURQW

7KH PRUH D '* WHFKQRORJ\ DSSHDUV LQ WKH VROXWLRQV RI 3DUHWR RSWLPDO IURQW WKH PRUH VXLWDEOH WKDW WHFKQRORJ\LV,QWKHVWXGLHGQHWZRUNWKHFRPEXVWLRQWXUELQHPLFURWXUELQHDQGILQDOO\WKHIXHOFHOOVDUH WKH EHVW RSWLRQV IRU LQYHVWPHQW 7KH IUHTXHQF\ RI DSSHDUDQFH RI HDFK EXV LQ WKH VROXWLRQV RI 3DUHWR RSWLPDOIURQWVKRZVWKHDSSURSULDWHORFDWLRQVIRU'*SODFHPHQWDVVKRZQLQ)LJ

(15)

)LJ3HUFHQWRIDSSHDUDQFHRIHDFKEXVLQVROXWLRQVRI3DUHWRRSWLPDOIURQW

7KH PRVW IUHTXHQW EXVLQWKH 3DUHWR RSWLPDO IURQW LV EXV DQG DIWHU WKDWWKH EXV LV WKH QH[W DSSURSULDWHEXVIRU'*LQYHVWPHQWDQGVRRQ

&21&/86,21

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

120(1&/$785(

,QGLFHV

LM %XV

GJ '*WHFKQRORJ\

GO 'HPDQGOHYHO

" )HHGHU

N Nc 2EMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQ

Q 6ROXWLRQ

W Wc <HDU &RQVWDQWV

GO

'/)

'HPDQGOHYHOIDFWRULQGHPDQGOHYHOGO

P 'LPHQVLRQRIVROXWLRQV

G 'LVFRXQWUDWH

GO

'8

'XUDWLRQRIGHPDQGOHYHOGO

JULG

( (PLVVLRQIDFWRURIWKHJULG

GJ

( (PLVVLRQIDFWRURIDGJ

GJ

,& ,QVWDOODWLRQFRVWRIDGJ

GJ

(16)

GJ )& )XHOFRVWRIDGJ GO

3/)

3ULFHOHYHOIDFWRULQGHPDQGOHYHOGO 7 3ODQQLQJKRUL]RQ

D

5DWHRIGHPDQGJURZWK 9DULDEOHV ' L W GO

3

$FWLYHSRZHUGHPDQGLQEXVLLQ\HDUWLQGHPDQGOHYHOGO

JULG L W GO

3

$FWLYHSRZHUSXUFKDVHGIURPJULGLQ\HDUWDQGGHPDQGOHYHOGO

GJ L W GO

3

$FWLYHSRZHULQMHFWHGE\DGJLQEXVLLQ\HDUWDQGGHPDQGOHYHOGO JULG W GO

6

$SSDUHQWSRZHULPSRUWHGIURPJULGLQ\HDUWDQGGHPDQGOHYHOGO GJ L W GO

6

$SSDUHQWSRZHURIGJLQVWDOOHGLQEXVLLQ\HDUWDQGGHPDQGOHYHOGO W GO

$/

$FWLYHSRZHUORVVVLQ\HDUWLQGHPDQGOHYHOGO ' L EDVH

3

%DVHDFWLYHSRZHUGHPDQGLQEXVLLQILUVW\HDU ' L EDVH

4

%DVHUHDFWLYHSRZHUGHPDQGLQEXVLLQILUVW\HDU U %DVHSULFHRIDFWLYHSRZHUSXUFKDVHGIURPWKHJULG W GO

,

" &XUUHQWPDJQLWXGHRI WKIHHGHULQ\HDUWDQGGHPDQGOHYHOGO

Q )1 )URQWQXPEHUWRZKLFKQWKVROXWLRQEHORQJV Q *' *OREDO'LYHUVLW\RIQWKVROXWLRQ N Q /' /RFDOGLYHUVLW\RIQWKVROXWLRQLQNWKREMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQ N 0' 0D[LPXPGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHYDOXHVRINWKREMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQUHJDUGLQJDOOVROXWLRQV

OLPG J

3 0D[LPXPRSHUDWLQJOLPLWRIDGJ

QHW L W GO

3

1HWDFWLYHSRZHULQMHFWHGWREXVLLQ\HDUWDQGGHPDQGOHYHOGO

QHW L W GO

4

1HWUHDFWLYHSRZHULQMHFWHGWREXVLLQ\HDUWDQGGHPDQGOHYHOGO GJ L W

[

1XPEHURILQVWDOOHGXQLWVRIDGJLQEXVLLQWKH\HDUW E 1 1XPEHURIEXVHVLQWKHQHWZRUN 3

1

1XPEHURISRSXODWLRQ

1

" 1XPEHURIIHHGHUVLQWKHQHWZRUN 2

1

1XPEHURIREMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQV GO

1

1XPEHURIFRQVLGHUHGGHPDQGOHYHOV L

3VHXGR

3VHXGRILWQHVVRIVROXWLRQL GJ L W GO

4

5HDFWLYHSRZHULQMHFWHGE\DGJLQEXVLLQ\HDUWDQGGHPDQGOHYHOGO

' L W GO

4

5HDFWLYHSRZHUGHPDQGLQEXVLLQ\HDUWLQGHPDQGOHYHOGO *& 7RWDOFRVWSDLGWRJULG

'*,& 7RWDOLQVWDOODWLRQFRVWRI'*XQLWV '*9& 7RWDOYDULDEOHFRVWVRI'*XQLWV

PD[J U L G

6 8SSHUVDIHRSHUDWLRQWKHUPDOOLPLWVRIVXEVWDWLRQIHHGLQJWKHQHWZRUN

PD[

," 8SSHURSHUDWLRQWKHUPDOOLPLWVRIIHHGHUV PD[ PLQ

(17)

L W GO

9

9ROWDJHPDJQLWXGHLQEXVLLQ\HDUWDQGGHPDQGOHYHOGO

L W GO

G

9ROWDJHDQJOHLQEXVLLQ\HDUWDQGGHPDQGOHYHOGO

5()(5(1&(6

:LOOLV+/'LVWULEXWHGSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQSODQQLQJDQGHYDOXDWLRQ 86$&5&3UHVVVWHGLWLRQ 3HSHUPDQV*'ULHVHQ-+DHVHOGRQFN['%HOPDQV5 '¶KDHVHOHHU:'LVWULEXWHGJHQHUDWLRQ

GHILQLWLRQEHQHILWVDQGLVVXHV(QHUJ\3ROLF\ 9RO1RSS±

$FNHUPDQQ7$QGHUVVRQ* 6RGHU/'LVWULEXWHGJHQHUDWLRQDGHILQLWLRQ(OHFWULF3RZHU6\VWHPV 5HVHDUFK 9RO1RSS±

,($'LVWULEXWHGJHQHUDWLRQLQOLEHUDOL]HGHOHFWULFLW\PDUNHWV,QWHUQDWLRQDO(QHUJ\$JHQF\7HFK5HS %RUJHV & / )DOFDR ' 0 2SWLPDO GLVWULEXWHG JHQHUDWLRQ DOORFDWLRQ IRU UHOLDELOLW\ ORVVHV DQG

YROWDJHLPSURYHPHQW,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI(OHFWULFDO3RZHU (QHUJ\6\VWHPV 9RO1RSS±

6RURXGL $ (KVDQ 0 0XOWL REMHFWLYH GLVWULEXWHG JHQHUDWLRQ SODQQLQJ LQ OLEHUDOL]HG HOHFWULFLW\ PDUNHWV7UDQVPLVVLRQDQG'LVWULEXWLRQ&RQIHUHQFHDQG([SRVLWLRQ SS±

4XH]DGD9$EEDG- 5RPDQ7$VVHVVPHQWRIHQHUJ\GLVWULEXWLRQORVVHVIRULQFUHDVLQJSHQHWUDWLRQ RIGLVWULEXWHGJHQHUDWLRQ,(((7UDQVDFWLRQVRQ3RZHU6\VWHPV 9RO1RSS±

1LNQDP75DQMEDU$6KLUDQL$ 2VWDGL$$QHZDSSURDFKEDVHGRQDQWDOJRULWKPIRUYROWYDU FRQWURO LQ GLVWULEXWLRQ QHWZRUNFRQVLGHULQJ GLVWULEXWHG JHQHUDWLRQ,UDQLDQ -RXUQDORI 6FLHQFH 7HFKQRORJ\ 7UDQVDFWLRQ%(QJLQHHULQJ 9RO1R%SS±

=KX'%URDGZDWHU57DP.66HJXLQ5 $VJHLUVVRQ+,PSDFWRIGJSODFHPHQWRQUHOLDELOLW\

DQGHIILFLHQF\ZLWKWLPHYDU\LQJORDGV,(((7UDQVDFWLRQVRQ3RZHU6\VWHPV 9RO1RSS± )DYX]]D 6 *UDGLWL * ,SSROLWR 0 6DQVHYHULQR ( 2SWLPDO HOHFWULFDO GLVWULEXWLRQ V\VWHPV

UHLQIRUFHPHQWSODQQLQJXVLQJJDVPLFURWXUELQHVE\G\QDPLFDQWFRORQ\VHDUFKDOJRULWKP,(((7UDQVDFWLRQVRQ

3RZHU6\VWHPV 9RO1RSS±

$JDOJDRQNDU$.XONDUQL6 .KDSDUGH6(YDOXDWLRQRIFRQILJXUDWLRQSODQVIRU'*VLQGHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHVXVLQJDGYDQFHGSODQQLQJWHFKQLTXHV,(((7UDQVDFWLRQVRQ3RZHU6\VWHPV 9RO1RSS±

+DUULVRQ*33LFFROR$6LDQR3 :DOODFH$5'LVWULEXWHGJHQHUDWLRQFDSDFLW\HYDOXDWLRQXVLQJ FRPELQHGJHQHWLFDOJRULWKPDQG23),QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI(PHUJLQJ(OHFWULF3RZHU6\VWHPV 9RO1R SS±

6LDQR 3 2FKRD / +DUULVRQ * 3LFFROR $ $VVHVVLQJ WKH VWUDWHJLF EHQHILWV RI GLVWULEXWHG JHQHUDWLRQRZQHUVKLSIRU'12V*HQHUDWLRQ7UDQVPLVVLRQ 'LVWULEXWLRQ,(7 9RO1RSS± +HGD\DWL+1DEDYLQLDNL6 $NEDULPDMG$$PHWKRGIRUSODFHPHQWRI'*XQLWVLQGLVWULEXWLRQ

QHWZRUNV3RZHU'HOLYHU\,(((7UDQVDFWLRQVRQ 9RO1RSS±

*]HOD7 +RFDRJOX0+$QDQDO\WLFDOPHWKRGIRUWKHVL]LQJDQGVLWWLQJRIGLVWULEXWHGJHQHUDWRUVLQ UDGLDOV\VWHPV(OHFWULF3RZHU6\VWHPV5HVHDUFK 9RO1RSS±

&HOOL* 3LOR)2SWLPDOGLVWULEXWHGJHQHUDWLRQDOORFDWLRQLQ09GLVWULEXWLRQQHWZRUNVLQ3RZHU ,QGXVWU\&RPSXWHU$SSOLFDWLRQ SS±

7HQJ-+/LX<+&KHQ&< &KHQ&)9DOXHEDVHGGLVWULEXWHGJHQHUDWRUSODFHPHQWVIRU VHUYLFHTXDOLW\LPSURYHPHQWV´(OHFWULFDOSRZHU HQHUJ\V\VWHPV 9RO1RSS±

2FKRD/3DGLOKD)HOWULQ$ +DUULVRQ*(YDOXDWLQJGLVWULEXWHGJHQHUDWLRQLPSDFWVZLWKDPXOWL REMHFWLYHLQGH[,(((7UDQVDFWLRQVRQ3RZHU'HOLYHU\ 9RO1RSS±

(18)

(O.KDWWDP : %KDWWDFKDU\D . +HJD]\ < 6DODPD 0 2SWLPDO LQYHVWPHQW SODQQLQJ IRU GLVWULEXWHGJHQHUDWLRQLQDFRPSHWLWLYHHOHFWULFLW\PDUNHW,(((7UDQVDFWLRQVRQ3RZHU6\VWHPV 9RO1R SS±

+DJKLIDP 05)DODJKL + 0DOLN 2 5LVNEDVHGGLVWULEXWHG JHQHUDWLRQSODFHPHQW*HQHUDWLRQ 7UDQVPLVVLRQDQG'LVWULEXWLRQ,(7 9RO1RSS±

6LQJK ' 9HUPD . 6 0XOWLREMHFWLYH RSWLPL]DWLRQ IRU GJ SODQQLQJ ZLWK ORDG PRGHOV3RZHU 6\VWHPV,(((7UDQVDFWLRQVRQ 9RO1RSS±

'HE.0XOWLREMHFWLYHRSWLPL]DWLRQXVLQJHYROXWLRQDU\DOJRULWKPV 86$-KRQ:LOH\ 6RQV

0HQGR]D)%HUQDO$JXVWLQ- 'RPLQJXH]1DYDUUR-16*$DQG63($DSSOLHGWRPXOWLREMHFWLYH GHVLJQRISRZHUGLVWULEXWLRQV\VWHPV,(((7UDQVDFWLRQVRQ3RZHU6\VWHPV 9RO1RSS± %KDWWDFKDU\D&3$$PRGLILHGSDUWLFOHVZDUPRSWLPL]DWLRQIRUVROYLQJWKHQRQFRQYH[HFRQRPLF

GLVSDWFK9ROSS±

*ORYHU) /DJXQD07DEX6HDUFK 86$6SULQJHU

+ROODQG-$GDSWDWLRQLQ1DWXUDODQG$UWLILFLDO6\VWHPV 86$8QLYHUVLW\RI0LFKLJDQ3UHVV

0DJKRXOL+6%0603$PXOWLREMHFWLYHIUDPHZRUNIRUWUDQVPLVVLRQH[SDQVLRQSODQQLQJLQ GHUHJXODWHGHQYLURQPHQWV,(((7UDQVDFWLRQVRQ3RZHU6\VWHPV 9RO1RSS±

6KDQWKL-$98QLWFRPPLWPHQWE\JHQHWLFDOJRULWKPV9ROSS±

%DVX0'\QDPLFHFRQRPLFHPLVVLRQGLVSDWFKXVLQJHYROXWLRQDU\SURJUDPPLQJDQGIX]]\VDWLVI\LQJ PHWKRG,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI(PHUJLQJ(OHFWULF3RZHU6\VWHPV 9RO1R

&%2 3URVSHFWV IRU GLVWULEXWHG HOHFWULFLW\ JHQHUDWLRQ &RQJUHVV RI WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV &RQJUHVVLRQDO %XGJHW2IILFH7HFK5HS

(35,'LVWULEXWHGHQHUJ\UHVRXUFHVHPLVVLRQVVXUYH\DQGWHFKQRORJ\FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ(OHFWULF3RZHU 5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH7HFK5HS

=KX-;LRQJ;=KDQJ-6KHQ*;X4 ;XH<$UXOHEDVHGFRPSUHKHQVLYHDSSURDFKIRU

UHFRQILJXUDWLRQRIHOHFWULFDOGLVWULEXWLRQQHWZRUN(OHFWULF3RZHU6\VWHPV5HVHDUFK 9RO1RSS±

1HGMDK10XOWLREMHFWLYHVZDUPLQWHOOLJHQWV\VWHPV7KHRU\ ([SHULHQFHV 86$6SULQJHU

-DEU55DGLDOGLVWULEXWLRQORDGIORZXVLQJFRQLFSURJUDPPLQJ,(((7UDQVDFWLRQVRQ3RZHU6\VWHPV 9RO1RSS±

References

Related documents

Esta contribución a la investigación de la igualdad, el género y la diversidad sexual en la formación inicial de maestras y maestros, pretende analizar el estado de la cuestión del

Then the option value at expiry is calculated, and from the expiry nodes work backwards down the tree to obtain option values at earlier nodes in standard fashion, as in the CRR

A distributed simulation platform, which is called dPeerSim, is used for the large-scale simulation of DTR1 and DTR2 in dynamic network conditions.. dPeerSim is a collaborative

Clarifying the specific responsibilities and steps to assess and manage both people safety and product safety risks through the procurement and contract management process is an

We compare three different historical baseline methods and one innovative dynamic model baseline approach to appraise their applicability under a future REDD policy framework using

In sum, the expatriate literature has overlooked the importance of continuation of spouse career in the host country and the present study brings to light the negative effect of

However, at the WCRC patients with traumatic SCI are only followed up one year after discharge, unless they develop problems before that time (Roodt, 2011). It is