Forecasting the Icelandic business cycle using vector autoregressive models

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CENTRAL BANK OF ICELAND WORKING PAPERS No. 36

Forecasting the Icelandic business cycle

using vector autoregressive models

by

Bruno Eklund

September 2007

CENTRAL BANK OF ICELAND Economics Department

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Central Bank of Iceland Working Papers are published by the Economics Department of the Central Bank of Iceland. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the Central Bank of Iceland.

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(11)

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(13)

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(14)

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(15)

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(16)

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(17)

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(18)

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(19)

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(20)

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(21)

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(22)

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(23)

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(24)

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(25)

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Forecasting the Icelandic business cycle using vector autoregressive models