Saving lives through early warning systems and emergency preparedness
Maryam Golnaraghi Ph.D, chief; James Douris, technical officer and Jean-Baptiste Migraine, junior professional officer, Disaster Risk Reduction Division, World Meteorological Organization
Every year disasters cause significant impacts around the globe. Disasters caused by meteorological, hydrological and climate-related hazards such as floods, tropical cyclones, droughts and heat waves are the most frequent and extensive geographically, resulting in the largest share of overall impacts. Statistics from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) reveal that during the period 1980-2007, nearly 8,500 disasters caused by natural hazards worldwide killed about two million people and resulted in losses of USD1.5 trillion.
During this period, about 90 per cent of disasters caused by natural hazards were of meteorological or hydrological origin, accounting for 1.3 million losses of life and 1,200 trillion US dollars (respec- tively 71 per cent and 78 per cent of overall impacts).
Over the last 50 years, globally, the recorded number of disasters and their associated economic losses have increased by nearly ten- fold and 50-fold, respectively. However, the associated loss of life has decreased ten-fold. This reduction in loss of life is linked to the devel- opment of effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies and strategies, particularly related to linking early warning systems to emergency preparedness and planning at national to local levels.
50 Years of international cooperation to support national capacities for early warning systems Over the years, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized agency of the United Nations, has acted as an authoritative voice for weather, water, climate and disasters of hydrometeorological origin, and has promoted the importance of prevention and preparedness measures including risk assessment, early warning systems and sectoral planning to reduce the impacts of weather, climate and water- related hazards.
Through the coordinated networks of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of its 188 members, WMO coordinates the networks of Global Observing System, Global Telecommunication System and Global Data Processing and Forecasting System, providing a wide range of products and services based on observations, monitoring, hazard analysis, fore- casting to provide capacities to developing and least developed countries for issuance of warnings.
One of the core activities of WMO has been the consolidation of general requirements for global Earth observations and the coordination of consistent, system- atic and continuous collection and archiving of hydrometeorological observations. Furthermore, through establishment of standards, guidelines and procedures for data collection, quality control, format- ting, archiving and rescue, WMO has assisted countries, through their NMHSs, to enhance their capacity in this area. WMO continues to work towards ensuring consis- tent data quality and accessibility across national boundaries for the purpose of improving risk manage- ment capabilities at the regional and subregional levels.
Through the WMO Global Observing System, oper- ated by the National Meteorological Services, data are collected from 17 satellites, hundreds of ocean buoys, thousands of aircraft and ships and nearly 10,000 land- based stations. More than 50,000 weather reports and several thousand charts and digital products are dissem- inated daily through the WMO Global Telecommunication System, which interconnects all countries through their National Meteorological Services around the globe. The WMO Global Data Processing and Forecasting System involves three World Meteorological Centres (WMCs) and 40 Regional SE C T I O N A R E A
0.05 2.66
0.17 1.73
0.39 0.65
0.22 0.25 0.67
0.22 0
0.5 1 1.5
2 2.5
3
56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05
Geological Hydrometeorological
decade
casualties per decade (millions)
Decadal loss of life related to geological versus hydrometeorological hazards
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database – www.em-dat.net – Université Catholique de Louvain – Brussels – Belgium
levels of warning that are linked to levels of preparedness, readiness and emergency operations
• Community-based emergency planning, prepared- ness and training programmes to ensure effective response to warnings to reduce the potential impacts.
Development of capacities along these four components would require political commitment and investments for development of early warning systems and emer- gency preparedness reflected in disaster risk management plans and budgets, legislations that define explicitly roles and responsibilities of various authorities and agencies at national to local levels. Operational implementation of warning systems would also require a coordinated approach among different stakeholders with clear protocols and procedures that enable effec- tive coordination at national to community levels.
Furthermore, there is need for systematic feedback and evaluation of the system at all levels following each event, to ensure improvements over time.
International cooperation for strengthening national early warning system capacities
While the benefits of early warning systems have been demonstrated over the last decades, national policies in many countries continue to stress post-disaster response and relief operations. There remain significant defi- Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs), as well as regional
climate and drought monitoring centres. These centres, which are operated by NMHSs, ensure cooperation at global, regional and national levels to process data and routinely provide countries with analyses and meteorological forecasts, supporting early warning capacities through their NMHSs. An example is the WMO Global Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System. It comprises a coordinated observing network for collecting and sharing data, six Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers1providing tropical cyclone analy- sis, forecasts and alerts to the National Meteorological Services’ and five regional committees, which ensure ongoing improvements in the tropical cyclone forecasting and operational coordination for the upcoming season. This enables the availability of tropical cyclone warning capacities in all countries at risk. WMO is working on an integrated approach to ensure utilization of this coordinated network to support national warning systems for a wide range of hazards including floods, droughts, sand and dust storms, severe storms, storm surges and other marine related hazards.
Components of effective early warning systems
Effective early warning systems involve four operational compo- nents, including:
• Observing, detecting, monitoring and forecasting hazards, and developing warning messages
• Assessing the potential risks and integrating risk information in the warning messages
• Distributing, rapidly and reliably, understandable warnings to authorities, risk managers and the population at risk, with
WMO coordinated global operational network in Support of national early warning systems
Regional Meteorological Training Centres Drought Monitoring Centres Medium Range Forecasting Centre Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Centres
Environment Emergency Response Centres Regional Meteorological and Hydrological Specialised Centres World Meteorological Centres
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
Global Data Processing and Forecasting System
Global T
elecommunication Sys tem
Meteorological, hydrological and climate observations
Meteorological, hydrological and climate value-added products and warning advisories
Source: World Meteorological Organization
ciencies in investments in systematic and sustainable early warning systems and emergency preparedness programmes at the national to community levels, posing urgency for the scientific and technical, development and humanitarian community to work together to raise political awareness on the benefits of early warning systems and emergency preparedness and to assist countries in developing these capacities.
The concept of early warning systems has received significant international attention in the past few years.2Results of the Global Survey of Early Warning Systems, commissioned by the Former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, together with national and regional capacity assessment surveys conducted by the WMO, indicate that in many countries there is need for development of early warning systems as an integral part of national DRR strategies.
The adoption of the Hyogo Declaration and Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters (HFA) by 168 countries during the World Conference on Disaster Reduction (January 2005, Kobe, Japan), marked the beginning of a new era for disaster risk management, with the second high priority area stressing the importance of ‘identifying, assessing and monitoring disaster risks and enhancing early warnings.’
In May 2006, following the Third International Early Warning Conference (Bonn, Germany), WMO convened the First International Experts’ Symposium on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (Geneva, Switzerland, May 2006) (MHEWS-I), also co-spon- sored by the World Bank, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent
(IFRC), International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (ISDR) Secretariat and UNESCO, in which nearly 100 experts from the networks of 20 technical, humanitarian and development agencies participated.
The MHEWS-I:
• Provided recommendations pertaining to major gaps in governance, organizational coordination and operations aspects of early warning systems along the four components of early warning systems
• Identified criteria for good practices in early warning systems
• Identified examples of good practices including the France Vigilance System, Shanghai Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Emergency Response Programme, Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme, and Cuba Cyclone Preparedness and Response System
• Recommended the need for strengthened coordina- tion and collaboration among agencies across components of early warning systems.3
Since 2007 WMO, through an integrated planning approach with other partner humanitarian and devel- opment agencies (e.g. IFRC, World Bank, OCHA) and regional agencies, has been initiating national demon- stration and pilot projects to develop, analyse and document good practices in early warning systems. In Criteria for effective early warning systems
Meteorological
Hydrological
Geological
Marine
Health (etc.)
Coordination among National Services
feedback
feed back
Community Preparedness
risk warning
National to local governments
supported by DRR plans, legislation
and coordination mechanisms
risk warning
feedback
risk w arning
prev entive action
s
1
2
3
4
5
5 5
Communication and Dissemination
Source: International Experts’ Symposium on Early Warning Systems for Integrated Disaster Risk Management, May 2006
May 2009, WMO will be convening the 2nd International Experts’
Symposium on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS-II), to be hosted by Météo-France in Toulouse, France. Through collec- tive analysis of lessons learned from demonstration and pilot projects, the goal of this of MHEWS-II is to develop the first set of compre- hensive guidelines on governance, organizational coordination and operational aspects of early warning systems leveraging cooperation at regional, national and community levels.
Examples of good practices in early warning systems
French Vigilance System – In December 1999, the severe winter storm Lothar led to nearly 100 casualties and an estimated USD8 billion economic losses in France. Following this disaster, the French Vigilance System was established in close collaboration between the Ministry of Transportation (responsible for provision of weather fore- casts and warnings through Météo-France) and the Ministry of Interior (responsible for emergency preparedness and response), and was later complemented by a hydrological component, involving the Ministry of Ecology, Environment and Sustainable Development (responsible for flood forecasting). The French Vigilance System, supported by an inter-ministerial steering committee, became oper- ational in November 2001.
However, the 2003 heat wave led to nearly 20,000 casualties and an estimated USD4 billion economic losses in France. Lessons learned from this event were instrumental in setting up the heat/health warning module within the Vigilance System, involving close collaboration between Météo-France and the Ministry of Health (through the National Institute for Health Surveillance).
Since 2003, new legislation has been enacted to enhance emer- gency preparedness and response to the Vigilance System, including:
• The law for natural and technological risks (30 July 2003) which is administrated by the Ministry of ecology and sustain- able development, promoting adequate urban planning, protection measures, and dissemination of precise information about risks to the citizens
• The law for civil protection and crisis management (13 August 2004), which defines the roles and responsibilities of the differ-
ent agencies in the context of crisis management, calls on the responsibility of citizens in ensuring their security, and emphasizes the need for continu- ous government watch on any risks that would require operational response
• The Organic Law (1 January 2006) on finance, which allows for the distribution of budgets among different agencies, further strengthening inter- agency collaborations for implementation of specific programmes.
In the French Vigilance System, information about risks of hydrometeorological and climate phenomena at sub- regional and local levels is communicated on a map, with four colour-coded levels of vigilance. This map is updated at least twice a day and distributed to authori- ties and the public. If needed, authorities also get additional customized information for better planning and response operations. The system is continually improved through a feedback mechanism involving all partners.
Bangladesh Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme – Bangladesh is one of the good practices in demonstrating benefits of investments in emergency preparedness and tropical cyclone early warning system. Cyclone Bhola, on 12 November 1970, has been the deadliest tropical cyclone ever recorded in modern times. Up to 300,000 people lost their lives, primarily as a result of the associated storm surge that flooded much of the low-lying islands of the Ganges Delta. This cyclone was the sixth cyclonic storm and the most powerful of the 1970 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, reaching a strength equivalent to a category three hurricane. The coastline of Bangladesh was yet again devastated by Cyclone Gorky in 1991, leading to an estimated 140,000 deaths. Following
Category One Hurricane:
Category Two Hurricane:
Category Three Hurricane:
Category Four Hurricane:
Category Five Hurricane:
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers.
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris.
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. Some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Extensive damage to doors and windows.
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal.
Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down.
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Source: National Hurricane Center Miami: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml
these tragic disasters, the Government of Bangladesh through the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, together with the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society, developed the Cyclone Preparedness Programme. Since 2003, the Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP) complements the Cyclone Preparedness Programme, promoting community participation in the construction and maintenance of cyclone shelters. In November 2006 the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, CDMP, the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management and the Ministry of Defence signed a Memorandum of Understanding to clarify roles and responsibilities of each agency for early warning dissemina- tion. A Disaster Management Information Centre has been initiated under the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, to archive and disseminate meteorological, hydrological and climate infor- mation and warnings provided by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, anticipate and assess damages, coordinate relief oper- ations, and advise national planning processes so as to reduce disaster risks. Bangladesh’s regulative framework for disaster management, as updated in 2008, includes a Disaster Management Act, defining mandatory obligations and responsibilities among Ministries and agencies; a National Disaster Management Policy, describing the national objectives, and strategies in disaster management; a National Plan for Disaster Management 2007-2015, complemented by hazard-specific management plans (flood, cyclone, storm surge, tsunami, earthquake, drought, river erosion), and Standing Orders on Disaster, detailing roles and responsibili- ties of committees, ministries and other organizations in DRR and emergency management.
On the operational levels, this programme involves a coordinated approach to emergency preparedness and planning at national to community levels., linking the early warning of tropical cyclones issued by the Bangladesh Meteorological Agency (BMA) to an emer-
gency preparedness and response programme building upon a network of 33,000 volunteers at the community levels who assist with preparedness planning, drills, alert dissemination, evacuations, first aid, relief, and ongoing community education and training. A warning preparedness mechanism using a flag system enables the linking different levels of threat to appropriate actions to minimize the impacts. This preparedness programme is complemented with the development of concrete shelters raised on 12-foot pillars to allow tidal surges to flow beneath, allowing the population in the low-lying coastal region an effective evacuation mech- anism. Furthermore, in 2006 the system was further enhanced, with the setting up of the Disaster Management Information Centre, which archives and disseminates up-to-date weather, climate and seismic observation data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, anticipates and assesses damages, coordi- nates relief operations, and advises national planning processes so as to reduce disaster risks. The benefits of this programme were realized in November 2007 during the Cyclone Sidr, the equivalent to a category four hurricane, when loss of life was significantly reduced to 3,000. Following this event, the assessments carried out in the region and with consideration for potential increase in risks associated with such hydrometrologi- cal hazards linked to climate change, loss of life and economic losses in Bangladesh could be further reduced through development of additional cyclone shelters in the low-lying areas and more investments in infra- structure that could withstand the powers of the cyclones and storm surges in this region.
Two examples of good practices in early warning systems: France vigilance System and Bangladesh Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme
Shelters &
community preparedness
Dissemination:
networks of volunteers Meteoroligical
Department
Bangladesh Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme France Vigilance System
Coordination among technical agencies
Security services
& decision makers
General Public
Disaster management
information centre
Source: World Meteorological Organization
