A LOC AL SNAPSHOT
S U M M E R B U L L E T I N • J U N E 2 0 1 2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 135 Elections 165 Elections 131 Elections 107 Elections • $3,228,447,000 79 Elections • $3,149,603,033School Bonds that Have Carried in Texas
$6,164,297,085
2012 – TURNING POINT?
GrowthintheHoustonMSAjobmarkethasresultedin
morejobsintheareathaneverbefore.
Realestateinventoriesaregoingdown.
Housingispickingup.
EmploymentforecastshowsConstructionIndustrywithan
8%increaseinhiringfor2013comparedto2012.
Moneysupplyisup.
WiththetidestartingtoswingwithagrowingHoustoneconomy,many School Districts will have to start talking and planning for their next SchoolBondProgram.Thismaybeascarythought,butthealternative couldbeworse.Intheseuncertaintimesdistrictsarefacingsomebig unknownswhichmakethedecision-makingprocessevenmoredifficult. OutcomeofSchoolfinancereform? FallElections? IsthegrowingHoustoneconomysustainable? Isthehousingbubblereallyover? WillGlobalissuesaffectHouston?EuroCrisis HowreliablearetheDemographicProjections? Whatlegislativechangesarestilltocome? CanweaccuratelypredictfutureConstructionCost? Everythingiscirclingaroundoneword-“Confidence”-inthedirection of our economy and government. It is evident that businesses and peoplearebecomingmoreconfidentwiththeHoustonMSAbasedon therecentindicatorsillustratedinthisBulletin. WiththeturningofthepagetoamorevibrantHoustonMSA,itwilltake timeforSchoolDistrictstobenefitfromthisgrowth.Businesseshaveto growandpeoplehavetospendmoneyforthetaxrevenuestoincrease andfiltertoourSchools. Bepatientandstartplanning.TRENDS
Demographicsarechanging.(SeePASAreportpage3) CONSTRUCTIONCOSTSSTARTINGTOINCREASEwith materialandfuelcostsbeingthebiggestdrivers.Theprice increaserangesfromafewpercenttodoubledigitsdepending onthetrade. Schoolsarestillfeelingthebudgetcutstocompoundtheissue. OverhalftheschooldistrictsinTexasareinvolvedinlawsuits againsttheStateonSchoolFinancing. EnergyEfficiencyinSchoolsbecomingabigtargetforbattling budgetcuts.HOUSTON HOUSING ON THE RISE
INDICATORS:
Salesvolumeisup7.8%comparedtolastyear,
10thconsecutivemonthlyincrease
Totalpropertysalesareup7.4%fromayearago
Foreclosuresalesaredown12.8%yearoveryear
5.6monthsinventoryofsingle-familyhomesisthe
lowestlevelsinceDecember2008andcompares
favorablytothenationalaverageof6.4months
Source: Houston Area Realtors
Mar 2011 Mar 2012 % Change
West Texas Intermediate
Spot Market Price $93.43 $103.00 10.2%
Henry Hub Natural
Gas Price $4.12 $2.36 -42.7%
Source: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration
OIL & NATURAL GAS INDICATORS
$11,148,510,479
79 Elections • $1,599,164,995
May - 44 Elections • $634,810,000
$8,686,683,101
2012 Elementary School Cost Data
Square Foot Size Average Cost/SF
92,000 - 114,000 SF
$135.00/SF
S U M M E R B U L L E T I N • J U N E 2 0 1 2
HOUSTON’S ECONOMY IS
GROWING
Houston MSA Mar 2011 YTD Mar 2012 YTD % Change Construction Contracts
Source: McGraw-Hill Construction
Residential
$1.15 B
$1.58 B
37%
Non-Residential
$944 M
$811 M
-14%
YTD Total
$2.01 B
$2.4 B
14%
City of Houston Construction Permits
Source: GHP
March YTD 2011 2012 % Change
Residential
$230.3 M $354.6 M
54.0%
Non-Residential
$457.2 M $823.8 M
80.2%
YTD Total
$687.5 M $1.18 B
71.4%
PMI - Houston Indicators Index
Source: Purchasing Managers Index Monthly
Mar 2011 Mar 2012 % Change
Monthly
59.9
59.1
-1.3%
YTD Average
58.4
59.4
1.7%
ThePMIisaleadingindicatorofeconomicconditionsforHouston. An index number below 50 represents a contracting economy; readings above 50 indicate an expanding economy. The PMI has been above 50 since October, 2009 which indicates a continued expansioninHouston’seconomy.
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, March 2012
10
5
0
Houston 8.4% Texas 8.2% National 9.0%Unemployment Rate
U.S. Employment
Houston MSA Jobs
March
Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Jobs
Houston Employment Forecast
Next 12 Months (April ‘12-March ‘13) vs. Prior 12 Months
Houston MSA Population Forecasts
Scenario 2000-2007 Migration
S U M M E R B U L L E T I N • J U N E 2 0 1 2
Suburban growth marches forward. For the last five years (which represents the duration of the economic downturn), the Houston area school districts benefiting the most from population growth are all to the west and north (see map bottom right).
Growth Epicenters in the Next 12 Months
The slump in the housing market has already bottomed out in the Houstonarea,withforeclosuresdecliningby19%sinceMarchoflast year,andMLShomesalesup8%fromayearago.Newhomestartsare up26%this1stquarter,relativetothe1stquarterlastyear.
From a demographic perspective, the coming year will see an acceleration of housing and population growth in similar locations as the past five years. For example, to the west, Katy, Cy-Fair, and Lamarschooldistrictswillseeaslightriseintheircurrenthousingand population growth rates. To the north, the Klein and Conroe school districtsshouldhaveacceleratedgrowththisyearduetonewofficehubs inTheWoodlands,andasauxiliaryfirmsrelocateduetoExxonMobil’s futureofficecomplexonIH-45.
Baytown’s New Industrial Facilities
Industrial sites west of the Houston ShipChannelarebuilt-out–allowing the massive industrial parks and other targeted locations nearby in West Chambers County to be the sites for a new ethylene production facility (to be completed by Conoco Phillips in 2017), and for the new ExxonMobil and Bayer Material Scienceexpansions,andotheradded facilities.
Impacts of Transportation
Improvements
The rapid construction of the Grand Parkway between IH-10 and US 290 will open up a large number of already-planned residential developments, along with the need fornewcommercialenterprises.And, the recently available TXDOT funds fortheHoustonarea(~$450million) will be oriented to widening US 290 (and other US 290 improvements), and also oriented to SH 288 – the latter spawning further housing and population growth outward -- in Pearland,Alvin,andperhapsAngleton.
SCHOOL FINANCE UPDATE
MorethanhalfoftheschooldistrictsinTexas,representingroughly 3.5millionstudents–or75%oftheoveralltotal–havesignedonto suethestateoverthewayitfundspublicschools.
Butfewerthan500districtshaven’t.Manyofthosedistricts,already facingbudgetcuts,saytheyjustdon’thavetheresources.
Four of the lawsuits challenge the state on whether it has given enough money to schools. A fifth lawsuit has also been filed, not by school districts but by a group of parents who support charter schools.Itquestionshowthemoneythatthestategivestoschools isspent.
Lastweek,ajudgeindicatedthatatrialwouldprobablybegininearly Octoberandallowedthefirstfourlawsuitsfiledbyschooldistricts to be consolidated into one, according to the Austin American Statesman.Source: Texas Tribune, April 2012
La Marque ISD -740 Devers ISD 37 Dickinson ISD 1,580 Goose Creek CISD 1,382 Sweeny ISD -115 Hardin ISD -64 Liberty ISD -123 Dayton ISD -11 Stafford MSD 141 Santa Fe ISD 40 Hempstead ISD 105 Hull-Daisetta ISD -63 West Hardin County CISD -5 Damon ISD 32 Texas City ISD 97 Humble ISD 4,749 Bay City ISD -232
Big Sandy ISD 16 Boling ISD 71 Aldine ISD 5,469 Spring ISD 4,258 Brazos ISD 27 Splendora ISD 109 Katy ISD 11,213 Van Vleck ISD -38 Shepherd ISD 91 East Bernard ISD 23 Tomball ISD 2,001 Houston ISD 130 Galena Park ISD 586 Klein ISD 4,390 Deer Park ISD 420 El Campo ISD 105 Sealy ISD 89 New Caney ISD 2,522 La Porte ISD -43 Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD -17 Wharton ISD -198 Cypress-Fairbanks ISD 15,825
New Waverly ISD 75 Pearland ISD 2,961 Pasadena ISD 3,091 Willis ISD 809 Alief ISD -286 Spring Branch ISD 1,527 Conroe ISD 8,204 Brazosport ISD -624 Barbers Hill ISD 871 Crosby ISD 334 Cleveland ISD 232 Tarkington ISD -77 Huffman ISD 210 Anahuac ISD -224 Royal ISD 200 Huntsville ISD 23 Friendswood ISD 75 Sheldon ISD 1,490 Channelview ISD 416 North Forest ISD -2,019 Richards ISD 0 Clear Creek ISD 3,681 Livingston ISD -5 Montgomery ISD 1,202 Waller ISD 547 Magnolia ISD 1,485 Anderson-Shiro CISD 113 Hitchcock ISD 310 Fort Bend ISD 2,435 Columbia-Brazoria ISD -104 Danbury ISD -50 Alvin ISD 3,955 Angleton ISD -37 Needville ISD 49 Galveston ISD -2,008 Lamar CISD 4,461 Brenham ISD -14 Navasota ISD 15 Grimes San Jacinto Montgomery Liberty Waller Harris Austin Chambers Fort Bend Wharton Brazoria Matagorda Hardin 5-Year Change: 2006-07 to 2011-12
A b s o l u t e C h a n g e i n S c h o o l D i s t r i c t E n r o l l m e n t
HOUSTON
Source: Texas Education Agency, Public Education Information Management System Division
0 5 10 20Miles [ Counties Water Bodies School Districts <-100 -99 - 0 1 - 500 501 - 2,000 2,001 - 4,000 >4,000 La Marque ISD -740 Devers ISD 37 Dickinson ISD 1,580 Goose Creek CISD 1,382 Sweeny ISD -115 Hardin ISD -64 Liberty ISD -123 Dayton ISD -11 Stafford MSD 141 Santa Fe ISD 40 Hempstead ISD 105 Hull-Daisetta ISD -63 West Hardin County CISD -5 Damon ISD 32 Texas City ISD 97 Humble ISD 4,749 Bay City ISD -232
Big Sandy ISD 16 Boling ISD 71 Aldine ISD 5,469 Spring ISD 4,258 Brazos ISD 27 Splendora ISD 109 Katy ISD 11,213 Van Vleck ISD -38 Shepherd ISD 91 East Bernard ISD 23 Tomball ISD 2,001 Houston ISD 130 Galena Park ISD 586 Klein ISD 4,390 Deer Park ISD 420 El Campo ISD 105 Sealy ISD 89 New Caney ISD 2,522 La Porte ISD -43 Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD -17 Wharton ISD -198 Cypress-Fairbanks ISD 15,825
New Waverly ISD 75 Pearland ISD 2,961 Pasadena ISD 3,091 Willis ISD 809 Alief ISD -286 Spring Branch ISD 1,527 Conroe ISD 8,204 Brazosport ISD -624 Barbers Hill ISD 871 Crosby ISD 334 Cleveland ISD 232 Tarkington ISD -77 Huffman ISD 210 Anahuac ISD -224 Royal ISD 200 Huntsville ISD 23 Friendswood ISD 75 Sheldon ISD 1,490 Channelview ISD 416 North Forest ISD -2,019 Richards ISD 0 Clear Creek ISD 3,681 Livingston ISD -5 Montgomery ISD 1,202 Waller ISD 547 Magnolia ISD 1,485 Anderson-Shiro CISD 113 Hitchcock ISD 310 Fort Bend ISD 2,435 Columbia-Brazoria ISD -104 Danbury ISD -50 Alvin ISD 3,955 Angleton ISD -37 Needville ISD 49 Galveston ISD -2,008 Lamar CISD 4,461 Brenham ISD -14 Navasota ISD 15 Grimes San Jacinto Montgomery Liberty Waller Harris Austin Chambers Fort Bend Wharton Brazoria Matagorda Hardin
HOUSTON
Source: Texas Education Agency, Public Education Information Management System Division
0 5 10 20Miles [ Counties Water Bodies School Districts <-100 -99 - 0 1 - 500 501 - 2,000 2,001 - 4,000 >4,000
POPULATION AND HOUSING GROWTH GAME CHANGERS –
AND GROWTH EPICENTERS IN THE HOUSTON METRO AREA
BY: DR. PAT GUSEMAN, POPULATION AND SURVEY ANALYSTS
S U M M E R B U L L E T I N • J U N E 2 0 1 2
Lighting
OneofthebiggesttrendsinnewconstructionisLEDlighting.LEDhas made big advances over the past few years to the point where LED sitelightingandLEDcanlightsareasmartinvestment.Switchingout lampstohighefficientflorescentlampsareanotherlow-costmethodof savingenergythatmanyschoolsareemploying. Also,schoolsarelookingtobringmorenaturallightintotheclassroom. Tubulardaylightingdevicescanbeusedinbothnewconstructionand renovationtointroducenaturallight.Thesetubulardaylightingdevices canbecontrolledandevenshutoffwhentheclassroomneedstobe darkenedforpresentation.
Geothermal Heating and Cooling
Another popular trend that can be used for both new schools and renovations is geothermal heating and cooling. This method of “geoexchange”usestheconstanttemperatureoftheEarthtoheatand cool a building. While geothermal requires an up-front investment, thesystemcanpayforitselfviaenergysavingsinthreetofiveyears. Geothermalsystemsaresimpleandeasytooperate.
Summary
Knowingabuilding’senergybenchmarkisthefirststeptoinstitutingan energysavingsprogram.Thisallowsschoolpersonneltosetgoalsand determinewhichchangesineitherbehaviororequipmentneedtobe madetomeetthegoals.Also,demonstratingtostaffthathadtogive uptheirpersonalcoffeepotorwearasweaterintheclassroomthat theseactionsarehavingapositiveaffectisagreatwaytoreinforceand obtain‘buy-in’forthelow-hangingfruitbehaviors.1American Society of Heating, Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning Engineers,
Advanced Energy Design Guide, 2008.
2www.energystar.gov
As schools are squeezed by operational cost-cutting, many schools are looking to save money by reducing energy use. Not only does reducingenergyusesavemoneyforschooldistricts,itcanprovidean opportunitytointegrateenergysavingsintoclassroomcurriculum.
Benchmarking
Knowinghowmuchenergyyourschoolisusing(measuredinkBtu/sf yr)isthefirststepinanenergysavingsprogram.The“average”for Houston’sclimatezoneinaschooldesignedtomeetcodeis62kBtu/ sfyr.Whilethereareconsultingengineeringfirmsthatcanprovidethis analysis,schoolstaffcanutilizetheEnvironmentalProtectionAgency’s ENERGYSTARprogramandenterdataintothe“TargetFinder.”This willprovideasnapshotoftheschool’sEnergyUseIndex(EUI)expressed inkBtu/sfyr. The62kBtu/sfyrisan“average”andnewandrenovatedschoolsare demonstratingenergysavingof50to75percentlessthantheaverage, whichtranslatestolowerenergybills.Low-hanging Fruit
Institutingsystemsandcontrolstoreduceenergyusedoesn’tnecessarily meananinvestmentinlotsofexpensiveequipment.Manylocalschool boardsareconsideringformalpoliciestoreducetheuseofpersonal refrigerators,coffeepotsandspaceheatersintheclassrooms.While theseappliancesseeminnocuousasfarasenergyuse,whenmultiplied byseveralclassroomsinseveralschools,theycanproduceanoticeable increaseinenergyuse. Settingupcomputersonpowerstripsthatcanbeswitchedoffattheend ofthedayisanothersimplemethodofsavingenergy.Someschools are involving students in “energy” teams where students ensure that classroomlightsandcomputersareturnedoffattheendoftheday.Controls and Occupancy Sensors
Moredistrictsaretakingawayuserspacetemperatureadjustmentsand maintaining complete control at a central level. The schools’ have specificsetpointsforheatingandcooling.Buildingoccupantscan’t switchtocoolinginthewinterorheatinginthesummertoadjustroom temperature. Roomoccupancysensorsarebeingtiedintothebuildingautomation system(BAS).Whenaroomgoesunoccupied(forlunchorotherschool activity)duringanormallyoccupiedperiod,theclassroomoccupancy sensor is used to detect the condition and the room temperature is automatically set up two to four degrees. When motion is detected intheroom,thespacetemperatureissetbacktoitsnormaloccupied temperature.
Inthepast,ITdepartmentshavediscouragedshuttingdowncomputers because they lose the ability to remotely update software. Now, new software exists that allows the district to manage updates when computersarebeingoperated.
TRENDS IN ENERGY SAVINGS IN
HOUSTON-AREA SCHOOLS
KLEIN ISD FACILITIES DEPT. – MAKING A
DIFFERENCE IN REDUCING M&O COST
BY: ROBERT ROBERTSON, KLEIN ISD
Noneofushaveacrystalballtopredictthefuture,butwearecharged withbeinggoodstewardsofthetaxpayerdollarsallocatedtousthat carrieswithittheresponsibilityofensuringthatwebuildnewschools economicallyandthatweoperatethemefficiently.Contrarytopopular conventionconstructionandoperationarenotdiametricallyopposed. Thedepartmentstaskedwithoperatingtheschoolonceitiscompleted mustbeinvolvedintheconstructionprocessthroughoutthedesignand constructionoftheschool.Thatwaywhenthebuildingisturnedover theyhaveanunderstandingofhowitshouldoperatemostefficiently. IftheschoolwasconstructedfollowingCHPS(CollaborativeforHigh Performing Schools) or LEED for Schools (Leadership in Energy and EnvironmentalDesign)therearespecificrequirementsinthetypesof productstobeusedtomaintainthebuilding.Knowingthatgoingin makesitmucheasierandmorelikelythatthebuildingisoperatedas intended.
Klein ISD has built its latest elementary school following CHPS Guidelines.Resultsfromthefirstfour(4)monthsofoperationsreflecta 30%reductioninelectricityusagewhencomparedtoitssisterschool ofthesamearchitecturaldesign.Byusingcondensateandrainwater collection for the irrigation system and low-flow fixtures the school is using half as much water as other elementaries. All of this has a favorable impact on the General Fund. It should be noted that this designwasaprototypethathadbeenbuiltthreeprevioustimesand thatthemechanicalsystemswerere-designedforCHPScompliance. Theelementaryschoolcurrentlyunderconstructionwasdesignedfrom thebeginningfollowingCHPS. Notallefficienciesarefoundinconstruction.Avaluabletoolemployed byKISDinthelastthree(3)yearshasbeentheBenchmark4Excellence Study that compares operations in maintenance, custodial, grounds and energy for KISD to other districts in Texas. The data presented is used to identify areas using excessive resources that can then be reallocatedtoareasthatareinneedorreturnedtotheGeneralFund. Through the use of this data KISD has reduced custodial staffing by 78 positions over the last three years while increasing productivity throughtheuseofautomaticfloormachinesandhands-freerestroom cleaning systems. The study has also been used to support requests foradditionalstaffingandfundsinareaswhereneeded.And,perhaps mostimportantly,itisusedtorecognizeoutstandingperformance.
Handbook of Best Practices for Project Close-out to be released Soon!
ThesuccessofthepreviousthreeAGC/CEFPIjointtaskforcesondevelopingbestpracticeshandbooksforCSP,CMatRiskandHiringanArchitect, haveledtothechargeofthejointtaskforcetoproducearecommendedpracticeshandbookfocusingonsuccessfulprojectclose-out. Thepurposeofthishandbookistoprovideanoverviewofbestpractices,providetoolsandstrategiesformanaginganeffectiveprojectclose-out effort.Thegoalistokeeptheclose-outprocesscollaborativeandefficienttominimizethestressnormallyassociatedwithprojectclose-out,and toreducetheamountoftimerequiredtoachievefinalprojectcompletion. TheClose-OutHandbookisinitsfinaltechnicaldraft,andisintheprocessofbeingreviewedbytheAGCandCEFPIboards.Duetothevarious local,regionalandnationalboardschedules,itisanticipatedthatfinalboardapprovalwillbereachedsometimemid-summer.Onceapproved bybothboardsforrelease,looktoeitherorganizations’websiteforthepublicationofthefinaldocumentthissummer.
