What Ever Happened to MySQL?

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What Ever Happened to MySQL?

Matthew Aslett

Research Manager,

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• Matthew Aslett

– Research manager, data management and analytics – With The 451 Group since 2007

– www.twitter.com/maslett

451 Research

Information Management  Operational databases  Data warehousing  Data caching  Event processing

Commercial Adoption of Open Source (CAOS)

 Open source projects  Adoption of OSS

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• MySQL vs NoSQL vs NewSQL: 2011-2015

– Assessing the competitive dynamic

– Due any day now

– Including market sizing of the three segments

– Survey of 200+ database users

– [email protected]

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– “MySQL was very much the crown jewel of the open source database world.”

– May 2008

– “there are relatively few choices for Oracle's rivals to respond to its ownership of MySQL.”

– May 2009

– “the database market is awash with open source

databases with lightweight architectures targeted at Web applications.”

– April 2011

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– Oracle’s MySQL business faces competition from the

rest of the MySQL ecosystem

MySQL ecosystem

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Survey conducted: December 2009 Sample: 347 open source software users.

MySQL users: 285

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Survey conducted: December 2009 Sample: 347 open source software users.

MySQL users: 285

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Response to Oracle acquisition

Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Total sample: 205

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Rating Oracle’s MySQL ownership

Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Total sample: 205

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– Oracle’s MySQL business faces competition from

NoSQL and NewSQL technologies

NoSQL MySQL NewSQL

ecosystem

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– There is an assumption that NoSQL and NewSQL pose

a direct, immediate threat to MySQL

– We believe the competitive dynamic is more complex

NoSQL MySQL NewSQL

ecosystem

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– 49% of survey respondents abandoning MySQL planned on retaining or adopting NoSQL databases

– only 12.7% said they had actually deployed NoSQL databases as a direct replacement for MySQL

MySQL ecosystem

NoSQL NewSQL

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– 33% of respondents retaining MySQL had considered, tested or deployed NewSQL database technologies

– Approximately 75% of the NewSQL revenue for 2011 is also part of MySQL ecosystem revenue

NoSQL

NewSQL

Competitive dynamic

MySQL ecosystem

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Revenue estimates: 2011

Includes only software and support/subscription revenue.

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Revenue estimates: 2015

Includes only software and support/subscription revenue.

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Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 205

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Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 205 MySQL users: 165

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Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 205

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Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 205 MySQL users: 165

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Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 55 MySQL abandoners

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MySQL replacements

Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 55 MySQL abandoners

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MySQL alternatives

Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 165 MySQL users

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 NoSQL NewSQL MySQL ecosystem Other Other RDBMS Considered/Tested/Deployed %

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NoSQL and MySQL

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Competitive dynamic

– NoSQL database technologies are largely being adopted for new projects that require additional scalability,

performance, relaxed consistency and agility. – Oracle claims no impact from NoSQL.

– Open source adoption under the competitive radar. – Relative immaturity. NoSQL vendors claim 900 paying

customers.

– If 25% of those replaced MySQL that equates to:

– <1.5% of the estimated installed base of Oracle MySQL paying customers.

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NewSQL and MySQL

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Competitive dynamic

– NewSQL database technologies are, at this stage, largely being adopted to improve the performance and

scalability of existing databases, particularly MySQL. – 75% of NewSQL revenue in 2011 came from vendors

that were also considered to be part of the MySQL ecosystem.

– That is expected to decline to 50% by 2015, as new databases begin to find their feet.

– Oracle is responding with additional investment in development of new features for both MySQL and MySQL Cluster.

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Competitive dynamic

– The MySQL ecosystem is now arguably more healthy and vibrant than it has ever been.

– A strong vendor committed to the core product and a wealth of alternative and complementary products. – Oracle and the other MySQL support providers

accounted for 84% of total MySQL ecosystem revenue in 2011, followed by MySQL-aaS providers with 7%.

– MySQL support providers will account for 59% of total MySQL ecosystem revenue in 2015.

– Followed by MySQL-aaS providers with 22%, and clustering/sharding technology providers with 11%.

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Incumbent RDBMS and other

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Competitive dynamic

– The options for MySQL users have never been greater - or more confusing.

– The most common direct replacement for MySQL is PostgreSQL.

– NoSQL and NewSQL have not made a significant impact on the MySQL installed base at this stage.

– But MySQL is no longer the de facto standard for new application development projects.

– NoSQL and NewSQL pose a long-term threat to MySQL’s position as the default database for Web applications, given their use for new development projects.

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• MySQL vs NoSQL vs NewSQL: 2011-2015

– Assessing the competitive dynamic

– Due any day now – Market sizing – Survey results – [email protected] – @maslett – [email protected]

What Ever Happened to MySQL?