Vancouver Island Real Estate Board
Monthly Statistics Package
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
February 1, 2016
Housing Market Kicks Off 2016 With Strong Sales
NANAIMO, BC – The Vancouver Island housing market kicked off 2016 with strong sales, continuing the momentum created in the last quarter of 2015.
Last month, 258 single-family homes sold on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) compared to 196 in January 2015, an increase of 32 per cent. Sales activity was down slightly from December 2015’s tally of 276 single-family homes sold. Inventory levels are continuing their downward trend, with active listings down 21 per cent compared to one year ago.
BCREA Chief Economist Cameron Muir notes that 2016’s strong start is being bolstered by a robust fourth quarter in 2015. That year-end momentum – combined with limited inventory, a strong provincial GDP, improved job growth, and higher wages – will continue to fuel our local housing market.
Muir does expect sales activity in the VIREB area to edge back about three per cent in 2016, with softer demand coming in the latter half of the year. However, that decrease is normal in light of 2015’s robust sales.
Other factors likely to have a positive impact on VIREB’s housing market are low oil prices and a weak Canadian dollar, notes Muir.
“It’s going to take some time for the oil patch to recover, which could result in some interprovincial migration from the provinces most affected by the drop in oil prices,” says Muir. “Some Albertans close to retirement will likely decide to cash in, and B.C. is a popular retirement locale for our Prairie neighbours. Moreover, a weaker Canadian dollar has a net positive impact on our economy because it makes Vancouver Island a more attractive tourist destination.”
VIREB President Margo Hoffman notes that limited inventory is the biggest challenge for REALTORS® and home buyers in the VIREB area. Our housing market is now in seller’s territory, primarily caused by inventory levels that steadily declined month over month in 2015.
“Inventory has been decreasing for over a year now, and in most markets, there are more buyers than sellers,” says Hoffman. “If you’ve been waiting for an opportune time to put your home on the market, now would be an excellent time to sell.”
Despite current market conditions, however, pricing your home appropriately for your neighbourhood is still a vital aspect of the sales process.
“The fact is that overpriced homes take longer to sell no matter how busy the market is,” says Hoffman. “A REALTOR® can help you set a fair price to ensure the best chance of a sale.”
In January 2016, the benchmark price of a single-family home in the VIREB area was $340,200, up 5.94 per cent from one year ago. Benchmark pricing tracks the value of a typical home in the reported area. The average MLS® price of a single-family home in January was $365,850, a seven per cent increase from January 2015 and up slightly over last month.
The January 2016 benchmark price of a single-family home in the Campbell River area was $268,300, down 1.22 per cent from last year. In the Comox Valley, the benchmark price was $332,100, up 3.77 per cent from 2015. Duncan reported a benchmark price of $304,700, an increase of 7.22 per cent over the same month in 2015. Nanaimo’s benchmark price rose 6.17 per cent to $358,200 while the Parksville-Qualicum area saw its benchmark price rise by 10.03 per cent to $388,000. The price for a benchmark home in Port Alberni was $186,800, an increase of 10.64 per cent since January 2015.
VIREB represents nearly 950 REALTOR® members in approximately 90 member offices on Vancouver Island (north of Victoria).
VIREB cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate the actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas.
Trademarks are owned or controlled by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify real estate professionals who are members of CREA (REALTOR®) and/or the quality of services they provide (MLS®). Visit our website for updated information at www.vireb.com.
Contact:
Margo Hoffman, President: 250.248.8371
Janice Stromar, President-Elect: 250.758.7653
Jason Finlayson, Past President: 250.746.8123
Darrell Paysen, Manager, Member Services: 250.390.4212
Or, for further localized comments, please contact:
Campbell River:
Cholene Begin 250.286.3293
Comox Valley:
Neil Woodrow 250.334.3124
Cowichan Valley:
Jason Finlayson 250.746.8123
Nanaimo:
Janice Stromar 250.758.7653
Kaye Broens 250.751.1223
Parksville-Qualicum:
Margo Hoffman 250.248.8371
Port Alberni-West Coast:
Sandy Rantz 250.746.2228
MLS® HPI Media Contact
Communications Department
Vancouver Island Real Estate Board
[email protected]
Backgrounder
About the MLS® Home Price Index
On November 1
st, VIREB adopted the MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) as a new method of reporting
price trends in the market. The MLS® HPI determines the value for a typical “benchmark” home, which is
a notional dwelling that shares a specific set of qualitative and quantitative attributes. Benchmark prices
tend to be slightly lower than corresponding medians and averages
The MLS® HPI, based on the information entered into the MLS® System at the time of sale, is the best
and purest way of determining price trends in the housing market. It was pioneered by six founding
partners: the real estate boards of Calgary, Fraser Valley, Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver, and the
Canadian Real Estate Association. In 2009, the partners contracted with Altus Group to develop the
MLS® HPI, which subsequently launched in January 2012. Others have since joined the program, with 10
partners and growing.
Why an MLS® Home Price Index?
The MLS® HPI captures and analyzes Canadian home prices based on both quantitative and qualitative
housing features.
Quantitative features captured by the index are, for example, number of rooms and bathrooms, living
area above ground and the age of the home. Qualitative features include finished basement, if the home
is new or resale, and the home’s proximity to shopping, schools, transportation, hospitals and so on.
The MLS® HPI gauges Vancouver Island prices relative to January 2005, and tracks price trends for
benchmark housing types:
Single-family homes
o One-storey
o Two-storey
Townhouses
Condominium apartments
The complete methodology is available at
http://homepriceindex.ca/hpi_resources_en.html
Why Does It Matter?
Average and median home prices are often misinterpreted, are affected by change in the mix of homes
sold, and can swing dramatically from month to month (based on the types and prices of properties that
sold in a given month). The MLS® HPI overcomes these shortcomings.
Compared to all other Canadian home price measures, the MLS® HPI identifies turning points sooner, is
the most current, and is the most detailed and accurate gauge for Canadian home prices.
How to Read the Tables
Benchmark Price: Estimated sale price of a benchmark property. Benchmarks represent a typical
property in each market.
Price Index: Index numbers estimate the percentage change in price on typical and constant quality
properties over time. All figures are based on past sales. In January 2005, all indices are set to 100
Month/Year change %: Percentage change of index over a period of (x) month(s) year.
MLS® Sales Summary
Copies of archived Statistics are available at our website. Go to
www.vireb.com
and under
Resources in the top menu, choose Market Statistics. You are encouraged to contact any of
the Directors of the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board to obtain local comments.
Average, Median, and Benchmark Price (HPI) Comparisons
$0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 Ja n -1 4 Fe b -1 4 M a r-14 A p r-1 4 M a y-1 4 Ju n -1 4 Ju l-1 4 A u g-1 4 Se p -1 4 O ct -1 4 N o v-1 4 De c-14 Ja n -1 5 Fe b -1 5 M a r-15 A p r-1 5 M a y-1 5 Ju n -1 5 Ju l-1 5 A u g-1 5 Se p -1 5 O ct -1 5 N o v-1 5 De c-15 Ja n -1 6 Copyri ght© 2016 VIREBVIREB Board Area MLS® Sales
Single Family - Average, Median and Home Price Index
Average Sale Price Median HPI
$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 Ja n -1 4 Fe b -1 4 M a r-14 A p r-1 4 M a y-1 4 Ju n -1 4 Ju l-1 4 A u g-1 4 Se p -1 4 O ct -1 4 N o v-1 4 De c-14 Ja n -1 5 Fe b -1 5 M a r-15 A p r-1 5 M a y-1 5 Ju n -1 5 Ju l-1 5 A u g-1 5 Se p -1 5 O ct -1 5 N o v-1 5 De c-15 Ja n -1 6 Copyri ght© 2016 VIREB
VIREB Board Area MLS® Sales
Condo (Apt) Average, Median and Home Price Index
Average Sale Price Median HPI$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 Ja n -1 4 Fe b -1 4 M a r-14 A p r-1 4 M a y-1 4 Ju n -1 4 Ju l-1 4 A u g-1 4 Se p -1 4 O ct -1 4 N o v-1 4 De c-14 Ja n -1 5 Fe b -1 5 M a r-15 A p r-1 5 M a y-1 5 Ju n -1 5 Ju l-1 5 A u g-1 5 Se p -1 5 O ct -1 5 N o v-1 5 De c-15 Ja n -1 6 Copyri ght© 2016 VIREB
VIREB Board Area MLS® Sales
Condo (Twnhse) - Average, Median and Home Price Index
Single-Family - Active Listings / Listings and Sales
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Ja n -1 4 Fe b -1 4 M a r-14 A p r-1 4 M a y-1 4 Ju n -1 4 Ju l-1 4 A u g-1 4 Se p -1 4 O ct -1 4 N o v-1 4 De c-14 Ja n -1 5 Fe b -1 5 M a r-15 A p r-1 5 M a y-1 5 Ju n -1 5 Ju l-1 5 A u g-1 5 Se p -1 5 O ct -1 5 N o v-1 5 De c-15 Ja n -1 6 Copyri ght© 2016 VIREBVIREB Board Area - Single Family Active MLS® Listings
Active 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Ja n -1 4 Fe b -1 4 M a r-14 A p r-1 4 M a y-1 4 Ju n -1 4 Ju l-1 4 A u g-1 4 Se p -1 4 O ct -1 4 N o v-1 4 De c-14 Ja n -1 5 Fe b -1 5 M a r-15 A p r-1 5 M a y-1 5 Ju n -1 5 Ju l-1 5 A u g-1 5 Se p -1 5 O ct -1 5 N o v-1 5 De c-15 Ja n -1 6 Copyri ght© 2016 VIREB
