Adaptation to a Changing Climate

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Adaptation to a Changing

Climate

City Infrastructure Preparedness

David MacLeod

City of Toronto Environment Office March 3, 2011

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WHAT

IS CITY INFRASTRUCTURE?



Physical (Hard)

Infrastructure

 Buildings

 Municipal & privately-owned

 Transportation

 Roads, sidewalks, culverts,

bridges , traffic signals…

 Public transportation facilities

 Water supply / distribution  Sewer / stormwater systems  Solid waste facilities

 Electricity distribution &

generation

 Natural gas distribution  Communications



Natural Infrastructure

 Natural areas within & around

cities

 Coastal zones

 Lakes, rivers, streams, wetlands  Urban trees & vegetation



Social (Soft) Infrastructure

 Public health

 Emergency response  Social services

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EXAMPLES OF ACTIONS TO COMBAT CLIMATE CHANGE

Mitigation Adaptation

• Sustainable transportation • Energy efficiency

• Building Code changes • Renewable energy

• Expand deep lake water cooling • Improve vehicle fuel efficiency

• Capture & use landfill & digester gas

• Tree planting & care • Healthy green space

conservation

• Local food production • Water conservation

• Green roofs

• Infrastructure upgrades: sewers &

culverts

• Residential programs: sewer backflow &

downspout disconnection

• Health programs: West Nile, Cooling

Centres, Smog Alerts, Air Quality Health Index

• Help for vulnerable people during severe

weather

• Countering invasive species

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ANTICIPATED CC IMPACTS ON TORONTO –

INFRASTRUCTURE ASSETS

 More extreme weather events

e.g.:

 Heavy rain, flash floods, high

wind, freezing rain, hail, tornadoes, etc.

 Damage to:

 Buildings, water, sewer &

transportation infrastructure

 Electrical system, causing

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ANTICIPATED CLIMATE CHANGE

IMPACTS ON TORONTO

 More heat waves, smog

days, related illness & deaths

 Stress on electrical

supply from increased use of A/C

 Declining lake levels,

affecting water quality & shipping

Source on Anticipated Impacts:

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ANTICIPATED CC IMPACTS ON

TORONTO - ECOSYSTEMS

 Increased disease

carried by insect vectors

 Damage to urban trees

from insect pests & storms

 Increased stress &

damage to vulnerable ecosystems & habitats

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LOCAL VULNERABLE POPULATION:

HEAT

IS BOTHERSOME & LETHAL

 Homeless

 Low-income people

 Housing conditions  Limited mobility

 Lack of insurance, savings

 People in poor health  Isolated seniors

 Infants & small children

“Streets to Homes” worker attending to a client

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FLOODING: A GROWING PROBLEM

Toronto, 2005 - $547 Million Calgary, 2005 - $300 Million Edmonton, 2004 - $166 Million Peterborough, 2004 - $87.3 Million

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TORONTO: AUGUST 2005 STORM

TOTAL

$547 Million

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Finch Ave in Toronto

Photos courtesy Jane-Finch.com

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TORONTO: 2005 STORM IMPACT SUMMARY

Impact Area Impacts

Physical Structures  Damage to infrastructure, homes, businesses, vehicles  Loss of cultural and natural heritage features

City Operations, Business &

Households

 Arterial road closed 14 months

 Businesses disrupted in flooded areas  Basement contents destroyed

 City workers & budgets redeployed (e.g. tree disposal instead of planting & care)

Safety & Security  Cars caught in floods; blackouts in some neighbourhoods; potential harm to citizens, potential for disease outbreaks (water-borne) and infections (contact with sewage

contaminated flood waters) Financial  Repair costs & overtime

 Loss of staff productivity  Claims against the City

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SAMPLE ADAPTATION ACTIONS IN TORONTO



Limiting reverse slope driveways



Upgrade tree planting requirements



Water treatment plant UPS upgrades



Improved watershed & species monitoring



Heat alert system study & upgrades

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Lot grading

Sewer backflow valve

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Green Roof Incentive Program

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Sustainable Sidewalks

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Sensors:

 Wind speed, gusts & direction  Precip [yes/no]

 Temp & humidity

Cabinet contains:

 Processing unit (RPU / Data logger)  Telecom

 Power connection

 Digital barometer - pressure

Optional sensors:

 Visibility

 Precip amount & type  Cameras

 Traffic counters

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3 In 1 Salt Truck

Brine tanks

Salt Management Program

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New Street Sweepers

Can operate dry in cold weather if there is no snow

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TORONTO’S MAJOR PROGRAMS

Wet Weather Flow Master Plan (2003)  $1 Billion investment over 25 years Basement Flooding Program (2006)

 $680 Million investment over 10 years

 5 of 32 flooded areas now studied (recent cost estimate to address risk is $226 Million for the 5 areas)

Climate Change, Clean Air & Sustainable Energy Action Plan (2007)

 $1 Billion over 5 years (includes Transit City – street car / LRT expansion) Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (2008)

 ‘Ahead of the Storm’: Identifies short & medium term adaptation actions  ‘Climate Drivers Study’ : Improves local knowledge of future weather

extremes

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CASE STUDY: SEA-LEVEL RISE / STORM SURGE

Southwest BC Coast at Risk Maritimes Coast at Risk

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SEA LEVEL / STORM SURGE RISK – HALIFAX

Impact Areas Potential Impacts

Physical Structures

 Entire 2100 km coastline ranked at high or moderate risk to sea level rise & storm surge (NRCan, 2005)

 50% of coastline at risk from erosion City Operations,

Business

 Potential damage to coastal roads, rail lines, bridges, underground services

 Increased threats to wastewater systems  Disruption of port traffic

Safety & Security

 Halifax is home port for Canada’s Atlantic Naval Fleet  Hospitals provide services to Atlantic Canada

 Majority of population lives within 10 km of coast

Financial  Repair/replacement costs for municipal infrastructure  Increased insurance costs

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WHY IS CITY INFRASTRUCTURE CRITICAL?

 Two-thirds of Canada’s population is concentrated in 20 urban

areas

 Infrastructure provides critical lifelines – water, food, shelter,

heat, light, mobility, communications, access to services, removing waste……

 Massive investment in existing municipal infrastructure –

estimated at $1.1 Trillion

 Infrastructure and its configuration is a major determinant of

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MAJOR CANADIAN CLIMATE CHANGE HAZARDS

Climate Change Hazards Infrastructure Most Affected Cities Affected Increase in intense storms & precipitation causing floods

Almost all infrastructure at risk All Canadian cities

Sea level rise and higher storm surges

Ports, coastal rail lines & roads, ecosystems, groundwater,

buildings, wastewater treatment

Coastal cities (Vancouver, Halifax, Victoria, St. John’s, Saint John…)

More hot days, heat waves & related air quality impacts

Buildings

Electricity supply & distribution Public health & social services Urban forest

Interior cities, especially the Windsor-Quebec City corridor; Prairie cities will also

experience more heat waves Drier summers, reduced

snowpack

Water supply

Natural infrastructure

Cities dependent on

groundwater, snowmelt, or local agricultural production

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OTHER STRESSORS ON INFRASTRUCTURE

 Municipal infrastructure deficit  Growing populations & urban intensification increase demands on infrastructure  Infrastructure financing dependent on property taxes 28% 31% 41% 80-100 Years 40-80 Years 0-40 Years

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FUTURE CHANGES TO MUNICIPAL SECTOR

2010 2020 2050 Canadian Population Urban 27 million (80%) Total 34 million Urban 32 million (84%) Total 38 million Urban 42 million (89%) Total 47 million Infrastructure Status / Funding $100+ billion estimated deficit; New spending underway

Deficit reduced by recent investments;

Stormwater management improved

Will require major renewals

Climate Change Impacts

Flooding & storm damages already significant

Dry summers & warmer winters contributing to water shortages

Heat / drought / sea level will be major problems Regulatory Requirements Based on obsolete historical climate; Cdn Standards Assn, Environment Canada & others working on new standards

Some new standards in place based on better information about extremes (e.g. Intensity Duration Frequency curves)

30-year data set & better climate models will provide basis for better & tougher standards

Total Risk Significant risks exist No significant change

from 2010

Manageable if adaptation done

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MANAGING RISKS



Cities need to identify, understand and manage

climate change risks by:

 Increasing awareness & understanding at all levels of

organizations

 Conducting “screening level” risk assessments to identify

vulnerabilities

 Conducting engineering vulnerability assessments for priority

infrastructure (See PIEVC)

 Prioritizing adaptation planning & actions for infrastructure:

 at critical risk of failure  with high levels of service

 that is long-lived & requires significant investment to renew or

replace

 Implementing operational & maintenance procedures that protect

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POTENTIAL ACTIONS TO BUILD RESILIENCE

1. Targeted communications & training for municipal

decision-makers & staff on the significance of current and expected impacts.

2. Investment in affordable, accessible, local climate trends & projections, including factors of specific concern for

infrastructure (e.g. temp. & precip. extremes, wind, snow loading, freeze/thaw cycles, IDF curves, etc.).

3. Sectoral & cross sectoral coordination of concerned

organizations to improve communications, identify gaps & redundancies in impacts /adaptation work related to

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POTENTIAL ACTIONS TO BUILD RESILIENCE

4. Expand support for infrastructure climate risk assessments including identification of vulnerability thresholds for different types of infrastructure & standardized tools.

5. Inventory current adaptation strategies & best practices for urban infrastructure, including operations and maintenance; make this information available nationally - keep it updated. 6. Prioritize & make key infrastructure investments

Decision-making that incorporates CC concerns into priority projects must go ahead, building in a margin of safety for

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS



BC Ministry of Environment



Clean Air Partnership



Engineers Canada (PIEVC)

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Federation of Canadian Municipalities

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GTA Regional Municipalities CC Working Group

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Halifax Regional Municipality

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National Roundtable on Environment & Economy

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Toronto Climate Change Science Working Group



Toronto & Region Conservation Authority

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Canadian Standards Association



York University

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Adaptation to a Changing Climate