Immigration, Integration and Return Migration:

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LUND UNIVERSITY

Department of Economic History

SWEDEN

Immigration, Integration and

Return Migration:

The Swedish Experience.

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The importance of return migration

• Return migration was for long a neglected issue within migration research

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• Return rates among labor migrants frequently higher than 50 %.

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• Return rates among labor migrants frequently higher than 50 %

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1990s: An increased interest

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1990s: An increased interest

• Refugee crises after the end of Cold War • Economic downturn in receiving countries

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1990s: An increased interest

• Refugee crises after the end of Cold War • Economic downturn in receiving countries • Search for new refugee reception models

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1990s: An increased interest

• Refugee crises after the end of Cold War • Economic downturn in receiving countries • Search for new refugee reception models

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1990s: An increased interest

Shortage

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1990s: An increased interest

Shortage

Shortage of of highhigh--skilledskilled workersworkers New

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1990s: An increased interest

Shortage

Shortage of of highhigh--skilledskilled workersworkers New

New laborlabor migration migration flowsflows Population

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Rates of return migration have decreased since the early 70s

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• Restrictions on labor immigration • Increased refugee immigration

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• Restrictions on labor immigration • Increased refugee immigration

¾Gradual change in the composition of

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Accumulated rates of return migration from Sweden

by immigration cohort and years since immigration

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 Non-Nordic 1970

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 Non-Nordic 1970 1980

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 Non-Nordic 1970 1980 1990

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 1970 Nordic Non-Nordic 1970 1980 1990

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 1970 1980 Nordic Non-Nordic 1970 1980 1990

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 1970 1980 1990 Nordic Non-Nordic 1970 1980 1990

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GDP per capita 1970-2000, Finland and Sweden 1990 international dollars 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 000 22 000 24 000 26 000 197 0 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 198 4 198 6 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 200 0 Finland Sweden

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GDP per capita 1970-2000, Denmark and Sweden 1990 international dollars 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 000 22 000 24 000 26 000 1970 197 2 1974 1976 1978 1980 198 2 198 4 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Denmark Sweden

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GDP per capita 1970-2000, Norway and Sweden 1990 international dollars 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 000 22 000 24 000 26 000 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Norway Sweden

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Forced migration Voluntary migration Temporary residence rights Permanent residence rights

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Forced migration

Labor

Labor migrantsmigrants Voluntary migration Temporary residence rights Permanent residence rights

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Forced migration

Guest workers Guest workers Labor

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Permanent Permanent asylum asylum Forced migration Guest workers Guest workers Labor

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Temporary Temporary protection protection Permanent Permanent asylum asylum Forced migration Guest workers Guest workers Labor

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Probability of return migration from Sweden by income category. Odds ratios.

Greece, Turkey and Yugoslavia 1968-1989.

P-value Odds ratio Income category 0.02 1.87 High 0.03 1.58 Medium-high 0.00 1.51 Medium 0.01 1.39 Medium-low (reference) 1.00 Low

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Probability of return migration from Sweden by income category. Odds ratios.

Germany and the United States 1968-1996.

P-value Odds ratio Income category 0.00 4.69 High 0.00 2.63 Medium-high 0.00 1.87 Medium 0.01 1.34 Medium-low (reference) 1.00 Low

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Accumulated rates of Greek return migration from Sweden by immigrant cohort and years since immigration

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

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Accumulated rates of Turkish return migration from Sweden by immigrant cohort and years since immigration

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

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Conditional probability of return migration from Sweden 1990-1996 by years since immigration, country of origin and immigration cohort.

Cohort 1 = 1973-84. Cohort 2 = 1985-1990 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Iran1 Iran2

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Cohort 1 = 1973-84. Cohort 2 = 1985-1990 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

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Cohort 1 = 1973-84. Cohort 2 = 1985-1990 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

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Cohort 1 = 1973-84. Cohort 2 = 1985-1990 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

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Unemployment rates 1989-1996, Chile, Poland and Sweden. Percent of the workforce

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Chile Poland Sweden

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Conclusion

• Return migration highly sensitive to economic circumstances

-- refugee return migration too!

--political as well as economic security needed for return migrants

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Conclusion

• Immigration and return migration generally positively selected

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Conclusion

• Low impact of migration on age structure of host societies

-- Return migration decreases the effect of immigration on age

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Conclusion

• Temporary residence models lead to economic inefficiency

-- hampers economic integration of immigrants