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Dating U.S. Business Cycles with Macro Factors

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Table 1: Single-Factor Probit Models for y t Regressor f ˆ 1t f ˆ 2t f ˆ 3t f ˆ 4t f ˆ 5t f ˆ 6t f ˆ 7t f ˆ 8t α -1.674 -1.039 -1.029 -1.031 -1.055 -1.023 -1.027 -1.026 (0.121) (0.063) (0.063) (0.063) (0.064) (0.062) (0.062) (0.062) δ -1.660 0.187 0.121 0.
Table 2: Probit Models for y t
Figure 1: First Factor and Capacity Utilization. “First Factor” denotes the first es- es-timated factor ( ˆf 1t )
Figure 3: Standardized negative posterior mean latent variable from the FP model for the full sample and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti (ADS) business conditions index
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