Top 20 Global Mega Trends and Their
Impact on Business, Cultures and
Society
Presented by
Sarwant Singh
Agenda
• Presentation of Top 10 Mega Trends
1. Urbanization: Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors, Smart Cities 2. E-Mobility
3. Social Trends: Geo Socialization, Generation Y and Reverse Brain Drain
4. SPACE JAM: Congested Satellite Orbits
5. World War 3: Cyber Warfare
6. RoboSlaves
7. Virtual World: Fluid Interfaces and Haptic Technology 8. Innovating to Zero ! : Zero Emission Technologies
9. Emerging Transportation Corridors
10. Health, Wellness and Well-Being
• Overview of Next Top 10 Mega Trends
• Key Strategic Conclusions
• Workshop : How To Apply Mega Trends Within an Organisation to Develop Growth
Three Main Trends in Urbanization: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors
MEGA CITY
City With A Minimum Population Of 5 Million
EXAMPLE: Greater London
MEGA REGIONS
Cities Combining With Suburbs To Form Regions. (Population
over 10 Million) EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and Pretoria (forming
“Jo-Toria”)
MEGA CORRIDORS
The Corridors Connecting Two Major Cities or Mega Regions EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou in China (Population
1950s Urbanisation
2000s Suburbanisation
2015s Network City
2020s : Branded Cities
Megacity Trend
• City borders will expand out of suburbs to include daughter cities. The Core City will enclose multiple downtowns.
• Multiple Transportation Models will be used and more than 50% will use public transportation
• Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost sensitive activities: city centres becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for “double income, no kids” households.
Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road Creation of the historic centre and districts
Third suburban area and cities along the highways created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl
Ring Road Motorway, Living Areas growing outside the ring road as seen in London
By 2020, We Will See Development of Mega City Corridors and Networked, Integrated and Branded Cities
Smart Cities – “Green” Replaced by “SMART” Concepts ‘S” Governance ‘S’ City Planning ‘S’ Energy ‘S’ Business ‘S’ ICT ‘S’ Mobility ‘S’ Citizen ‘S’ Buildings
Smart Diamond to define Smart city
S o u rc e : F ro s t & S u lli v a n ‘S’ Information Technology
Cities built from scratch Existing eco cities Existing eco megacities
Treasure Island
Boulder
Arcosanti
Coyote Springs Destiny Babcock Ranch Vancouver Toronto San Francisco Portland Seattle Curitiba Montreal Bogota St Davids Clonburris Göteborg Hammarby Sjöstad London Barcelona Reykjavik Oslo Freiburg Stockholm Paris Copenhagen Kochi GIFT Cape Town Pune Dongtan Tianjin Changsha
Khajuraho Meixi Lake
Waitakere, N.Z. Singapore City Songdo Moreland, Australia Amsterdam Masdar Legend
Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 - More than 50% of Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America.
Case Study - Lavasa (India) Smart Township
Private infrastructure companies in India building integrated township that offer smart living and working
»India’s first and largest hill city to evolve over next 12 years.
»This integrated township is built across 12,500 acres at a cost of Rs 1,400 billion
“Smart” Market Opportunity : Convergence of Technology Will Lead to Convergence of Competition IT Players Automation/Building Energy/Infrastructure Players •IP Networks •Digital Technology •Analysis Software •Wireless Communication •Technology Integration •Network Security •Etc. •T&D Technology •Power Electronics •Renewable Energy
•Integrated Distribution Management
•Substation Automation •AMI-Enabled Metering •Etc. •Building Automation •Demand-Side Management •Connectivity of devices
•Monitoring and Sensing
•Smart Grid Integration
E-Mobility : Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be Sold Annually Around the Globe in 2020
XM 3000 Electric Moped
Sanyo Enacle The GEM Peapod The Smith Newton
Total 30 million – 2 Wheelers (2020)
Total 10 Million – 4 Wheelers (2020)
Electric Vehicle Market Eco-System Provides Opportunity to Enter New Fields
Utilities Integrator
(e.g. Better Place) OEMs
System/Battery Manufacturers Government Charging Station Manufacturers
Electric Vehicles Will Usher New Mobility Business Model : Future Leasing Models To Sell 75% Of Vehicles; The Rest 25% Sold
Traditionally
Business Model 1 Business Model 2 Business Model 3 Business Model 4
TYPE Energy Package Maintenance Package Part Subsidy Full Subsidy
COVER Partial battery
lease + Electricity Energy Package+ Insurance+ Maintenance Maintenance Package+ Discount Maintenance Package+ 100% Discount
ENERGY Monthly Bill Flat: Max 2000km/month Flat: 25,000km/year Flat: 30,000km/year
CONTRACT NA NA 4 years 7 years
SUBSIDY NA NA 50% car price Free car
MONTHLY LEASE
Up to €150 Up to €350 €500- €800 ~ €900- €1500
Flexible Mileage Unlimited Miles Max number of miles Pay as you go
Flexible Contract The customer opts for the number of years and flexible mileage- customized lease Other Possible Leasing models
Source: Frost & Sullivan •Charge Payment Program / Subscription based services • Manufacturing & Sales • Load Management • Extended E-mobility solution e.g. vehicle sharing
•Energy Subscription Packages P o s s ib le R e v e n u e S tr e a m s Charging
Stations Batteries E-Mobility Vehicles Electricity
Telematics & other value added services S e rv ic e s
Example of Products/Services Portfolio That Can be Offered by an Integrator in the E-Mobility Market
•Installation & Maintenance •Revenues from value added services •Premium revenues via Renewable Energy Vs Non Renewable Energy •Premium revenues via Peak Power Vs Off Peak Charging
•Level 1 Vs Level 2 Vs Level 3 Charging •Battery Leasing Model •Refurbishing •Recycling •Battery 2ndlife •Battery Swapping •Extend to other E-mobility solutions •Battery Integration •Offering After-Sales services – • Market green solutions such as Solar panels to E-Mobility client base
• investment in renewable energy such as wind farms
and gain carbon credits
•Recycling and Refurbishing
• Premium revenues via Peak Power Vs Off Peak Charging
•Premium revenues via Renewable Energy Vs Non Renewable Energy • Subscription based Energy service Scheme •Data Aggregator ( working with other
partners) •Battery management services •Advanced booking of charging stations •V2V and V2G Communication • Added value service (POIs, Diagnostics, etc)
Six Degrees Apart: Geo Socialization in 2020
Used For:
Meet Ups, Restaurant and Nightclub Reviews, Concert Events Used For: Networking in Business Conferences: Updates on Potential Contacts Used For:
Local Real Estate News, Geo Socializing with Friends Used For:
Digital Marketing: Receiving Updates on Promotion and Offers
Reverse Brain Drain and Huge Shortage of CXO Positions In BRIC Nations Will Make Us Look For Opportunities Overseas
Russia India S. Africa Brazil UAE United States Canada United Kingdom Australia Malaysia Japan IM P A C
T •Steady flow of foreign professionals and migrants returning back home to fill vacancies for CXO positions •Salary on par with developed countries (in terms of purchasing power) and even more benefits
•2 million BPO- KPO jobs for foreign nationals from China, Poland, Philippines,
High Low
Degree of NRIs and Overseas Chinese returning to Homeland (Reverse Brain Drain)
High Low
Degree of Indians and Chinese living abroad
1.69 2.56 2.1 1.2
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Note: Gen Y : Population between 15 – 34 Years today
2010 World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2020 2020
6.83 Billion
7.55 Billion
Around 37% of Gen Y Population Will Live in India and China Alone
Around 37% of Gen Y Population Will Live in India and China Alone
World Population in 2020 : 2.56 Billion Population in Age Group 15 to 34 (currently Gen Y) – Important Customer of the Future
Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest and Lifestyle Personalization and Individualization Techno Savvy and Connected 24 X 7 Civic and Environmentally Friendly Demanding and Impatient – “Fast and the Furious”
Personalized Search and News
Social Networking Profiles
Personalized Products Gaming Gizmos Smart Phones Facebook-on-the Move Microblogs Eco- Transport
Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Instead of Plastic)
Paperless Banking
Instant Text Messaging
Instant Chat
Speed Oriented Gaming (Car Racing)
New Satellites Launched By 2020: Over 900 Satellites to Be Launched Globally This Decade Creating Multiple Innovative Applications
GNSS Enabled Applications:
•Navigation (Civil, Military) •Broadband Internet and
Wireless Network •GNSS based medical monitoring and drug delivery
system
•Automated guidance of machines, real-time structure
monitoring, logistics and site management
GNSS Enabled Applications: •Navigation (Civil, Military)
•Broadband Internet and Wireless Network •GNSS based medical monitoring and drug delivery
system
•Automated guidance of machines, real-time structure
monitoring, logistics and site management
By 2020, there will be approximately
927 Satellites (Communication – 405; Earth Observation – 151; Navigation – 85; Reconnaissance – 212 and R&D
75)
By 2020, there will be approximately 927 Satellites (Communication – 405;
Earth Observation – 151; Navigation – 85; Reconnaissance – 212 and R&D
75)
Automobile Navigation and Intelligent
Automobile Navigation and Intelligent
Galileo - intended to provide more precise measurementsthan GPS
or GLONASS
China developing Beidou
Galileo - intended to provide more precise measurementsthan GPS
or GLONASS China developing
Beidou
Commercial market will be driven by broadcast; Mobile
Satellite Services (MSS); voice and data applications, bundling
Commercial market will be driven by broadcast; Mobile
Satellite Services (MSS); voice and data applications, bundling
World War 3 : With Advancement in Technology, Information Warfare to be the Next Domain of Conflict
Space
Photographic Satellites, GPS, Communications, Ballistic Missile Defence, Signals, Astronauts
Air
ISR Platforms, Combat Aircraft, Transport, Helicopters, Maritime Surveillance, Communications, Airmen
Naval Combat Platforms, Communications, ISR, Transport, Sailors Land Combat Vehicles, Transport, Communications, Soldiers Information Environment
Future RoboSlave: Pervasive Robotic Technology in 2020 That Will “Act as a Slave” in Everyday Life
Robots To Help With Strategic Planning and Business Robots for Companionship
Robots as Pets Robots for
Household Chores Robots to Wait on Hand and Foot Robots as Waiters Robots as Nannies
Artificial Intelligence and Robotics: Future Machine Technology With Multiple Applications
Robotic Industrial Applications in 2020
Welding
Material Handling
Drilling Robots in Space Medical Robots Performing Low Invasive Surgery
Transportation Robots Military Robots Packaging
Virtual World 2020: 3D Simulated Environment for Interaction and Experience Impacting Personal Mobility
Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try
Products without leaving their homes Products without leaving their homes
Virtual Classes and Virtual Classes and Laboratories and Daily 3D Laboratories and Daily 3D
Field Trips Field Trips
to Different Countries and to Different Countries and
Planets Planets
Virtual Surgeries Virtual Surgeries and Medical Training
and Medical Training Virtual Business ConferencesVirtual Business Conferences
Social Networking: 3D Avatars Social Networking: 3D Avatars
Enabling People to Lead Enabling People to Lead
Multiple Lives Multiple Lives
“Innovating To ZERO”: Snapshot of a “Zero Concept” World in 2020
Emerging Technologies Innovating to Zero Breaches of Security, Zero Accidents, Zero Fatalities and Zero Emissions in 2020
Zero Emissions from Cars Zero Accidents Zero Breaches of Security Zero Crime Zero Waste/ Emissions from Factories Complete Recyclability from Households (Cradle to Cradle Concept) Zero Defects Zero Debts
Possible Zero Emission Technologies in Power Generation
-Innovating Toward Reducing CO
2Emissions in 2020
Solar PV Cells Wind Energy
Travelling Wave Reactor (TWR) Third Generation Bio Fuels (Algae and
Exotic Bio Fuels)
Geothermal Energy Ocean Energy To Account for 1,900,000 MW of electricity production in 2020
Capacity of Solar Power to Increase from 21,540 MW in 2020 to 630,000
MW in 2040 Wide deployment of TWRs could enable projected global stockpiles of
depleted uranium to sustain 80% of the world’s population at U.S. per
capita energy usages for over a millennium Share of Geothermal Electricity in total electricity produced in 2020 is 1.5% “INNOVATING TO ZERO!”
By 2022, algae biofuels will be the largest biofuel category overall,
accounting for 40 billion of the estimated 109 billion gallons of biofuels
produced.
To supply approximately 10 percent of the world's electricity needs by 2020
Moscow Nizhny Novgorod St. Petersburg Yekaterinburg Novosibirsk Krasnoyarsk Irkutsk Khabarovsk Vladivostok
Integration of the Trans Siberian Rail into Eurasian Rail Network Will Result in Industrial and Business Hubs Along the Railroad
Yekaterinburg
Severka Development of Trans-Siberian railroad
will have significant socio economic and business impact to Russia
●Astrakhan Kiev ● Kaliningrad Minsk ●Helsinki ● Berezoviy Verhnya Pyshma Koltsovo Shyrokaya Rechka ●
ITC North South
Trans-Siberian Railway Pan European N 2 Pan European N 9 Baikal-Amur Mainline (Warsaw, Berlin) (Bucharest, Aleksandrupolis) Sredneuralsk
High Speed Rail to Come to US : Overview of Future High Speed Rail Projects in US
California to connect Bay Area with LA through an ambitious $42bn program with construction starting in 2 years Impact to Personal Mobility
1.Air travel will diminish rapidly between the high speed rail link cities 2.Train operators could start offering
integrated transport e.g. Car sharing
3.Will take congestion off highways, people will drive less long distance
4.Attractive cities for car sharing
5.Small city car sales will grow in these cities
In almost all countries worldwide, per capita healthcare spending is rising faster than per capita income.
No country can spend an ever-rising share of its output on health care, indefinitely. Spending growth must If Current Trends Hold, By 2050 Health Care Spending Will Almost Double Claiming 20% – 30% Of GDP For Some Economies
$2,884 $3,647 $2,493 $2,665 $2,451 $2,693 $2,337 $2,527 $2,110 $2,614 $1,927 $2,469 $2,371 $1,938 $1,927 $1,829 $1,609 $3,517 $717 $1,684 $854 $914 $680 $989 $760 $1,018 $494 $1,165 $449 $352 $593 $431 $514 $646 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000
Private Per Capita Spending (2007) Public Per Capita Spending (2007)
Spending as % of GDP (2007) Estimated Spending as % of GDP in 2050
Unsustainable
Unsustainable
Levels!!!
Health Economics Dictate a Shift in Spending – Away From Treating and Towards Predicting, Diagnosing and Monitoring
Healthcare Spending by Type of Activity
Predict, 5% Predict, 9% Predict, 22% Diagnose, 15% Diagnose, 19% Diagnose, 27% Treat, 70% Treat, 60% Treat, 35% Monitor, 10% Monitor, 12% Monitor, 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2007 2012 2025
Overview of Next Top 10 Trends
Women Empowerment and Women CEOsPower to the Middle Class
Reverse Brain Drain and CXO Positions in Developing Economies
Women Empowerment and Women CEOs Power to the Middle Class
Reverse Brain Drain and CXO Positions in Developing Economies
Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers New Shores: Emerging Outsourcing Hotspots
Future Global 500 Companies by Region New Trade Zones
Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers New Shores: Emerging Outsourcing Hotspots
Future Global 500 Companies by Region New Trade Zones
SMART Clouds: The Next in Cloud Computing
Future of Consumer Electronics Wireless Intelligence
Future Broadband Applications Innovative Technologies of the Future:
SMART Clouds: The Next in Cloud Computing
Future of Consumer Electronics Wireless Intelligence
Future Broadband Applications Innovative Technologies of the Future: S O C IA L T E C H N O L O G Y
Global Power Generation Trends
Global Power Generation Trends
E N E R G Y E C O N O M Y Future Investment in Infrastructure : Power, Water and Transport
Future Investment in Infrastructure : Power, Water and Transport
New Business Models
New Business Models
IN F R A S T R U C T U R E B U S IN E S S S M A R T F A C T O R Y
Factory of the Future: SMART and GREEN
Factory of the Future: SMART and GREEN
From Fat to Fit: Health, Wellness and Well Being
From Fat to Fit: Health, Wellness and Well Being
H E A L T H & W E L L N E S S
Healthcare, Chemicals, Energy Environment, Automotive Aerospace and Defence ICT, Building Technologies Measurement and
Instrumentation
Healthcare, Chemicals, Energy Environment, Automotive Aerospace and Defence ICT, Building Technologies Measurement and Instrumentation IN D U S T R Y
Key Strategic Conclusions
1. Mega trends are connected and inter-wined which suggests “synergetic” opportunities between them
2. It is important to understand the eco-system of the mega-trend and the elements of the value chain which have most profitability
3. All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering scalable opportunities
4. These forces are changing rapidly and bringing new competencies into play at half the life-cycle speed of the past decade
5. Organisations’ need “Mega Trend” champions and teams within their organisation structure to best exploit the opportunities
Workshop
Workshop Objectives and Agenda
A
Workshop Aims:
•To present and familiarize audience with F&S Mega Trends
•To evaluate growth
opportunities by identifying impact on your industry, region, market, product,
technology, and personal life
WORKSHOP AGENDA (2 Hours 30 Minutes)
30 Mins: Introduction and Summary of Mega
Trends
2 Hours: Workshop
30 Mins: Brainstorming and Completion of
Templates (Exercise 1 -2)
30 Mins: Discussion of Opportunities (Exercise
3)
30 Mins: Presentation by 2 to 3 Selected
Teams
15 Mins: Wrap up
From Macro to Micro: How To Take Mega Trends from
Information to Analysing New Opportunities
Sub Trend
A Sub Layer of Trends that Has Wide Ranging Impact
Mega Trend
Selected Trends That Impact Your Business
And Markets Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs Impact on Future Product/ Technology Impact to Your Industry
Visualizing The Roadmap Of These Critical Forces Through
Scenario Building and Macro Economic Forecasts
Example: Urbanization, Satellites
Example: Three concepts of urbanization will emerge: megacities, mega regions and
mega corridors. Smart Cities. Civilian satellites means high speed broadband, wireless and
4G and free wi-fi in public places/cities
Example: New Product Opportunity - New Mega City
Cars, Car sharing, New Technology Opportunities –
Connected car , e.g. Internet Radio
Example: Mega City electric cars with small
turning radius, autonomous parking in busy cities, Facebook on
wheels, seamless switching from home to car
Example: People in future will need “personal mobility” not necessarily cars to commute to
work. This will lead to need for integrated mobility combining all forms of transport
including cars
Workshop Steps
S1
S3 S2
Workshop Exercises
Exercise 1 Exercise 2 Exercise 3 Exercise 4
(Home Work)
Each Team will Complete the Following Exercises
Sample Exercise Templates to
be Completed
Ex. 1 Ex. 2 Ex. 3
(Identify Top 10 Mega Trends)
Impact on BU (Automotive) Impact on Region Growth Opportunities : Product & Technology
1. Mega Cities • Polarization of Passenger Cars Sizes
• Creation of Demand for Small cars and
City Electric Cars
• Mega Cities Will Give Rise to Multi-Modal Mobility creating a market for mobility integrators
• Integrated Mobility and On-Demand
Solutions will rise
• Market for Sustainable Car-Sharing will Evolve
• BRIC Countries to become
major sales powerhouse for Vehicles
• Cities from Developing
Economies will witness growth in use of private vehicles
• Mega Cities in Developed
Economies will witness reduction of private vehicle
• Moving toward Greener Cities
will lead to adoption of more Eco-Technologies (EV)
• Down Sizing of Engines,
Vehicle Weight Reduction,
• New technologies - Turbo
Chargers, Start-Stop Systems, Stop and go
systems in cities, Low turning radius cars, Internet radio in cars
2. High Speed Rail • Transit Oriented Development
• Air travel will diminish rapidly between the high speed rail link cities
• Train operators could start offering integrated transport e.g. Car sharing • Will take congestion off highways, people
will drive less long distance • Attractive cities for car sharing
• Small city car sales will grow in these cities
3 4
Group Name : Industry :
For Questions and More Information
Sarwant Singh Partner
Practice Director, Automotive and Transportation
Direct: + 44 207 915 7843 Mobile: +44 7961 771545
