Upper Midwest Specialty Crops:
What does a viable future look like?
Jed Colquhoun and Paul Mitchell
University of Wisconsin-Madison
The maximum is not the optimum
-Garrett Hardin, The Tragedy of the Commons
• Current value of specialty crops, processing and related infrastructure
• Recent trends in specialty crop production, using US and Wisconsin examples
• Introducing a Specialty Crop Task Force
• WE NEED TO HEAR FROM YOU!
The future of specialty crops
Specialty crops are part of our rural glue
2013-2015 Average
Industry
Total Revenue
($ million) Total Economic Activity
($ million) Total Jobs
Specialty Crop Production $695 $1,059 7,567
Potatoes $271 $413 2,922
Vegetables $228 $348 2,497
Cranberries $158 $241 1,735
Other Fruit $38 $58 413
Specialty Crop Processing $2,822 $4,781 16,981
Total Impacts $3,517 $5,835 24,538
A $5.8 billion dollar industry generating almost 25,000 jobs
from 700 million dollars of raw fruit and vegetable products
Economic Impact of Specialty Crop Industry in
Wisconsin 2006-2008 versus 2013-2015
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
Production Processing Total
Economic Activity ($Million)
2006-2008 2013-2015
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
Production Processing Total
Number of Jobs
2006-2008 2013-2015
-3%
-9% -8%
-24%
-32%
-29%
Prices continue to decline for almost all
commodities, while production costs increase
Prices received August 2017 August 2018
Dry beans $29.50/cwt $26.30/cwt
Carrots, fresh $28.90/cwt $25.80/cwt
Sweet corn, fresh $26.80/cwt $24.40/cwt
Cucumbers, fresh $16.00/cwt $17.80/cwt
Onions, fresh $13.60/cwt $15.20/cwt
Potatoes, fresh $14.61/cwt $11.20/cwt
Apples $0.426/lb $0.297/lb
Strawberries $84.70/cwt $50.50/cwt
Corn $3.27/bu $3.36/bu
Soybean $9.24/bu $8.59/bu
Milk, all $18.10/cwt $15.90/cwt
Prices paid Index for commodities and services, interest, taxes and farm wage rates
Index 105.7 108.7
Cranberry acres increased, prices dropped and in
2018 about 10% of the crop gets “dumped”
Harvested Acres Farm Price $/barrel
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
WI US
10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 WI All Other
WI farm price: Down 39% since 2012
Processing Vegetables in Wisconsin
(Sweet Corn, Snap Beans, Green Peas, Carrots, Cucumbers)
Year Planted
Acres Value
($ million) Value ($/Ac) 2011 194,300 $174 $894 2012 198,700 $193 $970 2013 184,300 $251 $1,361 2014 183,000 $156 $853 2015 179,400 $156 $869 2016 172,200 $126 $734 2017 157,300 $119 $754
• Planted Acres down 21% since peak in 2012
• Crop Value down 53% since peak in 2013
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Crop Acres (1,000’s) Crop Value ($ Million) Planted Acres Cro p Value
US per capita vegetable consumption has been
declining since 1996 (total quantity)
– Decrease in last 10 years:
All 5%, Fresh 3%, Canned 8%, Frozen 10%
0 50 100 150 200
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Pounds
Fresh Canned Frozen
Canned snap bean consumption per capita
and price have declined significantly
2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Pounds
US canned snap bean per capita consumption
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
$/cwt
US snap bean season average farm price (2009 dollars)
Data source: USDA-ERS
Meanwhile, yield per acre increases, more
than making up for acreage decline
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Yield (ton/A)
Wisconsin snap bean yield
50, 000 55, 000 60, 000 65, 000 70, 000 75, 000 80, 000 85, 000 90, 000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Planted acres
Wisconsin snap bean acres
Data source: USDA-NASS
WI Potatoes: an example of successful volume management?
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Harvested Acres
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Yield (cwt/A)
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Production (million cwt)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Price ($/cwt)
Data source: USDA-NASS
Consumers aren’t the only variability that
presents risk and opportunities
Well, that’s depressing… what can we do
about it?
• Specialty Crop Task Force:
• Small group and individual meetings: growers, food processors, public agencies, commodity leadership, food innovators, retailers.
• Learn about related successes, here and elsewhere:
specialty meats, specialty cheeses, fermentation products (foods as well as breweries/distilleries), multi- ingredient convenience products.
• Not to replicate what’s worked elsewhere, but to learn how they went about finding success
• Compile and analyze information, propose a suite of potential options, share and seek feedback at a Specialty Crop Summit.
Does the data we shared reflect reality?
A. Yes, unfortunately it’s accurate
B. It’s about 75% accurate but could use a few tweaks C. It’s about 25% accurate but off base in quite a few areas D. No, it’s doesn’t reflect reality at all
How concerned are you about these trends?
A. They’re consistently downward and we need to do something different now
B. We need some moderate tweaks but not wholesale change C. It’s a cycle we’ve seen before, and we’ll recover if we stay the
course
What should be our highest priority for
change?
A. What we grow – we need to change our cropping portfolio B. How we grow our crops (ie. local, organic, sustainable, etc.)
C. How we process/package the crops we currently grow (ie. frozen, fresh, dehydrated, pouch packs, etc.)
D. How we market what we currently grow and process
Is there room in a pre-competitive space for
new crop/product/market development?
A. Yes, we should think about this as a regional agricultural solution (ie. Napa wines, Vidalia onions)
B. No, let the individual companies figure it out and we’ll grow what they need
What is our region’s greatest value
proposition relative to competitors?
A. Climate
B. Water availability, both for agronomy and processing C. Pests, or lack thereof
D. Transportation and nearby consumers E. Processing and storage infrastructure F. Expertise
Discussion points: products
Are there other products we could create with our existing crop portfolio that would be attractive to consumers?
What should we look at growing to diversify our crop portfolio?
How can agriculture become as nimble as consumers?
Discussion points: process
What is an appropriate role in determining our future for the University and public sector?
Who should be involved in helping us decide what to grow and process?
Select photos courtesy Sevie Kenyon, UW-Madison
