POST OPERATIONS ANALYSIS REPORT

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POST OPERATIONS ANALYSIS REPORT

November, 2020

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CCC-CATFM/2020/11/05

17 List of Figures

Figure 1: Daily ATMs at six major airports - Nov'20 ...5

Figure 2: Percentage Traffic Variation (YoY) ...6

Figure 3: Month wise ATMs at six major airports ...7

Figure 4: Traffic Growth - Post Covid ...8

Figure 5: Busiest Airports in India - Nov’20...8

Figure 6: Flight Movements – Airline wise ...9

Figure 7: ATFM Measures - Nov'20 ... 10

Figure 8: Affected Flight Statistics – Nov’20 ... 11

Figure 9: Overall Compliance – Nov’20 ... 12

Figure 10: ATFM Compliance – Month wise ... 13

Figure 11: Airlines Overall Compliance - Nov'20... 15

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17 A. Executive Summary

Government of India has now allowed domestic airlines to ramp up their operations to 80 per cent of pre-Covid approved capacity from the existing 70 per cent stipulation. This will help airlines in adding more flights on existing as well as new sectors as flight operations inch towards normalcy. Upon resumption of flights in May, the airlines were allowed to operate not more than 33 per cent of their pre-COVID domestic flights. On June 26, this was increased to 45 per cent and on September 2, it was further increased to 60 per cent. On November 11, it was increased to 70 per cent.

The scheduled international flight movements however remain suspended till 1829 UTC of 31st December’20. (NOTAM G1183 replacing NOTAM G0915/20).

Even though India has extended its embargo on international flights till 31st_{December’20, special international}

passenger flights have been operating in India under the Vande Bharat Mission since May and under bilateral air bubble arrangements formed between India and other countries since July. Air bubbles or travel corridors are systems established between two countries that perceive each other to be safe and allow carriers of both the countries to fly passengers either way without any restrictions. Government is also implementing “air bubble” agreements with countries in order to mitigate a host of quarantine and Covid-19 testing rules at arrival destinations.

ATFM measures were applied four times for Bengaluru Airport in the month of November’20 due to scheduled Runway maintenance.The average CTOT compliance rate was observed to be 80% and 59% of arrivals received an air delay of 10 minutes or less during the period when ATFM measures were in force.

B. Traffic Analysis

Experts have pointed out to the containment of Covid19 spread as one of the key factors in recovery of domestic flights. “The recovery in domestic passenger traffic is contingent on the following five factors – containment of the spread of Covid-19, which in turn is dependent on the development of a vaccine and its wide availability, willingness of consumers to undertake leisure travel, recovery in macroeconomic growth, which in turn impacts consumer sentiments and ability to travel, Central and various state government-mandated travel restrictions and quarantine norms, and recovery in business travel”.

The total number of ATMs at Indian Airports in Nov’20 (during Covid pandemic) w.r.t. Dec’19(Pre -Covid) is

57.4%.

The total Air traffic movement including Passenger and Combination of other flights i.e. All-Cargo flights, International scheduled , International non-scheduled , Domestic scheduled,Domestic non-scheduled ,Air taxi & commercial business flights and all other aircraft movements at four major Indian Airports namely Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru and Hyderabad is plotted for each day of the month of Nov’20. The data used is the movement data received from Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru and Hyderabad Airport. Airline movement is also plotted for the month for major Scheduled Operators.

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I. Daily ATMs at six major airports

Figure 1: Daily ATMs at six major airports - Nov'20 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 A ir Tr aff ic M o ve m e n ts

Daily ATMs - November 2020

Mumbai Delhi Bengaluru Hyderabad Kolkata Chennai

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II. Comparison of total ATMs (YoY) and Month wise

The graph below depicts the change in total ATMs in the month of Nov’20 in comparison to the total ATMs in Nov’19 for six major Airports in India. The traffic handled at Bengaluru in Nov’20 is 57.9% less than the traffic handled in Nov’19 whereas the traffic handled in Mumbai,Delhi, Hyderabad,Kolkata and Chennai are 47.7%,43.1% , 43.6%,47.4% and 51.5% less than the traffic handled in Nov’19 respectively.

Figure 2: Percentage Traffic Variation (YoY)

Total ATMs (YoY) for six major airports

Airports\Year Nov’20 Nov’19

Mumbai 14078 26946 Delhi 23919 42072 Bengaluru 12615 19919 Hyderabad 9309 16517 Kolkata 7941 15120 Chennai 7206 14847 -47.7% -43.1% -57.9% -43.6% -47.4% -51.5% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%

Mumbai Delhi Bengaluru Hyderabad Kolkata Chennai

%

C

h

an

ge

%Traffic Variations : Nov'20 vs. Nov'19

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The graph below presents the month wise air traffic movement in the year 2020, at six major Airports.

Figure 3: Month wise ATMs at six major airports

42261 27873 21115 16922 15473 15672 41021 24457 19752 15474 14079 14583 28277 17983 14338 11354 ₁₀₈₇₀ 10464 1449 ₉₉₂ 502 ₂₅₁ 426 465 4092 1860 ₁₅₆₇ 851 796 1143 12498 4395 5017 3606 4737 2785 14160 5586 5820 5403 3717 ₃₂₀₁ 16204 6100 7564 6392 3683 3676 19408 9130 9639 8041 6058 5032 22758 11893 11683 8947 7576 6332 23919 14078 12615 9309 7941 7206

Delhi Mumbai Bengaluru Hyderabad Kolkata Chennai

A

TMs

Total ATMs (Month wise - 2020)

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

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III. Air-Traffic Growth (Post COVID Lockdown period)

The graph below plots the percentage change per month in Air traffic (domestic and international) post Covid Lockdown and resumption of flight operations from May’20. The Indian aviation industry witnessed continued recovery in domestic passenger traffic in November, with a steady growth over October by 8%.

Figure 4: Traffic Growth - Post Covid

IV. Flight Operations – Airport wise

Figure 5: Busiest Airports in India - Nov’20 23919 14078 ₁₂₆₁₅ 9309 ₇₉₄₁ 7206 4675 ₂₆₅₂ ₂₆₄₃ 2549 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 N o .Of Fl ig h ts

Top 10 Busiest Airports - Nov'20

Data Source: AOCC, ATC Automation,AIMS & SKYFLOW

7371 8459 8680 9633 10507 11486 27467 30047 34260 46096 56863 61411 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000

Jun'20 Jul'20 Aug'20 Sep'20 Oct'20 Nov'20 Dec'20 Jan'20 Feb'21

N o .O f Fl ig h ts

Traffic Growth Post-COVID

International Domestic 9% 14% 3% 14% 35% 11% 23% 9%

Data Source: SKYFLOW

8%

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V. Flight Operations – Airline wise (Post COVID lockdown period)

Figure 6: Flight Movements – Airline wise

11163 5028 4980 788 1225 1369 14294 5307 5382 965 941 1313 17010 5536 5722 1118 1201 1698 22462 7176 ₆₈₉₉ 2415 2305 2202 26359 8652 8503 3395 ₂₈₉₅ 3274 28419 9375 9765 4460 3127 3498 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000

Indigo Spicejet Air India Go Air Vistara Air Asia

N o .O f Fl ig h ts Airline

Flight Movements

June July August September October November

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17 C. ATFM Post Operations – CDM Analysis

I. Introduction

Analysis Period

1st_{– 30}th_{November’20}

Back Ground During the above mentioned period, ATFM measures were applied four(4) times for

Bengaluru Airport due to the following reasons as illustrated in the bar chart below:–

Figure 7: ATFM Measures - Nov'20 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 Bengaluru N o . o f A TFM M e asu re s Ap p lie d

ATFM MEASURES - NOV'20

Column1

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II. ATFM Measures Overview

Bengaluru Airport

Number of ATFM measures applied 4

Average ATFM Ground delay due to measures 17 min

Maximum ATFM Ground delay due to measures 40 min

% Compliance 80

Note: *𝑨𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝑨𝑻𝑭𝑴 𝑫𝒆𝒍𝒂𝒚 =_{𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑫𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒄 𝑨𝒓𝒓𝒊𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒔}𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑨𝑻𝑭𝑴 𝑫𝒆𝒍𝒂𝒚

Total affected flights in scenario (Domestic Arrivals) 66

Total Domestic Arrivals with zero ATFM delay 10

Total Domestic Arrivals with ATFM delay 56

Figure 8: Affected Flight Statistics – Nov’20 56, 85%

10, 15%

Affected Flight Statistics

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III. Overall Compliance

Total Arrivals 66

Domestic arrivals 66

Flights with complete data (ATOT) 66

Flights with incomplete data 0

Flights Not Operated 0

Compliant* 53

Non-Compliant 13

Total No. of Revised CTOTs issued = 5 (Compliance calculation for flights which were issued revised CTOT is w.r.t. new CTOT issued)

Figure 9: Overall Compliance – Nov’20

NOTE: Flights with required data (i.e. ATOT) are only considered for compliance measurement

53, 80%

13, 20%

Overall Compliance

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Figure 10: ATFM Compliance – Month wise

Inference

1. Out of the total arrivals captured for the constrained Airports during the CDM scenario , 100% of flights i.e. Domestic arrivals, are participating.

2. Out of these Domestic Arrivals, 85% of arrivals are assigned ATFM ground delay & 15% of flights are without any ATFM ground delay.

3. Out of the total arrivals captured to the constrained Airport during the ATFM scenario, 85% of flights are assigned ATFM Ground Delay.

385 649 410 35 103 53 234 368 246 17 39 ₁₃ 62 64 ₆₂ 67 73 80 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 N o . o f Fl ig h ts A d h e re n ce R ate ( % ) Month

ATFM Departure Slot Adherence - Month Wise (2020)

Flights within STW Flights outside STW Adherence rate

No ATFM

Measures

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IV. CTOT Compliance rate – Airport wise

MUMBAI FMP (90%)*

Compliant Non Compliant %Compliant

Kolhapur 2 1 67 Bhopal 3 0 100 Pune 2 0 100 Surat 2 0 100 KOLKATA FMP (78%)* Bagdogra 2 0 100 Guwahati 3 1 75 Kolkata 6 4 60 Allahabad 3 0 100 Varanasi 4 0 100 DELHI FMP (92%)* Delhi 6 1 86 Chandigarh 2 0 100 Jaipur 1 0 100 Lucknow 2 0 100 CHENNAI FMP (71%)* Chennai 2 1 67 Rajahmundry 1 0 100 Hyderabad 9 0 100 Belgaum 1 2 33 Madurai 2 1 67

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V. CTOT Compliance rate – Airline wise

Figure 11: Airlines Overall Compliance - Nov'20

Inference

1. Out of the total domestic arrivals with complete data in the CDM scenario, 80% arrivals are compliant. 2. Delhi region has the highest compliance rate of 92% whereas Chennai region has the lowest compliance

rate of 71%.

3. Air Asia,Indigo and GoAir have a compliance rate above the average recorded 80% compliance.

11 38 4 3 5 3 8 32 4 2 4 3 73 84 100 67 80 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Air India Indigo Go Air Vistara Spicejet Air Asia

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 % C o m p lian ce N o . o f Fl ig h ts

Overall Compliance Chart of Airline Operators - Nov'20

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VI. Air Delay during the CDM Scenario period

Average Air Delay to domestic arrivals* within the CDM Scenario period for Bengaluru is 14 minutes

*Note: Only calculated for domestic arrivals with both ATOT and ALDT information

Distribution of difference between AET & filed EET

AET-EET min (time band) <= -10 -9 to -6 -5 to -1 0 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 20 21 to 25 26 to 30 >30 Bengaluru Flt. Count 1 2 9 14 12 6 9 5 3 3 % flight 2 3 14 22 18 9 14 8 5 5

Figure 12: Cumulative Air Delay during CDM period

Inference

1. 59% of arriving flights to Bengaluru had an Air delay of equal to or less than 10 minutes during the CDM period. 2 5 19 41 59 68 82 90 95 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 < = -10 < = -6 < = -1 < = 5 < = 10 < = 15 < = 20 < = 25 < = 30 > 30 Per ce n tage

Air Delay in Minutes

Cumulative Air Delay

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17 D. Glossary

ATFM Parameters

Definition

Affected Flight statistics

An insight of participating traffic in the scenario i.e. ratio of the domestic arrivals to the constrained airport affected by ATFM measures (assigned delay by the Ground Delay Program) to the domestic arrivals not affected by ATFM measures (not assigned any delay) within the CDM scenario.

ATFM Ground delay ATFM ground delay defined as CTOT-ETOT (Calculated take off time – Estimated take off time)

Average ATFM delay 𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒉𝒍𝒚 𝑨𝑻𝑭𝑴 𝒅𝒆𝒍𝒂𝒚 (𝒊𝒏 𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒖𝒕𝒆𝒔)

𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑫𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒄 𝑨𝒓𝒓𝒊𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒔

Maximum ATFM delay Maximum ATFM delay (in minutes) assigned in the month

Overall compliance rate

Defined as monthly ATFM departure slot adherence rate of regulated flights. Flights having ATOT within the ATFM Slot Tolerance Window (STW) of minus 5 to plus 10 minutes of CTOTs, are considered as compliant flights

CTOT Compliance rate of

Airline operators An overview of CTOT compliance rate of various Airline operators

CTOT Compliance rate of Airports within different

Regions

An overview of CTOT compliance rate of Airports within 4 FIRs

Air delay statistics

Air delay defined as difference between AET & EET, where AET(actual elapsed time) can be obtained from (ALDT-ATOT) and estimated elapsed time(EET)can be obtained from FPL/RPL or (CLDT-CTOT). Therefore, Air delay = AET-EET Average Air Delay is calculated as:

𝑨𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝑨𝒊𝒓 𝑫𝒆𝒍𝒂𝒚

=𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑨𝒊𝒓 𝑫𝒆𝒍𝒂𝒚 𝒕𝒐 𝒅𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒄 𝒂𝒓𝒓𝒊𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒔 (𝒘𝒊𝒕𝒉 𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒆𝒔 𝒈𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒓 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒏 𝒛𝒆𝒓𝒐) 𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑫𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒄 𝑨𝒓𝒓𝒊𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒔

CLDT: Calculated Landing Time CTOT: Calculated Take off Time ALDT: Actual Landing Time ATOT: Actual Take off Time

POST OPERATIONS ANALYSIS REPORT