How to develop

(1)

- rethinking our planning?

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

How to develop

Per Lindroth, Trafikverket

Ylva Löf, Göteborgsregionens

(2)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

•

Approx 1,000 0000 inhabitants in the

functional region

•

There are 65,000 students

•

18% of Göteborg's inhabitants are born

abroad

•

50% of Scandinavia's industrial capacity

is within 300 kilometres

•

The largest port in Scandinavia

(3)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

Objectives and Challenges in

Transport planning

Nationally and

in Göteborg region

(4)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

The most important challenges in the

transportation area in Sweden?

•

Changes in economic structure

•

The age structure and settlement

patterns

•

Good environment (everything from

climate to attractive living environment)

(5)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

Challenges – Göteborg region

•

Globalised transformation

•

Changing climate

•

Growing population

(6)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

Political objectives on national level

The overall objective of the Swedish transport policy goals –

•

An economically efficient, sustainable transport system for people

and enterprises throughout the country

–

The functional objective accessibility

–

The impact objective traffic safety and environment

Growth policy objectives

•

People and businesses throughout the country should be able to

grow and develop through their own efforts.

•

All regions can and will contribute to Sweden's sustainable growth.

(7)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

Political objectives – Göteborg region

•

At the local level we will take responsibility for our part of the regional

structure and we will also support other local governments in their efforts.

Agreement on regional structure…

•

We want to stimulate further population growth and at the same time

make the most of the opportunities presented by further enlargement

of the region

•

We want to strengthen those qualities that lead us to want to live , work

and visit the Göteborg Region

•

We want to create a strong and sustainable regional structure based on

the opportunities of the metropolitan area

•

We want to develop a long-term sustainable infrastructure and an

attractive public transport service

Sustainable growth - Goals and strategies

(8)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

How do we have to rethink in the

long-term planning to meet challenges and

work toward the goals?

(9)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

Dilemma 1:

The need for decisions in several forums

•

A prerequisite for the achievement of a desired

future is that decisions, in the same direction, are

made in several forums

•

Multi-level governance or multi-partner governance?

(10)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

En annan aspekt – klimatutmaningen

bild bort: Ylva

EU:s färdplan för klimat EU:s vitbok för transporter

Klimatmål i den svenska transportsektorn

2030 Mål för transportsektorns utsläpp av klimatgaser -20 procent till 2030 jämfört med 2008

Fossiloberoende fordonsflotta till 2030. Av Trafikverket tolkat som åtminstone 80 procent lägre användning av fossil energi till vägtransporter jämfört med 2004 2050 Mål för transportsektorns

utsläpp av klimatgaser -70 procent till 2050 jämfört med 2008

Transportsektorn ska bidra till det nationella miljökvalitetsmålet för begränsad klimatpåverkan.

Visionen om att Sverige inte ska ha några nettoutsläpp av klimatgaser 2050 innebär även att

transportsektorn utsläpp bör vara nära noll, dvs. -100 procent jämfört med 2008 (eller vilket annat år som helst som har utsläpp).

(11)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

Scenarios: Climate change

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Beslutade åtgärder Klimatmål SE Klimatmål EU

Emissions of greenhouse gases: Expected performance with agreed measures and

Swedish and European objectives on climate change. Index 2004 = 100

Agreed measures

Objectives SE

(12)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

(13)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

“To reach the objectives it will

not be enough with efficient

vehicles, ships and aircrafts not

even with an increased share of

renewable energy and

electrification of road transport.

Meeting the objectives will also

require a change of direction

when it comes to developing

society and infrastructure. "

Energy

efficiency

Renewable

energy

Land-use

planning

and

lifestyles

(14)

www.GRkom.se ©GÖTEBORGSREGIONENS KOMMUNALFÖRBUND

Göteborg region:

We agree…

…that we take joined

responsibility that the regional

structure will be long term

sustainable.

At the local level we will take

responsibility for our part of the

regional structure and we will

also support other local

governments in their efforts.

(15)

The structural picture in local

planning

(16)

•

Transport system

•

Knowledge and awereness of

alternatives

•

Quality of service

Göteborg region objectives for public transport

- K2020: Demanding a mix of actions

(17)

The west rail link

(18)

A number of planned infrastructural investments until 2027.

Agreement on local and state finance 2009 - Followed by

implementation agreements

Partners:

Västra Götalandsregionen, Göteborgs Stad,

Göteborgsregionens kommunalförbund, Region Halland

and Trafikverket

Västsvenska paketet:

A package with infrastructural

investments in west Sweden

(19)

What is in the package?

Västlänken

train tunnel in central Göteborg

Marieholm tunnel

roadtunnel under Göta Älv

Göta älv bridge

central brige for mainly public

transport, walking and cycling

K2020

investments for public transport

Effective

investments for a more efficient

transportsystem

transportsystem, with less environmental

impact and increased road safety,

IT-system in the transportsystem

Mobility management

(20)

Projekten

Project organisation

Västsvenska paketet

(21)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

Dilemma 2:

The socio-economic decision support

targets measures

•

Not the challenges …

•

And not on the functions that are most important to

develop to reach the objectives

–

How to evaluate and balance different regions

challenges and development aspirations?

(22)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

The Swedish governments assignment for an

new national transport plan 2014-2025

– main points

•

Main corridors – capacity

•

Strengthen corridors that are important for

–

Sustainable commuting

–

Important transport links for business and goods

–

Trans-boundary transports

•

All modes of transport

•

Focus on operation and maintenance

•

Priority to the investments and other initiatives that the government has

identified

(23)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

Challenges in the perspective of the

Transport Administration

•

How can we get the four-stage principle more operational? And

attractive?

•

How can we find more cost-efficient measures?

•

Shortcomings and the evaluation/assessment of how important

they are

–

Perceived shortcomings – today and/or in the future

–

Factual shortcomings – today and/or in the future

(24)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

How have we done to evaluate/balance

deficiencies in the transport system?

•

User Groups

•

Identify corridors / nodes as well as their function

•

Evaluation of the corridors importance for different groups of users

•

Statistics and facts

–

Commuting

–

Traffic volumes

–

Population development etc.

•

Has to meet:

–

Political objectives and ambitions

–

Within the economic framework

(25)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

Example:

Corridors in

southern

Sweden

(26)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

Example of evaluation of 2 (total 43)

corridors/nodes

Ranking of

shortcomings

Small

Medium

Large

Sydsverige–Stockholm

:

(Köpenhamn) - Malmö

– Jönköping/Nässjö –

Linköping - (Stockholm)

Diagonal

(Stockholm) –

Enköping – (Borlänge

– Mora/Sälen)

Corridor nr…

5

13

Shortcomings utifrån…

Longdistance freight transport

Shortdistance freight transport

Commuting

Longdistance passenger transport

(eg tourism)

Transboundary transports

Designated industries in the assignement:

Mining industries

Safety

(27)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

Dilemma 3:

How to model an uncertain future?

•

Are our decision models designed to achieve

politically established goals?

•

How does future outlined by the models match a

desired future?

•

Can we model the desired change?

(28)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

"It's not the forecast that is the

desired future - it is the objective

that is the desired future"

(29)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

(30)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

Ecological

sustainability

A good life

Baseline:

Now

•

Radical policies: well-being effects of congestion charges

•

Rethinking Working hours

•

Decision models for executing sustainable transitions

- Seminar, 7

th

november - Göteborg

•

Low carbon transitions for

Gothenburg: potentials and

well-being consequences

•

Re-defining urban progress

Well-being in sustainable cities -

WISE

Research and practice together seeking

knowledge in 5 research studies

(31)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

SAMPERS can genenerate the desired

travel behavoir K2020 (test result)

31

Base forecast 2030

Doubled

congenstion charge

30% shorter traveltime

with public trp

Doubled fuel

cost

Parking fee

80/40/20 kr

Combined

measures

(32)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

Landuse: structural

illustration with car

ownership 2010

Test results with agreed land-use

32

Base forecast 2030

Landuse: structural

illustration

Landuse: structural

illustration, with

lower car ownership

(33)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

Car traffic development – Göteborg region

Biltrafikutveckling i de fasta snitten 1990 – 2011, Index basår 2006

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

År

Index

Kommungräns snittet 28 Fasta punkter Götaälv snittet Citysnittet Centrala stadssnittet

K

älla:

Tr

afi

kk

on

tor

et,

Gö

teb

or

gs

st

ad

(34)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

Dilemma 4:

The inertia of long term planning

•

A necessity and a curse

–

The forecasts again

•

Based on decisions already taken

•

The traffic development on the national level seldom

relevant in the regional/local context

•

The discussion of the desirability is displaced by the debate

on method and underestimation

–

Decisions on old project hard to change

–

Difficulties to handle new trends and behaviors

–

The business economic perspective

(35)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

Rethinking our planning?

- four dilemmas

1. The need for decisions in several forums

2. The socio-economic decision support targets

measures

3. How to model an uncertain future?

4. The inertia of long term planning

(36)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

Tack!

[email protected]

(37)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

Vi utvecklar Göteborgsregionen tillsammans!

(38)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

(39)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

The structural illustration

(40)

How to develop

Helsingfors 29 oktober 2013 Per Lindroth, Trafikverket Ylva Löf, GR

Car ownership

per 1000 inhab.

on kilometer-

squares

(41)

How to develop