Quantifying the risk of the connected and autonomous vehicle

‘Quantifying the risk of the connected and autonomous

vehicle’

‘Connected and autonomous vehicles – safe, cyber-secure, private? How confident are you?’

Automotive and Transport SIG event 1st_{October 2015}

Andrew Miller

Thatcham Research

Credentials: Experts in Vehicle Safety, Security and repair

• Not-for-profit automotive reasarch organisation established for over 45 years

• Owned by (83% of) UK

Motor Insurers

• Backed by the

Association of British Insurers (ABI) and Lloyds Market Association (LMA)

Autonomous cars - Science Fact?

 Google are a new powerful player

 A mapping and data company with aspirations to develop their data footprint into mobility

Integrated connectivity – the next market change

 It will be essential for every carmaker to provide in-car connectivity – but a viable business model is difficult to predict

 E&Y estimate that approximately 104 million new cars are expected to have some form of connectivity by 2025

 US sales of 16 million new cars with embedded telematics by 2025

 EU, Japan and BRIC nations regulating and developing propositions for connectivity

 Integrated telematics are being driven by smartphone use and safety regulations

Hands-free capability and integrated sat-nav Comprehensive integrated connectivity The vehicle is an integrated web node – part of the internet of things Now

Tesla: electrifying innovation right now

 Equipped with an embedded 3G HSPA+ cellular module: has more in

common with a tablet or smart-phone than a conventional car.

 Virtual instrument cluster and the premium media control unit:

 The resolution of the display is 1,920 x 1,200, again exceeding the norm for cars, same supplier as Apple.

 NVIDIA Tegra 3, 1.4-gigahertz quad-core processor similar to smartphone and tablet designs.

 The main ‘head unit’ has 5,000 discrete components—1,000 more than

the highest-end infotainment unit previously analysed.

 The virtual instrument cluster and the premium media control unit are

estimated to be twice the cost of the highest-end infotainment unit on other vehicles.

Opportunity: Vehicle based ‘First Notification of Loss’

DAMAGE ASSESSMENT

& PARTS LIST ANALYTICS REPAIR TIMES & METHODS INSTANT FNOL CUSTOMER SATISFACTION & RETENTION RECOVERY 999 EMERGENCY SERVICES SCHEDULING KEY-2-KEY EFFICENCIES GAINS INSURER DATA CENTRES PI DAMAGES ASSESSMENT REHABILITATION INJURY MANAGEMENT RESERVING Operational Management Repair Management THEFT DAMAGES ASSESSMENT RECOVERY THEFT MANAGEMENT PI Management Theft Management

Tesla: electrifying innovation now

Tesla Model S Autopilot

Autopilot combines a forward looking camera, radar, and 360 degree sonar sensors with real time traffic updates to automatically drive Model S on the open road and in dense stop and go traffic. Changing lanes becomes as simple as a tap of the turn signal. When you arrive at your destination, Model S will both detect a parking spot and automatically park itself. Standard equipment safety features are constantly monitoring stop signs, traffic signals and pedestrians, as well as for unintentional lane changes.

Autopilot features are progressively enabled over time with software updates. The current software version is 6.1, adding traffic-aware cruise control, forward collision warning, and camera-enabled automatic high/low beam headlights

The Autonomous Car Timeline

International Categorisation of Autonomy

0 No Automation 1 Assisted 2 Partial Automation 3 Conditional Automation 4 High Automation 5 Full Automation

1:ACC, LKA, BLIS, AEB

2: (2014 on) Queue Assistant, Parking Assistance …… 3: (2017 on) Super-cruise ……

4: (2019 on) Automated Driving, Valet park 5: (2025) Robot Taxi 0: LDW, ESC

Human driver monitors driving environment Automated driving system monitors driving environment

(System functionality improvements)

The Autonomous Car

Levels of Autonomy and Required Technologies

0 No 1 Assisted Automation 2 Partial Automation 3 Conditional Automation 4 High Automation 5 Full Automation

New Car Sales %: Assisted Driving

Fleet %: Assisted Driving

New Car Sales %: Partial Autonomy

Fleet %: Partial Autonomy

Fleet %: High Autonomy

New Car Sales %: High Autonomy

Fleet %: Full Autonomy

New Car Sales %: Full Autonomy

2019 Mercedes, Volvo, Tesla

The Autonomous Car

Insurance Model for the Autonomous Car: Premium Value & Personal to Product Liability

Halving of insurance premiums

Premium breakdown:

Person: 70%, Car: 30% Premium breakdown: Person: 50%, Car: 50%

Premium breakdown: Person: 30%, Car: 70%

80% reduction in premium value due to benefits of autonomous vehicles

P rem iu m Val u e

NHTSA, Autonomous Vehicle Seminar, Washington DC, October 2012 Swiss Re, The autonomous car seminar,

September 2014 Product Insurance through ‘Bundled’ insurance P rem iu m D istrib u tio n 2019: Mercedes, Volvo, Tesla 2025:

Google autonomous car Personal Insurance 0 No 1 Assisted Automation 2 Partial Automation 3 Conditional Automation 4 High Automation 5 Full Automation

UK Insurance Value - 2013

Source: Thatcham modelling using member data & UK EDR data

Claim Type Estimated Damage and PI Claims Value 2013 (£Million) % 0-10 10-30 30-50 50+

Parking Low Medium High

Car to car rear £2,450 32% £0 £1,550 £550 £350

Junction £1,150 15% £0 £0 £750 £400 Single vehicle £1,150 15% £400 £350 £250 £150 Reversing £700 9% £700 £0 £0 £0 Head on £400 6% £0 £0 £100 £350 Parking £350 4% £350 £0 £0 £0 VRU £350 4% £0 £100 £250 £0 Lane change £250 4% £0 £0 £50 £200 Other £750 10% £250 £200 £150 £100 Total £7,550 100% £1,700 £2,200 £2,100 £1,550

AEB Testing & Real World Effect

Testing _{Real World}

Improved Golf high speed performance may explain additional third party effect

*All Crashes

* *

• Primary objectives: To provide insurers with an indication of the relative risk represented by an individual vehicle when first launched onto the UK market.

• Secondary Objective: To influence the design of vehicles in order to reduce the risk and keep premium increases to a minimum. Assessment composition: • Cost of parts from impact • Repair times from impact • Bumper test

• AEB (Autonomous Emergency Breaking) test

• Vehicle Security test • Cost of basket of parts • New car price (on the road) • Performance: 0-60mph & top

speed

• Vehicle kerb weight (kg)

Fiat 500 Pop Mini One

Group 5U Group 12E

Honda Jazz SE 1.2

Ford Fiesta Style 1.2

Group 14E Group 6E

Barrier Front Impact

Grou p 1

• Thatcham provide initial group indication

• Grouping Panel (insurer members) final decision • Thatcham publish advisory

ratings to the industry

Grou p 50

Euro NCAP: 38% AEB Effectiveness

• Euro NCAP see a 38%

overall reduction in real-world, rear-end

crashes for vehicles fitted

with low speed AEB

compared to a sample of equivalent vehicles with no AEB

• Thatcham Research – now a world leading reference in AEB and

ADAS system functionality and effectiveness

AEB & Frontal Impacts with Pedestrians

Testing to be introduced into Euro NCAP 2016 • UK DfT reports 398 pedestrian fatalities in 2013 • 13% of all road casualties

Car-to-Pedestrian CP CP1 Unobscured nearside walking pedestrian CP2 Obscured walking nearside pedestrian CP3 Unobscured farside pedestrian

AEB & Frontal Impacts with Cyclists

crashes 9% 29% 22%

deaths 23% 22% 2%

• UK DfT reports long term fall in cyclist deaths, fluctuating 100-120 in last 6 years • 109 cyclist deaths in 2013; 11% of all road casualties

• Pedal cycle traffic increasing: 13% higher than 2005-9 average

AEB group developing testing for most common collisions

Aftermarket technology

• If the market demand develops for autonomised travel it is possible that suppliers will develop aftermarket products

• Cruise RP1 - £6000

ADAS Building Blocks

Thatcham Influence on Testing Procedures – towards Automated Driving

Anti-Lock Brakes Stability Control Electric Power Steering Blind Spot Monitoring Pedestrian Detection Parking Aid Traffic Sign Recognition Lane Departure Warning Forward Collision Warning GPS ACC / Queue Assist Lane Keeping Lane Centering Auto Parallel

Parking Navigation

Rear-Collision Mitigation

AEB - City AEB - Urban Overtaking Assist AEB – Pedestrian/Cyclist Intersection Assist Automated Highway Driving Automated City Driving Automated Valet Parking Autonomous Emergency Steering (AES) V2X Automated Driving (Trained) Automated Driving

(Destination) Autonomous Driving

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Drive Me Gothenburg

• Test cars are now able to handle lane following, speed adaption and

merging traffic all by themselves • Final ‘Drive Me’ cars will be able to

drive the whole test route in highly autonomous mode

• Complex network of sensors, cloud-based positioning systems and

intelligent braking and steering technologies

• 2017: trials with 100 customers driving • First near term Automated Driving

Claim of the Future

Claims trends over the next 10 years?

Car

of the

Future

Crash

of the

Future

Driver

of the

Future

Repair

of the

Future

• Personal injury cost • Accident damage/cost

• Frequency • Severity • Cost

• Skill level under manual driving

• Interaction with ADAS • Personal liability

Claim of

the Future

Re-distribution of Crash Severity

Car-to-Car Rear 2015-2025

Source: Kullgren A, Dose-response models and EDR data for assessment of injury risk and effectiveness studies, Proceedings of IRCOBI conference, Bern, Switzerland, 2008. Strandroth J, et al . Head-on collisions between passenger cars and heavy goods vehicles: Injury risk functions and benefits of Autonomous Emergency Braking , Proceedings of IRCOBI conference, 2012.

Severe = £540m

Cosmetic Moderate Severe

Cosmetic Moderate Severe

Severe = £140m

Illustrative prediction for AEB effect on Rear End Crashes

Delta V = change of energy in a crash (not approach speed). Simple e.g. car travelling at 30km/h hits a stationary car; delta V is approx. 15km/h; complex calculation allows for many factors including vehicle stiffness, rebound etc.

Cosmetic Moderate Severe

2015 update of Thatcham 2007 damage pattern study

Current crash severity distribution from EDR data

Claims distribution Shift through AEB avoidance & mitigation effect

15k delta-V shift left based on City LIDAR performance in AEB tests

AEB Reduces Injuries

Whiplash injury reduction is at least equal to the level of avoidance

• BAU – 550,000 whiplash claims annually

• Total claim cost £2bn

• Potential savings

• 2015: £22m

• 2020: £130m

• 2025: £357m

Illustrative prediction for AEB effect on whiplash claims

Avoidance: 1% Avoidance: 7% Avoidance: 18%

Addressing Crash Types: What Next?

Car to Car Rear

Single Vehicle Other Reversing Junction Head on Cyclist Lane Change Pedestrian Parking • AEB effect on Car-to-Car Rear

• But what about other crash types?

• ADAS systems will address other crashes too…

• What about Automated Driving – here by 2020?

Damage claim distribution from Insurer member data

‘Quantifying the risk of the connected and autonomous

vehicle’

‘Connected and autonomous vehicles – safe, cyber-secure, private? How confident are you?’

Automotive and Transport SIG event 1st_{October 2015}

Andrew Miller