Chapter 7
Implementing the Dynamic GTAP model in the RunDynam Software
Ken Itakura, Elena Ianchovichina, Csilla Lakatos and Terrie Walmsley1
1. Introduction
The purpose of this chapter is to introduce the reader to the publicly available software – RunDynam – which is used to carry out the applications presented in Part III of this book. The RunDynam program is based on the GEMPACK suite of software (Harrison and Pearson, 1999), which is specifically designed to solve non-linear general equilibrium models. Other general equilibrium models solved using the GEMPACK software suite include the standard GTAP model and the Monash model of Australia. The RunDynam program has been specially tailored to the needs of the GDyn model and other dynamic models. It offer the user a great deal of flexibility in constructing simulations. It is available from the Centre of Policy Studies at Monash University, Australia.2
Using the RunDynam software, you can examine the data, construct and modify simulations, solve simulations, and examine results. Users who wish to alter the underlying theory of the model will need to acquire additional software from the Centre of Policy Studies at Monash University, Australia. Also for those who wish to make their own aggregations they will have to purchase the GTAP Data Base from the Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University, USA3. Altering the standard model and/or the data aggregation are not discussed in this chapter.
The RunDynam program requires a PC running Microsoft Windows XP or later, with at least 512MB of RAM and at least 1GB of free disk space;
1 The authors would like to thank Anna Strutt and Horacio Santander for their help with the welfare decomposition section of this chapter.
2. http://www.gempack.com.au 3. http://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/
The chapter is organized as follows. Section 2 demonstrates how to install the program and load up the applications. Section 3 shows how to view the data. Section 4 provides an introduction to running simulations. Section 5 examines how to view simulation results. Section 6 outlines the notation used to denote the chapters presenting the applications in Part III of this book.
2. Installing the RunDynam Software and loading up applications
Installing RunDynam
The following steps allow us to install RunDynam:
Double click on the install EXE in the RunDynam CD-ROM.
RunDynam Installation program starts and a Welcome pop up box appears on your screen. Click Next.
You will be asked which directory you wish to install RunDynam. Default destination folder is c:\RunDynam. Click Next.
If you are ready to install, then click Next. Once installation is completed, click Finish.
The RunDynam icon will then appear on your desktop ready for use. Downloading the RunDynam application archive
Once you have installed the RunDynam software you can obtain the applications for this Chapter and the other Chapters in this book, from the GTAP web site (https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/models/Dynamic/applications.asp). Each application is a RunDynam zip file. Download the zip files from the web site and place into the following RunDynam sub-directory c:\RunDynam\archive.
Opening RunDynam
The first step is to open up RunDynam. This is achieved by double clicking on the RunDynam icon on your desk top. If a dialogue box appears to ask if you would like to load a model and simulation from zip archive: click No.
T O toolbar (F have seen menu allo help. The Other file contains Model/D Restoring A the GDyn ingredien using the O A In A d O A The following Once inside R File, Zip, Ta n in other W ows you to c e second too es) looks lik an essential Data page). E g the Ingred At this stage, n model to s nts of this si e following i On the main A drop down ngredients f A “ZIP File to irectory whe OPEN button An informatio g should app RunDynam y asks, View, Windows pro
carry out var olbar (Introd ke a notebook element of t Each label is dients of a S we will use a imulate the e imulation ha nstructions: n menu firs menu will ap from ZIP A o Restore Fr ere you dow n.
on box appe
pear at the to
you will noti Options, Ru ograms. This rious functio duction, Mod k or card ind the simulatio referred to a Simulation a simulation effects of a p ave been sav
st choose: ppear. Move Archive and t
rom” box wi wnloaded the
ars and show
op of your sc ce two sets o un Preference s menu is re ns such as op del/Data, Sim dex. Each of on design. E as a tab. You n which was c productivity ved to a zip Zip | Rest e down in the then click. ill appear. Ch em: Ch7HO ws history of creen: of toolbars at es and Help eferred to as pening, savi m Overview f the pages i Each card is r u click on a t created prev shock on th file and can
tore Ingred e drop down
hoose the fo O3x3_gdyn_
f the ZIP arc
t the top of t p) is similar t s the main m ing, viewing , Closure/Sh in the notebo referred to a tab to go to t viously for Ru he Rest of W n be restored dients from n menu until ollowing file _v3_97.zip, chive. Click he page. The to those you menu. This g data and see
hock, Result ook or card i as a page (i.e the required unDynam. It World (ROW) d into RunDy m ZIP Arc you find Re e from the ar and click o OK. e first u may main eking ts and index e., the page. t uses ). The ynam chive. estore chive on the
A th C sp A A D T C N C:\RunD C:\RunD C L Another infor he files in th Choose the fo pecified doe A confirmatio After the file Details into R The software Click OK. Note that Dynam\HO3 Dynam\HO3
Click the tab Listed at the t rmation box e ZIP archiv ollowing dir s not exist, t on box appea es are unzipp RunDynam n e reminds yo under 3x3\data, 3x3\tabetc, h labeled Mod top in blue s appears and ve. Click OK rectory: C:\R the software ars. Click O ped, you wi now?” Click ou that the r the direc have automa del/Data to should be the d asks you to K. RunDynam\ will create i OK. ll be asked k Yes. restored app ctory you C:\RunDy atically been turn to the M e model. Che o specify the \HO3x3. Cl it for you. C “Do you w plication is n u specified ynam\HO3x n created to s Model/Data p
eck that the
directory yo
lick OK. If t Click Yes.
want to load
now the cur
d three x3\model store the file page. model is gdy ou want to re the directory these Simul rrent applica new fol es. yn.exe. estore y you lation ation. lders, and
A in N data inpu 3. V In Two exam we first l the data f file (gdyn A (extensio files con respectiv and some Also make su ngredients sh Notice again ut files are st Viewing the n this section mples are un ook at how t files themsel n.tab). The T As we saw ab on *.HAR) o ntaining the vely. The hea
e additional
ure you hav hould be as f
that the mod tored in the d
Data
n, we use Ru ndertaken to the data is us lves. The und TABLO file bove, four da one containin parameters ader array fil data require
ve all the dat follows: del (gdyn.ex directory - d unDynam to examine the sed by the un derlying equ is the human ata files are ng the sets a s for the st
le containing d for the dyn
ta ingredien xe) is stored data. look at the G e sets data an nderlying mo uations of the n readable v required by and the othe
andard GTA g the base da namic exten nts in the wh in the direc GDyn model nd the core da odel or TAB e GDyn mod version of the the GDyn m r containing AP model a ata includes sion. hite box in m ctory - mode
l and the asso ata. In each o BLO file and
del are define e executable model: four h g the base da
and the dyn both the stan
middle. The el and the va ociated data of these exam then we exa ed in the TA e file gdyn.ex header array ata and othe namic exten ndard GTAP e data arious files. mples, amine ABLO xe. y files r two nsion, P data
Example T m T coefficien gdyn.tab 1 2 3 Y equations In F File e 3.1: Viewin The TABLO menu. TABm The TABLO nts and equa , there are a . All variab must first . All coeffi have been . In order to these com You will need
s, variables a n TABmate File. You sho
ng the Set D code can be mate opens a file contain ations. In ord number of r bles, coeffic be defined i icients must n previously o assist the u mments are a d to refer to and coefficie (or other ed ould find the
Data.
e viewed by copy of the
ns the essen der for the s rules which m cients, sets, p in the TABL either be rea defined and user of the m always placed the TABLO ents or when itor), select following s choosing V gdyn.tab file ntial element oftware to u must be adhe parameters, LO file. ad from a fil d read; model comme d between tw O file constan n interpreting Search | Fin tatement (F3 View | Main e, and the co ts of the mo understand th ered to. Som and files re le or derived ents have be wo exclamat ntly when se g your result nd from the 3 will repeat n TABLO fi opy may be l odel includi he model eq me of these in eferred to in d from other een added to tion marks. eeking any in ts. e main menu t the search)
ile from the labeled tab1 ng the varia quations set o nclude: the TABLO r coefficient the TABLO nformation a u to find the ): main 1.tab. ables, out in O file s that O file; about word
GTAPSETS # file with set specification #;
This statement defines a file with logical name GTAPSETS. The words between the # #’s are the label given to this logical file name. The name indicates to the user what is contained in the file i.e., set information.
If you now use Search | Find to find Set, you should find a list of set statements, such as: Set
REG # regions in the model #
maximum size 10 read elements from file GTAPSETS header "H1"; The second line of each set declaration defines the set and gives it a name. The third line states that the set should contain no more than 10 elements and is read from header H1 of the file with logical filename GTAPSETS.
If you now use Search | Find to find REG you will see that many of the variables, coefficients and equations are defined over the set REG. You will also see variables defined in terms of the other sets (e.g. TRAD_COMM).
You can now close the TABmate by clicking File | Exit.
Back in RunDynam, you should still be on the page labeled Model/Data. If you look at the white box containing the data files you will see the name of the file corresponding to the logical name GTAPSETS.
File GTAPSETS = C:\RunDynam\HO3x3\data\gdset.har
This tells us that gdset.har is the file, with logical name GTAPSETS, containing the set information.
To open this file highlight the GTAPSETS file in the white box and click the right hand button of your mouse to get a menu. Then select View this file.
O table corr In third to th in the se length 1 character (REG) sh seen betw Y C o Once in View responds to n the table of he size of th cond column 12 in the thi rs. As we kn hould be loca ween the ##’ You can view Click on Con
f sets.
wHAR you w a set.
f sets the firs e data and th n means tha ird column now from th ated under h ’s in the TAB w the regions ntents on the
will see a men
st column re he last colum at the inform means that he TABLO c header H1. T BLO code. s by double e main menu nu bar and a elates to the h mn is a brief mation conta there are 3 code (tab1.t The commen clicking any u bar or click table contai header, the s f explanation ained in the elements w tab, copy of nt in the last ywhere on th k anywhere o
ining the sets
second to the n of what is i header are c which may c f gdyn.tab) t column is th he row label on the data to s. Each row i e type of dat in the set. Th characters. T contain up t the set of re he same com ed header H o return to th in the a, the he 1C The 3 to 12 gions mment H1. he list
Now look at the traded commodities (TRAD_COMM) in this data set. You can now close the header array file by clicking File | Exit.
Example 3.2: Viewing the Core data
Before examining the data let us look again at the TABLO file (tab1.tab, a copy of gdyn.tab).
Choose View | Main TABLO file from the main menu. The core data can be found in the file with logical file name GTAPDATA.
Using Search | Find in TABmate, search for GTAPDATA. You should find the following statement.
File
GTAPDATA # file containing all base data #;
This statement defines a Header Array file with logical file name GTAPDATA. Now let us look at an equation containing some data.
In TABmate, select Search | Find and look for TOTINCEQY. This will take you to the following equation labeled TOTINCEQY:
Equation TOTINCEQY
# This equation determines the change in total income from equity#
(all,r,REG) yqh(r)
= [YQHFIRM(r) / YQHHLD(r)] * yqhf(r) + [YQHTRUST(r) / YQHHLD(r)] * yqht(r);
The first line is the equation name. The second line is a comment providing some information on what the equation does. The third line states that this equation holds for each region r in the set REG (i.e., USA, EU and ROW as seen in Example 1). The rest of the lines define the equation.
for percentage changes or deviations from base case. Here, we are interested in the initial database or the levels coefficients (shown in upper case). We can find out what these coefficients are and how they are calculated by searching the TABLO file. Since all variables and coefficients must be defined prior to use we should be able to find a definition by searching upwards.
Select Search | Find from the main menu of the TABmate and look for YQHHLD. Remember to change the find box to search upwards. This is done by clicking on Back in the box labeled Direction (alternatively you can use CTL-Home to move you back to the beginning of the TABLO file, search from top or gloss). Keep searching (F3 to search again) until you find the following definition and formula for YQHHLD(r):
Coefficient (all, r, REG)
YQHHLD(r) # regional household equity income #;
Formula (all, r, REG)
YQHHLD(r) = YQHFIRM(r) + YQHTRUST(r);
This tells us that YQHHLD(r) is defined as a coefficient and is the income earned on equity by the regional household. It is equal to the sum of two other coefficients YQHFIRM(r) and YQHTRUST(r). This coefficient is often referred to as a derived coefficient as it is not read directly from the database but is derived from other coefficients.
You can now use Search | Find to find YQHFIRM(r) and YQHTRUST(r). You should find the following statements in the TABLO file:
Coefficient (ge 0)(all,r,REG)
YQHFIRM(r) # income of region r from local firms #;
Update (all,r,REG)
YQHFIRM(r) = yqhf(r); Read
YQHFIRM from file GTAPDATA header "YQHF";
Coefficient (ge 0)(all,r,REG)
YQHTRUST(r) # regional income from global trust #;
Y Read Y T as inco YQHH respect If y als Yo Ba containin GTAPDA To mo You sh Lo can eac T YQHTRUST( YQHTRUST These stateme ome earned HLD(r) these tively, in the you scroll up o read from ou can now c ck in RunDy ng the data fi ATA. view this f ouse to get a hould see the
ok for heade n view the d ch of the thre The two param
(r) = yqh from fil ents tell us th by region r e coefficien e file with lo p or down fro
the file GTA close the TA
ynam you sh iles you shou
file highlight menu. Then e following t er YQHF con ata by doub ee regions. R meter files c ht(r); le GTAPDA hat YQHFIR from local nts are read ogical file na om here you APDATA. ABLO file by hould still be uld see the na
t the GTAP n select View table contain ntaining the v ble clicking o Repeat the sa can be viewe ATA heade RM(r) and YQ firms and fr d directly f ame GTAPD u will notice y clicking Fil e on the pag ame of the fi PDATA file w this file.
ning the base
values of equ on the heade ame for head ed in the sam
er "YQHT" QHTRUST(r)
rom the glob from heade DATA. a number of le | Exit. ge labeled M le correspon and click th e data: uity income er “YQHF”. der “YQHT” me way. T"; ) are also co bal trust resp ers “YQHF” f other coeff Model/Data. nding to the l he right han earned from Data should ”. efficients de pectively. U ” and “YQ ficients whic In the white logical file n nd button of m local firms d be availab efined Unlike QHT”, ch are e box amed f your . You le for
4. Running a Simulation
The purpose of this section is for you to gain some hands-on experience at simulating with RunDynam. An increase in total factor productivity in the Rest of World is used to illustrate this. For this purpose we examine the remaining pages of RunDynam. The next two pages, Sim Overview and Closure/Shocks, relate to the elements required to undertake a simulation with the GDyn model. The third page, Results, provides an easy way to view the results of the simulation. The final page, Other Files, lists the data files used in the simulation and informs you as to whether they are updated during a typical simulation.
First, we provide a recipe outlining the basic ingredients required to conduct a simulation using RunDynam. The simulation undertaken here is a productivity shock. Two of the main elements of the simulation have already been discussed in the previous section, these were the Model (gdyn.tab) and the Data. Therefore, the focus here is on the two pages labeled: Sim Overview and Closure/Shocks. We examine the Sim Overview page, the Closure/Shocks page, a base case shock file, a policy shock file and a closure file. Finally, we run the simulation. Simulation Overview Page
Click on the Sim Overview tab on the second level of the toolbar to move to the Sim Overview page.
This page contains a number of important aspects about the simulation, including the label for the starting year, the number of periods being examined, the length of these periods and the solution method. The page should look something like the figure provided below.
Startin Th ma col In t to d Ch Fol per 5 y Fol thr you the sim dif ng from the t e box labele ay assume thi llected. In th the next box determine ho heck that this
llowing this riod may dif years. llowing this ee simulatio u are require e names BAS mulations res fferently to a op and movi ed Start from is is the curr his case we s x labeled Nu ow many per s figure is co is a drop d ffer from 1 y is a list labe ons are under ed to give sim S, BRR and spectively. L avoid writing ing down: m data for y rent year or it tart at year 1 umber of Pe riods you wa orrect. own menu f year. In this c eled Simula rtaken, the b mulation nam d HO3 for th Later when y g over previo year (4 digit t may be the 1997. Check riods for ba ant to examin
for the lengt case, the leng
tion and Sim base case, the
mes to all thr he Base Ca you do more ous simulatio ts) is the firs year corresp k that this say ase case (1 o ne. In this ca th of each p gth of each p m names (3 e base re-run ree of these e ase [B], Bas simulations on results. st year of the ponding to w ys 1997. or 2 digits), se we are loo eriod. In the period, exce 3 Chars). In n and the pol experiments e Rerun [R , you may w
e simulation when the data
, you are req oking at 5 pe
e GDyn mod ept the last o
the GDyn m licy. At this s. In this case R] and Polic want to label . You a was quired eriods. del, a ne, is model stage e, use y [P] these
The three simulations are discussed below:
1. The Base Case simulation represents how we might expect the economy to look without the policy shock (i.e., without the productivity shock). Depending on what we know about the future state of the world economy, this could include our beliefs about population and labor growth rates, or the state of tariff reductions etc. over the simulation period. How to develop a baseline was discussed in Chapter 5.
2. The Base Rerun takes the policy closures and the base case shocks. It is a calibration simulation. If there are any variables which were endogenous in the base case closure and are exogenous in the policy closure the program automatically takes the values of these variables from the base case simulation, and includes them as exogenous shocks to variables in the base rerun simulation. The usefulness of the base rerun simulation is that it allows you to reverse any calibration done in the baseline. For instance in Chapter 5 we exogenized real GDP (qgdp) to ascertain changes in region-wide technological change (afereg) in order to obtain that change in the real GDP. In the base rerun simulation the values for the region-wide technology obtained in the base case are now applied in the base re-run to afereg to endogenizely determine real GDP. If the base re-run has worked correctly, the resulting changes in real GDP in the base re-run should equal those applied in the base case, subject to small differences due to path dependency. The fact that real GDP is now endogenous means that in the policy simulation, real GDP can now respond endogenously to the policy shock.
3. The Policy simulation examines the effects of the policy shock, which is applied in addition to the other base case shocks. The policy shock then interacts with the other changes expected to occur in the world economy. Both simulations are undertaken so that the difference between the two scenarios can be calculated, and hence the effects of the policy shock isolated.
The next step requires us to specify the current working directory: C:\RunDynam\HO3x3\. Check that this is in fact the working directory. If not you can change this by clicking on the
cha Ne of v the Fin ext to t but che Closure/S Now we Cli sim Th that the l ange button. ext you are a variables you e mapping fil nally, you ar trapolation. the solution tton. In the b eck the optio /Shock Page
can proceed ick on the tab milar to the o e table lists t labels in the asked to spec u would like le by clickin e asked to sp . You must a method. If n bottom left h ons (keep the e d to the closu b labeled Clo one provided the shock an first column cify a mappi e to place into ng on the but pecify a solu also include not, automati hand corner e default opt
ure and shoc osure/Shock d below: nd closure fil n of the tabl ng file: GDy o a spreadsh tton labeled ution method automatic ac ic accuracy c click on th tions). Then ks file. k to move to
les for each le relate to th
yn.map. Th heet file for fu
Edit. d. In this cas ccuracy. It sh can be chose he box label click OK.
o the next pag
period of th he informati he mapping f further analys se we use Gr hould appea en by clickin led automat
ge. This pag
e simulation ion provided
file contains sis. You can
ragg: 2-4-6 ar in brackets ng on the Ch tic accuracy ge contains a n. You will n d on the prev a list view steps s next hange y and table notice vious
page: Sim periods. F 2002. Ba shocks ar policy sh If t indicated directory (constitu To han T which ar indicates this case skilled an m Overview For example se case and P re specified i hocks). these are se d in black fo y specified.
ent) file whi view a base nd button on
The shock fil re imposed i what we mi there are fo nd unskilled w. The label e, the first pe Policy, shoc in files (with et up correc font. If any o If any of th ich does not e case shock n the mouse a e contains a in the base ight expect t orecasts for d labor growt ls 2002, 200 eriod starts a ks and closu h extensions
ctly, all the of them are hem are in g exist. file place th and select E list of varia case scenari to happen in the rate of th (qfactsup 07, 2012 and at 1997 and ures, must be .CLS for clo files (with in red then green then t he cursor on dit.
ables and the io. As ment n the world e real GDP g ), shocks to d 2020 are t continues fo e specified fo osure, .BSH extension . n these files
the files exi
the file you
e correspond tioned previo economy dur growth (qgdp
import tarif
the last year or 5 years to
or every peri for base sho
CLS, .BSH do not exis ist, but they
u wish to ope
ding shocks t ously the ba ring the simu p), populatio ffs (tms) and rs of each o the beginni iod. Closure ocks and .PS H, and .PSH st in the wo y refer to an
en, click the
to these vari ase case sce ulation perio on growth (p d export subs of the ing of es and H for H) are orking nother right iables enario od. In (pop), sidies
(txs).4 Fi first simu changes o 4. If there are. inally, time i ulation is fro over a 5 yea are any variabl
is shocked b om the begin ar period. le names you ar by 5 to indica nning of 1997 re uncertain of, ate that a 5 y 7 to the begi
, you can alway
year period i inning of 200 ys go back to th is being simu 02, and all th he TABLO file ulated, henc he shocks re
to find out wha e this fer to
In some cases the shocks are located in separate files (e.g. ENDW002.shk) which are referred to hereafter as the base case shock file. These files can be viewed by selecting File | Open from the main menu in TABmate. If one of these files were missing, Y97_02.BSH would appear in green in the table on the Closure/Shocks page.
The policy shock files are given in the final column of the table on the Closure/Shocks page. Again the policy shock file can be viewed by clicking on the file (AFEREG.PSH) with the
right click and selecting edit.
There are two differences between the policy shock file and the base case shock file:
1. Only the policy shocks in this case a single shock to productivity (afereg) are included, even though in the policy simulation all shocks from both the base case shock file and the policy shock file are imposed.
2. the term ashock is used to shock this variable as compared to the base case shock file where the term ‘shock’ was used. The term ashock stands for additional shock. Thus afereg(“row”) this variable is shocked in the base case and by an additional -5% in the policy simulation in the period 2002 to 2007.
Finally the closure file (POL.CLS) can be viewed by clicking on the file with the right click and selecting edit.
The closure file is used to set out which of the variables are exogenous or fixed and which of the variables are determined endogenously within the model. To close the model, the number of endogenous variables must equal the number of equations; otherwise the model will not solve. In the closure file, there is a list of exogenous variables, followed by the statement “Rest Endogenous”. The file POL.CLS specifies the standard Gdyn closure.
A comparison of the policy and base case closures will reveal that we are calibrating region-wide technological change to target forecasted real GDP.
In o to r An If s Cli Altering A simulatio and time shocks yo the time h of time w shock an need to a it is easy When yo 1 2 order to run run the base n information successful a
ick OK. Not the Simulat As you beco ons. We sugg periods and ou simply ed horizon simp will automati d closure fil alter the shoc
to forget. ou start maki . Rename t simulatio changing . You shou the simul the simulatio case, base r n box will th message wil
tice you have tion
ome more c gest making d then eventu
dit the files w ply edit the s
cally adjust t es yourself. ck to time in
ing your own three letter on overview
these extens uld also edit t lation overv
on begin by rerun and the hen appear te ll appear: e jumped on confident wi small chang ually making we have bee simulation o the closure/s Note that if n the shock fi n simulation extensions w page. This sions will sto the simulatio view page.
choosing Ta e policy simu elling you to
nto the Resul
ith the prog es to current g your own a n examining verview pag /shock page, you alter the iles – the pro
ns you should given to th will stop y ore the resul on descriptio This allows asks | Run B ulations con o “Beginning lts page. gram you w t application aggregations g. To alter th ge. Any chan however yo e length of t ogram does d also: he base, ba ou from ove lts under alte on by clickin s you to wri Base, Base R nsecutively. g simulation( will wish to ns – changing s. To alter th he length of p nges to the le u will have t the time peri not do this a ase rerun an erwriting pre ernative nam ng on edit sim ite a short d Rerun and P (s)”. Click O make your g closures, sh he closures a periods or ex ength or exten to alter/make iods you wil automatically nd policy on evious resul mes. m descriptio description o Policy OK. own hocks, and/or xtend nsion e new l also y and n the lts, as on on of the
simulation which will help you to remember what this simulation was when you come back to it at a later date.
3. It is important to save the ingredients of your simulations.
First you can save the details of the simulation by selecting File | Save simulation details as. Then provide a name for the simulation. These details can then be reloaded at any time by selecting File | Load simulation details and selecting the relevant file. The disadvantage with this is that it only saves the simulations details5, not the ingredients6 themselves, thus if you change an ingredient this will change the simulation.
An alternative method is to zip up the ingredients of the simulation. This is done by selecting File | Save ingredients as Zip archive. We suggest you do this here. Save the ingredients as Example1f.zip. The disadvantage/advantage of this method is that it does not save the results. With all the ingredients and simulation details saved, the results are just a click away. If you wish to keep the results you need to zip them up yourself.
5. Viewing the Results
Results are obtained for each period of the Base Case, Base Rerun and the Policy simulations and can be viewed in a variety of ways. The Results page is divided into two parts. The first section allows you to look at the results for all periods at once; while the second is for viewing individual periods.
Viewing the Results for All Periods.
The first section looks something like this:
5 The simulation details refer to the setup in RunDynam and includes information recorded on the sim overview and closure pages.
There are 1. R re T co 2. T a A S 3. T p v ch Example Th data. Vie the result Cli wh Ne 7 Note that e three parts Results for th erun and the The differenc omparable to The results fo spreadsheet AnalyseGE p preadsheet
The third part eriod-on-per ariable occu hange in tha e 5.1: Viewi e ViewSOL ewSOL is mu ts using View ick on the D hite circle ne ext select the t when using A to this first he base case e policy can ce between t o the output or some peri t or within t program. Si box or the G t relates to st riod) or cum urring during at variable oc ng the Resu program is s uch more ad wSOL you m Difference – xt to the sele style: AnalyseGE you section: , the base re be viewed b the two simu of a compar od(s) or all p the ViewSO imilarly, yo Graph/View tyle. Results mulative7. Ye g that period ccurring betw ults Using V similar to the dept at viewi must first sel Policy v Re ected option
on-year or c u can only view
erun, the pol by selecting ulations show rative static m periods can OL program. ou can see wSOL box. can be displ ear-on-year r d, while cum ween the init ViewSOL.
e program V ing the resul lect the simu erun option n.
umulative re w cumulative re
licy and the one of these ws the effec model. be displayed Clicking th the simulat layed year-on results show mulative resu tial period a ViewHAR us lts than the s ulation you w n. A small bl esults. Selec esults. difference b e options in cts of the po d in the Ana he AnalyseG tion results n-year (or in the percenta ults show the and the perio
sed previous spreadsheet. wish to view lack dot sho
ct year-on-ye
between the the first col licy shock a alyseGE prog GE box start by clicking n the GDyn m age change i e total percen od specified. sly to examin . In order to w. ould appear i ear by clickin e base lumn. and is gram, ts the g the model in the ntage ne the view in the ng on
Ye Th The choi results w available No You are n On fou var col dif sel nee To | Sh Ve the 8. Note: If ear-on-year e choice of s ice of simula will be availab e to view onc ow click on t now in View nce in ViewS ur columns. riable or its d lumn provid fference resu ections need ed to select T view the ye how.. YonY
ery little appe e top right h f you opened th in the Style style at this s ation is how ble, howeve ce in ViewSO the box label wSOL. The s
SOL you wil The first on dimensions, des a short d ults appear d to be made Time series. ear-on-year r Y | Year-on-y ears to chang and corner h he base case sim
box. stage is not im ever importa er if you sele OL. led Graph/V screen will lo ll see a menu ne shows the the third sh description o regardless e once again ... | Show.. P results for th year ge, except y has changed mulation in Ru mportant as b ant. If you s ect either Pol
ViewSol.
ook somethi
u bar and a e variable na hows the num of the variab of the optio inside View Pert | Pertur he policy sim ou will notic d to read “SE unDynam this o
both are ava elect Base C licy or Diffe
ing like the f
table of resu ame, the sec mber of varia ble. You wi ons you se wSOL. To vi rbed Solutio mulation you ce that the p EQ4 Pert Yo option would n ailable from w Case then on erence, all sim
following:
ults. The tab cond display ables in the ll notice tha lected in R ew the polic on8 u need to sele phrase “SEQ onY p.” Ch not be available within View nly the Base
mulations w
ble is divided ys the size o list, and the at the cumul RunDynam.
cy simulation
ect Time ser
4 Diff Cum heck that thi
e to you wSOL. Case will be d into of the e final lative Your n you ries... d” in is has
cha Yo and Yo Yo afe sce Th Cu P.” Yo Example C well suite model co AnalyseG A and the p 9. If you ca anged.9 ou can now v d find qgdp ou can now c ou can also c ereg. Remem enario and in e cumulativ umulative. A ” ou can now e e 5.2: Viewi Cumulative re ed for analys ode (tab file)
GE by select
AnalyseGE w policy for the
annot see this c
view one of th the variable click on Con
heck that the mber that th n the policy s ve results can Again check t
exit from Vie ng the Resu
esults can al sis (see Pears
, the underly ting differen
will load the e final period
click on the sma
he variables for percenta ntents in the e value of th his shock w scenario. n also be vi that the phra
ewSOL. ults Using A
so be examin son, Hertel a ying data and nces, all and
model tab f d (2020) and
all box (next to
by double cl age change i main menu he shock to a ill depend o iewed by se ase in the top
AnalyseGE.
ned in Analy and Horridge d the solution cumulative
file, the cum the initial da o the cross) in th licking on th in real GDP. to move bac afereg was as on the shoc electing Tim p right hand c yseGE. Anal e, 2002). The n file. Open
and then cli
mulative diffe ata base; wh
he very top righ
he variable n . ck to the tab s expected. F ck imposed me series... corner reads lyseGE is a p e program br the cumulat ck on the An ferences betw hich in this ca ht hand corner t name. Move d le of variabl Find and clic
in the base | Show.. Yo “SEQ4 Pert program wh rings togethe tive differenc nalyseGE bu
ween the bas ase is the up to enlarge the s down les. ck on case onY | t Cum hich is er the ces in utton. seline dated screen.
data for p features i Sea On Th ins mo Yo var Cli Th period prece in AnalyseG arch for rorg nce you have
e line numb stances wher ove to that lin ou can now v
riable (left cl
icking on “E e decompos
eding the fin GE you can a
ge, the expec e found rorge
bers are give re the variab ne and the eq view the valu
lick) and the
valuate (sele se options on nal period (i analyze the r cted rate of r e, select the en in red on ble is on the quation. ue of rorge ( en using righ ection or coe n the other i.e., 2017). U esults for ea return. Gloss button
the left han left hand sid
cumulative d ht click to ca eff/variable a hand will a Using the gl ach equation n to see all o nd side and t de of the equ difference) b all up the me at cursor) wi allow you to
loss and eva . For examp occurrences o the highlight uation. Click by placing y enu. ll give you th o decompose aluate/decom le: of that varia
ted lines ind k on line 17 your cursor o he value of r e the equatio mpose able. dicate 754 to on the rorge. on or
sel Yo · On Th rorge Int lab equ par ection. Righ ou will be ask nce selected v is is a decom e(r) = - R - 100 + sro elligent dec bel (TempCo uation are us rt of the equ ht click on ro ked how to d viewhar will mposition of RORGFLEX( 0.0 * LAM orge(r); omposition oeff) to each
sed for label ation - ROR
orge and sele
decompose, l open up an f the equation (r) * [qk MBRORGE(r breaks the e section of th ling purpose RGFLEX(r) ect “decomp select RHS, nd you will o n for rorge. k(r) - 10 r) * ERRR equation up he equation. es. For exam
) * [qk(r
pose all or on intelligent a
obtain the fol
00.0 * KH RORG(r) * according t The coeffici mple 1 e1_RO r) - 100. ne side of thi and first togg
llowing: HAT(r) * * time to the bracke ients from ea ORGFLEX .0 * KHAT is equation” gle position. time]
ets and assig ach section o refers to the T(r) * ti . . gns a of the e first ime]
and e1_LAMBRORGE refers to the second part 100.0 * LAMBRORGE(r) * ERRRORG(r) * time
So this tells us that in NAM qk rises relative to KHAT. Further decomposition will show that in this case qk is 1.66, since the cumulative difference in time and hence 100.0 * KHAT(r) * time is zero.
While intelligent decomposition is usually best, this is not always the case. Try decomposing complete by variable to see the other features of AnalyseGE.
Close AnalyseGE and return to the RunDynam results page. Viewing the Results for Some years.
Example 5.3: Viewing some of the Results using AnalyseGE
In some cases you may not want the cumulative differences for all of the years.
On the results page of RunDynam if you select ‘some’ and then click on AnalyseGE, RunDynam will ask for an rsl file. To obtain an RSL file you will need to cancel and go back to RunDynam.
Sel pre Ru for Viewing T as well a you to e second p Example To look a Fir cas Sec con inc the by Th Fin lect 2002 as erequisites an unDynam wil r 2002 to 201 the Results f This section a as the update examine the art of the Re e 5.4: Viewi at the 2012 u rst select wh se, select Ba cond, select ntaining the cluding any e e GTAPDAT clicking on ird, select th nally click on s the initial y nd click ok. ll then run th 12 which you for Individu allows you to ed data and l GDYNView esults page l ng the Upda updated data hich of the si ase. the output results for errors which TA containin GTAPDAT he label corre n the view b year and 20 he SS job. N u can load u ual Periods. o view the ba og files for t w, GDYNV looks like th ated Data
abase for the imulations y type you wi the variable h may have o ng the updat TA. esponding to utton to view 012 as the en Now when yo up.
ase case and the end of ea Vol and Wel
his.
base case si you would lik
ish to view. es, the Log occurred or A ted database o the period w these resu nd year, the ou select An d policy simu ach period. M lfare results imulation yo ke to view -You can ch file contain Accuracy Su . In this case
you are inte ults. en click ‘ok’ nalyseGE the ulation result Moreover th for individ ou must: - Base Case hoose from ning a log o ummary of e, select the erested in. In ’. Yes, chec ere is an RSL ts for each p his section a dual periods. or Policy. In the Solution of the simul the simulati updated data n this case 20 ck the L file period llows . The n this n file lation ion or abase 012.
The ViewHAR program for viewing header array files is automatically opened. This should look familiar since you have used the same tool to look at the core database.
Exit from ViewHAR by selecting File | Exit.
Release 9 of GEMPACK also makes it possible to undertake post-simulation processing. Hence, in addition to the Solution file and GTAPDATA users now have access to a more detailed updated data file through WELVIEW, GDYNView, TAXRATES and GDYNVol10.
When taking a closer look, you’ll be able to find that in fact GDYNView as well as GDYNVol and TAXRATES are all placed at the end of the TABLO file inserted between the following two statements:
PostSim (Begin); PostSim (End);
Post-simulation processing thus makes it possible to carry out calculations with values of variables and coefficients which depend on previous simulation results within a single tablo file.
GDYNView gathers certain parts of the global data, with important information about certain macro variables and others regarding trade, transport and protection.
Follow the same steps to examine the GDYNView file and the GDYNVol file for selected periods. These files are similar to those in RunGTAP (Pearson and Nin Pratt, 1999), with some minor modifications to include useful data for the GDyn model, such as rates of return and foreign income. The formulas for GDYNView, GDYNVol and WELVIEW are included in the standard GDyn tab file as post-sim processing.
Example 5.5: Viewing the Welfare Decomposition
The welfare decomposition (WELVIEW) results are viewed in the same way as the GTAPView and GTAPVol results. Note however that the simulation will give zero results if time is shocked. Valid results will only appear in WELVIEW when time = 0; i.e., when you undertake the comparative static simulation to create a valid welfare decomposition. Users wanting to
undertake the welfare decomposition for the dynamic simulation should re-run this simulation (CH7HO3x3_gdyn_v35_97.zip) but set automatic accuracy at 90%11 and then refer to Chapter 6 for details on the special closure and shocks used in the baseline.
Below is a summary of the steps required to undertake welfare decomposition simulation:
Re-run the dynamic simulation (CH7HO3x3_gdyn_v35_97.zip) but set automatic accuracy at 90%. Open the results in ViewSOL and leave open for later use.12
Model/Data Page: Change base data to the updated data file from the final year of the base re-run (eg dat-basb-brrr-2020.har)
Sim Overview page: Change labels so as not to over-write your files
- Year and time period (you need just one year, start 2019 and length 1 year)
- Alter File names (WDB, WDR, WDP). Although you will not need all three it is so easy to mistakenly over-write one of the simulations by clicking the wrong button. Closure/Shock page: Change closure file by swapping the following (Remember to save
the new closure under a different name and load into the baseline): - Time variables
swap srorge = rorge ; swap SDKHAT = DKHAT ; swap sqk = qk ;
swap swqh = wqh ;
- Numeraire, e.g.
10 GDYNVOL output is placed in the updated GTAPDATA file, there is no special GDYNVOL file produced. 11 Note higher automatic accuracy assists with ensuring accuracy of the comparative static welfare decomposition simulation. The application CH6HO3x3_gdyn_v35_97.zip and the welfare decomposition of that application Ch6HO3x3_gdyn_v35_97wd.zip can be downloaded from the GTAP website at:
https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/models/Dynamic/applications.asp.
12 Closing the file will not delete it, however you will need to re-open is later and switching between results can be time consuming. An alternative way of loading up other sequences of results is to use time series | load sequence. See
swap psavewld = ps("food","ROW") ;
Closure/Shock page: Change shocks file (again remember to save and load into RunDynam)
- Shock the following variables by the amount from the solution file for the cumulative difference between the policy and the base re-run.
rorge DKHAT qk wqh
- ps for one commodity and region e.g., ps("food","ROW")
- Shock all the policy variables (by the cumulative differences from the dynamic policy simulation)
Run base
Open WELVIEW for the base year to view the welfare decomposition. (Note that if all the welfare results are zero then there is a shock to time and you have made a mistake.) This will give the (more-or-less) correct EV and decomposition. To check you can compare the resulting database, from the comparative static welfare simulation, with the final database from the dynamic simulation. There will be differences however they should be relatively small, less than 0.01% of the values for a simple simulation like this one. If differences are larger than this then try increasing the accuracy of the dynamic and comparative simulations.
6. Book Applications
Several applications are provided with this book and with the RunDynam software. The help for details.
file name containing the application is labeled Ch#_model_v#_##.zip, where Ch# refers the chapter number in this book (e.g. Ch7 refers to the application used in Chapter 7), model refers to the model variant used (e.g., GDyn, Savings or Farm variant etc), v# refers to the tab file version used if relevant (e.g. v3 is the latest version of GDyn.tab at the time of writing) and ## refers to the year of the initial GTAP 5 Data Base used (e.g. 97 is 1997 which corresponds to the GTAP 5 Data Base, as it has a reference year of 1997). These files are available on the GTAP website at: https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/models/Dynamic/applications.asp. Chapter 6 Ch6HO3x3_gdyn_v35_97.zip13 C6HO3x3_gdyn_v35_97wd.zip Chapter 7 Ch7HO3x3_gdyn_v35_97.zip Chapter 8 Ch8_gdyn_r19_95.zip Chapter 9 Ch9_gdyn_r19_95.zip Chapter 10 Ch10_dfarm_95.zip Chapter 14 Ch14_gdyns_34_97.zip Appendix A Ch7HO7x7_gdyn_v31c_97.zip 7. References
Harrison, J. and K. Pearson (1998): “Getting started with GEMPACK: Hands-on Examples” GEMPACK document No. 8, Centre of Policy Studies and Impact Project, Monash University, Clayton, Vic, 3168, Australia.
Pearson, K., Hertel, T. and M. Horridge (2002): “AnalyseGE: Software Assisting Modellers in the analysis of their results” Centre of Policy Studies and Impact Project, Monash University, Clayton, Vic, 3168, Australia.
Pearson, K. and A. Nin Pratt (1999): “Hands-on Computing with RunGTAP and WinGEM to Introduce GTAP and Gempack” Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University, West
