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Wireless Network Traffic Worldwide: Forecasts and Analysis 2013–2018
Description: The relatively low cost of small cells opens the way for less constrained growth in mobile data, but demand-side complications and Wi-Fi disruptions mean that there will be no easy correlation between capacity and volume.
The growth in volumes of mobile data traffic slowed in 2012, but remains strong in most regions of the world. Wi-Fi traffic is also continuing to significantly increase. LTE and LTE-Advanced offer increased, lower-cost capacity that could enable mobile operators to pull traffic back from Wi-Fi.
This Report provides:
- 5-year forecasts of wireless data traffic in all eight regions of the world and in 22 selected countries - an analysis of the key trends in, and drivers and inhibitors of, data traffic
- an assessment of the enablers of future capacity on wireless networks and the cost of supplying that capacity
- an overview of the trends in private and public usage and their effect on the use of mobile and Wi-Fi connectivity.
Geographical coverage
Data is provided for the following regions. - North America
- Western Europe
- Central and Eastern Europe - Developed Asia–Pacific - Emerging Asia–Pacific - Latin America
- Middle East and North Africa - Sub-Saharan Africa
Data coverage
The following major KPIs are included in the data annex that accompanies this report. Mobile data
Total volume and average usage for: - handsets
- mid-screen devices - USB modems and routers - M2M.
Traffic split by public and private usage. Wi-Fi data
Total volume and average usage for: - handsets
- mid-screen devices, split by mobile-connected and Wi-Fi-only devices - laptops (public Wi-Fi connectivity only).
Traffic split by public and private usage.
Contents: Slide No.
7. Executive summary and key results of forecast
46.1% worldwide for 2012–2017, and 43.6% for 2013–2018
9. Growth rates in mobile data traffic in most countries were lower in 2012 than in 2011 10. Major changes in our forecasts since 2012
11. The most meaningful analysis is based on the evolution of transport costs, not on the evolution of devices and usage
12. We forecast large variations between regions and, in general, lower mobile data traffic growth in developed markets
13. Some of the largest national variations in forecast growth rates stem from the established levels of usage in individual markets
14. The proportion of mobile data traffic that is generated by handsets will not increase dramatically at a worldwide level
15. By 2018, 19% of SIM-enabled devices will be 4G and these will generate 79% of traffic
16. By 2018, the volume of Wi-Fi traffic generated by handsets and midscreen devices will be five times higher than mobile traffic on these devices
17. Mobile data traffic will account for only about 5% of Internet data traffic by 2018 18. Drivers and inhibitors: capacity and cost side
19. Network- and customer-side factors determine mobile data traffic volumes 20. Capacity headroom on mobile networks grows in three ways
21. Pure spectral efficiency gains are likely to become more modest 22. Spectrum availability and bandwidth during the next 5 years
23. Capacity shortages are essentially local affairs, and the spectrum crisis is a myth
24. Small cells will increase capacity dramatically in the most congested cells, but the effect is diluted across whole countries
25. Small cells reduce the incremental cost of a gigabyte but the effect will probably be diluted unless operating costs can be reduced
26. Cellular network traffic will in general adapt to capacity growth, but there are demand-side complications 27. Drivers and inhibitors: demand side
28. Active SIMs in personal devices will outstrip the world population by 2016
29. Average 3G/4G handset usage will accelerate towards the end of the forecast period in developed markets
30. The fastest rates of growth in subscriber numbers tend to coincide with the greatest dilution in the growth of average usage
31. Mobile broadband usage shows diverging trends in the more-developed markets
32. The importance of USB modem and router data traffic is related to fixed broadband pricing and availability in emerging markets
33. Tablets and other mid-screen devices remain a small part of the mobile traffic mix, but a very rapidly expanding part of Wi-Fi and fixed Internet
34. Social factors affect mobile data usage levels 35. Wi-Fi and ‘offloading’
36. Geographical concentration of wireless traffic is creating a battleground between mobile operators’ small cells and fixed operators’ Wi-Fi
37. Wi-Fi ‘offload’ is a misleading term
38. The proportion of traffic generated at home is higher for handset data than for voice
39. The cellular and Wi-Fi share of at-home and in-office handset data usage will vary greatly between regions
40. Public Wi-Fi is increasingly driven by fixed and cable operator strategy rather than by MNO offloading 41. Public Wi-Fi will take a slightly higher share of traffic and then plateau, and traffic will become skewed to larger-screen devices
42. In China, public Wi-Fi has developed in a unique way 43. Market definition
44. Data sources and methodology 45. Definition of geographical regions [1] 46. Definition of geographical regions [2] 47. About the author
List of figures
Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
Figure 2: Mobile data traffic, developed and emerging markets, 2012–2017 (2012 forecast) and 2012–2018 (2013 forecast)
Figure 3: Growth in mobile data traffic, by region, 2011–2012
Figure 4: Growth in mobile data traffic, by country, 2010–2011 and 2011–2012 Figure 5: Mobile data traffic growth multiples, by region, 2013–2018
Figure 7: Average monthly mobile data usage levels per head of population, 2012, and CAGR for mobile data, by country, 2012–2018
Figure 8: Mobile data traffic by device type, and handsets’ share of traffic, worldwide, 2012–2018 Figure 9: Handsets’ share of mobile data traffic, by region, 2011–2018
Figure 10: 4G devices’ share of mobile data traffic, by region, 2011–2018
Figure 11: Proportion of devices that are 4G, and 4G devices’ share of mobile data traffic, by region, 2018 Figure 12: Wireless data traffic generated by handsets and mid-screen devices, and proportion of traffic generated in a private location, worldwide, 2012–2018
Figure 13: Mobile data as proportion of Internet traffic, by region, 2011–2018 Figure 14: The three dimensions of mobile network capacity
Figure 15: Average spectral efficiency by technology
Figure 16: Typical spectrum refarming in Europe, 2013 and 2018
Figure 17: Bandwidth gain for a typical European country through new and refarmed spectrum, 2012–2018 Figure 18: Typical small-cell deployment, large European country, by geotype, 2018
Figure 19: Site and capacity multiples for a typical small-cell deployment in a large European country Figure 20: Typical incremental cost per gigabyte for macrocells and small cells, developed market Figure 21: Bandwidth growth multiples, typical developed markets, 2012–2018
Figure 22: Mobile connections, by type, worldwide, 2011–2018
Figure 23: Mobile connections, by device generation, worldwide, 2011–2018
Figure 24: Average monthly mobile data usage per 3G/4G handset, selected developed markets, 2012 Figure 25: Average monthly mobile data usage by handset technology generation, developed markets, 2012–2018
Figure 26: Illustrative mobile data usage and smartphone penetration rates
Figure 27: Illustrative average mobile data usage and year-on-year growth rates for usage and traffic Figure 28: Average mobile broadband usage 2012, and rate of growth in average usage 2011–2012, Europe Figure 29: Mid-screen devices’ share of mobile data traffic, and mobile networks’ share of mid-screen device traffic, developed markets, 2012–2018
Figure 30: Average hours not spent at work or travelling to work, and average monthly mobile data usage per head of population, 2012
Figure 31: Unique and competing or converging areas for fixed and mobile networks Figure 32: Schematic view of types of Wi-Fi offload – not to scale
Figure 33: Proportion of handset wireless data traffic generated at home or place of work, by region, 2011–2018
Figure 34: Cellular networks’ share of handset data traffic that is generated at home or place of work, by region, 2011–2018
Figure 35: Public wireless data traffic by network type, developed markets, 2011–2018 Figure 36: Public Wi-Fi traffic by device type, developed markets, 2011–2018
Figure 37: China Mobile’s wireless data traffic by network type, 2010–2012 Figure 38: Public wireless data by network type, China, 2011–2018 Figure 39: Regional breakdown used in this report
Figure 40: Regional breakdown used in this report
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