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Platform 1
Results Review, 14 May 2014
Samart Corp PCL
(SAMART TB)
Buy
(Maintained)
Communications - Telecommunications
Target Price:
THB24.00
Market Cap: USD611m
Price:
THB19.80
ผลประกอบการไตรมาส 1/57 เปนไปตามคาด
Macro
Risks
Growth
Value
67 72 76 81 85 90 94 99 103 108 112 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32Samart Corp (SAMART TB)
Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 M ay -13 J u l-1 3 S ep-13 N o v-1 3 J an-14 M ar -14 V o l m Source: Bloomberg
Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 202m/6.23m Cons. Upside (%) 13.1 Upside (%) 21.2 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 14.0 - 30.0 Free float (%) 51 Share outstanding (m) 1,006 Shareholders (%)
Vilailuck International Holding Co., Ltd. 17.4 Mr Watchai Vilailuck 12.0 Mr Charoenrath Vilailuck 11.9 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 33.8 4.2 18.6 2.1 (28.0) Relative 27.9 5.2 14.0 4.8 (12.7) Shariah compliant
Kannika Siamwalla, CFA +66 2862 9744 [email protected]
Chun Phokaisawan +66 2862 2029 [email protected]
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F
Total turnover (THBm) 19,767 16,733 22,315 28,323 29,652 Reported net profit (THBm) 836 1,084 1,468 1,941 2,096 Recurring net profit (THBm) 836 1,084 1,468 1,941 2,096 Recurring net profit growth (%) 33.1 29.6 35.5 32.2 8.0
Recurring EPS (THB) 0.85 1.10 1.47 1.94 2.09 DPS (THB) 0.75 0.61 0.81 0.97 1.05 Recurring P/E (x) 23.3 18.1 13.4 10.2 9.5 P/B (x) 4.16 3.63 3.15 2.73 2.38 P/CF (x) na 4.4 9.5 19.3 11.3 Dividend Yield (%) 3.8 3.1 4.1 4.9 5.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.2 11.8 8.3 7.2 7.0
Return on average equity (%) 18.4 21.5 25.1 28.6 26.9 Net debt to equity (%) 124.8 120.9 94.9 91.4 82.2
Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) 0.0 0.0
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
มูลคากําไรไตรมาส 1/57 ที่ 403 ลานบาท (+9% q-o-q) คิดเปนสัดสวน 20% ของ ประมาณการทั้งปเนื่องจากยอดขายสมารทโฟนที่เพิ่มมากขึ้น ในขณะที่ธุรกิจ ICT ครบ วงจรบันทึกกําไรเติบโตทรงตัวเนื่องจากยังไมมีโครงการใหญในอนาคตอันใกล อยางไร ก็ตาม เรายังคงชื่นชอบ SAMART จากกระแสความนิยมของผลิตภัณฑสมารทโฟนซึ่ง ขณะนี้มีอัตราการถือครองที่ต่ําเพียง 40% ในประเทศไทย ยังคงแนะนํา “ซื้อ” ที่ราคา เปาหมายเทากับ 24 บาท
♦
กําไรสุทธิไตรมาส 1/57 ฟนตัว มูลคากําไรไตรมาส 1/57 ที่ 403 ลานบาท (+9% q-o-q, +15% y-o-y) คิดเปน สัดสวน 20% ของประมาณการทั้งป โดยรายไดเพิ่มขึ้นเปน 6.3 พันลานบาท (+ 20% y-o-y) เนื่องจากยอดขายสมารทโฟนที่เพิ่มมากขึ้นเปน 729,777 พันลาน เครื่อง (+91% y-o-y) ในขณะที่กําไรจากการดําเนินงานชะลอตัวลงเปน 739 ลานบาท (+5% y-o-y) เนื่องจากการพยาบามเคลียรสตอคสินคาผานทางการ ออกโปรโมชั่น นอกจากนั้น คาใชจายดอกเบี้ยลดลงอยางมีนัยสําคัญราว 15% y-o-y เปน 106 ลานบาทจากการการจายหนี้คืนในกลุมธุรกิจ ICT♦
ธุรกิจจาก Samart I-Mobile ยังแข็งแกรง (SIM TB, NR)ปริมาณยอดขาย handset รวมในไตรมาส 1/57 อยูที่ราว 1 ลานเครื่อง (+20% y-o-y) ในขณะที่ราคาขายเฉลี่ยเพิ่มขึ้นเปน 2926 บาทในไตรมาส 1/57 จากเดิม 2515 บาทในไตรมาส 1/56 จากยอดขายสมารทโฟนที่เพิ่มขึ้น โดยยอดขาย handset รวมของ Samart เพิ่มขึ้น 20% y-o-y ในไตรมาส 1/57 เทียบกับ ยอดขายของอุตสาหกรรมที่ปรับลดลงราว 2% ตอป ทั้งนี้ธุรกิจ MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator) บันทึกขาดทุนราว 20 ลานบาทในไตรมาส 1/57 ฟน ตัวจากเดิมขาดทุน 100 ลานบาทในป 2556 อยางมีนัยสําคัญ
♦
ธุรกิจ ICT บันทึกกําไรทรงตัวธุรกิจ ICT ภายใตแบรนด Samart Telecoms (SAMTEL, NR) บันทึกกําไรทรงตัว โดยรายไดลดลงเปน 2 พันลานบาทในไตรมาส 1/57 (-10% q-o-q) เนื่องจาก การกอสรางแลวเสร็จสําหรับโครงการติดตั้งเครือขาย 3G ในป 2556 อยางไรก็ ตาม SAMTEL บันทึกกําไรสุทธิไตรมาส 1/57 เทากับ 210 ลานบาท (+5% q-o-q) จากคาใชจายดอกเบี้ยที่ลดลง ในขณะที่ มูลคางานในมือในชวงสิ้นไตรมาส 1/57 เทากับ 6.6 พันลานบาทและรับรูรายไดราว 2 พันลานบาทในขณะที่เซ็น สัญญาโครงการใหมในไตรมาส 1/57 มูลคา 1.1 พันลานบาท ทั้งนี้ ผูบริหาร เปดเผยวาผลประมูลโครงการระบบตรวจสอบและคัดกรองผูโดยสารลวงหนา (APPS) มูลคา 3.4 พันลานบาทและโครงการ CUTE II มูลคา 2.5 พันลานบาทจะ ประกาศในเดือนพฤษภาคม-มิถุนายนนี้
See important disclosures at the end of this report 2
Figure 1: 1Q14 earnings results
FYE Dec (THB m) 1Q13 4Q13 1Q14 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) comment
Turnover 5,231.3 5,628.6 6,322.1 12.3 20.9 EBIT 704.8 629.0 739.2 17.5 4.9 EBIT margin (%) 13.5 11.2 11.7 4.6 -13.2 Net interest -125.0 -116.9 -106.1 -9.2 -15.1 Pretax profit 579.9 512.1 633.1 23.6 9.2 Pretax margin (%) 11.1 9.1 10.0 10.1 -9.7 Taxation -103.0 -12.7 -85.0 567.3 -17.4 Tax rate (%) 17.8 2.5 13.4 439.8 -24.4 Minority interest 127.0 131.1 144.8 10.4 14.0 Net profit 349.9 368.2 403.3 9.5 15.3 Net margin (%) 6.7 6.5 6.4 -2.5 -4.6 EPS (THB) 0.35 0.36 0.40 11.51 14.29
lower interst expenses as SAMTEL repaid most of its debt
Source: RHB estimates
Figure 2: I-Mobile handset sales Figure 3: Handset sales in Thailand
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 43.5 44 44 45 46.1 47.6 51.4 54
55.7 53.9 54.4 55.5 58.8 56.5 56 56 55 53.9 52.4 48.6 46
44.3 46.1 45.6 44.5 41.2
Smart Phone Mobile Phone (%)
Source: Company data Source: Company data
Figure 4: Expected projects to be won in 2Q14F Figure 5: Projects won in 1Q14
Project Name Type Customer Project Value (THB m)
APPS Service AOT 3,400
CUTE Outsource (5 Y Extended) Service AOT 2,500
PRD Digital TV Project PRD 980
Add order AMR Phase II Project PEA 250
Other 739
Project Name Type Customer Project Value (THB m)
IT System Project NSB 530
MOE-E-Classroom Trading MOE 107
Other 516
See important disclosures at the end of this report 3
Financial Exhibits
Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F
Total turnover 19,767 16,733 22,315 28,323 29,652 Cost of sales (15,987) (13,041) (16,933) (21,721) (22,637)
Gross profit 3,780 3,692 5,382 6,602 7,015
Gen & admin expenses (2,132) (1,917) (2,583) (3,059) (3,202)
Other operating costs (48) (125) (87) (113) (119)
Operating profit 1,600 1,651 2,712 3,430 3,694 Operating EBITDA 2,569 2,707 3,964 4,751 5,034 Depreciation of fixed assets (968) (1,056) (1,252) (1,322) (1,340) Operating EBIT 1,600 1,651 2,712 3,430 3,694 Other recurring income 197 364 118 142 148
Interest expense (391) (486) (510) (538) (567)
Pre-tax profit 1,407 1,529 2,320 3,033 3,275 Taxation (295) (151) (281) (607) (655)
Minority interests (276) (294) (571) (485) (524)
Profit after tax & minorities 836 1,084 1,468 1,941 2,096 Reported net profit 836 1,084 1,468 1,941 2,096 Recurring net profit 836 1,084 1,468 1,941 2,096 Source: Company data, RHB estimates Cash flow (THBm) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Operating profit 1,600 1,651 2,712 3,430 3,694 Depreciation & amortisation 968 1,056 1,252 1,322 1,340 Change in working capital (2,801) (435) (1,317) (2,440) (2,160) Other operating cash flow (53) 2,823 224 (138) 102
Operating cash flow (286) 5,095 2,871 2,174 2,975 Interest paid (391) (486) (510) (538) (567)
Tax paid (295) (151) (281) (607) (655)
Cash flow from operations (972) 4,458 2,081 1,029 1,753 Capex (1,020) (4,558) (1,074) (1,100) (1,100) Other investing cash flow 185 (228) 113 (9) (3)
Cash flow from investing activities (835) (4,786) (961) (1,109) (1,103) Dividends paid (743) (600) (808) (971) (1,048) Shares repurchased - (88) - -
-Proceeds from issue of shares 38 103 140 -
-Increase in debt 2,906 922 73 446 609
Other financing cash flow (50) 39 34 -
-Cash flow from financing activities 2,152 376 (560) (525) (439)
Cash at beginning of period 724 1,069 1,118 1,677 1,072 Total cash generated 345 49 559 (605) 212
Implied cash at end of period 1,069 1,118 1,677 1,072 1,284
See important disclosures at the end of this report 4
Financial Exhibits
Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F
Total cash and equivalents 1,091 1,145 1,700 1,103 1,316 Inventories 1,519 1,194 2,289 2,932 3,282 Accounts receivable 5,146 5,867 7,845 9,063 10,082 Other current assets 5,297 6,254 5,563 6,797 7,116
Total current assets 13,053 14,460 17,396 19,896 21,796
Total investments 129 245 131 132 134 Tangible fixed assets 4,164 5,165 4,963 4,741 4,501 Intangible assets 218 324 330 330 330 Total other assets 788 1,042 942 1,133 1,186 Total non-current assets 5,299 6,777 6,365 6,336 6,150
Total assets 18,352 21,237 23,761 26,232 27,947
Short-term debt 7,083 7,919 8,511 8,316 8,845 Accounts payable 2,994 3,346 4,141 4,344 4,075 Other current liabilities 694 1,260 1,529 1,983 1,779
Total current liabilities 10,771 12,525 14,181 14,642 14,699
Total long-term debt 1,491 1,577 1,058 1,699 1,779 Other liabilities 94 224 230 142 148
Total non-current liabilities 1,585 1,801 1,288 1,841 1,927
Total liabilities 12,356 14,326 15,469 16,483 16,626
Share capital 986 991 1,002 1,002 1,002 Retained earnings reserve 3,122 3,780 4,503 5,474 6,522 Other reserves 586 635 798 798 798
Shareholders' equity 4,694 5,406 6,304 7,275 8,323
Minority interests 1,302 1,504 1,988 2,474 2,998
Total equity 5,995 6,911 8,292 9,748 11,320
Total liabilities & equity 18,352 21,237 23,761 26,232 27,947
Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Key Ratios (THB) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F
Revenue growth (%) 24.2 (15.3) 33.4 26.9 4.7
Operating profit growth (%) 75.8 3.2 64.3 26.5 7.7
Net profit growth (%) 33.1 29.6 35.5 32.2 8.0
EPS growth (%) 32.5 29.0 34.4 31.5 8.0
Bv per share growth (%) 6.4 14.6 15.3 15.4 14.4
Operating margin (%) 8.1 9.9 12.2 12.1 12.5
Net profit margin (%) 4.2 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.1
Return on average assets (%) 5.2 5.5 6.5 7.8 7.7
Return on average equity (%) 18.4 21.5 25.1 28.6 26.9
Net debt to equity (%) 124.8 120.9 94.9 91.4 82.2
DPS 0.75 0.61 0.81 0.97 1.05
Recurrent cash flow per share (0.99) 4.51 2.09 1.03 1.75
See important disclosures at the end of this report 5
SWOT Analysis
• Leader in ICT solutions and handset businesses in Thailand
• Strong distribution network and aftersales services
• Competition from international competitors such as Huawei and OPPO • Political impasses could potentially delay ICT projects • Diversifying into the utilities business, which will provide more stable income
• Weak economy which could slow down private spending 0% 6% 11% 17% 23% 29% 34% 40% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 J an -11 J an -12 J an -13 J an -14 J an -15
P/E (x) vs EPS growth
P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs)
0% 4% 7% 11% 14% 18% 21% 25% 28% 32% 35% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 J an -11 J an -12 J an -13 J an -14 J an -15 P/BV (x) vs ROAE
P/B (x) (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs) Source: Company data, RHB estimates Source: Company data, RHB estimates
Company Profile
Samart Corp provides ICT and technology-related products and services to both public and private sectors. The company also distributes telecommunication products and is a leader in mobile handset business.
See important disclosures at the end of this report 6
Recommendation Chart
3 8 13 18 23 28 33May-09 Aug-10 Nov-11 Mar-13
Price Close NR 10.6 14.2 22.0 30. 0 24. 0
Recommendations & Target Price
Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated
Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg
Date Recommendation Target Price Price
2014-03-17 Buy 24.0 17.8 2013-03-06 Buy 30.0 22.4 2013-02-28 Buy 22.0 19.1 2012-11-14 Buy 14.2 11.2 2012-06-25 Buy 10.6 9.0 Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg
7 RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
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a) -
As of 13 May 2014, none of the analysts who covered the securities in this report has an interest in such securities, except for: a) Samart Corp PCL
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8
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Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) – Corporate Governance Report Rating 2013
ADVANC BCP CPF ERW IVL NKI PS ROBINS SCB SNC TCAP TMB UV
AOT BECL CPN GRAMMY KBANK NOBLE PSL RS SCC SPALI THAI TNITY VGI
ASIMAR BKI CSL HANA KKP PAP PTT S&J SCSMG SPI THCOM TOP WACOAL
BAFS BROOK DRT HEMRAJ KTB PG PTTEP SAMART SE-ED SSI THRE TRC
BANPU BTS DTAC ICC LPN PHOL PTTGC SAMTEL SIM SSSC TIP TRUE
BAY CIMB EASTW INTUCH MCOT PR QH SAT SIS SVI TASCO TTW
BBL CK EGCO IRPC MINT PRANDA RATCH SC SITHAI SYMC TKT TVO
2S AYUD CNT GL KKC MBK OISHI SABINA STANLY TK TTCL zZMICO
ACAP BEC CPALL GLOW KSL MBKET PB SAMCO STEC TLUXE TUF
AF BFIT CSC GOLD KWC MFC PDI SCCC SUC TMILL TWFP
AHC BH DCC GSTEL L&E MFEC PE SCG SUSCO TMT TYM
AIT BIGC DELTA GUNKUL LANNA MODERN PF SEAFCO SYNTEC TNL UAC
AKP BJC DTC HMPRO LH MTI PJW SFP TASCO TOG UMI
AMANAH BLA ECL HTC LHBANK NBC PM SIAM TCP TPC UMS
AMARIN BMCL EE IFEC LHK NCH PPM SINGER TF TPCORP UP
AMATA BWG EIC INET LIVE NINE PPP SIRI TFD TPIPL UPOIC
AP CCET ESSO ITD LOXLEY NMG PREB SKR TFI TRT UT
APCO CENTEL FE JAS LRH NSI PRG SMT THANA TRU VIBHA
APCS CFRESH FORTH JUBILE LST NWR PT SNP THANI TSC VIH
ASIA CGS GBX KBS MACO OCC PYLON SPCG THIP TSTE VNG
ASK CHOW GC KCE MAJOR OFM QTC SPPT TICON TSTH VNT
ASP CM GFPT KGI MAKRO OGC RASA SSF TIPCO TTA YUASA
*** PHATRA was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25,2012
A BCH CRANE FPI IT MBAX PICO SGP TBSP TPP WIN
AAV BEAUTY CSP FSS JMART MDX PL SIMAT TCCC TR WORK
AEC BGI CSR GENCO JMT PRINC POST SLC TEAM TTI
AEONTS BLAND CTW GFM JTS MJD PRECHA SMIT TGCI TVD
AFC BOL DEMCO GJS JUTHA MK PRIN SMK TIC TVI
AGE BROCK DNA GLOBAL KASET MOONG Q-CON SOLAR TIES TWZ
AH BSBM DRACO HFT KC MPIC QLT SPC TIW UBIS
AI CHARAN EA HTECH KCAR MSC RCI SPG TKS UEC
AJ CHUO EARTH HYDRO KDH NC RCL SRICHA TMC UOBKH
AKR CI EASON IFS KTC NIPPON ROJNA SSC TMD UPF
ALUCON CIG EMC IHL KWH NNCL RPC STA TMI UWC
ANAN CITY EPCO ILINK LALIN NTV SCBLIF SUPER TNDT VARO
ARIP CMR F&D INOX LEE OSK SCP SVOA TNPC VTE
AS CNS FNS IRC MATCH PAE SENA SWC TOPP WAVE
BAT-3K CPL FOCUS IRPC MATI PATO SF SYNEX TPA WG
*** CIMBI was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.
IOD (IOD Disclaimer)
