Subject: Forecasted Maize Yield Region: Southern Africa
Issuing date: 20
thApril, 2012
This document provides a forecast of expected maize yields in the Southern Africa region at country, province and district level. Forecasts are based on the ECGM crop growth model using radiation and evapotranspiration data as input. The radiation and evapotranspiration data are generated by the Energy and Water Balance Monitoring System (EWBMS) on the basis of hourly Meteosat visual and thermal infrared data.
Significant maize yield shortfalls in the Southern Africa region
Serious maize yield shortages are forecasted in Botswana (-8%) and Lesotho (-12%).
Somewhat smaller but still considerable deficits are expected in South Africa (-7%), Zimbabwe (-9%) and Angola (-5%). In Malawi (+10%) and Namibia (+4%) good yields are expected.
The growing season has been relatively dry in large parts of southern Africa with disappointing maize yields as a result. Figure 1 summarises the expected national maize yields, expressed in terms of the difference relative to the previous five year average (blue) and the 2011 yields (red).
This result is based on all Meteosat data from the start of the growing season up to April 10th. Spatial integration is for the agricultural land use class (figure 4b) within “all growing areas”
boundaries (figure 4a).
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
Difference Yield (%)
Country
Maize Difference Yield Forecast
compared to 5 year average yield compared to 2011 yield
Figure 2: Maize difference yield relative to the previous 5 yr average yield
Figure 3: Maize difference yield relative to the 2011 maize yield
Figure 2 shows a map of the difference yields in %, relative to the average yield in the 5 previous years (2007-2011). The scale runs from -40% (black) to +40% (blue). A large part of the region shows below average maize yields (red), but there are also zones with higher than average yields (green), for example Mozambique. Although national shortfalls reach up to -12%, local deficits may be considerably higher. Figure 3 presents a map of the difference yield relative to 2011. The patterns are similar to figure 2.
METHODOLOGY
Food Assessment by Satellite Technology (FAST) uses the METEOSAT information to drive a crop forecasting system developed by EARS in Delft, The Netherlands. The assessment of crop growing conditions and crop yield forecasts is based on visible and thermal infrared hourly data.
These data are processed in 3 steps:
(1) Hourly METEOSAT data are processed to daily average values of surface temperature, air temperature, global radiation, net radiation, potential and actual evapotranspiration.
(2) Radiation and evapotranspiration data feed a crop growth model, which simulates crop yields pixel by pixel and on a daily basis from the start of the growing season for a period of 120 days.
Figure 4: Agricultural areas (GLC2000).
(3) Pixel by pixel simulated crop yield data are integrated for crop growing areas, countries and districts. Urban areas, forest, water and barren land are excluded. The land use map GLC2000 (http://bioval.jrc.ec.europa.eu/products/glc2000/glc2000.php) was used to discriminate the various land use types. The selected land uses are:
Mosaic Forest / Croplands, Croplands (>50%), Croplands with open woody vegetation, Irrigated croplands as defined in the GLC 2000 legend. For further information visit the website of the Global Land Cover.
CROP
The crop calendar in Figure 1 shows the vegetative period (green), the mid-season period (grey) and the harvesting period (yellow) for the countries in the region. The yield response of the plant to evapotranspiration deficits during the growing season is quantified by the relationship described by Doorenbos & Kassam (1986):
(1-RY) = ky.(1-RE) (1) RY is the relative yield and RE the relative evapotranspiration. Crop growth is assumed to start after the beginning of the crop calendar as soon as the relative evapotranspiration is exceeding 40%.
Figure 5: Maize Crop Calendar for Southern Africa, FAO (1997).
DIFFERENCE YIELDS MAPS
The difference yield (DY) is calculated as the simulated yield at a given point of the growing season in the current year (Y) relative to a corresponding reference yield (Yref):
DY= Y / Yref - 1 (2) Reference yields used in the current report are either (1) the average of the simulated yields in the 5 previous years, or (2) the simulated yield in the previous year, both at the same point of time.
The difference yields in this report pertain to the 10th of April, i.e. the end of the first dekad of April 2012.
DIFFERENCE YIELD TABLES
The following tabulated data are provided:
Difference yield forecasts at country level (table 1)
Difference yield forecasts at provincial and district level for each country (tables 2-12)
The tabulated national crop yield estimates in table 1 and sub-national yield data at province and district level in tables 2-12 are based on estimates for the agricultural areas distinguished in Figure 4.
Table 1: MAIZE YIELD FORECASTS AT NATIONAL LEVEL
SOUTHERN AFRICA
Maize Difference Yield Forecast
12/5yrs 12/11
ANGOLA -5 3
BOTSWANA -8 -11
LESOTHO -12 -13
MALAWI 10 9
MOZAMBIQUE 0 -1
NAMIBIA 4 3
SOUTH AFRICA -7 -9
ZAMBIA -2 -4
ZIMBABWE -9 -6
ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
National, regional or provincial averages are calculated based on the administrative boundary layers from the Global Administrative Unit Layers (GAUL) system. For further information consult
http://www.fao.org/geonetwork/srv/en/metadata.show
LEGAL NOTICE & DISCLAIMER
The crop yield forecasts are issued to the best of our knowledge and the hypothesis that the remaining part of the season will not face additional extreme events.
EARS by is not responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused in connection with your use of the information.
The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative.
CONTACT
EARS Earth Environment Monitoring BV Kanaalweg 1, 2628 EB DELFT, the Netherlands Telephone: +31-15-2562404, Fax: +31-15-2623857 Email: [email protected]
Website: www.ears.nl
REFERENCE
Doorenbos, J., Kassam, A. H. (1986). Yield response to water. FAO irrigation and drainage paper 33. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
CROP GROWING AREAS
FAO crop growing areas (http://www.fao.org/giews)
LANDUSE
Global Land Cover 2000 (http://bioval.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
products/glc2000/glc2000.php)
Table 2: ANGOLA - MAIZE YIELD FORECASTS AT PROVINCIAL LEVEL
ANGOLA
Difference Yield (%)
12/5yrs 12/11
BENGO 9 8
DANDE 8 8
BENGUELA -26 -19
CAIMBAMBO -32 -27
CUBAL -27 -12
CUANDO CUBANGO -10 -10
CUCHI -12 -5
MAVINGA -10 -21
MENONGUE -10 -2
RIVUNGO -6 -16
CUANZA SUL -3 3
CUNENE -2 8
CAHAMA -8 9
CUANHAMA 0 3
CUROCA -11 1
CUVELAI 0 8
NAMACUNDE -7 -8
OMBADJA -2 13
HUAMBO -17 -8
CAALA -16 -8
HUAMBO -18 -8
HUILA -4 6
CACONDA -17 -15
CALUQUEMBE -15 -10
CHIBIA -6 8
GAMBOS -9 4
JAMBA -4 6
KUVANGO -2 5
MATALA 11 21
QUILENGUES -13 -10
QUIPUNGO -4 2
LUNDA NORTE 6 3
LUNDA SUL -6 1
NAMIBE -4 3
VIREI -4 5
UIGE 1 1
Table 3: BOTSWANA - MAIZE YIELD FORECASTS AT PROVINCIAL LEVEL BOTSWANA Difference Yield (%)
12/5yrs 12/11
CHOBE -7 -2
KGATLENG -11 -10
KWENENG -12 -17
NORTH EAST -7 -7
SOUTH-EAST -8 -17
SOUTHERN -12 -23
Table 4: LESOTHO - MAIZE YIELD FORECASTS AT PROVINCIAL LEVEL LESOTHO Difference Yield (%)
12/5yrs 12/11
BEREA -25 -27
BUTHA BUTHE -12 -11
LERIBE -13 -13
MASERU -16 -16
MOKHOTLONG -10 -11
THABA TSEKA -5 -7
Table 5: MALAWI - MAIZE YIELD FORECASTS AT PROVINCIAL LEVEL MALAWI Difference Yield (%)
12/5yrs 12/11
CENTRAL REGION 15 10
DEDZA 16 12
DOWA 9 4
KASUNGU 30 23
LILONGWE 10 9
MCHINJI 13 3
NKHOTAKOTA 15 -2
NTCHEU 3 3
NTCHISI 9 7
NORTHERN REGION 6 5
CHITIPA 6 8
KARONGA -1 5
MZIMBA 6 5
RUMPHI 12 13
SOUTHERN REGION 4 8
BLANTYRE 5 13
CHIKWAWA 6 15
CHIRADZULU 0 3
MACHINGA 4 5
MANGOCHI 11 13
MULANJE -3 -2
PHALOMBE -1 6
ZOMBA 6 13
Table 6: MOZAMBIQUE - MAIZE YIELD FORECASTS AT PROVINCIAL LEVEL
MOZAMBIQUE Difference Yield (%) MAJUNE 18 11
MANDIMBA 11 11
12/5yrs 12/11 MARRUPA 15 11
CABO DELGADO 0 9 MAUA 14 12
NAMUNO -3 8 MAVAGO 9 0
GAZA -4 -8 MECULA 6 7
CHICUALACUALA -6 -11 METARICA 6 5
CHIGUBO -6 -11 MUEMBE 11 7
MABALANE -5 -8 N'GAUMA 31 28
MASSANGENA -4 -2 SANGA 9 4
MASSINGIR 11 -1 SOFALA 3 2
INHAMBANE -8 -10 CHIBABAVA 1 4
MABOTE -12 -11 MACHANGA 3 -1
MANICA -2 2 TETE -5 -4
GURO -7 -6 ANGONIA 0 11
MACHAZE 1 7 CAHORA BASSA -8 -10
MANICA -5 -5 CHANGARA -6 -7
MAPUTO 5 -8 CHIFUNDE -4 0
MAGUDE 7 -6 CHIUTA -1 1
MOAMBA 2 -11 LUENHA -3 3
NAMPULA 2 6 MAGOE -10 -8
ERATI -7 6 MARAVIA -1 1
MECONTA 2 7 MOATIZE 4 4
MECUBURI 0 16 TSANGANO -2 8
MOGOVOLAS 0 0 ZUMBU -15 -16
MOMA 5 7 ZAMBEZIA 7 11
MURRUPULA 3 0 GILE 6 5
RIBAUE 4 3 ILE 9 12
NIASSA 13 9 MILANGE 0 8
LICHINGA 17 13
Table 7: NAMIBIA - MAIZE YIELD FORECASTS AT PROVINCIAL LEVEL
NAMIBIA Difference Yield (%)
12/5yrs 12/11
HARDAP GIBEON -10 -44
KARAS 4 -54
KARAS 12 -61
KHOMAS 11 -19
WINDHOEK RURAL 11 -20
KUNENE -10 -9
OHANGWENA 4 -1
ENDOLA 1 2
ENGELA 0 2
OMULONGA 10 -2
ONGENGA 3 6
OMUSATI 1 12
ANAMULENGE 3 17
ELIM 8 15
ETAYI 11 15
OGONGO 0 9
OKAHAO 1 6
OKALONGO -3 7
ONESI -1 12
OTAMANZI -1 -1
OUTAPI -1 19
TSANDI -4 17
OSHANA 6 4
OKATANA 5 8
OKATYALI 12 0
OMPUNDJA 0 7
OSHAKATI WEST 3 4
UUVUDHIYA 1 3
OSHIKOTO 11 10
OMUNTELE 11 17
OMUTHIYAGWIPUNDI 8 7
ONAYENA 10 4
ONIIPA 16 1
ONYAANYA 6 7
Table 8: SOUTH AFRICA - MAIZE YIELD FORECASTS AT PROVINCIAL LEVEL
SOUTH AFRICA Difference Yield (%)
12/5yrs 12/11
EASTERN CAPE AMATOLA DISTRICT COUNCIL -2 0
KEI DISTRICT COUNCIL -2 -2
STORMBERG DISTRICT COUNCIL 5 5
WESTERN DISTRICT COUNCIL 5 3
WILD COAST DISTRICT COUNCIL -9 -14
FREE STATE -13 -17
BLOEM AREA DISTRICT COUNCIL -19 -30
EASTERN FREE STATE DISTRICT COUNCIL -12 -16
GOLDFIELDS DISTRICT COUNCIL -18 -25
NORTHERN FREE STATE DISTRICT COUNCIL -15 -18
GAUTENG -7 -5
EASTERN GAUTENG SERVICES COUNCIL -8 -6
JOHANNESBURG METROPOLITAN COUNCIL -2 -2
LEKOA/VAAL METROPOLITAN COUNCIL -19 -21
PRETORIA METROPOLITAN COUNCIL -5 0
WESTERN GAUTENG SERVICES COUNCIL -5 0
KWAZULU-NATAL -4 -4
ILEMBE REGIONAL COUNCIL 2 3
INDLOVU REGIONAL COUNCIL -1 -1
UGU REGIONAL COUNCIL -5 -8
UMZINYATHI REGIONAL COUNCIL -24 -22
UTHUKELA REGIONAL COUNCIL -3 -4
UTHUNGULU REGIONAL COUNCIL 2 2
ZULULAND REGIONAL COUNCIL -5 -7
MPUMALANGA -10 -12
EASTVAAL DISTRICT COUNCIL -12 -14
HIGHVELD DISTRICT COUNCIL -7 -6
LOWVELD ESCARPMENT DISTRICT COUNCIL -1 -7
NORTHERN CAPE -43 -53
BENEDE ORANJE DISTRICT COUNCIL -83 -89
DIAMANTVELD DISTRICT COUNCIL -31 -43
NORTHERN PROVINCE 0 -3
NORTH-WEST -11 -15
BOPHIRIMA DISTRICT COUNCIL 0 -3
CENTRAL DISTRICT COUNCIL -6 -14
SOUTH AFRICA Difference Yield (%)
12/5yrs 12/11
RUSTENBURG DISTRICT COUNCIL -12 -15
WESTERN CAPE -29 -31
BREEDE RIVER DISTRICT COUNCIL -10 -15
OVERBERG DISTRICT COUNCIL -32 -26
SOUTH CAPE DISTRICT COUNCIL -3 -23
WEST COAST DISTRICT COUNCIL -65 -60
WINELANDS DISTRICT COUNCIL -47 -46
Table 9: ZAMBIA - MAIZE YIELD FORECASTS AT PROVINCIAL LEVEL
ZAMBIA Difference Yield (%)
12/5yrs 12/11
CENTRAL -2 1
CHIBOMBO -4 -1
KABWE -3 3
KAPIRI-MPOSHI 9 7
MKUSHI -3 0
MUMBWA -1 1
SERENJE -8 1
COPPERBELT 7 9
NDOLA 3 3
EASTERN 0 -2
CHADIZA 0 -2
CHAMA -3 6
CHIPATA -1 -10
KATETE -4 -6
LUNDAZI 7 8
NYIMBA 5 5
PETAUKE -1 -3
LUAPULA 9 8
LUSAKA -8 -12
CHONGWE -7 -10
KAFUE -9 -18
LUANGWA -10 -11
NORTHERN -1 2
CHILUBI -14 -14
CHINSALI -2 0
ZAMBIA Difference Yield (%)
12/5yrs 12/11
ISOKA 1 4
MBALA 20 16
MPIKA -6 0
MUNGWI 3 8
NAKONDE -1 -9
NORTH-WESTERN -1 -9
SOUTHERN -4 -8
CHOMA 5 -3
GWEMBE -6 -12
ITEZHI-TEZHI -4 -8
KALOMO -2 -5
KAZUNGULA -4 -6
LIVINGSTONE 4 2
MAZABUKA -12 -19
MONZE -8 -14
NAMWALA -3 -5
SIAVONGA -3 -13
SINAZONGWE 1 -4
WESTERN -2 -6
Table 10: ZIMBABWE - MAIZE YIELD FORECASTS AT PROVINCIAL LEVEL ZIMBABWE
Difference Yield (%)
12/5yrs 12/11
MANICALAND 0 1
CHIPINGE -13 -7
MAKONI -1 -4
MUTARE 1 6
NYANGA 3 1
MASHONALAND CENTRAL -13 -11
CENTENARY -14 -12
GURUVE -13 -12
MAZOWE -13 -13
MOUNT DARWIN -15 -12
RUSHINGA -8 -7
SHAMVA -10 -7
